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On 10/13/2021 at 12:52 PM, Broncofan said:

Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money.   Not going away from that this week.   
 

For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): 

ATS

Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier.   
 

Player Props

TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105).   Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem.   I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough.   Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x.   Think Tampa scores 35+.   
 

Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5  yards receiving.   
 

Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving 

Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving 

Same reasoning for all 3 WR.  Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat.  No Gronk, room for all.   
 

Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming.  

Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches.  Tampa gives up the big play.  

 

Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception  props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol).   So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early.   
 

 

Longshot TD Props 

Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out.   It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone.     
 

If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol.  Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted.   EDIT - on IR.   Damn that’s too bad 
 

 

Got both Philly TE TD props so glad I got Ertz at +300 / +400 before the line closed.  Woohoo! 

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43 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Did that first catch for Ertz for 3 yards not count?

Penalty wiped out the play.  Ertz 2 catches.   Ok because 2H is all garbage time if Tampa scores here.  

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59 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Penalty wiped out the play.  Ertz 2 catches.   Ok because 2H is all garbage time if Tampa scores here.  

Gotcha. Didn’t know if the catch would have still counted with the Sanders penalty coming after the play. Thank you.

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49 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Gotcha. Didn’t know if the catch would have still counted with the Sanders penalty coming after the play. Thank you.

Wow and that’s the diff for that prop.   Bad beat there.  

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Just now, Broncofan said:

Wow and that’s the diff for that prop.   Bad beat there.  

Always happens lol It was still a very good play. 
 

Does anyone here use PrizePicks? I’ve been using them for the past month and I am a big fan. 

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On 10/13/2021 at 12:52 PM, Broncofan said:

Not yet out but I’m guessing it’s O4.5 and high 30’s and hammering it (again) - the catch props especially if it's for + money.   Not going away from that this week.   
 

For TNF I have 1 ATS bet & 6 props / 1 TD (and looking for 2nd): 

ATS

Tampa -6.5 - posted rationale earlier.   
 

Player Props

TB12 O2.5 TD passing +105 (now -105).   Secondary the Eagles’ biggest problem.   I believe TAM OL protects TB12 more than enough.   Only way this fails is injury / DPI / getting tackled at 1 2x.   Think Tampa scores 35+.   
 

Evans O5.5 catches +100, O67.5  yards receiving.   
 

Antonio Brown O62.5 yards receiving 

Chris Godwin O66.5 yds receiving 

Same reasoning for all 3 WR.  Possible 1 of these 3 miss - but they should all eat.  No Gronk, room for all.   
 

Devonta Smith O70.5 yards receiving - smash spot coming.  

Quez Watkins O40.5 yards receiving - easily could do this with 1-2 catches.  Tampa gives up the big play.  

 

Vegas sees such a pass funnel game they won’t even put out an Ertz catch prop and ALL the reception  props are at -money now except Evans initially (and Evans now already -115 lol).   So I’ll go yards and cover that if a chunk play hits early.   
 

 

Longshot TD Props 

Zach Ertz +300 / +4000 2+ TD (0.8U & 0.4U) - sadly this went down once Goedert news came out.   It’s now +225 / +2500 2+ TD which is far closer to the target share / RZ work alone.     
 

If I could I would take a small stab at Richard Rodgers but they haven’t even posted that prop lol.  Should be a +800 / +10000 chance once posted.   EDIT - on IR.   Damn that’s too bad 
 

 

 

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Added Ertz 04.5 catches at -120.   AB catch prop came out finally at O5.5 +120.   Added both.
 

For long shot TD’s Ertz current TD prop is unplayable at +200 / +1400.  Glad I got +300 / +4000 2+ 0.6U / 0.3U before Goedert news came out.     Philly’s only has one other TE in Jack Stoll at +700 / +8000.   Will go 0.4 / 0.2U 2+. there.   Total 1.5U TD props.  
 

