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21 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Hedge with Colts +7.5.   That also allows you to potentially hit both sides and middle it.  Can’t with the tease combo.  As @N4L mentioned you open yourself to losing the hedge outright (like Bal wins 27-10).      This way you can still win all the bets but worst case you protect against a straight loss across the board.   

Just coming back to this thread and happy to see that I already did almost exactly what you and @N4L recommended (didn't bet on the Under). 

 

I bet enough on Colts +7.5 to hit even if the other bets lose. I also put enough on Colts ML to make a decent amount even if the Ravens lose outright. 

Best case scenario, Ravens win a low scoring game by like 6 (let's say 20-14 Ravens) and I come out around +20U tonight. Worst case, Colts win outright, I'll come up around +4U. 

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Looking ahead to next week, I just put some money down on a 3-leg ML parlay for Packers, Cowboys, and Steelers.

 

Oddly enough, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Bills make me a little nervous this week. I feel like people will be flocking to bet on these teams. Could easily see Philly catch TB off guard at home on a short week without their defensive leader in Lavonte David. Everyone's expecting a Chiefs bounce back, but that defense looks rough and WFT should be able to move the ball against them. With CEH out and Tyreek potentially limited, the WFT defense is still talented enough to show up at home despite how they've played to-date. And the Bills, while extraordinarily hot right now, are facing a tough ATS underdog team in the Titans, on the road, after a huge primetime win for them. Feels like a cliche spot for a letdown against a Titans team that is better than what they've shown so far. 

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25 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Looking ahead to next week, I just put some money down on a 3-leg ML parlay for Packers, Cowboys, and Steelers.

Oddly enough, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Bills make me a little nervous this week. I feel like people will be flocking to bet on these teams. Could easily see Philly catch TB off guard at home on a short week without their defensive leader in Lavonte David. Everyone's expecting a Chiefs bounce back, but that defense looks rough and WFT should be able to move the ball against them. With CEH out and Tyreek potentially limited, the WFT defense is still talented enough to show up at home despite how they've played to-date. And the Bills, while extraordinarily hot right now, are facing a tough ATS underdog team in the Titans, on the road, after a huge primetime win for them. Feels like a cliche spot for a letdown against a Titans team that is better than what they've shown so far. 

I also like those 3 games next week. Cowboys are the only team left that's undefeated ATS and I don't think New England has enough offensive fire power to keep up. The Bears are 3-2 but their offense hasn't looked very good, particularly throwing the ball so I don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Packers. And the Seahawks have been extremely inconsistent this year with Wilson/Carson now they're heading on the road to play against a good Steelers defense with Geno Smith/Alex Collins. 

Some of the games I'm definitely staying away from are Raiders/Broncos, Jaguars/Dolphins, and Cardinals/Browns. 

The Buccaneers/Eagles intrigues me just because the Thursday night games are always weird. Through the first 5 weeks of the season favorites on TNF are 2-3 with only the Rams and Panthers covering. But in both of those games the other team was playing with their backup QB. Road teams are actually 5-0 ATS on Thursday night though as the Cowboys, Giants, Panthers, Rams, and Jaguars all either covered or kept the game close. 

The Eagles are a hard team to pick for or against though, I have Hurts in fantasy so I've actually watched all of their games and Sirani is a terrible play caller/game manager. One thing that does play in their favor though is if the line moves up more to 7.5/8.0, the Eagles have shown that they will continue to pass/try to score even if they have 0 chance of winning. So I could easily see the game being like 34-20 and Hurts rushing for a TD with 3 minutes remaining while the Bucs don't cover 7.5 or above.

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1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Just coming back to this thread and happy to see that I already did almost exactly what you and @N4L recommended (didn't bet on the Under). 

 

I bet enough on Colts +7.5 to hit even if the other bets lose. I also put enough on Colts ML to make a decent amount even if the Ravens lose outright. 

Best case scenario, Ravens win a low scoring game by like 6 (let's say 20-14 Ravens) and I come out around +20U tonight. Worst case, Colts win outright, I'll come up around +4U. 

At this stage how badly would you be sweating O40 lol.  Always take the straight hedge good on you.   

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Pittman hits both props early.  


Andrews 1 catch away.  
 

Taylor rec yards already.   Needs 45 rush yards this half but game script going to be huge.    
 

Brown with a goose egg but game script going to be in his favor.   Lamar missed him at least 2x open.  
 

Only prop that looks super iffy is Alie Cox TD - gotta hope they get to the RZ    Ironically only time they got there Wentz turned it over before they get to Alie Cox territory.  

