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BStanRamFan

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Sunday's slate now in, with Swift's catch total pending - writeup for reasoning on page 117:

ATS/RACE (0.5U)

1 PM games

CIN -3 @ DET -110 

LAC ML @ BAL +160 (now +125 so great value), RACE to 25/30/35 at +210, +350 & +550 

 

4 PM games 

ARI ML @ CLE +160, RACE to 20/25/30 at +160, +260 & +400 

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 at +150, +240 & +375

DAL -3 @ NE -110

Risk - 9.5U 

 

PLAYER PROPS (-110 unless specified)

UK game

James Robinson O72.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) 

Jaylen Waddle O4.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) 

Dan Arnold O3.5 catches, O36.5 yards 

 

1 PM games

Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rushing yards (now 80.5)

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +120 

Darrell Henderson O74.5 rushing yards (now 76.5) 

DeAndre Swift O4.5 catches (PENDING) 

Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 yards

 

4 PM games

Jakobi Meyers O.5.5 catches +125 - 

Darren Waller O5.5 catches +100

 

Risk - 10U with Swift catch total pending

 


TD PROPS

Ja'marr Chase (+150 / +800 - 0.8U / 0.4U)

Dan Arnold (+450 / +6600 - 0.8U / 0.4U)

Risk - 3.0U 

 

TOTAL SUNDAY RISK - 22U, with Swift catch prop pending

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

Had a good Sat in college & MMA so will add JAX ML & RACE 20/25 (0.5U) & Swift O34.5 -105 receiving yards since 04.5 juiced to -140.  
 

BOL! 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
On 10/16/2021 at 11:47 AM, Broncofan said:

Sunday's slate now in, with Swift's catch total pending - writeup for reasoning on page 117:

ATS/RACE (0.5U)

UK game

JAX ML +140, Race to 20/25 

 

1 PM games

CIN -3 @ DET -110 

LAC ML @ BAL +160 (now +125 so great value), RACE to 25/30/35 at +210, +350 & +550 

 

4 PM games 

ARI ML @ CLE +160, RACE to 20/25/30 at +160, +260 & +400 

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 at +150, +240 & +375

DAL -3 @ NE -110

Risk - 11.5U

 

PLAYER PROPS (-110 unless specified)

UK game

James Robinson O72.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) 

Jaylen Waddle O4.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) 

Dan Arnold O3.5 catches, O36.5 yards 

 

1 PM games

Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rushing yards (now 80.5)

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +120 

Darrell Henderson O74.5 rushing yards (now 76.5) 

DeAndre Swift O34.5 receiving yards   

Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 yards

 

4 PM games

Jakobi Meyers O.5.5 catches +125 - 

Darren Waller O5.5 catches +100

 

Risk - 11U 

 


TD PROPS

Ja'marr Chase (+150 / +800 - 1.2U / 0.6 U)

Dan Arnold (+450 / +6600 - 1.6U /  0.8U

Risk - 4.2U

 

TOTAL SUNDAY RISK - 26.2U

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

Jax ML +140 -win 

Jax RACE to 20/25 (0.5U) -  loss x2, the 20 sucked hard since Meyer brain cramped his way with horrible game sequence (FG or run on 3rd and not a pass with your blocking unit and Treadwell as your targets then dive off tackle with no FB against loaded front).  
 

Arnold x2, TD prop - all lose; Arnold drops a 10 yard slant with safety at GL only guy to stop him and gets a helmet to helmet hit on 20 yard pass that he stops playing snaps for at least half the game.   Brutal but that’s the way it goes.  
 

JRob o72.5 - the flip side is this one hits at last run lol.   Helps take the sting out.  
 

Waddle O4.5, Shenault O40.5 - win x2. 


Net - -0.8U; Arnold no drop early and Meyer not being an idiot easily could have swung 3 bets but could have been WAY worse lol.   I’ll take it.   So far week 6 is -2U.  