That’s 1U ATS, 8U on player props and 1.5U on long shot TD’s.  10.5U is a little higher than I’d like but I’ll be reducing my Sun stake given the smaller slate of games.   The Stoll TD prop is likely chasing but if it was Richard Rodgers there I’d be all over it.  
 

BOL! 

Man, PHI's lack of O exploiting the TAM D until late in the 4Q absolutely killed a bunch of the plays that looked great at halftime.   Brady had 2 TD's after the first 2 drives,  Godwin had 4 catches / 43 yards at halftime, and Ertz had 4 catches after the 1st play in the 3Q.      Then once they were up 28-7, the Bucs went conservative on O, and then played prevent run-soft D in the last drive.... and then slips by AB and then Brate going down half a yard short of the marker helps Tampa extend drives, but not to try and score (either AB doesn't slip, or Brate gets the 4th, and Tampa has to play for the score).....ugly, ugly, ugly.   We play the 2H 10x, I'd say 8x/10 we get TB12 O2.5, Ertz O4.5, and TAM -6.5 covering. 

Still, that's the game.   It's a bad beat, but not the most egregious - just had a total cascade effect on at least 3, if not 4 plays.  Oh well, that's the risk in the game.

So tonight's tally:

ATS - TAM -6.5 - loss. -1U

Player props - 3-5 - AB O5.5, O64.5, Watkins O40.5 all hit easily, while Evans (x2) / D-Smith were bad whiffs, and Ertz/Godwin were bad beats after such a great 1H; the conservative Tampa 2H because the Iggles got down big early in 3Q, were killers.  -2U

TD props - Ertz hits at +300, while Stoll whiffs, so that's still an OK profit at +1.2U.  

NET -1.8U tonight (Tampa scores, I suspect at least 3 L's turn to W's, so can't fault the process, just doesn't always go your way)

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

 

Edited by Broncofan
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On 10/12/2021 at 1:24 AM, Broncofan said:

2 rules of thumb that have served bettors well last year and this year:

1.  Fade KC ATS.  The KC D is bad enough, there's just no way I can give 6+ pts to WFT.  I know WFT is terrible, but this could be a 35-31 KC W....that's pretty much the MO last year, when they won their last 8 of 9 games in the regular season IIRC....and went 0-9 ATS. 

2.  Fade TEN as a favorite, favor them as a dog.   Most maddening team around IMO.   Could see a BUF win on a last minute FG, or a 10-pt lead that TEN backdoors with a late TD (and Henry is the way you keep the game close, by keeping Allen off the field).

 

TAM on a short week is always a concern, although if I was going to lean one way, it would be TAM -7.   The DL edge is massive, and the depth of the TAM weapons really is something else.    Their OL also plays at a MUCH higher level than the CAR OL did - which exposes the PHI weaknesses.  Darnold/CAR OL vs. Brady/TAM OL is a world of difference.   

Other matchups I like (and in the vein of adapting, going with 2 dog picks):

CIN -3 @ DET -110 - gotta admit, 2 things concern me.  First, the OT is always a bad thing the next week.  Secondly, Zac Taylor is absolutely a liability in game prep and management.  He almost cost the team the JAX game, and he did cost the the GB game.  But the talent difference is simply too wide.   Losing Cephus and their OL is going to hurt the Lions a lot more vs. CIN's stout D than it did vs. Minny's D (who still limited them to 18 points).   I see a 27-17 type Cincy win, so gotta take the points here.

LAC ML @ BAL +160, RACE to 20/25/30 - this is all about 5 points.  First, LAC's O is not going to let BAL's D off the hook matchup wise, this is an even worse matchup than IND's O presented.    Secondly, BAL has a short week AND now having played OT.   Thirdly, their team is just decimated with key injuries.    Fourth, LAC actually has played Lamar 2x, so unlike a lot of teams, they are better prepped, and have the speed on D to handle him better than most D's.    Finally, I love John Harbaugh, top 3 coach IMO - but Brandon Staley will not let him gain more win opportunities by metrics and advanced analysis - this is going to be a game management push.  That was a huge minus for Indy tonight - it won't happen with the Chargers & Staley.   To be clear - the 5 reasons aren't why I think the Chargers are a lock - but while I would see a healthy BAL team not having played OT on MNF as a 2-3 pt fave at home, I think the line should now be a straight pick 'em in BAL.     So I'll take the +160  ML, and the race lines will be really favorable (thinking +150 / +240 / +400-ish).   Too much value to pass up.