 

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On 10/11/2021 at 1:24 AM, Broncofan said:

For MNF, a few plays already stand out:

Marquise Brown O4.5 catches +120 / O55.5 receving yards -110 - Indy is giving up a ton of catches and yards to the #1 WR.   As long as he doesn't drop TD's and chunk plays (!!!DET!!!!), he should be good on both counts.

Mark Andrews O4.5 catches +140 - see above

Jonathan Taylor O55.5 rushing. yards, O12.5 receiving yards - BAL is a good run D, but this is just too low.  Even with no Quentin Nelson, we know Indy is committed to the run.  Where the BAL D is also vulnerable - RB receiving yards.  I like taking both (the combined prop is 80.5, which is silly to take a higher number IMO).  

Michael Pittman O4.5 catches +110, O53.5 receiving yards - I know BAL is very good against the pass, but Pittman is going to soak up 10+ targets a game.   Injury's the only way I see him missing the catch totals, and I think he can get at least 1 chunk play to hit the O53.5 pretty easily.

 

I also have 1 longshot TD prop, and I'm surprised that it's still this high after last week:

Mo Alie-Cox - +650 / +10000 2+ at 0.8U/0.4U.    I know, I know, he had 2 last week - but that alone should have dropped him to +350 or +400.    Alie-Cox, much like Donald Parham in LAC, is an end zone specialist with plays designed specifically for him.   No, I don't take catch/yardage totals, because there's a 3-headed TE monster.  But he's the EZ guy.  

 

Entering MNF with a 4.4U profit, so putting up 8.2U risks changing this to a negative week, but you have to take some risks to get ahead, and I just like the value too much with these players, especially with D's that will funnel work their way.  BOL!

 

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Just coming back to this thread and happy to see that I already did almost exactly what you and @N4L recommended (didn't bet on the Under). 

 

I bet enough on Colts +7.5 to hit even if the other bets lose. I also put enough on Colts ML to make a decent amount even if the Ravens lose outright. 

Best case scenario, Ravens win a low scoring game by like 6 (let's say 20-14 Ravens) and I come out around +20U tonight. Worst case, Colts win outright, I'll come up around +4U. 

 

2 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Got absolutely ****ed on that -4 yard rush by Taylor. Need a miracle by the Colts D to get the ball back.

 

OK so that was an almost perfect outcome for @SaveOurSonics as he wins with the BAL play and with the IND +7.5 still covering for the hedge, the BAL/U54 loses on the OT TD (ugh).   

For the player props, one bad beat for sure - J-Taylor was taken off the field for 6 runs that netted 30+ yards....and still got to 57 yards, until that unbelievably bad 3rd down call by Reich, to go down to 53 yards.  Now THAT's a bad beat...ouch.  I would bet that every time again..the odds of going over 55.5 were at least 70+ percent (curse on Reich lol).

Still, the MNF tally is really good:

MNF Player Props - 6-1 (Taylor O55.5 being the only L - man; everything else won easily), with +money on 3 bets, a nice 5.8U profit tonight. 

TD props - Alie-Cox 0-1, but man he had his chances, 2x he got the ball with only 1 guy to beat inside the 10, but couldn't turn up.  Still the right call, what worries me is this opp won't present itself it again at those odds.    Would hit it easily if we got +500/+8000 2+, but doubt we'll get the chance.  Oh well.  -1.2U tonight.

+4.6U for MNF

 

 

Final tally for Week 5: 

ATS - 4-2, 2.0U profit

RACE - 0-1, -1.5U loss

Player props - 22-13 (amazing result after going 0-5 after UK game), +10.9U profit (bunch of +money receptions props hit)

TD props - 0-2 (Arnold & Alie-Cox) -2.4U loss

WEEK 5 NET Result: +9.0U profit (Risk - 8.2U on TNF (+0.1 profit lol), 6.4U on UK (-6.4 loss lol), 27.2U (+6.5U profit), SNF 4U (+4.2U profit), MNF (7.2U, +4.6U profit)

I show the above to also highlight that I usually will bet no more than 6-8U on a prime time game, but only if I see a lot of opportunities for values (SNF I didn't see them, TNF & MNF I saw many chances - looking back, pretty clear I forced some UK picks - lesson learned).  But also with fewer games with bye weeks, I would NOT invest 25U+ of my stake, probably won't be higher than 20U in shorter schedules, and more likely in the 15-20U range).

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 5 FINAL:

ATS 18-10; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.9U profit

Player props - 58-43, +14.0U profit

TD - 5-14, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +23.2U so far 

Net balance:  +62.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U)

 

 

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6 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Looking ahead to next week, I just put some money down on a 3-leg ML parlay for Packers, Cowboys, and Steelers.

