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Weekly Bets Thread


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1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

The Lions are getting Taylor Decker back this week. The Lions defense was able to slow down the Ravens/Vikings offenses and lost both games on last second field goals by less then 3 points. Joe Mixon is banged up, their backup RB was just placed on the covid list, so the rookie RB Chris Evans who has 0 carries this season might have to be the feature back. The Bengals are 24th in passing offense and 22nd in rushing offense so far this year so it's not like they're some great offensive team either. 

One of the biggest reasons for this (beside the CIN OL, but that's not changing) is again...Zac Taylor.   He's a massive liability to the Cin O in game-calling, and then game management decisions.  I stayed away from CIN-JAX ATS wise, and couldn't back CIN upset of GB (and why I took the under last week vs. GB).    But there's hope from last game, which is why I back CIN -3 this week.

CIN was dead last in situation neutral pace of play at 33.3 secs in the first 3 weeks - last week, they increased to 30.9 secs, which seems small, but that's a massive increase.  More importantly, they went from situation-neutral pass rate at 55 percent (24th in league) the first 3 games, the last 2 games they're 2nd at 68 percent.   Again, those are seismic shifts in strategy.    They're willing to put the ball with their best players (novel concept, I know, but in games like these, it makes a massive difference).

 The OL is still going to be a problem vs good pass rush teams (and Burrow can't put himself willingly in harm's way like he did 2-3x vs. GB with plays that had no shot to get the first down), but the game planning and them leveraging their best players - I'd back CIN with a fair degree of confidence.  Especially against the Detroit D in their current form, I'm totally fine backing them.   They can always let me down with the TO game, or injuries, but the overall talent gap, and CIN's improving tendency to use the pass game and become more aggressive, I'm on board this week (recognizing Taylor is the X factor to complain about if they don't follow through on the support).

Edited by Broncofan
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2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Line keeps moving lower and lower, are Zeke/Cooper not playing?

I think early $ is heavy on NE because of the Pats’ home dog record with BB.   The issue being almost all of it is due to BB/TB12 together.  
 

As for since TB12 left - the Pats are 3–1 ATS as home dogs.   But that’s such a small sample size it’s meaningless to extend the same type of weight.   Especially when 2 of those 4 games were in pouring rain - which helps mitigate gaps in talent.    Plus the fact the D was great last year; not so much this year.  
 

I’m pretty confident that’s what is driving the NE $ were seeing so far - which is pushing the line further.  If it gets to DAL -3 I’m all over that.  

Edited by Broncofan
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9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think early $ is heavy on NE because of the Pats’ home dog record with BB.   The issue being almost all of it is due to BB/TB12 together.  
 

As for since TB12 left - the Pats are 3–1 ATS as home dogs.   But that’s such a small sample size it’s meaningless to extend the same type of weight.   Especially when 2 of those 4 games were in pouring rain - which helps mitigate gaps in talent.    Plus the fact the D was great last year; not so much this year.  
 

I’m pretty confident that’s what is driving the NE $ were seeing so far - which is pushing the line further.  If it gets to DAL -3 I’m all over that.  

I read somewhere the weather might be terrible this weekend as well. 

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1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

They are expected as far as I know. But Diggs missed practice, maybe thats why?

The only people who move lines are QBs, or guys like Derrick Henry. 

Its one of the ways that some people like @Broncofan find an edge, because certain players absolutely change gameplans etc etc and can cause big dominos to fall, but yet dont move the line very much. 

 

I will echo that its the ol' "BB as an underdog at home" is what is making people be skeptical about Dallas. All the better for us (pun intended). I will gladly take them at -3 rather than -4. Gimme gimmie gimmie

Edited by N4L
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10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money.   Not going away from that this week.   
 

For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): 

ATS

Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier.   
 

Player Props

TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105).   Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem.   I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough.   Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x.   Think Tampa scores 35+.   
 

Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5  yards receiving.   
 

Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving 

Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving 

Same reasoning for all 3 WR.  Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat.  No Gronk, room for all.   
 

Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming.  

Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches.  Tampa gives up the big play.  

 

Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception  props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol).   So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early.   
 

 

Longshot TD Props 

Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out.   It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone.     
 

If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol.  Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted.   EDIT - on IR.   Damn that’s too bad 
 

 

I’m seeing Ertz at 4.5 receptions. Smash the over?

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3 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

I’m seeing Ertz at 4.5 receptions. Smash the over?

If it's at -120, I would.  He should see 8+ targets, that's a 65-70 percent probability of getting to 5+ catches.   If it's -120 or better, then it's basically paying for a 55 percent probability.  I'm looking to place bets where the metrics/analysis says you have a 10-15 percent edge in probability vs. payouts.  

 

Sadly, there are no locks - but you want the payouts to be far higher than the risk you are taking.    It's why I usually take catches over yards unless it's a big-play WR, because catches are usually priced in with better value.  

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21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money.   Not going away from that this week.   
 

For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): 

ATS

Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier.   
 

Player Props

TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105).   Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem.   I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough.   Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x.   Think Tampa scores 35+.   
 

Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5  yards receiving.   
 

Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving 

Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving 

Same reasoning for all 3 WR.  Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat.  No Gronk, room for all.   
 

Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming.  

Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches.  Tampa gives up the big play.  

 

Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception  props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol).   So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early.   
 

 

Longshot TD Props 

Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out.   It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone.     
 

If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol.  Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted.   EDIT - on IR.   Damn that’s too bad 
 

 

Added Ertz 04.5 catches at -120.   AB catch prop came out finally at O5.5 +120. 
 

For long shot TD’s Ertz current TD prop is unplayable at +200 / +1400.  Glad I got +300 / +4000 2+ 0.6U / 0.3U before Goedert news came out.     Philly’s only has one other TE in Jack Stoll at +700 / +8000.   Will go 0.4 / 0.2U 2+. there.   Total 1.5U TD props.  
 

That’s 1U ATS, 8U on player props and 1.5U on long shot TD’s.  10.5U is a little higher than I’d like but I’ll be reducing my Sun stake given the smaller slate of games.   The Stoll TD prop is likely chasing but if it was Richard Rodgers there I’d be all over it.  
 

BOL! 

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