Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Interestingly, action is on the under, so now it's D'Ernest Johnson O59.5 - 105.   I'll gladly take that for 2U.

I also like Courtland Sutton O65.5 yards with the Baker news.   The CLE run game should still be successful, but I don't foresee CLE dominating ToP with Keenum as the QB.  On the flip side, I expect Sutton to have a lot of success vs. the CLE secondary.   

I do have 2 longshot TD props this week - both on Den's side.   First, I'll go with Kendall Hinton +450 TD / +6600 2+ for 0.8U/0.4U, and then John Brown +1000 TD / +125000 2+ for 0.55U/0.25U (2U total TD props).   The CLE secondary is really vulnerable, and Hinton's had his RZ looks (and caught at TD vs. PIT).   Brown has just joined the team, but he's their only true speed threat, so we might see at least 1 home run shot, if not 2.  This is about the value, rather than the probability, which is why the stakes are even lower than normal.

As for early week 7 action, I'm going to take 3 ATS, and 2 underdog ML / RACE plays:

CAR -3 @ NYG - I get it, Panthers are struggling, coming off a gutwrenching OT loss and 3 in a row.   And Sam Darnold's definitely regressed.   But here's the thing - their D is legit, and now going to get Stephon Gilmore.   They're about to get CJ Henderson back.   And they get after the QB.   Versus a NYG OL that just lost more key starters, and are playing backups / subpar starters across the line.  The NYG O won't have Barkley, Toney, Golladay at the very least, if not more guys missing.   On the flip side, the Gmen D can't stop the run or pass.   Their top CB Bradberry is no longer an island CB, which means it's a game DJ Moore & co. likely feast on.  Honestly, I think the Panthers get healthy on both sides of the ball Sunday, and win this by 2+ scores going away.   

TEN +5.5 vs. KC -  I've just come to accept that you respect TEN as a dog (especially a home one), but fade them as favorites.   This is no different.   I'm not calling for the upset, but I avoided BUF -5.5, I'm certainly not going to take the KC side, when their D has even bigger issues to try and contain Henry and AJ Brown/Tanny pass game (no Julio makes it easier).

CIN +6 @ BAL - this is mostly about 3 factors.  First, CIN's D is legit.  Tough against the pass, and way better against the run than in prior years.    Second, their O has balance, and Burrow is really getting the rust off.  Finally, being an intradivisional game - this always narrows the perceived gap.   Don't get me wrong -  I see BAL winning a 27-24 or maybe 27-23 type game.  BAL is the better team.   They have slight but clear edges on both sides of the ball.   But giving 6 pts, I'll lean Cincy (and hope the one glaring disadvantage in game management/coaching with Zac Taylor vs. Harbaugh doesn't bite me hard here).

MIA +120 ML vs. ATL, RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 / +210 / +325) - but wait, didn't I bet JAX ML last week vs. MIA in UK?  And isn't MIA coming back on a travel week vs. ATL on a bye?  Yes on all counts.   This is about ATL more than it is about MIA (although Tua playing well is a big part of my decision here).   ATL beat the Jets & Giants - and that's giving them a road favorite -3 status?   Start of season this would have been MIA -6 or more.    This is classic recency bias - especially when you factor in that ATL's OL is still a huge problem (so they can't run on MIA's D like everyone else has been able to - DVOA 32nd in run blocking).   Matt Ryan does OK when he's kept clean - get pressure, and he sees ghosts.   NYG & NYJ didn't get sustained pressure (nor did WFT, which is surprising).  While MIA lost last week, they were in Trevor Lawrence's face, he just played really well (so did Tua, other than the one brain cramp throw).    It's by no means a lock MIA's winning - but they should be the favorites, so getting plus money is too a chance to pass up.   And the races even more, given the inflated payouts.

IND +150 ML @ SF, RACE to 15/20/25 (+170/+260/+425) MNF - this one's about the value again.   Indy IMO is a pick 'em call with SF.   JimmyG coming back isn't any better than Wentz 2021, and while Frank Reich has been awful at game management in-game, Kyle Shanahan isn't either (he's excels at pre-game planning and preparation, in-game not so much).   Reich is the biggest reason why IND could lose, though.    No Kittle makes it far easier for Eberfleus to defend against the Niner O, and we saw what he did for 3+ quarters until injuries in-game and fatigue wore out the Indy D (and Reich's awful game management failing to maximize point opps).   For this to materialize though, Reich has to stop his asinine RB rotation, and force feed Jonathan Taylor the ball.   Hopefully he got the memo after Taylor's 2H explosion vs. Houston last week (vs. 2 carries and 1 catch in the 1H).  Again another case where it's a pick 'em, the safe call would be to take the points, but the payouts are so good for the risk.  

