Jump to content

Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, N4L said:

Not sure what the swift catches/rec yards prop is, but OVER 

Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money.   Not going away from that this week.   
 

For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): 

ATS

Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier.   
 

Player Props

TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105).   Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem.   I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough.   Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x.   Think Tampa scores 35+.   
 

Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5  yards receiving.   
 

Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving 

Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving 

Same reasoning for all 3 WR.  Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat.  No Gronk, room for all.   
 

Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming.  

Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches.  Tampa gives up the big play.  

 

Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception  props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol).   So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early.   
 

 

Longshot TD Props 

Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out.   It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone.     
 

If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol.  Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted.   EDIT - on IR.   Damn that’s too bad 
 

 

Edited by Broncofan
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Fresh Prince said:

Finally decide to get in on betting and my first official one was Ari and Lac money line +476 2 team parlay

Good luck my boy. Those are two games I am a little worried about personally. Ravens have the 4th best rushing offense in the NFL / Chargers have the 32nd best run defense and the Browns have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL / Cardinals have the 28th best run defense. But I still have a couple of parlays with both on them ML.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Good luck my boy. Those are two games I am a little worried about personally. Ravens have the 4th best rushing offense in the NFL / Chargers have the 32nd best run defense and the Browns have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL / Cardinals have the 28th best run defense. But I still have a couple of parlays with both on them ML.

Ravens have pretty inflated rushing stats due to the KC game. We haven’t been able to run in the slightest the last 2-3 weeks.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Ravens have pretty inflated rushing stats due to the KC game. We haven’t been able to run in the slightest the last 2-3 weeks.

You've still rushed for 100+ yards every week except for last week and have the 6th best YPC. The Chargers are 32nd in rushing defense despite holding the Raiders to 48 rushing yards, everyone else has ran wild against them and you're at home. I've bet on the Chargers ML in a couple parlays just because their offense is so explosive and I think Staley will have a good gameplay for Lamar while you're coming off of a short week. But there's definitely a reason you guys are still favored in Vegas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, N4L said:

Not sure what the swift catches/rec yards prop is, but OVER 

Lions ML is actually a game that I like this week. Their defense has been trending in the right direction, Joe Burrow is banged up, and every Bengals game has been super close. If Swift can get loose like Aaron Jones did last week I think they have a good chance to win. 

Edited by NYRaider
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Lions ML is actually a game that I like this week. Their defense has been trending in the right direction, Joe Burrow is banged up, and every Bengals game has been super close. If Swift can get loose like Aaron Jones did last week I think they have a good chance to win. 

The main reason the games are close the last 2 weeks has been in huge part due to Zac Taylor's poor game management (and GB being a legitimate team).   JAX his 1H plan was awful.   

All of which clearly is a concern - but CIN's talent gap over DET is pretty wide, ESPECIALLY with the Lions' OL problems, and loss of other skill guys like Cephus.     MIN's D wasn't able to exploit the OL problems as much as I think CIN's front 4 can. 

I love Swift, but I'm pretty heavy on CIN -3.   If it fails, Taylor will no doubt be a big part of the problem (or some weird variance like -3 TO's).    Either way, though, Swift should eat - but IMO the Bengals winning big only helps Swift's gamescript, another reason why I love him (I mean, I've backed him each week even after he lost at O4.5, if they keep running it out there at +money, I'll keep going there).

Edited by Broncofan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The main reason the games are close the last 2 weeks has been in huge part due to Zac Taylor's poor game management (and GB being a legitimate team).   JAX his 1H plan was awful.   

All of which clearly is a concern - but CIN's talent gap over DET is pretty wide, ESPECIALLY with the Lions' OL problems, and loss of other skill guys like Cephus.     MIN's D wasn't able to exploit the OL problems as much as I think CIN's front 4 can. 

I love Swift, but I'm pretty heavy on CIN -3.   If it fails, Taylor will no doubt be a big part of the problem (or some weird variance like -3 TO's).    Either way, though, Swift should eat - but IMO the Bengals winning big only helps Swift's gamescript, another reason why I love him (I mean, I've backed him each week even after he lost at O4.5, if they keep running it out there at +money, I'll keep going there).

The Lions are getting Taylor Decker back this week. The Lions defense was able to slow down the Ravens/Vikings offenses and lost both games on last second field goals by less then 3 points. Joe Mixon is banged up, their backup RB was just placed on the covid list, so the rookie RB Chris Evans who has 0 carries this season might have to be the feature back. The Bengals are 24th in passing offense and 22nd in rushing offense so far this year so it's not like they're some great offensive team either. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...