 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 10/16/2021 at 11:47 AM, Broncofan said:

Sunday's slate now in, with Swift's catch total pending - writeup for reasoning on page 117:

ATS/RACE (0.5U)

UK game

JAX ML +140, Race to 20/25 

 

1 PM games

CIN -3 @ DET -110 

LAC ML @ BAL +160 (now +125 so great value), RACE to 25/30/35 at +210, +350 & +550 

 

4 PM games 

ARI ML @ CLE +160, RACE to 20/25/30 at +160, +260 & +400 

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 at +150, +240 & +375

DAL -3 @ NE -110

Risk - 11.5U

 

PLAYER PROPS (-110 unless specified)

UK game

James Robinson O72.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) 

Jaylen Waddle O4.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) 

Dan Arnold O3.5 catches, O36.5 yards 

 

1 PM games

Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rushing yards (now 80.5)

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +120 

Darrell Henderson O74.5 rushing yards (now 76.5) 

DeAndre Swift O34.5 receiving yards   

Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 yards

 

4 PM games

Jakobi Meyers O.5.5 catches +125 - 

Darren Waller O5.5 catches +100

 

Risk - 11U 

 


TD PROPS

Ja'marr Chase (+150 / +800 - 1.2U / 0.6 U)

Dan Arnold (+450 / +6600 - 1.6U /  0.8U

Risk - 4.2U

 

TOTAL SUNDAY RISK - 26.2U

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

 

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Jax ML +140 -win 

Jax RACE to 20/25 (0.5U) -  loss x2, the 20 sucked hard since Meyer brain cramped his way with horrible game sequence (FG or run on 3rd and not a pass with your blocking unit and Treadwell as your targets then dive off tackle with no FB against loaded front).  
 

Arnold x2, TD prop - all lose; Arnold drops a 10 yard slant with safety at GL only guy to stop him and gets a helmet to helmet hit on 20 yard pass that he stops playing snaps for at least half the game.   Brutal but that’s the way it goes.  
 

JRob o72.5 - the flip side is this one hits at last run lol.   Helps take the sting out.  
 

Waddle O4.5, Shenault O40.5 - win x2. 


Net - -0.8U; Arnold no drop early and Meyer not being an idiot easily could have swung 3 bets but could have been WAY worse lol.   I’ll take it.   So far week 6 is -2U.  

 

The 1 PM slate, after bad break with Arnold & Urban Meyer's boneheaded move costs 3 props in the UK one, however, goes great:

CIN - 3 - easy money.

LAC ML / race to 25/30/35 - HUGE whiff.  Full credit to the BAL D.   Just a big miss

Swift O34.5 receiving yards, Taylor O79.5 rush yards, Henderson O74.5 rush yards, Chase O76.5 receiving yards, Cooks O5.5 catches +120 - all hit (WOOHOO).

With the +money, net +3.4U profit for 1PM - which puts me at +1.4U for the week now.

Still have coming up at 4 PM:

DAL -3 

ARI ML, race to 20/25/30

LV ML, race to 15/20/25

Waller O5.5 catches +120

Meyers O5.5 catches +110

Added a late TD prop - with no TE's, the guy who had 50+ percent snap share last week, Demetrius Harris, is somehow +1000/+125000 2+, so I'll go 0.6U / 0.3U...with a profit, and only 8U at stake, will add 0.9U more to the 4 PM slate.  BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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11sanchez11

11sanchez11

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

some of my bets this week:

KC -6.5, Dal -4.5, LAC + 3.5, HOU +10

HOU/IND O 43.5, CIN/DET U 48

Hunt U 116.5 Rush + REC yards,  J Jefferson O 72, D. Mills O 220, D. Adams U 98, M. Andrews O 60, Ekeler O 42 REC, J. Robinson O 73

parlays:

HOU/IND O 43.5, KC ML, DAL ML, PIT ML (was +480 iirc)

Jefferson O 72, KC, Rams, Hunt U 116 (around +600 iirc)

 

Went 6/7 on player probs. And JRob missed out by 1 yard smh. 

