Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

46 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That's rough - but also the part about getting in early if you like the plays, too.   I got Gesicki at O40.5 so I'll take it lol. 

Very true. Though I can only imagine what the line went up to once Parker was announced out. His last catch also went for 0 yards which is wildly unfortunate. 

 

[SaveOurSonics]

58 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Won $2,000 off a $20 parlay, let's go

Love that. What was it? 

I’ll need Ravens to win to hit on my 4-leg ML parlay. 

I got destroyed in my 5-leg teaser this week 😂

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Love that. What was it? 

I’ll need Ravens to win to hit on my 4-leg ML parlay. 

I got destroyed in my 5-leg teaser this week 😂

Falcons (-2.5)

Buccaneers (ML)

Titans (-4.5)

Vikings (ML)

Steelers (ML)

Packers (-2.5)

Patriots (ML)

Saints (-2.5)

Eagles (ML)

[11sanchez11]

6 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

Some of my bets this week:

Saints -2.5, Titans -4, Broncos -1.5, Bills ML, PHI/CAR U 46, NO/WAS U 43.5

Waddle O 55, Mixon, U 46, Miles Sanders U 48, C Kirk O 42

Parlays: 

Saints, LAC, AZ, Packers

Bucs, Packers, Saints, Cowboys

+665 parlay hit

+332 parlay hit

[Broncofan]

On 10/10/2021 at 4:56 PM, Broncofan said:

 

 

So my tally for Sunday without the late slate; considering how I literally went 0-for-UK game for 6.5U, I will absolutely take the early game results:

ATS / RACE WEEK 5:

2-2 ATS (PIT +105 ML, CIN-GB under51.5 win - 105, NYJ ML loses badly, as does JAX +4.5) - EVEN

RACE - 0-1, -1.5U

Just added LAC +100 ML live now that they are down 10-7.

PLAYER PROPS (PENDING LATE / SNF games):

Player Props - 9-7 today, 1-3 from TNF (Wilson O1.5, Lawrence O1.5 2U <man bad breaks there, had 2nd TD's twice but missed guys>, Davis O4.5, O52.5, Crowder O51.5 & Waddle O51.5 all lose; Shenault O57.5 2U (whew) & Gesicki O40.5 barely win, while Dan Arnold O2.5 +150 & O23.5, AB O58.5, Chase O64.5, Jefferson O6.5 +125 and Swift O4.5+125 all win.

Net - +2.4U profit today so far with the 3 plus money props.  

Still have Mooney O4.5 +125 left in the late slates, will look at SNF/MNF later.

TD props - Fields was +150 for a TD, so never took it.  I took Arnold at 0.8/0.4 at +400 / +6600, and had 3 EZ targets....sigh.   I'll take those odds.   Net -1.2U.    

No TD props for this late slate.  

 

2021 - Week 1 - Week 5 without late / SNF / MNF :

ATS 16-10; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.0U profit

Player props - 45-39, +6.7U

TD - 5-13, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +23.2U so far 

Net balance:  +52.9U profit for the year

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 not including late/SNF/MNF - 0.2U)

 

Another set of games, another even-steven performance for posted picks.

Live bet of LAC +100 - Win.    Prior bet for Mooney O4.5 rec - Loss (didn't need the pass game). 

Updated as above.

I did live bet LAC +500 for 1U when they went down 42-41 on the missed XP, just felt like it - but I won't count it in the tally.

It does give me enough courage to make 3 more props and 1 ATS play though for SNF:
 

BUF +3

Mahomes O19.5 rushing yards

Allen O33.5 rushing yards (just got in b4 game time looking at the rain)

Moss O8.5 rushes

 

 

2021 - Week 1 - Week 5 without SNF / MNF :

ATS 17-10; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.0U profit

Player props - 45-39, +5.7U

TD - 5-13, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +23.2U so far 

Net balance:  +52.9U profit for the year

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 not including SNF/MNF - 0.2U)

 

No TD props - BOL!

