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There's a TNF prop that ppl need to hammer hard now.

D'Ernst Johnson O60.5 yard rushing -110 2U.   Thinking VERY hard of doing 4U, TBH.   Both Chubb and K-Hunt are ruled out, the other RB who's active is Felton, but he's a pure pass catcher (he's literally lined up as a wide receiver for the majority of his snaps).  The backup RB is someone signed to the PS this week (John Kelley) who won't have the playbook down at all.  And Johnson has stepped in 2-3x in 2020, and played well.    So he has the coaching staff's trust. 

Denver's starting ILB's Josey Jewell & Alexander Johnson are out for the season.   The top 2 backups are likely out, leaving guys not on the roster 2 weeks ago and 2nd year project Justin Strnad (who's not ready) as the starters.     The CLE RB is going for 80+ yards easy, and likely 100+.    

Get it now.   The line is at least 20 yards too low vs. DEN this week.

 

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I’m getting Colts +4 at +100 and having a hard time convincing myself not to play this. They have a very strong run defense and JT is absolutely cooking right now. I know the Colts have some key injuries of their own, but the Niners will be missing Kittle and reintroducing Jimmy G to the offense. 
 

If not straight up, the Colts will be a teaser lock for me. 

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I know its a crazy high number, but is there any way that the chiefs titans game doesnt go over 57.5 points?? 

Titans secondary is obliterated. They have lost a lot of corners. KCs speed at WR is going to be a big problem for them. 

KCs defense was better this week after making some personnel changes, but King Henry should run wild on them

I guess pace is a concern. Both teams may try and operate slowly to give their defense as much rest as possible because they know the other team can score. 

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15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

There's a TNF prop that ppl need to hammer hard now.

D'Ernst Johnson O60.5 yard rushing -110 2U.   Thinking VERY hard of doing 4U, TBH.   Both Chubb and K-Hunt are ruled out, the other RB who's active is Felton, but he's a pure pass catcher (he's literally lined up as a wide receiver for the majority of his snaps).  The backup RB is someone signed to the PS this week (John Kelley) who won't have the playbook down at all.  And Johnson has stepped in 2-3x in 2020, and played well.    So he has the coaching staff's trust. 

Denver's starting ILB's Josey Jewell & Alexander Johnson are out for the season.   The top 2 backups are likely out, leaving guys not on the roster 2 weeks ago and 2nd year project Justin Strnad (who's not ready) as the starters.     The CLE RB is going for 80+ yards easy, and likely 100+.    

Get it now.   The line is at least 20 yards too low vs. DEN this week.

 

Interestingly, action is on the under, so now it's D'Ernest Johnson O59.5 - 105.   I'll gladly take that for 2U.

I also like Courtland Sutton O65.5 yards with the Baker news.   The CLE run game should still be successful, but I don't foresee CLE dominating ToP with Keenum as the QB.  On the flip side, I expect Sutton to have a lot of success vs. the CLE secondary.   

I do have 2 longshot TD props this week - both on Den's side.   First, I'll go with Kendall Hinton +450 TD / +6600 2+ for 0.8U/0.4U, and then John Brown +1000 TD / +125000 2+ for 0.55U/0.25U (2U total TD props).   The CLE secondary is really vulnerable, and Hinton's had his RZ looks (and caught at TD vs. PIT).   Brown has just joined the team, but he's their only true speed threat, so we might see at least 1 home run shot, if not 2.  This is about the value, rather than the probability, which is why the stakes are even lower than normal.


As for early week 7 action, I'm going to take 3 ATS, and 2 underdog ML / RACE plays:

CAR -3 @ NYG - I get it, Panthers are struggling, coming off a gutwrenching OT loss and 3 in a row.   And Sam Darnold's definitely regressed.   But here's the thing - their D is legit, and now going to get Stephon Gilmore.   They're about to get CJ Henderson back.   And they get after the QB.   Versus a NYG OL that just lost more key starters, and are playing backups / subpar starters across the line.  The NYG O won't have Barkley, Toney, Golladay at the very least, if not more guys missing.   On the flip side, the Gmen D can't stop the run or pass.   Their top CB Bradberry is no longer an island CB, which means it's a game DJ Moore & co. likely feast on.  Honestly, I think the Panthers get healthy on both sides of the ball Sunday, and win this by 2+ scores going away.   