 

Oddly enough, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Bills make me a little nervous this week. I feel like people will be flocking to bet on these teams. Could easily see Philly catch TB off guard at home on a short week without their defensive leader in Lavonte David. Everyone's expecting a Chiefs bounce back, but that defense looks rough and WFT should be able to move the ball against them. With CEH out and Tyreek potentially limited, the WFT defense is still talented enough to show up at home despite how they've played to-date. And the Bills, while extraordinarily hot right now, are facing a tough ATS underdog team in the Titans, on the road, after a huge primetime win for them. Feels like a cliche spot for a letdown against a Titans team that is better than what they've shown so far. 

2 rules of thumb that have served bettors well last year and this year:

1.  Fade KC ATS.  The KC D is bad enough, there's just no way I can give 6+ pts to WFT.  I know WFT is terrible, but this could be a 35-31 KC W....that's pretty much the MO last year, when they won their last 8 of 9 games in the regular season IIRC....and went 0-9 ATS. 

2.  Fade TEN as a favorite, favor them as a dog.   Most maddening team around IMO.   Could see a BUF win on a last minute FG, or a 10-pt lead that TEN backdoors with a late TD (and Henry is the way you keep the game close, by keeping Allen off the field).

 

TAM on a short week is always a concern, although if I was going to lean one way, it would be TAM -7.   The DL edge is massive, and the depth of the TAM weapons really is something else.    Their OL also plays at a MUCH higher level than the CAR OL did - which exposes the PHI weaknesses.  Darnold/CAR OL vs. Brady/TAM OL is a world of difference.   

Other matchups I like (and in the vein of adapting, going with 2 dog picks):

CIN -3 @ DET -110 - gotta admit, 2 things concern me.  First, the OT is always a bad thing the next week.  Secondly, Zac Taylor is absolutely a liability in game prep and management.  He almost cost the team the JAX game, and he did cost the the GB game.  But the talent difference is simply too wide.   Losing Cephus and their OL is going to hurt the Lions a lot more vs. CIN's stout D than it did vs. Minny's D (who still limited them to 18 points).   I see a 27-17 type Cincy win, so gotta take the points here.

LAC ML @ BAL +160, RACE to 20/25/30 - this is all about 5 points.  First, LAC's O is not going to let BAL's D off the hook matchup wise, this is an even worse matchup than IND's O presented.    Secondly, BAL has a short week AND now having played OT.   Thirdly, their team is just decimated with key injuries.    Fourth, LAC actually has played Lamar 2x, so unlike a lot of teams, they are better prepped, and have the speed on D to handle him better than most D's.    Finally, I love John Harbaugh, top 3 coach IMO - but Brandon Staley will not let him gain more win opportunities by metrics and advanced analysis - this is going to be a game management push.  That was a huge minus for Indy tonight - it won't happen with the Chargers & Staley.   To be clear - the 5 reasons aren't why I think the Chargers are a lock - but while I would see a healthy BAL team not having played OT on MNF as a 2-3 pt fave at home, I think the line should now be a straight pick 'em in BAL.     So I'll take the +160  ML, and the race lines will be really favorable (thinking +150 / +240 / +400-ish).   Too much value to pass up.

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 - Gruden getting fired is going to have ppl think that the Raiders are going to be in disarray.  That may be true long-term, but here's the thing - they already know how to beat us. They don't need Gruden to get a good game plan.   And our OL and skill positions are terrible matchups for the Raiders (our OL vs. their pass rush, and our lack of weapons can't make their secondary pay).   On the flip side, the Raiders should be salivating at our recent struggles in defending power run, with a healthier Josh Jacobs there.   And the speed WR's and Darren Waller - we don't have an answer for, Mark Andrews exposed that in spades.    Again, this isn't a lock, but it should be a pick 'em IMO, so I'll gladly take the +160 side, and the favorable RACE lines (thinking +150/+240/+350-ish). 

I think as time goes by, all of the above 3 lines will move to CIN/LAC/LV, so looking to lock those in as soon as they become available (RACES not yet there, CIN -3 and 'dog ML picks in).  Same with TAM at -7.   BOL!

 

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18 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Cowboys

I love the cowboys this week. They have so many ways to attack the NE defense. Very well orchestrated offense. Mac Jones is a very limited QB and NE wont be able to keep up. I really hate backing Mccarthy against Bill because its almost as big of a situational disadvantage as Anthony Lynn was last year when the chargers lost 47-0 to the pats, but the cowboys schemes are very sound and they have a lot of talent advantages. 

I disagree with you about Tampa and KC.

18 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Everyone's expecting a Chiefs bounce back, but that defense looks rough and WFT should be able to move the ball against them. With CEH out and Tyreek potentially limited, the WFT defense is still talented enough to show up at home despite how they've played to-date.

