NYRaider Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Two other long-term bets that I like: Matt Rhule, COY (+1,200): The Panthers are currently 3-1 with upcoming games against the Eagles, Vikings, Giants, Falcons, and Patriots. With the way their defense has played I could see them starting off 8-1 and potentially finishing with 12-13 wins. If they do I think Rhule has a very legitimate chance of winning COY. Matt Stafford, MVP (+1,200): The loss to the Cardinals hurt his case a little bit, especially with how well Kyler is playing. But the Rams are still sitting at 4-1 with the 27th easiest schedule for the rest of the season and Stafford is on pace for 5,000 yards and 40+ TD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Najee Harris, Ty'Son Williams, and Austin Ekeler all eclipsed 25+ receiving yards against us. Our defense is extremely banged up coming into the game this week and we've allowed QB's to extend plays a lot this year, think Williams will get a ton of touches as a security blanket for Fields. My only hesitation here is a skepticism that Fields will rely on checkdowns in this game. Bears RBs haven’t seen more than 2 combined receptions in any Field start yet, and he hardly utilized the position at OSU iirc. Fwiw I’m also back pedaling on the Mike Davis under props. With the Falcons missing so many weapons, they may rely heavily on the ground game. Not worth the risk there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: My only hesitation here is a skepticism that Fields will rely on checkdowns in this game. Bears RBs haven’t seen more than 2 combined receptions in any Field start yet, and he hardly utilized the position at OSU iirc. I feel you on that, one thing that does work in your favor is that Gus Bradley's scheme is based on bend but don't break and gives up a lot of looks in the flat. Basically every team we've played this year has looked to attack us with the short, quick passing game. Here are the passing charts against the Raiders through the first 4 games: Justin Herbert: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/justin-herbert/HER031169/2021/4/pass Lamar Jackson: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/lamar-jackson/JAC323395/2021/1/pass Big Ben: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/ben-roethlisberger/ROE750381/2021/2/pass Jacoby Brissett: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/jacoby-brissett/BRI516391/2021/3/pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Fwiw I’m also back pedaling on the Mike Davis under props. With the Falcons missing so many weapons, they may rely heavily on the ground game. Not worth the risk there. The Jets have allowed 100+ rushing yards every game so far this season. And it's unlikely to be a shootout where the Falcons have to abandon the run game. In addition to the Falcons missing some of their top WR's I think the fact the game is in London will play a huge factor. Both teams had to travel half way across the world for the game and they both have young coaching staffs. I could see both teams coming in with pretty conservative game plans in an attempt to avoid mistakes/turnovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 DeVante Parker ruled out. Kinda bummed, would’ve loved a cheap win where he’s active but doesn’t play or starts but is a decoy. Oh well, should be good news for the Gesicki prop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Ugh backed the wrong side in the UK game - what a horrible game plan by NYJ OC Lafleur (inside runs with Carter early, and short passes), and a terrible game by Zach Wilson (like worst game of week barring Davis Mills carnage level bad). Crowder was a bad call altogether, Davis is clearly the alpha there. Only good news is the Davis props will remain low, but going to have to account for Lafleur's bad management. On to the regular slate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said: DeVante Parker ruled out. Kinda bummed, would’ve loved a cheap win where he’s active but doesn’t play or starts but is a decoy. Oh well, should be good news for the Gesicki prop. Gesicki & Waddle for sure.. Also makes TD props for MIA guys who are usually secondary more interesting too. EDIT: Damn, every Dolphin from Mack Hollins on up the depth chart is +450 or better. That's too thin. Oh well. Edited