TEN +5.5 vs. KC -  I've just come to accept that you respect TEN as a dog (especially a home one), but fade them as favorites.   This is no different.   I'm not calling for the upset, but I avoided BUF -5.5, I'm certainly not going to take the KC side, when their D has even bigger issues to try and contain Henry and AJ Brown/Tanny pass game (no Julio makes it easier).

CIN +6 @ BAL - this is mostly about 3 factors.  First, CIN's D is legit.  Tough against the pass, and way better against the run than in prior years.    Second, their O has balance, and Burrow is really getting the rust off.  Finally, being an intradivisional game - this always narrows the perceived gap.   Don't get me wrong -  I see BAL winning a 27-24 or maybe 27-23 type game.  BAL is the better team.   They have slight but clear edges on both sides of the ball.   But giving 6 pts, I'll lean Cincy (and hope the one glaring disadvantage in game management/coaching with Zac Taylor vs. Harbaugh doesn't bite me hard here).

MIA +120 ML vs. ATL, RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 / +210 / +325) - but wait, didn't I bet JAX ML last week vs. MIA in UK?  And isn't MIA coming back on a travel week vs. ATL on a bye?  Yes on all counts.   This is about ATL more than it is about MIA (although Tua playing well is a big part of my decision here).   ATL beat the Jets & Giants - and that's giving them a road favorite -3 status?   Start of season this would have been MIA -6 or more.    This is classic recency bias - especially when you factor in that ATL's OL is still a huge problem (so they can't run on MIA's D like everyone else has been able to - DVOA 32nd in run blocking).   Matt Ryan does OK when he's kept clean - get pressure, and he sees ghosts.   NYG & NYJ didn't get sustained pressure (nor did WFT, which is surprising).  While MIA lost last week, they were in Trevor Lawrence's face, he just played really well (so did Tua, other than the one brain cramp throw).    It's by no means a lock MIA's winning - but they should be the favorites, so getting plus money is too a chance to pass up.   And the races even more, given the inflated payouts.

IND +150 ML @ SF, RACE to 15/20/25 (+170/+260/+425) MNF - this one's about the value again.   Indy IMO is a pick 'em call with SF.   JimmyG coming back isn't any better than Wentz 2021, and while Frank Reich has been awful at game management in-game, Kyle Shanahan isn't either (he's excels at pre-game planning and preparation, in-game not so much).   Reich is the biggest reason why IND could lose, though.    No Kittle makes it far easier for Eberfleus to defend against the Niner O, and we saw what he did for 3+ quarters until injuries in-game and fatigue wore out the Indy D (and Reich's awful game management failing to maximize point opps).   For this to materialize though, Reich has to stop his asinine RB rotation, and force feed Jonathan Taylor the ball.   Hopefully he got the memo after Taylor's 2H explosion vs. Houston last week (vs. 2 carries and 1 catch in the 1H).  Again another case where it's a pick 'em, the safe call would be to take the points, but the payouts are so good for the risk.  


Sunday player props aren't out yet, so that's it for now - BOL!

 

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13 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I’m getting Colts +4 at +100 and having a hard time convincing myself not to play this. They have a very strong run defense and JT is absolutely cooking right now. I know the Colts have some key injuries of their own, but the Niners will be missing Kittle and reintroducing Jimmy G to the offense. 
 

If not straight up, the Colts will be a teaser lock for me. 