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 - Gruden getting fired is going to have ppl think that the Raiders are going to be in disarray.  That may be true long-term, but here's the thing - they already know how to beat us. They don't need Gruden to get a good game plan.   And our OL and skill positions are terrible matchups for the Raiders (our OL vs. their pass rush, and our lack of weapons can't make their secondary pay).   On the flip side, the Raiders should be salivating at our recent struggles in defending power run, with a healthier Josh Jacobs there.   And the speed WR's and Darren Waller - we don't have an answer for, Mark Andrews exposed that in spades.    Again, this isn't a lock, but it should be a pick 'em IMO, so I'll gladly take the +160 side, and the favorable RACE lines (thinking +150/+240/+350-ish). 

I think as time goes by, all of the above 3 lines will move to CIN/LAC/LV, so looking to lock those in as soon as they become available (RACES not yet there, CIN -3 and 'dog ML picks in).  Same with TAM at -7.   BOL!

 

So building on the above, which I have in the bank, adding 1 dog & 1 favorite play, and a bunch of player props, and for now, only 1 TD prop (pending) that interests me:

ATS/RACE

CIN -3 @ DET -110 - already placed 2 days ago 

LAC ML @ BAL +160 (now +125 so great value), RACE to 25/30/35 at +210, +350 & +550 - already placed 2 days ago

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 at +150, +240 & +375 - already placed 2 days ago

Adding:

DAL -3 @ NE -110 - if the spread gets to -3, then I'm all over this.  Only 4 games without TB12 where NE is the home dog, and in 2 of them, pouring rain.   No Gilmore either for them.   This IMO is 2-3 points too low.    If it stays at -3.5, I'll have to pass.   EDIT:  And DAL -3 is here.

ARI ML @ CLE +160, RACE to 20/25/30 at +160, +260 & +400 - this is IMO an even matchup, even with C Hudson out - but CLE’s exhausted, and beat up.    I think it's close to a pick 'em, but that value of +160 and RACE payouts is huge, because if ARI gets up, CLE has a hard time catching up. 

JAX ML +140, race to 20/25 (0.5U) each - added Oct 17 early AM

Risk -11.5U (1U for each straight bet, and 0.5 for each RACE bet)  

 

PLAYER PROPS (-110 unless specified)

James Robinson O72.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) - already placed, agree with prior takes.

Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) - placed before TNF, with that heartbreaking loss, don't see Indy laying the foot off the gas until Taylor's put the game away.

Darrell Henderson O74.5 rushing yards (now 76.5) - placed also before TNF.   Positive game script, and a bottom 5 rush D and rush DL.   Sign.  Me.  Up

DeAndre Swift O4.5 catches (PENDING) - until Hockenson is healthy, and with Cephus now on IR, I'll even consider O5.5 at big plus money.    If it's O5.5 at even money....meh.  

Dan Arnold catch/yardage props (PENDING x2 - EDIT OCT 16 - Added at O3.5 catches, O36.5 yards) - no props yet, but I'm guessing it's +money at O3.5 catches, and low 30's yardage - and I'm ALL over it.  I suspect they will focus on J-Rob (but not succeed), and taking away Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault.   Meyer's O absolute peppers the TE, so I expect Vegas odds won't catch up after being at O2.5 for a while.  If it's 4.5/40's, then I'll have to reconsider, but waiting for now.