Edited October 12, 2021 by Broncofan

[DreamKid]

On 10/8/2021 at 11:06 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Mac Jones u253.5 pass yards -114 - Jones has hit the over in 3 of 4 games this year, so why the under? It's fair to expect the Texans offense to struggle (lowest O/U of the week, Mills O/U 187 pass yards) which means this game should most closely resemble the Patriots game at the Jets a few weeks back. It's the only game all season Jones hasn't exceeded 30 attempts and/or 200 pass yards. Considering the state of the OLine, I'd also expect most of those attempts to be quick attempts served as an extension of the run game. Jones' O/U completions is 23.5 and he hasn't hit the over on this number with fewer than 29 completions this season. 

 

On 10/8/2021 at 11:06 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Kadarius Toney O50.5 rec. yards -114 - Crazy to me that this line is higher than Mooney's, but that's besides the point. With Shepard and Slayton ruled out, Toney should once again play the role that saw him net 9 targets for 78 yards last week. This week, he gets an even worse Dallas defense that will likely deploy shutdown corner Diggs on Golladay. Even with a poor aDOT, I'd expect a volume game of 7 catches for 60 yards here. 

 

On 10/8/2021 at 11:49 PM, DreamKid said:

Like both of these plays, but I'm most confident in Toney. Can see them force feeding him again to see what they have. Cowboys should score a decent amount too. So DJ will be throwing.

Knew these would come in. Hope you won some money buddy.

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Another set of games, another even-steven performance for posted picks.

Live bet of LAC +100 - Win.    Prior bet for Mooney O4.5 rec - Loss (didn't need the pass game). 

Updated as above.

I did live bet LAC +500 for 1U when they went down 42-41 on the missed XP, just felt like it - but I won't count it in the tally.

It does give me enough courage to make 3 more props and 1 ATS play though for SNF:
 

BUF +3

Mahomes O19.5 rushing yards

Allen O33.5 rushing yards (just got in b4 game time looking at the rain)

Moss O8.5 rushes

 

 

Quote

2021 - Week 1 - Week 5 without SNF / MNF :

ATS 17-10; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.0U profit

Player props - 44-39, +5.7U

TD - 5-13, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +23.2U so far 

Net balance:  +52.9U profit for the year

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 not including SNF/MNF - 0.2U)

 

No TD props - BOL!

Well as badly as Sunday started with UK game 0-5 and 6.4U loss, it ends with a clean sweep on 1 ATS & 3 player props - and only Moss O8.5 carries was a sweat until the final drive, Mahomes & Allen rush props hit early, and BUF +3 was easy $$.   

Final tally for Week 5 not including MNF:

ATS - 4-2, 2.0U profit

RACE - 0-1, -1.5U loss

Player props - 12-8, +5.1U profit

TD props - 0-1, -1.2U loss

 

2021 - Week 1 - Week 5 without MNF :

ATS 18-10; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.9U profit

Player props - 47-39, +9.4U

TD - 5-13, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +23.2U so far 

Net balance:  +57.5U profit for the year

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 not including MNF - +4.4U)

Edited October 11, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For MNF, a few plays already stand out:

Marquise Brown O4.5 catches +120 / O55.5 receving yards -110 - Indy is giving up a ton of catches and yards to the #1 WR.   As long as he doesn't drop TD's and chunk plays (!!!DET!!!!), he should be good on both counts.

Mark Andrews O4.5 catches +140 - see above

Jonathan Taylor O55.5 rushing. yards, O12.5 receiving yards - BAL is a good run D, but this is just too low.  Even with no Quentin Nelson, we know Indy is committed to the run.  Where the BAL D is also vulnerable - RB receiving yards.  I like taking both (the combined prop is 80.5, which is silly to take a higher number IMO).  

Michael Pittman O4.5 catches +110, O53.5 receiving yards - I know BAL is very good against the pass, but Pittman is going to soak up 10+ targets a game.   Injury's the only way I see him missing the catch totals, and I think he can get at least 1 chunk play to hit the O53.5 pretty easily.

 

I also have 1 longshot TD prop, and I'm surprised that it's still this high after last week:

Mo Alie-Cox - +650 / +10000 2+ at 0.8U/0.4U.    I know, I know, he had 2 last week - but that alone should have dropped him to +350 or +400.    Alie-Cox, much like Donald Parham in LAC, is an end zone specialist with plays designed specifically for him.   No, I don't take catch/yardage totals, because there's a 3-headed TE monster.  But he's the EZ guy.  