I actually took IND ML.  The one reason I'm a little leery is Frank Reich, both in how he limits Jonathan Taylor's usage for Mack (which is totally asinine), and his game management decisions which fails to maximize their win potential (on full display MNF @ BAL).     It's not even that I'm calling the IND victory as a lock - just IND has more paths to victory with J-Taylor / Wentz than I see with JimmyG / no Kittle (sorry @N4L).   

There's a really neat stat that shows that if an underdog covers +6 or less - they win the game outright >75 percent of the time.   I won't do it for TEN +5.5 or even CIN +6 because they're on the edge, but I've noticed this trend still holds......so while the safe thing is IND +4, I'm going for the value that both the ML and RACES offer.

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We are very much on the same page @Broncofan. I love Miami +2.5 at home with Tua having a game under his belt post injury. I also LOVE teasing the Dolphins here, as even if they do lose, Atlanta's biggest win this year was a 7 point win against the Jets in London where they dominated the majority of that game. Getting Miami up to +8.5 or more is tasty. 


100% agree with you on the Panthers love as well. I already hit that and teased the Under in that game. Rhule has indicated the offense is going to slow down and focus on running the ball more (Carolina currently top 10 in pace of play). Combine that with a Giants offense down arguably their 3 most important pieces (Barkley, Toney, and Andrew Thomas) and I doubt they look to push pace of play themselves.


The Titans always seem to play the Chiefs tough and they're coming off a huge win. The Chiefs looked MISERABLE in the 1st half of that WFT game before the mistake-prone opposition essentially gave the game away. 

 

 

I guess I'm hopping on the D'Ernest bandwagon tonight. 

 

 

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FWIW, I also really like the Under in the SF/IND game. I tend to play scared and tease stuff like this, but I also like the original U44 points. 

 

The 49ers are pretty consistently middle of the pack in pace of play and the Colts run defense is stingy, which should really force Jimmy G's hand without Kittle. On the other side, the Colts have recently really slowed down (bottom 10 in pace of play) and most recently struggled against a hapless Texans defense. 

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13 hours ago, N4L said:

I guess pace is a concern. Both teams may try and operate slowly to give their defense as much rest as possible because they know the other team can score.

That would go against their recent trends. Over their last 3 games played, KC ranks #1 in pace of play and TEN isn't far behind at #7. These teams know each other well enough to understand that a conservative game plan is not the way to win. 

 

General question for the group here. I'm obviously a big teaser. Far more belief in myself finding 2+ games with alternate lines than a single game at Vegas' line. I've also just had far more success with 2, 3, 4-team teasers than I have straight up O/U or ATS, which are created to be near coin flips. So, why is the straight up play seen as the smarter play?


As far as O/U are concerned, I love teasing all of these this week (not together, but a combo of any 2 of these looks like a strong play). 


KC/TEN O50

NO/SEA U50.5 (two slowest paced teams this season) 

NYJ/NE U50 (two slowest paced teams over last 3 games) 

CAR/NYG U50 (already mentioned this one) 

IND/SF U50 (already mentioned this one) 

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1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

 

General question for the group here. I'm obviously a big teaser. Far more belief in myself finding 2+ games with alternate lines than a single game at Vegas' line. I've also just had far more success with 2, 3, 4-team teasers than I have straight up O/U or ATS, which are created to be near coin flips. So, why is the straight up play seen as the smarter play?

 

The reason why single plays are more profitable than teasers are for 3 reasons:

1.   Teasers have a fixed payout.   As I mentioned, approximately 75 percent of dogs who cover ATS with +6 or less also win the game.   ML's for dogs are uber profitable, and RACES even more so.   You don't even need to hit 40 percent correct to be profitable. 

2.  Single plays are riskier in theory - but they are also only subject to variance for 1 game.  With teasers, you could make great calls on both games, but random variance alone means some of those games won't hit (TAM going -4 vs. DAL on TNF is a great example, taking TAM -4 IIRC would have been a play that likely hits 7-8x/10 with the rosters and their comfort levels with returning/schemes/etc.).  Now, the whole point of teasers is that it gives more leeway - but in the long run, that introduction of variance 2x outweighs the extra 6 pts gained in most cases.  It's even worse once you add 3 or 4 games.   