Hit the parlay. 

And bet AZ to win. 

Super productive Sunday. 

When Mahomes threw that 2nd ridiculous INT everything was going bad but it turned around real quick. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 10/15/2021 at 12:44 AM, Broncofan said:

So building on the above, which I have in the bank, adding 1 dog & 1 favorite play, and a bunch of player props, and for now, only 1 TD prop (pending) that interests me:

ATS/RACE

CIN -3 @ DET -110 - already placed 2 days ago 

LAC ML @ BAL +160 (now +125 so great value), RACE to 25/30/35 at +210, +350 & +550 - already placed 2 days ago

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 at +150, +240 & +375 - already placed 2 days ago

Adding:

DAL -3 @ NE -110 - if the spread gets to -3, then I'm all over this.  Only 4 games without TB12 where NE is the home dog, and in 2 of them, pouring rain.   No Gilmore either for them.   This IMO is 2-3 points too low.    If it stays at -3.5, I'll have to pass.   EDIT:  And DAL -3 is here.

ARI ML @ CLE +160, RACE to 20/25/30 at +160, +260 & +400 - this is IMO an even matchup, even with C Hudson out - but CLE’s exhausted, and beat up.    I think it's close to a pick 'em, but that value of +160 and RACE payouts is huge, because if ARI gets up, CLE has a hard time catching up. 

JAX ML +140, race to 20/25 (0.5U) each - added Oct 17 early AM

Risk -11.5U (1U for each straight bet, and 0.5 for each RACE bet)  

 

PLAYER PROPS (-110 unless specified)

James Robinson O72.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) - already placed, agree with prior takes.

Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) - placed before TNF, with that heartbreaking loss, don't see Indy laying the foot off the gas until Taylor's put the game away.

Darrell Henderson O74.5 rushing yards (now 76.5) - placed also before TNF.   Positive game script, and a bottom 5 rush D and rush DL.   Sign.  Me.  Up

DeAndre Swift O34.5 yards - until Hockenson is healthy, and with Cephus now on IR, I'll even consider O5.5 at big plus money.    If it's O5.5 at even money....meh.  

Dan Arnold catch/yardage props (PENDING x2 - EDIT OCT 16 - Added at O3.5 catches, O36.5 yards) - no props yet, but I'm guessing it's +money at O3.5 catches, and low 30's yardage - and I'm ALL over it.  I suspect they will focus on J-Rob (but not succeed), and taking away Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault.   Meyer's O absolute peppers the TE, so I expect Vegas odds won't catch up after being at O2.5 for a while.  If it's 4.5/40's, then I'll have to reconsider, but waiting for now.

Ja'Marr Chase O?? yards (PENDING - EDIT Oct 16 - Added at O76.5) - as long as it's sub 80, I'm in.     Top target for Burrow, and ridiculous chemistry with deep game, and YAC monster.   If it's more than 80....sorry, I'm out.  I'm hopefuly it's closer to 70.

Tyreek Hilll O??yards (EDIT OCT 16 - O82.5 - NO BET, REMOVED) - as long as it's around 80, I'm in.    Bounceback spot, and awful pass D vs. chunk play WR's.   

Tim Patrick O4.5 catches +100 (EDIT OCT 16 - NO BET, REMOVED) - he's a 8+ target reliable guy, and the LV secondary is in major trouble, Gruden or no Gruden.  I also believe LV is winning this so I expect catchup in the 2H.  Either way, the value here is nuts.  

Jakobi Meyers O.5.5 catches +125 - the NE top target guy.    Positive game script, and Diggs doesn't follow many guys in the slot.   Great value again.

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +120 - disregard the lower numbers - he's still a target hog.  Difference being, the IND D won't hold him back, but I also expect they will be winning, and create the same kind of positive game script BAL WR's (and TE Andrews got).   Easy call here.