Sunday player props aren't out yet, so that's it for now - BOL!

 

It goes without saying MIA props don't work if the big Watson deal happens (unlikely he'd play this week, and Brissett vs. ATL is a whole different prop, no thx).

Edited October 20, 2021 by Broncofan

[biggie.]

Denver +2 against Case Keenum and possibly no Chubb and Landry? Yes please.

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, biggie. said:

Denver +2 against Case Keenum and possibly no Chubb and Landry? Yes please.

I got Denver ML earlier in the week when the line was bigger. Now Chubb, Hunt, OBJ, Landry, both OT are likely out with Baker questionable. 

[NYRaider]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It goes without saying MIA props don't work if the big Watson deal happens (unlikely he'd play this week, and Brissett vs. ATL is a whole different prop, no thx).

I read that even if Watson is traded to Miami he's probably not going to play this season. 

[NYRaider]

The games this week are pretty meh. One game that does stand out for me though is the Bengals at Ravens. Both teams are 3-3 ATS to start the year with Baltimore being +5.1 points ATS and the Bengals being +5.9 points ATS. 6.5 seems like a lot for the Ravens to cover this week. I think there's a ton of recency bias because of their dominant performance against the Chargers last week but one detail no one seems to be mentioning is that Mike Williams hardly played for the Chargers last week and he's their primary deep threat. Without Williams the Chargers didn't really have anyone that could take the top off the defense which allowed the Ravens to be more aggressive attacking the LOS.

They won't be able to play the same way against the Bengals because Jamar Chase is a legit deep threat that can score on any play of the game. Jonathan Taylor also lit the Ravens up for 169 yards/2 TD which bodes well for Mixon who is coming off his best performance of the season. The Bengals were 3 point underdogs in a divisional road game against the Steelers a couple of weeks ago and won by 14 in Pittsburgh.

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I read that even if Watson is traded to Miami he's probably not going to play this season. 

Without derailing the thread there’s no way a team is trading for Watson without the intent to play him.   Then the decision to put Watson on the Commissioner exempt list comes front & center (unclear precedent without criminal charges - Kareem Hunt was cut first, then suspended without charges, but wasn’t put on the Exempt list - everyone put on the Exempt list was charged IIRC) .   Which certainly could shelve Watson.   It just wouldn’t come from the team trading for him.   The PR fallout would be massive for the team to actively sit a guy they traded for (Exempt list though is a totally different story though). 
 

Wonder if there’s a prop on the Watson playing this year still around.  I imagine it’s been taken off now lol.  

Edited October 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Without derailing the thread there’s no way a team is trading for Watson without the intent to play him.   Then the decision to put Watson on the Commissioner exempt list comes front & center (unclear precedent without criminal charges - Kareem Hunt was cut first, then suspended without charges, but wasn’t put on the Exempt list - everyone put on the Exempt list was charged IIRC) .   Which certainly could shelve Watson.   It just wouldn’t come from the team trading for him.   The PR fallout would be massive for the team to actively sit a guy they traded for (Exempt list though is a totally different story though). 
 

Wonder if there’s a prop on the Watson playing this year still around.  I imagine it’s been taken off now lol.  

FWIW:

Quote

The Miami Dolphins could swing a trade to acquire quarterback Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans at some point this week. We heard murmurs a while ago that the Dolphins were interested in trading for Watson, but talks have intensified after Miami lost to the previously winless Jacksonville Jaguars in London last weekend. Despite Watson's status and his legal issues, the Texans are reportedly asking for three first-round picks and two second-round picks for him. Watson also has a full no-trade clause, but it's no secret that he wants out of Houston. The 26-year-old three-time Pro Bowler has been inactive all season in Houston as his legal issues play out, and even if he were traded to the Dolphins, he's unlikely to play for the remainder of the 2021 season. Not even halfway into his sophomore season Tua Tagovailoa's future is looking cloudy in sunny Miami.--Keith Hernandez - RotoBaller

 

[braylon]

Agree with @Broncofan, especially with Wills looking likely to play.. I'm all over that D'Ernest rushing prop. I also love him to score a TD at +130. Starting Browns RB (with likely no competition for goaline carries) should be about -130 to score a TD, so there's just too much value there to pass up on for me. I'm also pretty high on 2 TDs at +1000.