3.  The combination of 1 & 2 creates a system where even if you hit 55-60 percent of your teasers - the -110 money means you have to be right at 55 percent of the time to make $.   Realistically, that's tough.    Great 'cappers run at 55-58 percent, the Holy Grail season is 60 percent.    On the other hand, if you're willing to take underdog plays and +money, you're introducing a MUCH higher ceiling, and you also lower your %correct to be profitable.

As an example, I'm 5-3 with RACE's - which is outstanding (I'm sure it will correct eventually lol).  But I'm not just ahead 1.8U - I'm ahead about 18-20U of my 32.2U profit with ATS/RACE (and I'm about 12-14U up with ATS because I take dog ML plays at +money too, not just favorites).   But I could go 0-4 with RACES (and lose 1.5U per bet since I usually take 3 bets at 0.5U each) - and still be ahead +12-14U with a 5-7 record.   

The final caveat - in order to do this, you HAVE to use a bankroll that can take the fluctuations with making multiple single-game bets.  That's the other attraction of teasers - you risk less money but have $ in more games at once.  It's also why parleys are so popular, same idea, and the lure of the big payout.  But teasers and parleys are DEMONSTRATED by ROI analysis as less profitable over time than straight-line betting.   The assumption, however, is that you bet with a big enough stack you can take the big swings up & down.  It's one of the reasons I show my bet risk each week (I use a 100U stack, and I try to never have more than 20-25U on weeks I like - and that's with my current success rate).   If you can only put in 1-2 bets a week, or have a fixed bankroll and want action on multiple games, that's where teasers have a ton of appeal, and rightfully so.   Just realize over the long run, if you're committed to betting with a large enough stack, it's not as profitable for the reasons above (and parleys alone are truly the sucker's bet on ROI).

Hope that helps,

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23 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I’ll wait to hear BroncoFans thoughts here being his team, but that Denver defense looks incredibly shaky right now. Even without Chubb & Hunt, I expect that CLE OLine to generate push on the opposing front. 

Wouldn’t blame you at all for grabbing it at +3.5 though. I could see it move to a flat +3 here soon. 

I would stay far, far, far away from DEN-CLE line.  

Yes, OMG Case Keenum sucks.    Yes, there is no Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb.

Here's the thing though - the one guy who made Keenum OK for one year - Minnesota OC Kevin Stefanski in 2017.   And the formula was a top 10 OL, a great run game, and a D that only allowed 17 pts per game, so no pressure on Keenum to produce points.   Against DEN, the CLE D isn't great (see below for more), but they may be able to create a similar situation with DEN not scoring a ton (17-20 pts).

Now, we know Keenum is NOWHERE near as good a thrower as Baker (Baker's card is accuracy and placement, the rest are far more average skill-wise).   And he makes so many bad decisions, and tries to be a gunslinger without a gunslinger arm.  

But the DEN D is terrible against the run on the DL, and relied on ILB Josey Jewell & Alexander Johnson to stop the run.  Both guys are out.   Both the main backups are out, leaving a not-ready Justin Strnad and a guy not even on the 53-man roster 2 weeks ago likely to start.   And our CB's and S Kareem Jackson haven't been able to keep up with speed guys (Jackson & Kyle Fuller have lost that half-step that's the difference from being there in blanket coverage to being beat).     Von Miller could have a HAM-type game to help protect the secondary, but teams have caught on that no one else is a threat, so he's seeing a ton of double/chips added, and it's curtailed his production significantly the last 3 weeks.   