October 10, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indifference Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Just now, SaveOurSonics said: DeVante Parker ruled out. Kinda bummed, would’ve loved a cheap win where he’s active but doesn’t play or starts but is a decoy. Oh well, should be good news for the Gesicki prop. took that James robinson prop at 61 think he’ll crush it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 I meant to post this earlier but I love buffalo tonight KC defense is very bad. Bottom 5 of the league. Discombobulated. No edges and Chris Jones on the outside hasn't worked out. It negates one of their strengths. Buffalo has a top 5 defense and is very strong on every level. No real weaknesses anywhere. Super complete defense and team overall Buffalos offense and KCs defense are comparable (elite qbs, elite weapons, elite scheme that attacks the teams deep and opens up space everywhere) but buffalo has such a massive advantage on defense that I like them to win outright...which is why I am going 80% +3 and 20% on the ML Other games I like: Den -2 with teddy. Low scoring game between two mostly even matched teams and I trust teddy a lot more than ben Jags +5 Over GB/Cin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Some of my bets this week: Saints -2.5, Titans -4, Broncos -1.5, Bills ML, PHI/CAR U 46, NO/WAS U 43.5 Waddle O 55, Mixon, U 46, Miles Sanders U 48, C Kirk O 42 Parlays: Saints, LAC, AZ, Packers Bucs, Packers, Saints, Cowboys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, indifference said: took that James robinson prop at 61 think he’ll crush it Hit this within his first 3 carries (didn’t see exactly which one it was). ✅ Easy money. This line felt a good 10-15 yards lower than it should’ve been. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indifference Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Hit this within his first 3 carries (didn’t see exactly which one it was). ✅ Easy money. This line felt a good 10-15 yards lower than it should’ve been. good call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Gesicki misses by 2 yards 🥲 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Won $2,000 off a $20 parlay, let's go 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 (edited) 37 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Gesicki misses by 2 yards 🥲 That's rough - but also the part about getting in early if you like the plays, too. I got Gesicki at O40.5 so I'll take it lol. Same with Shenault. Good process & thinking, just didn't get there. Happens, I'd take that any day vs. TAM again, that's a 65-70 percent play IMO. On 10/8/2021 at 12:51 AM, Broncofan said: OK so yardage & reception props are out, so let's go: ATS / ML / RACE Props (mentioned above for full writeup) NYJ ML +130, RACE to 20/25/30 0.6U each (2.8U) PIT ML +110 JAX +4.5 -105 CIN/GB U51 -105 Stake - 5.8U EARLY UK game Corey Davis O4.5 catches +125, O58.5 yards -110 - same principle as last week. With ATL's D, even more likely to get 8-10 targets, and 6-7 catches, 80-100 yards, and a TD. Sign me up Jamison Crowder O52.5 yards - his O4.5 catch prop is -160, so will just take the yards. ATL's pass D is horrible, Zach Wilson will attack the ATL D with these 2 guys. Zach Wilson O1.5 TD's +115 - can't believe I get to run back this prop at +money again. It's not +165 like last week, but the same principle applies. Sign. Me. Up. Stake - 4U SUN REG Games Trevor Lawrence O1.5 TD +100 - 2U play - it's the TEN D. This is ridiculously good. Lawrence has good chemistry with Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and he'll have Dan Arnold ready to play a full set of plays. I'm tempted to go 4U (my max), TBH. Only way this fails is if Trevor gets hurt, or there's insanely bad luck (DPI at end zone, tackled at 1 etc.). I think JAX scores at least 3 TD's here, and could be 4 TBH. I see 2 by air as a 65-70 percent probability, even money is a massive gift. Laviska Shenault O57.5 receiving -110, ?O5.5 catches (not yet out, O4.5 -160) - 2U play for each (EDIT: O5.5 never came out, lucky for me)- there is no way he should be this low. He's likely going to be their #1 WR with a full route tree vs. TEN. Think Crowder NYJ volume vs. them, but with Corey Davis chunk play potential. This is an easy 2U play. The O4.5 catch prop