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Weekly Bets Thread


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3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Emmanuel Sanders +430 to lead the game in receiving yards is an interesting long shot. 

Rule of thumb - when it's man, Sanders becomes the WR2 for BUF.   When it's zone, then it's Beasley.  There's always a decent chance that the WR2 outperforms Diggs (although you do need to include Knox, albeit not tonight IMO - the TEN safeties are better than the CB's IMO).   +430 is a good value, I won't take it since I'm heavy on Allen & other plays but can't fault the thinking at all.

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10 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Emmanuel Sanders +430 to lead the game in receiving yards is an interesting long shot. 

Thats not a bad long shot, he has been on fire recently

In a game with 3 of the top 15 WRs in the NFL, its hard for me to make that bet though.

my longshot is sanders to score the first TD for +1000

BILLS MAFIA

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Couple of bets I like for week 7

 

 

Browns (-4.5). This is a crazy number to me. I think they’ll beat Denver by double digits on TNF.

 

 

Patriots (-1)/Rams (-9.5) teaser. Usually I like teasing 7-9.5 point favourites down to within a field goal and narrow underdogs up through 3 and 7, but I struggled to find a dance partner for NE this week. Rams are laying a huge 15.5 against the Lions so I like teasing them down through the key numbers of 10 and 14. 

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20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Rule of thumb - when it's man, Sanders becomes the WR2 for BUF.   When it's zone, then it's Beasley.  There's always a decent chance that the WR2 outperforms Diggs (although you do need to include Knox, albeit not tonight IMO - the TEN safeties are better than the CB's IMO).   +430 is a good value, I won't take it since I'm heavy on Allen & other plays but can't fault the thinking at all.

Sanders also oddly leads the team's receiving options in snap% and targets over 20 yards. I had to sprinkle it with that kinda juice against this secondary. 

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3 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Put together this fun little parlay 

Over 49.5 rec yards for AJ

Over 79.5 rushing yards Henry

Over 35 rec yards 

At least 1 passing TD for Tanny

Henry anytime score

Bills at least 2 passing TDs

Over 69.5 rec yards Diggs

+700 so let’s see if this can hit will be fun to follow

Misses cause Tanny couldn't throw a TD pass

 

4 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Derrick Henry 125 plus rushing yards +210

Titans +6.5 

 

But these two hit BIG! 

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4 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Emmanuel Sanders +430 to lead the game in receiving yards is an interesting long shot. 

So he tied AJ Brown and edged Diggs (called it!).   Do you get it all or do you win +215?  Either way nice W.  
 

For me THAT close to a sweep.  
 

-Allen 02.5TD 2U +170 - cash it baby!   Easy 3.4U profit.  
 

-Sanders O54.5 rec yards - easy W by the mid 3Q.   
 

-Henry O13.5 yards - HORRIFIC bad beat.   6 targets - 2 catches & 13 yards.   But it’s worse than missing by 1 yards - 2 called back by penalty, both would have won it.   Worst of all, the refs botched a 1Q call - D holding meant the play should have counted and the 5 yards added - instead they only counted the penalty not the 8 yard catch.   BRUTAL.   
 

Still a nice night - 3.4U profit, didn’t have to sweat the game.   Glad @N4L got the hedge lol.   Every given (Mon)Sunday….

Edited by Broncofan
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On 10/17/2021 at 8:03 PM, Broncofan said:

Week 6 Summary 

ATS/RACE

ATS (incl. ML) - 5-1 (LAC ML loses badly; CIN -3, JAX ML +140, ARI +160, LV +160 & of course DAL -3 all win) - +3.5U profit

RACE - 2-2 (LAC loses, JAX loses <the race to 20 L was a massive bad beat>; but ARI / LV sweep and win big - +4.8U profit

Sunday net - +8.3 profit

PLAYER PROPS

7-4 (Waller loses by 0.5, Meyers loses by 0.5, Arnold loses x2, TNF lose Brown/Evans - drops likely TD, then gets helmet-to-helmet for yardage winner - ugh ugh - everyone else wins - Taylor O79.5, J-Robinson O72.5 (whew), Henderson O72.5, Waddle O40.5, Chase O76.5, Swift O34.5, Cooks O5.5 +120 all win).   

Sunday net - +2.8U


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

0-3 - Chase (gets dragged down by last guy on the 53 yarder at 20), Arnold (drops the slant with a clear path), and Harris (no chance) all lose.   Only regret Harris lol.   

Sunday net - -4.5U

Sunday NET - +6.6U (27.2U stake)

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 up to SNF

ATS 18-11; 5-5 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +32.2U profit

Player props - 68-52, +14.8U profit

TD - 6-18, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +19.9U so far 

Net balance:  +66.9U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U  Week 6 - +4.8U)

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

So he tied AJ Brown and edged Diggs (called it!).   Do you get it all or do you win +215?  Either way nice W.  
 

For me THAT close to a sweep.  
 

-Allen 02.5U 2TD +170 - cash it baby!   Easy 3.4U profit.  
 

-Sanders O54.5 rec yards - easy W by the mid 3Q.   
 

-Henry O13.5 yards - HORRIFIC bad beat.   6 targets - 2 catches & 13 yards.   But it’s worse than missing by 1 yards - 2 called back by penalty, both would have won it.   Worst of all, the refs botched a 1Q call - D holding meant the play should have counted and the 5 yards added - instead they only counted the penalty not the 8 yard catch.   BRUTAL.   
 

Still a nice night - 3.4U profit, didn’t have to sweat the game.   Glad @N4L got the hedge lol.   Every given (Mon)Sunday….

 

FINAL Week 6 Tally with MNF added:

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 FINAL

ATS 18-11; 5-5 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +32.2U profit

Player props - 70-53, +18.2U profit

TD - 6-18, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +19.9U so far 

Net balance:  +70.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U)

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, N4L said:

I have a big ML parlay to pay four figures with the only remaining leg is bills ML. If I didn't have that parlay, I'd be all over buf -6

I'm debating hedging with Titans ML but I think I may play the over as a correlated hedge. Titans aren't winning a low scoring game with that defense against the bills. I am hoping to win both 

Give me the diggs/Sanders over yards. Feels like diggs breakout game. 

AJB receiving yards is in the low 50s? Considering that but may just stick to diggs/Sanders 

Hell yeah!! 

Over 53, over Sanders yards, over diggs yards, over AJB yards all hit 

Big shout out to @Broncofan for being the voice of reason and convincing me to hedge

I also did the over 29.5 buffalo team total but I know I didn't post it in this thread. The only two bets today I placed that lost were Sanders first TD scorer (he was open in the endzone prior to Henry's first TD and Josh was rolling that direction and just didn't see him) and the buffalo teaser I placed with Vegas and the saints. 

excellent weekend. I'll enjoy it but I won't get carried away by it. Very important to stay grounded and stick to your process after a profitable few days 

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1 hour ago, MikeT14 said:

Broncos +3.5 seems pretty good.

I’ll wait to hear BroncoFans thoughts here being his team, but that Denver defense looks incredibly shaky right now. Even without Chubb & Hunt, I expect that CLE OLine to generate push on the opposing front. 

Wouldn’t blame you at all for grabbing it at +3.5 though. I could see it move to a flat +3 here soon. 

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