On the flip side, CLE's secondary can't cover anyone with all their injuries, but DEN doesn't have any speed guys with both Jeudy & Hamler out.  Secondaries haven't needed to worry about being beat deep, and that's helped their coverage immensely.  Finally, our OL has had major issues with pass protection, and that's exposed Teddy Bridgewater's limitations (fine game manager, won't lose the game for you - but won't win it for you either).   The one thing that CLE does really well - get after the QB.   That should continue vs. our OL.

I also can't endorse the CW that ppl should hammer the U41 - the D's are both that bad in their present form.  On the other hand, backing Case Keenum and the DEN O?   Ugh on both sides.

So yeah, stay the **** away from DEN-CLE.   Honestly, I can't fault taking points, but this is far from a must-bet.  And worse - we don't know whether CLE's T's Conklin & Wills, or Jarvis Landry play.  If all 3 play, I still have CLE (but it's closer to 3 pts than the 2+ scores I had with Baker, Landry &  2 T's back).  If Wills & Landry miss, then DEN +3.5 makes a ton of sense.  But we don't know.     So...stay away.   

I think the player props are FAR more value-based.     

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35 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Hope that helps,

It does. It admittedly doesn't convince me to stay away from them, simply because my personal track record is SO much better with teasers, but the math maths. I prefer my odds of picking 2 ATS or O/U out of like 20 options and fixing the line rather than playing into Vegas' coin flip on 1 pick.

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1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

It does. It admittedly doesn't convince me to stay away from them, simply because my personal track record is SO much better with teasers, but the math maths. I prefer my odds of picking 2 ATS or O/U out of like 20 options and fixing the line rather than playing into Vegas' coin flip on 1 pick.

Well, that's the thing - especially if you're only doing 1-2 plays a week, then you're really narrowing the focus to what you like the most.  The benefit of single bets vs. teasers ROI-wise is over time, over large numbers of bets.   The risk inherent with taking +money bets if you're only making 1-2 bets each week means there is a LOT bigger swings in bankroll, too.   The math clearly shows the benefit to the ATS / ML single bets - but it assumes a large bankroll, and a high enough volume of picks where the difference plays out.   

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I actually took IND ML.  The one reason I'm a little leery is Frank Reich, both in how he limits Jonathan Taylor's usage for Mack (which is totally asinine), and his game management decisions which fails to maximize their win potential (on full display MNF @ BAL).     It's not even that I'm calling the IND victory as a lock - just IND has more paths to victory with J-Taylor / Wentz than I see with JimmyG / no Kittle (sorry @N4L).   

The only reasons the niners are favored is because we are off a bye and are at home. We have a bad record at Levis stadium over the last two years (dont forget we played "home games" in arizona last year), so its not like the niners have some big home field advantage or anything. 

I really dont think the 49ers should be favored given how the offense has played this year. idk. 

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

FWIW, I also really like the Under in the SF/IND game. I tend to play scared and tease stuff like this, but I also like the original U44 points. 

 

The 49ers are pretty consistently middle of the pack in pace of play and the Colts run defense is stingy, which should really force Jimmy G's hand without Kittle. On the other side, the Colts have recently really slowed down (bottom 10 in pace of play) and most recently struggled against a hapless Texans defense. 

Yeah, I like the under a lot too. There is supposed to be a massive storm coming in sunday night and JG is not a good, bad weather QB. Kyle can get very conservative with JG under center, especially when its raining. 

Both teams will run the ball and play field position. The colts strength of their defense is their front, particularly their interior, and the C/RG/RT of the 49ers OL is pretty bad. Alex Mack has been bad. Brunskill is not an NFL starter, and Mike McGlinchy needed to be benched 15 months ago. 

The only thing that worries me about the under is turnovers. JG loves to turn the ball over on the niners side of the field. 

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

As far as O/U are concerned, I love teasing all of these this week (not together, but a combo of any 2 of these looks like a strong play). 

Teasing totals does not yield the same advantages as it does with spreads. The points arent worth nearly as much as their are with spreads. Statistically, you are better off not teasing totals at all, or sticking with only one total per ticket. 

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