I dont trust KC to cover because their defense is so bad, but I trust their offense to score 40 points this week. The bills defense is elite and I knew KC would not have a great night. I get that tyreek is banged up but they have enough speed elsewhere and the backend of the washington defense is just so atrocious that KC will rip them to shreds. 

Washingtons defense continues to be the most overrated unit in the league. Jack Del Rio is not a good DC. Their DL is very thin. Chase young is not an effective pass rusher because he has no pass rushing moves. Their secondary is bad and their coverage schemes are poor. Andy Reid will get the KC offense back on track. The coaching advantage and talent gap is just too great. 

Washington has a lot to like on offense, and is good enough there to force KC to keep their foot on the gas pedal. I love the over 55 in KC/Wash and I do expect KC to win the game outright, so they are a fantastic teaser candidate

18 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I feel like people will be flocking to bet on [Tampa Bay]. Could easily see Philly catch TB off guard at home on a short week without their defensive leader in Lavonte David

Eagles defense's strength is in their front. They dont have brandon graham but they do have a lot of talent there. Tampas OL is very good. Eagles secondary is just at such a massive disadvantage that I dont think they will be able to do anything to slow down Brady and the three headed monster at WR

Todd Bowels is a fantastic DC. Bucs defense still has a ton of talent without David

I dont think Siriani and the rest of the eagles coaching staff is good enough to overcome the massive talent disparity. I will gladly lay 6 points with a top 2 team playing a bottom 10 team any day of the week. Another great teaser candidate imo 

 

I actually came in here to say I have a colts +14.5, Tampa +.5, KC +1, Cowboys +3 teaser that pays +200 for a large amount. In hindsight I should have done a few two leg teasers like colts/tampa by itself, but I probably will tease TB/DAL by itself on thursday. Teasers are the only time I will typically do a parlay of sorts with games on different days/different time slots. 

You mentioned buffalo... I said it last week and I will say it again this week, their defense is what gives me so much confidence in laying points with them. Their offense is fantastic obviously. Josh Allen should win the MVP and their weapons are top notch. Tennessee defense is terrible and I see no reason why buffalo wont put up another 30 points. Do we really trust a poorly coached TEN offense to score on this very well orchestrated defense by McDermott?? They have brand names at skill positions, and there is always a chance Henry puts up 250 and multiple TDs, but the bills defense is a top 5 unit and I really dont see that happening. Dont overthink it and ride the hot hand. Tennessee has not shown that they are a good football team capable of playing a complete football game, and thats what it will take to beat BUFF

Tampa -6

KC/WFT Over 55

DAL -4 

I love the LAC call by @Broncofanas well 

Edited by N4L
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Jaguars offense: 129 rushing yards per game (6th), 5.3 YPA (2nd)

Dolphins defense: 133 rushing yards per game allowed (24th), 4.4 YPA allowed (20th)

The Jaguars have been able to run the ball effectively over the last 3 weeks with 159, 139, and 198 yard performances against the Cardinals, Bengals, and Titans. The Dolphins have given up over 100 rushing yards in every game this season including their game against the Raiders with Peyton Barber. 

James Robinson only played 45% of the Jaguars snaps against the Dolphins last season and had his 2nd best performance of the entire year with 129 total yards and 2 TD. 

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

TAM on a short week is always a concern, although if I was going to lean one way, it would be TAM -7.   The DL edge is massive, and the depth of the TAM weapons really is something else.    Their OL also plays at a MUCH higher level than the CAR OL did - which exposes the PHI weaknesses.  Darnold/CAR OL vs. Brady/TAM OL is a world of difference.   

Brady and Godwin just popped up on the injury report.

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Vikings (ML) +105 at Panthers is another game I really like this week. 

The Panthers offense hasn't looked very good over the last two weeks. They had 28 points against Dallas but 14 of those points came in garbage time. Last week against Philadelphia they only scored 18 points and they've also had so-so scoring production against the Jets with 19 points and Texans with 24 points. 

The Vikings defense hasn't allowed a passing TD over the last two weeks and Darnold is regressing back to the mean big time. Over the last three weeks he has 3 TD/5 INT and has been sacked 11 times in those 3 contests. Which doesn't really bode well for him this week as the Vikings currently rank 2nd in sacks and 4th in hurry percentage. 

Assuming Cook is back, the Vikings 1/2 rushing attack should be able to feast against the Panthers defense. 

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4 hours ago, N4L said:

I dont think Siriani and the rest of the eagles coaching staff is good enough to overcome the massive talent disparity. 

Agreed 100%. Siriani has horrific play calling and game management. He genuinely believes that Jalen can go toe to toe with the best QB's in the league throwing the ball. 

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