Matts4313 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, ET80 said: ... what is ATS? against the spread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, Matts4313 said: against the spread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 5 hours ago, Matts4313 said: Heyoo I found something you might care about while searching for Cowboys news. Dak is the only man you can trust with your money. Jerry Jones approves this message. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Not sure what the swift catches/rec yards prop is, but OVER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, N4L said: Not sure what the swift catches/rec yards prop is, but OVER Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money. Not going away from that this week. For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): ATS Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier. Player Props TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105). Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem. I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough. Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x. Think Tampa scores 35+. Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5 yards receiving. Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving Same reasoning for all 3 WR. Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat. No Gronk, room for all. Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming. Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches. Tampa gives up the big play. Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol). So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early. Longshot TD Props Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out. It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone. If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol. Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted. EDIT - on IR. Damn that’s too bad Edited October 13, 2021 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 15 hours ago, NYRaider said: Dak is the only man you can trust with your money. Jerry Jones approves this message. Ironically, and I am trying to remember, but didn't Dallas start out like 0-4 or 0-5 last season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Ironically, and I am trying to remember, but didn't Dallas start out like 0-4 or 0-5 last season? Yeah but that's because they hadn't paid Dak yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fresh Prince Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Finally decide to get in on betting and my first official one was Ari and Lac money line +476 2 team parlay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, Fresh Prince said: Finally decide to get in on betting and my first official one was Ari and Lac money line +476 2 team parlay Good luck my boy. Those are two games I am a little worried about personally. Ravens have the 4th best rushing offense in the NFL / Chargers have the 32nd best run defense and the Browns have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL / Cardinals have the 28th best run defense. But I still have a couple of parlays with both on them ML. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Good luck my boy. Those are two games I am a little worried about personally. Ravens have the 4th best rushing offense in the NFL / Chargers have the 32nd best run defense and the Browns have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL / Cardinals have the 28th best run defense. But I still have a couple of parlays with both on them ML. Ravens have pretty inflated rushing stats due to the KC game. We haven’t been able to run in the slightest the last 2-3 weeks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Ravens have pretty inflated rushing stats due to the KC game. We haven’t been able to run in the slightest the last 2-3 weeks. You've still rushed for 100+ yards every week except for last week and have the 6th best YPC. The Chargers are 32nd in rushing defense despite holding the Raiders to 48 rushing yards, everyone else has ran wild against them and you're at home. I've bet on the Chargers ML in a couple parlays just because their offense is so explosive and I think Staley will have a good gameplay for Lamar while you're coming off of a short week. But there's definitely a reason you guys are still favored in Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, N4L said: Not sure what the swift catches/rec yards prop is, but OVER Lions ML is actually a game that I like this week. Their defense has been trending in the right direction, Joe Burrow is banged up, and every Bengals game has been super close. If Swift can get loose like Aaron Jones did last week I think they have a good chance to win. Edited October 13, 2021 by NYRaider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 (edited) 35 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Lions ML is actually a game that I like this week. Their defense has been trending in the right direction, Joe Burrow is banged up, and every Bengals game has been super close. If Swift can get loose like Aaron Jones did last week I think they have a good chance to win. The main reason the games are close the last 2 weeks has been in huge part due to Zac Taylor's poor game management (and GB being a legitimate team). JAX his 1H plan was awful. All of which clearly is a concern - but CIN's talent gap over DET is pretty wide, ESPECIALLY with the Lions' OL problems, and loss of other skill guys like Cephus. MIN's D wasn't able to exploit the OL problems as much as I think CIN's front 4 can. I love Swift, but I'm pretty heavy on CIN -3. If it fails, Taylor will no doubt be a big part of the problem (or some weird variance like -3 TO's). Either way, though, Swift should eat - but IMO the Bengals winning big only helps Swift's gamescript, another reason why I love him (I mean, I've backed him each week even after he lost at O4.5, if they keep running it out there at +money, I'll keep going there). Edited October 13, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Broncofan said: The main reason the games are close the last 2 weeks has been in huge part due to Zac Taylor's poor game management (and GB being a legitimate team). JAX his 1H plan was awful. All of which clearly is a concern - but CIN's talent gap over DET is pretty wide, ESPECIALLY with the Lions' OL problems, and loss of other skill guys like Cephus. MIN's D wasn't able to exploit the OL problems as much as I think CIN's front 4 can. I love Swift, but I'm pretty heavy on CIN -3. If it fails, Taylor will no doubt be a big part of the problem (or some weird variance like -3 TO's). Either way, though, Swift should eat - but IMO the Bengals winning big only helps Swift's gamescript, another reason why I love him (I mean, I've backed him each week even after he lost at O4.5, if they keep running it out there at +money, I'll keep going there). The Lions are getting Taylor Decker back this week. The Lions defense was able to slow down the Ravens/Vikings offenses and lost both games on last second field goals by less then 3 points. Joe Mixon is banged up, their backup RB was just placed on the covid list, so the rookie RB Chris Evans who has 0 carries this season might have to be the feature back. The Bengals are 24th in passing offense and 22nd in rushing offense so far this year so it's not like they're some great offensive team either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 hours ago, MikeT14 said: Ironically, and I am trying to remember, but didn't Dallas start out like 0-4 or 0-5 last season? Are you talking about record or ATS? We were 2-3 in record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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