Jaylen Waddle O4.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) - Tua's back, no Parker & no Gesicki, Tua loves Waddle too.   

Darren Waller O5.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) - Denver can't stop the TE, and Waller looking for a big bounceback game.   Easy call IMO.  

 

Risk - 11U 

 


TD PROPS

Ja'marr Chase (ADDED OCT 16) (+150, +800 2+) - normally I stay away from these unless +200 / +1200.  But this is too good a prop, Burrow loses Chase in the RZ and home run.  1.2U & 0.6U

Dan Arnold (+450 / +7500 0.8U/0.4U) - if he's much lower than +300...less interest.  But with MIA's D concentrated at stopping WR's, Arnold's got a great chance.  He got 3 targets inside the 10 yard line.  That's the kind of volume I want at those odds.  As he's not hit yet, I expect them to stay similar to that hopefully.   EDIT:  odds virtually unchanged from last week, fantastic - Sign. Me. Up.

Demetrius Harris (+1000 / +125000 2+ 0.6U/0.3U) - late addition Oct 17) - added just before 4 PM games with 1 PM outcomes back in black.

Risk - 4.8U

 

So far I've posted 15.7U in locked in bets, with 6U more I'll commit to if the #'s are as advertised (EDIT OCT 17 - now 22.0U confirmed with only Swift catches pending), with value payouts.  That 21.7U is about the top limit I'm playing for this week.   Don't want to force picks (and I'll lay off JAX ML as a result, and Lamb yardage plays lol). 

Will update once odds are posted...BOL!

 

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

Week 6 Summary 

ATS/RACE

ATS (incl. ML) - 5-1 (LAC ML loses badly; CIN -3, JAX ML +140, ARI +160, LV +160 & of course DAL -3 all win) - +3.5U profit

RACE - 2-2 (LAC loses, JAX loses <the race to 20 L was a massive bad beat>; but ARI / LV sweep and win big - +4.8U profit

Sunday net - +8.3 profit

PLAYER PROPS

7-4 (Waller loses by 0.5, Meyers loses by 0.5, Arnold loses x2, TNF lose Brown/Evans - drops likely TD, then gets helmet-to-helmet for yardage winner - ugh ugh - everyone else wins - Taylor O79.5, J-Robinson O72.5 (whew), Henderson O72.5, Waddle O40.5, Chase O76.5, Swift O34.5, Cooks O5.5 +120 all win).   

Sunday net - +2.8U


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

0-3 - Chase (gets dragged down by last guy on the 53 yarder at 20), Arnold (drops the slant with a clear path), and Harris (no chance) all lose.   Only regret Harris lol.   

Sunday net - -4.5U

Sunday NET - +6.6U (27.2U stake)

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 up to SNF

ATS 18-11; 5-5 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +32.2U profit

Player props - 68-52, +14.8U profit

TD - 6-18, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +19.9U so far 

Net balance:  +66.9U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U  Week 6 - +4.8U)

 

 

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

$5k parlay didn't hit cause the Steelers didn't cover, F me, lol.

Was that the last leg?   Dude you gotta think about hedging.   When Pit was up 7 no doubt you could’ve hedged out.   When it’s a big payout like that the whole point of a last leg being on its own is to give the hedge.   Sometimes you can get lucky and hit both sides (Say if you got sea +12.5 then if Pit won by 6 you’d be golden). 

Edited by Broncofan
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NYRaider

NYRaider

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Was that the last leg?   Dude you gotta think about hedging.   When Pit was up 7 no doubt you could’ve hedged out.   When it’s a big payout like that the whole point of a last leg being on its own is to give the hedge.   Sometimes you can get lucky and hit both sides (Say if you got sea +12.5 then if Pit won by 6 you’d be golden). 

My bookie doesn't allow hedging and I needed Steelers to cover 4.5 to win.

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