 

Entering MNF with a 4.4U profit, so putting up 8.2U risks changing this to a negative week, but you have to take some risks to get ahead, and I just like the value too much with these players, especially with D's that will funnel work their way.  BOL!

Edited October 11, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

On 10/8/2021 at 11:06 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

 

 

 

 

Really like all 4 of these. Here's a few obscure ones I'm eyeing. Curious to get your feedback. 

Mike Davis u45.5 rushing yards -115 - Davis saw his lowest rush share last week (52%) and posted 1.1 YPC against a defense that otherwise ceded over 5 YPC to both Patterson & Gallman combined. I think Davis is loosing grip on this job and we'll continue to see Gallman's usage scale up. Take out games against CMC & Henry, and the Jets surrendered sub 4 YPC to both the Broncos and Patriots RBs. 

Mike Davis u13.5 carries -111 - Same reasons as above. He hit the under last week in a game with positive game script and I expect the Jets to keep pace here. 

Mac Jones u253.5 pass yards -114 - Jones has hit the over in 3 of 4 games this year, so why the under? It's fair to expect the Texans offense to struggle (lowest O/U of the week, Mills O/U 187 pass yards) which means this game should most closely resemble the Patriots game at the Jets a few weeks back. It's the only game all season Jones hasn't exceeded 30 attempts and/or 200 pass yards. Considering the state of the OLine, I'd also expect most of those attempts to be quick attempts served as an extension of the run game. Jones' O/U completions is 23.5 and he hasn't hit the over on this number with fewer than 29 completions this season. 

DeVante Parker u4.5 completions +105 - Really like this at + odds. Parker has hit the over in 1 of 4 games this year, with that 1 being a massive blow out to the Bills (hit 5 receptions). He's now nursing nagging shoulder and hamstring injuries and should be much less than 100% if he plays. The counter argument is that the Bucs are somewhat of a pass funnel defense with how elite the run d is, but I don't know if that automatically leads to higher volume for Parker in particular. He's also a solid deep threat, so I wouldn't angle for the yardage prop here. And hey, an in-game hamstring aggravation is a win for the under bettors. 

Mike Gesicki O45.5 rec. yards -115 - If Parker sees less work, it's natural to assume Jacoby Brissett's #1 target will see more volume. He's easily hit the over in both Brissett starts and I'd expect them to be throwing a lot. 

Zach Ertz O27.5 rec. yards -114 - This feels insanely low for a guy who's posted 10 catches for over 100 yards the last 2 weeks. Even with CMC out, the Panthers offense is going to make Philly throw and Hurts has been loving his TEs recently. 

James Robinson O61.5 rush yards -120 - How is this so low? JRob has ran for over 150 yards the last 2 weeks and has only seen his rush share grow each week. Against a Titans defense that will struggle to get off the field and a Titans offense that might again struggle to sustain drives, this feels like a layup. 

Damien Williams O22.5 rec. yards -114 - Fun fact; in Williams' last 10 games where he's seen at least 10 carries (including playoffs), he has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 9 of them. Think he'll get 10+ carries this weekend? Than there's a great chance he also sees the receiving work. Against a Raiders offense that has been playing well for most of the early season, the Bears shouldn't be able to sit on sub 20 attempts for a second week in a row. 

Darnell Mooney O49.5 rec. yards -114 - This line assumes two things. 1) Mooney isn't Fields favorite target and 2) the Bears won't be forced to throw the ball more than 20 times in this game. I'll take my odds on at least one of those being false. Mooney is a deep threat specialist with a QB using him as the focal point with a prop he could theoretically hit with 1 catch (his long catch last week was 64 yards). I also love his o4.5 catches at +114. 

Kadarius Toney O50.5 rec. yards -114 - Crazy to me that this line is higher than Mooney's, but that's besides the point. With Shepard and Slayton ruled out, Toney should once again play the role that saw him net 9 targets for 78 yards last week. This week, he gets an even worse Dallas defense that will likely deploy shutdown corner Diggs on Golladay. Even with a poor aDOT, I'd expect a volume game of 7 catches for 60 yards here. 