is -160, so I'm waiting to get +money on O5.5 catches. Only way this goes south is injury IMO. Dan Arnold O2.5 catches +150, 022.5 -110 - wow. No TD props are out but I’ll take at +300 or better. He's a RZ target for sure, and Urban Meyer loves to pepper the TE. All over this with 10 more days after getting 40 percent snap count with 3 days on team and no live practice time. Huge value play. Antonio Brown O58.5 yards -110 - the catch prop is -4.5 -160, so I'll likely take a dive on plus money on 5.5 catches too. AB is the preferred security blanket until Gronk is back, and he would have had a massive day had he not lost ball in lights and then dropped a 40 yard TD on consecutive plays. Want the plus money, so I'll take the yards and double up with +money on catches. Mike Gesicki O40.5 yards (EDIT: UK losses meant I didn't it, O4.5 +money never came up) -110 - same deal as last week, and the game script will be even more pass heavy. O3.5 catches is -150 right now, will be tempted to go +money with O4.5 and double up just like AB. Jaylen Waddle O56.5 yards - Tampa can be beat with chunk plays - and I think most of their attention will be on Devante Parker. Waddle's game changing speed and YAC ability are huge problems for TAM's injured secondary. Don't get me wrong - I think Tampa wins going away - but garbage time applies here. Ja'Marr Chase O64.5 yards - This number is suppressed because of GB's pass D numbers - but with their top CB Jaire Alexander out (or very hurting), this is an easy call to hit Chase's yardage total. If Tee Higgins is out, I'll also want Tyler Boyd's O54.5, but I can wait on him until we know if Higgins is playing or not. De’Andre Swift O4.5 catches +115 - gamescript and matchup flows to Swift. Plus money I’m back in again. Justin Jefferson O6.5 catches +120 - with a hurting Cook this again is 60+% prob so sign me up at plus money. Darnell Mooney O4.5 catches +120 - again about the problem LV's D has with pass coverage. Plus money makes this so tasty. TD props - Dan Arnold at 0.8U / 0.4 2+ if it's +350 or better (not yet out), Justin Fields same stake if it's +250/+2500 or better. Stake (assuming Arnold & Antonio Brown & Gesicki catch props come out and I take them) - 14u for props, and 2.4U for the 2 TD props (Arnold/Fields) Total Sunday Stake - 27.2U No yardage/catch props on Diontae Johnson but I'm very interested here (EDIT: My UK losses meant I couldn't increase my stake, so no bet - too bad, would have won). I may have to reduce my Shenault catch/yardage stake to 1U each because I'm already at just over 25U with the above plays and haven't counted Swift/Jefferson in there, I like to stick to a 20U max, I may go 25, but that's the max - so Shenault likely becomes a 1U play x2, which fits in Diontae Johnson (and I'm already counting Arnold) So my tally for Sunday without the late slate; considering how I literally went 0-for-UK game for 6.5U, I will absolutely take the early game results: ATS / RACE WEEK 5: 2-2 ATS (PIT +105 ML, CIN-GB under51.5 win - 105, NYJ ML loses badly, as does JAX +4.5) - EVEN RACE - 0-1, -1.5U Just added LAC +100 ML live now that they are down 10-7. PLAYER PROPS (PENDING LATE / SNF games): Player Props - 9-7 (Wilson O1.5, Lawrence O1.5 2U <man bad breaks there, had 2nd TD's twice but missed guys>, Davis O4.5, O52.5, Crowder O51.5 & Waddle O51.5 all lose; Shenault O57.5 2U (whew) & Gesicki O40.5 barely win, while Dan Arnold O2.5 +150 & O23.5, AB O58.5, Chase O64.5, Jefferson O6.5 +125 and Swift O4.5+125 all win. Net - +2.4U profit so far with the 3 plus money props. Still have Mooney O4.5 +125 left in the late slates, will look at SNF/MNF later. TD props - Fields was +150 for a TD, so never took it. I took Arnold at 0.8/0.4 at +400 / +6600, and had 3 EZ targets....sigh. I'll take those odds. Net -1.2U. No TD props for this late slate. 2021 - Week 1 - Week 5 without late / SNF / MNF : ATS 16-10; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.0U profit Player props - 44-38, +6.7U TD - 5-13, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +23.2U so far Net balance: +52.9U profit for the year (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 - +12.2U Week 5 not including late/SNF/MNF - 0.2U) Edited October 10, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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