NYRaider Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Are you talking about record or ATS? We were 2-3 in record. Line keeps moving lower and lower, are Zeke/Cooper not playing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: The Lions are getting Taylor Decker back this week. The Lions defense was able to slow down the Ravens/Vikings offenses and lost both games on last second field goals by less then 3 points. Joe Mixon is banged up, their backup RB was just placed on the covid list, so the rookie RB Chris Evans who has 0 carries this season might have to be the feature back. The Bengals are 24th in passing offense and 22nd in rushing offense so far this year so it's not like they're some great offensive team either. One of the biggest reasons for this (beside the CIN OL, but that's not changing) is again...Zac Taylor. He's a massive liability to the Cin O in game-calling, and then game management decisions. I stayed away from CIN-JAX ATS wise, and couldn't back CIN upset of GB (and why I took the under last week vs. GB). But there's hope from last game, which is why I back CIN -3 this week. CIN was dead last in situation neutral pace of play at 33.3 secs in the first 3 weeks - last week, they increased to 30.9 secs, which seems small, but that's a massive increase. More importantly, they went from situation-neutral pass rate at 55 percent (24th in league) the first 3 games, the last 2 games they're 2nd at 68 percent. Again, those are seismic shifts in strategy. They're willing to put the ball with their best players (novel concept, I know, but in games like these, it makes a massive difference). The OL is still going to be a problem vs good pass rush teams (and Burrow can't put himself willingly in harm's way like he did 2-3x vs. GB with plays that had no shot to get the first down), but the game planning and them leveraging their best players - I'd back CIN with a fair degree of confidence. Especially against the Detroit D in their current form, I'm totally fine backing them. They can always let me down with the TO game, or injuries, but the overall talent gap, and CIN's improving tendency to use the pass game and become more aggressive, I'm on board this week (recognizing Taylor is the X factor to complain about if they don't follow through on the support). Edited October 13, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Are you talking about record or ATS? We were 2-3 in record. ATS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 46 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Line keeps moving lower and lower, are Zeke/Cooper not playing? They are expected as far as I know. But Diggs missed practice, maybe thats why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, NYRaider said: Line keeps moving lower and lower, are Zeke/Cooper not playing? I think early $ is heavy on NE because of the Pats’ home dog record with BB. The issue being almost all of it is due to BB/TB12 together. As for since TB12 left - the Pats are 3–1 ATS as home dogs. But that’s such a small sample size it’s meaningless to extend the same type of weight. Especially when 2 of those 4 games were in pouring rain - which helps mitigate gaps in talent. Plus the fact the D was great last year; not so much this year. I’m pretty confident that’s what is driving the NE $ were seeing so far - which is pushing the line further. If it gets to DAL -3 I’m all over that. Edited October 14, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I think early $ is heavy on NE because of the Pats’ home dog record with BB. The issue being almost all of it is due to BB/TB12 together. As for since TB12 left - the Pats are 3–1 ATS as home dogs. But that’s such a small sample size it’s meaningless to extend the same type of weight. Especially when 2 of those 4 games were in pouring rain - which helps mitigate gaps in talent. Plus the fact the D was great last year; not so much this year. I’m pretty confident that’s what is driving the NE $ were seeing so far - which is pushing the line further. If it gets to DAL -3 I’m all over that. I read somewhere the weather might be terrible this weekend as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Matts4313 said: They are expected as far as I know. But Diggs missed practice, maybe thats why? The only people who move lines are QBs, or guys like Derrick Henry. Its one of the ways that some people like @Broncofan find an edge, because certain players absolutely change gameplans etc etc and can cause big dominos to fall, but yet dont move the line very much. I will echo that its the ol' "BB as an underdog at home" is what is making people be skeptical about Dallas. All the better for us (pun intended). I will gladly take them at -3 rather than -4. Gimme gimmie gimmie Edited October 14, 2021 by N4L 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhanYouDigIt Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 James Robinson set at 72.5 rushing yards for Sunday. It was at 79.5. This has to be a lock. If he doesn’t get at least 20 carries it will be a crime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhanYouDigIt Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 10 hours ago, Broncofan said: Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money. Not going away from that this week. For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): ATS Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier. Player Props TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105). Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem. I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough. Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x. Think Tampa scores 35+. Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5 yards receiving. Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving Same reasoning for all 3 WR. Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat. No Gronk, room for all. Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming. Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches. Tampa gives up the big play. Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol). So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early. Longshot TD Props Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out. It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone. If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol. Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted. EDIT - on IR. Damn that’s too bad I’m seeing Ertz at 4.5 receptions. Smash the over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said: I’m seeing Ertz at 4.5 receptions. Smash the over? If it's at -120, I would. He should see 8+ targets, that's a 65-70 percent probability of getting to 5+ catches. If it's -120 or better, then it's basically paying for a 55 percent probability. I'm looking to place bets where the metrics/analysis says you have a 10-15 percent edge in probability vs. payouts. Sadly, there are no locks - but you want the payouts to be far higher than the risk you are taking. It's why I usually take catches over yards unless it's a big-play WR, because catches are usually priced in with better value. Edited October 14, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 5 hours ago, Matts4313 said: I read somewhere the weather might be terrible this weekend as well. Nothing in the forecast for New England says that. Obv too early to lock it in, but keep that in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 21 hours ago, Broncofan said: Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money. Not going away from that this week. For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): ATS Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier. Player Props TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105). Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem. I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough. Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x. Think Tampa scores 35+. Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5 yards receiving. Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving Same reasoning for all 3 WR. Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat. No Gronk, room for all. Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming. Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches. Tampa gives up the big play. Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol). So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early. Longshot TD Props Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out. It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone. If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol. Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted. EDIT - on IR. Damn that’s too bad Added Ertz 04.5 catches at -120. AB catch prop came out finally at O5.5 +120. For long shot TD’s Ertz current TD prop is unplayable at +200 / +1400. Glad I got +300 / +4000 2+ 0.6U / 0.3U before Goedert news came out. Philly’s only has one other TE in Jack Stoll at +700 / +8000. Will go 0.4 / 0.2U 2+. there. Total 1.5U TD props. That’s 1U ATS, 8U on player props and 1.5U on long shot TD’s. 10.5U is a little higher than I’d like but I’ll be reducing my Sun stake given the smaller slate of games. The Stoll TD prop is likely chasing but if it was Richard Rodgers there I’d be all over it. BOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Do any of you have a site where you can bet 1st person to score a TD? DraftKings isn’t legal in ny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Rainmaker90 said: Do any of you have a site where you can bet 1st person to score a TD? DraftKings isn’t legal in ny look at fanduel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 hour ago, SBLIII said: look at fanduel Same as DraftKings. Illegal in the great state of NY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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