Ja'Marr Chase O?? yards (PENDING - EDIT Oct 16 - Added at O76.5) - as long as it's sub 80, I'm in.     Top target for Burrow, and ridiculous chemistry with deep game, and YAC monster.   If it's more than 80....sorry, I'm out.  I'm hopefuly it's closer to 70.

Tyreek Hilll O??yards (EDIT OCT 16 - O82.5 - NO BET, REMOVED) - as long as it's around 80, I'm in.    Bounceback spot, and awful pass D vs. chunk play WR's.   

Tim Patrick O4.5 catches +100 (EDIT OCT 16 - NO BET, REMOVED) - he's a 8+ target reliable guy, and the LV secondary is in major trouble, Gruden or no Gruden.  I also believe LV is winning this so I expect catchup in the 2H.  Either way, the value here is nuts.  

Jakobi Meyers O.5.5 catches +125 - the NE top target guy.    Positive game script, and Diggs doesn't follow many guys in the slot.   Great value again.

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +120 - disregard the lower numbers - he's still a target hog.  Difference being, the IND D won't hold him back, but I also expect they will be winning, and create the same kind of positive game script BAL WR's (and TE Andrews got).   Easy call here.

Jaylen Waddle O4.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) - Tua's back, no Parker & no Gesicki, Tua loves Waddle too.   

Darren Waller O5.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) - Denver can't stop the TE, and Waller looking for a big bounceback game.   Easy call IMO.  

 

Risk - 11U 

 


TD PROPS

Ja'marr Chase (ADDED OCT 16) (+150, +800 2+) - normally I stay away from these unless +200 / +1200.  But this is too good a prop, Burrow loses Chase in the RZ and home run.  1.2U & 0.6U

Dan Arnold (+450 / +7500 0.8U/0.4U) - if he's much lower than +300...less interest.  But with MIA's D concentrated at stopping WR's, Arnold's got a great chance.  He got 3 targets inside the 10 yard line.  That's the kind of volume I want at those odds.  As he's not hit yet, I expect them to stay similar to that hopefully.   EDIT:  odds virtually unchanged from last week, fantastic - Sign. Me. Up.

Demetrius Harris (+1000 / +125000 2+ 0.6U/0.3U) - late addition Oct 17) - added just before 4 PM games with 1 PM outcomes back in black.

Risk - 4.8U

 

So far I've posted 15.7U in locked in bets, with 6U more I'll commit to if the #'s are as advertised (EDIT OCT 17 - now 22.0U confirmed with only Swift catches pending), with value payouts.  That 21.7U is about the top limit I'm playing for this week.   Don't want to force picks (and I'll lay off JAX ML as a result, and Lamb yardage plays lol). 

Will update once odds are posted...BOL!

 

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

Edited by Broncofan
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17 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Glad I avoided TB -7. Bad beat for anyone on that side of things. 

Played it early in the week and had them -6 

They were a big teaser leg so all good 

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I may get killed for saying this, but I don't know how you don't see that over/under 49.5 in the Cleveland Arizona and not love the over there. That line of the Browns being favored by 3.5 I just don't know either...

  • Quote

     

    • Cleveland has combined with its opponents to put up more than 49.5 points in three of five games this season.
    • In 80% of Arizona's games this season (4/5), the teams combined to score more than Sunday's total of 49.5.
    • Sunday's over/under is 10.3 points lower than the two team's combined 59.8 points per game average.

     

     

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11 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Glad I avoided TB -7. Bad beat for anyone on that side of things. 

I had Philly +7 on 1 parlay and +7.5 on another, couldn't believe that they went for 2, lol.

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4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I may get killed for saying this, but I don't know how you don't see that over/under 49.5 in the Cleveland Arizona and not love the over there. That line of the Browns being favored by 3.5 I just don't know either...

  •  

Kyler's banged up and the Cardinals have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

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40 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Kyler's banged up and the Cardinals have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

Perhaps so, and hopefully he's really off his game, but I'm personally not a huge fan of Joe Woods or the Browns defense, who is also very banged up.

JMHO

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