Cole Beasley O52.5 rec. yards -114 - Another one I love. His O/U catches is juiced at -160 for O4.5. Get this; in the two games where the Bills defense has given up at least 1 point, Beasley has hit 13 targets in each. It's a hyperbolic stat that's simply meant to showcase that Beasley gets serious work in games that the Bills keep competitive. I fully expect the Chiefs to keep this game competitive, which means Cole should get his. 

 

I'm planning on locking in 1U on the Mac Jones, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, James Robinson, and Kadarius Toney plays. 

Still considering the Mike Davis, Damien Williams, and Cole Beasley plays. Might go 0.5U on each of those. 

 

Mac Jones ✅

Mike Gesicki ❌ (Dude got 7 targets and missed this by 2 yards, with his last catch going for 0 yards. Tough loss.) 

Zach Ertz ❌ (1 catch on 6 targets. Another tough L. Very likely I go back to this prop next week as Ertz has now seen 7, 8, and 6 targets the last 3 weeks, playing against Tampa Bay with Lavonte David out.) 

James Robinson ✅

Kadarius Toney ✅

DeVante Parker N/A

 

I didn't end up playing the other ones, but for the sake of tracking, Mike Davis hit the over on yards but the under on carries. Avoided this one for the right reasons, but worth noting Davis' opportunity share is dwindling, so I'll likely target his carries prop again. Damien Williams narrowly lost the o22 rec. yards prop. 

3-2 on the day. 

[SaveOurSonics]

I have a good amount on the line tonight so not messing with any props. 

Got that 4-leg ML parlay that's just lucky to be alive (Rams/Vikings/Patriots/Ravens) at +300. 

 

I've also been throwing out a hail mary 7.5-point teaser the last 3 weeks for like 0.25U. Barely missed on a 15-legger last week (lost 1 leg, Cowboys/Panthers under 60 points). 

Anyways, currently staring at a 13-legger that has now hit every leg except the 2 left standing tonight: 

Ravens +0.5 & u54 

With all of that information provided, do you guys think I'm better off hedging those two tickets with just Colts +7.5 or teasing Colts +14 & O40? 

[paul-mac]

Early look ahead at next week's lines and I think the favourites are all overpriced. I really like taking the points in a lot of games.

 

Chargers (+3.5) and Raiders (+3) are dogs that I like to win outright. Texans (+10) are they played NE close, given that I can't see Indy blowing anyone out. Minnesota and Arizona look like teaser options.

[SBLIII]

3 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

Early look ahead at next week's lines and I think the favourites are all overpriced. I really like taking the points in a lot of games.

 

Chargers (+3.5) and Raiders (+3) are dogs that I like to win outright. Texans (+10) are they played NE close, given that I can't see Indy blowing anyone out. Minnesota and Arizona look like teaser options.

I'm taking Jacksonville outright

[paul-mac]

3 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

I'm taking Jacksonville outright

My math says Miami should be laying 2 points. They're actually laying 3.5.

 

If the game was in Jacksonville then I'd make the Jaguars favourites, but having it in London with a Dolphins crowd (the fish are the second most popular team in the UK) tips it towards Miami. I think -3.5 is a crazy bet though.

[N4L]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

With all of that information provided, do you guys think I'm better off hedging those two tickets with just Colts +7.5 or teasing Colts +14 & O40? 

Take the colts ML +300, colts +7.5, and the over in separate bets 

No reason to tease with a hedge imo. Opens too many scenarios where you lose both 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I have a good amount on the line tonight so not messing with any props. 

Got that 4-leg ML parlay that's just lucky to be alive (Rams/Vikings/Patriots/Ravens) at +300. 

 

I've also been throwing out a hail mary 7.5-point teaser the last 3 weeks for like 0.25U. Barely missed on a 15-legger last week (lost 1 leg, Cowboys/Panthers under 60 points). 

Anyways, currently staring at a 13-legger that has now hit every leg except the 2 left standing tonight: 

Ravens +0.5 & u54 

With all of that information provided, do you guys think I'm better off hedging those two tickets with just Colts +7.5 or teasing Colts +14 & O40? 

Hedge with Colts +7.5.   That also allows you to potentially hit both sides and middle it.  Can’t with the tease combo.  As @N4L mentioned you open yourself to losing the hedge outright (like Bal wins 27-10).      This way you can still win all the bets but worst case you protect against a straight loss across the board.   

Edited October 11, 2021 by Broncofan