Will get back with more props I like from this game, but preliminary thoughts are I like Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. If OBJ is out and Jarvis is in, which is currently what is expected.. I will be watching the Jarvis props like a hawk lol.

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

FWIW:

 

Right but it doesn’t say why he’s unlikely.   I suspect the Texans & league agreed to this arrangement.   So they can trade Watson in season.   

No team trading for him would ever agree to be the one making that decision - they’d let the league make the call and say “wasn’t our call” to the fanbase.   The PR hit of a team sitting Watson after trading assets for him would be nuts. 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Right but it doesn’t say why he’s unlikely.   I suspect the Texans & league agreed to thus arrangement.   So they can trade Watson in season.   

No team trading for him would ever agree to that - they’d let the league make the call.   The PR hit of a team doing it after trading for him would be nuts. 

Yeah and FWIW a few hours after all of these trade rumors started another NFL beat writer came out and said that they were fake. I can't really see a team like Miami making the move now sitting at 1-5, they're not making the playoffs with or without him.

[NYRaider]

Another game that caught my eye is Detroit (+15) at Rams. I think that the Rams definitely win the game but I could see Detroit getting some garbage time points so the Rams don't cover. Goff knows McVay and the offense while Stafford doesn't know much about Detroit because they have a new coaching staff.

[NYRaider]

5 minutes ago, braylon said:

Agree with @Broncofan, especially with Wills looking likely to play.. I'm all over that D'Ernest rushing prop. I also love him to score a TD at +130. Starting Browns RB (with likely no competition for goaline carries) should be about -130 to score a TD, so there's just too much value there to pass up on for me. I'm also pretty high on 2 TDs at +1000.

Will get back with more props I like from this game, but preliminary thoughts are I like Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. If OBJ is out and Jarvis is in, which is currently what is expected.. I will be watching the Jarvis props like a hawk lol.

The only concern I'd have is that the Broncos run defense has actually been pretty stout this season and with no Baker I'm assuming they'll stack the box the entire game. They've only given up 100+ rushing yards in 2 games all season with Najee Harris being the lone 100+ rusher against them. And they've only given up 5 rushing TD one the season through the first 6 games. 

[Broncofan]

37 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The only concern I'd have is that the Broncos run defense has actually been pretty stout this season and with no Baker I'm assuming they'll stack the box the entire game. They've only given up 100+ rushing yards in 2 games all season with Najee Harris being the lone 100+ rusher against them. And they've only given up 5 rushing TD one the season through the first 6 games. 

That run D was stout with out starters Jewell & Alexander Johnson as starters both are now out.   When Johnson left the D was gashed hard.  Against a good OL even stacking the box doesn’t help if the O is committed (and the Browns are).     You get 5-6 short runs - followed by big chunk plays.   It’s why being the bellcow matters.  If it’s a timeshare then the risk is higher. 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

That run D was stout with out starters Jewell & Alexander Johnson as starters both are now out.   When Johnson left the D was gashed hard. 

That's true but the Browns are likely going to be without Baker, their top 2 RB, both starting OT, and their top 2 WR. So I'd assume Denver will stack the box and ask Keenum to beat them throwing the ball. The two TD prop is tough because we've seen the Browns offense struggle at times with their top 2 backs playing.

[Broncofan]

11 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's true but the Browns are likely going to be without Baker, their top 2 RB, both starting OT, and their top 2 WR. So I'd assume Denver will stack the box and ask Keenum to beat them throwing the ball. The two TD prop is tough because we've seen the Browns offense struggle at times with their top 2 backs playing.

Fwiw Wills is already stated as likely to play and so is Landry (who also adds to the run game - excellent blocker).    Conklin unlikely.   No Conklin hurts the pass pro vs. Von but I don’t foresee the same issues with their run game even with a stacked box.   If Wills / Landry are both out I’d see the concern but not nearly as concerned with them in.   Can’t predict injuries etc.  100 percent but if both Wills & Landry are in and Johnson gets the expected 15+ carries I’m very comfortable with 70+ so 59.5 is still a strong play.  
 

 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Broncofan