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Weekly Bets Thread


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Just now, Broncofan said:

Fwiw Wills is already stated as likely to play and so is Landry (who also adds to the run game - excellent blocker).    Conklin unlikely.   No Conklin hurts the pass pro vs. Von but I don’t foresee the same issues with their run game even with a stacked box.   If Wills / Landry are both out I’d see the concern but not nearly as concerned with them in.   Can’t predict injuries etc.  but if Johnson gets the expected 15+ carries I’m very comfortable with 70+ so 59.5 is still a strong play.  
 

 

I was strictly referring to the 2 TD prop bet.

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3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I was strictly referring to the 2 TD prop bet.

Ah gotcha.  The 59.5 seems so good.   2-TD is always a longshot.  
 

Njoku in PA at +450 TD / +5000 2+ I’m willing to dabble in (0.6U / 0.3U).  Denver can’t cover the TE and PA will be there to protect against the run.  Also long shots but the payout value is there.  

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13 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's true but the Browns are likely going to be without Baker, their top 2 RB, both starting OT, and their top 2 WR. So I'd assume Denver will stack the box and ask Keenum to beat them throwing the ball. The two TD prop is tough because we've seen the Browns offense struggle at times with their top 2 backs playing.

@Broncofan basically covered it. I’m just so confident in the role he plays tonight. Take his receiving prop too if they give us one. If it’s under 10 yards I’m just as confident in it as the rushing yards. If its 13.5 (my prediction for some reason) then I’m still hitting the over on that undoubtedly.

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1 minute ago, braylon said:

@Broncofan basically covered it. I’m just so confident in the role he plays tonight. Take his receiving prop too if they give us one. If it’s under 10 yards I’m just as confident in it as the rushing yards. If its 13.5 (my prediction for some reason) then I’m still hitting the over on that undoubtedly.

Yards I can see I just probably wouldn't bet on a 2 TD prop.

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Yards I can see I just probably wouldn't bet on a 2 TD prop.

Totally fair. I'm just not expecting this to be as ugly as some are given Wills is playing. If both of the tackles were out again I'd be extremely worried. It's so much easier to scheme for one tackle being undermanned, but both sides.. just tough to handle. We are going to look light years better than last week IMO. I wouldn't necessarily bet the over, but in a SGP, yes, I'm hitting the over. I think this game could cruise past 40.5. Browns pass D has been looking like swiss cheese lately already and we just put JOK on IR (arguably our best defender not named Garrett this year). 

But, you are right, +1000 actually probably isn't enough to make it a worthwhile bet. Njoku, who @Broncofan mentioned is at +7000 for 2 TDs on FD.. Those aren't the worst odds if DEN is as leaky as he says against the TE.

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4 hours ago, braylon said:

But, you are right, +1000 actually probably isn't enough to make it a worthwhile bet. Njoku, who @Broncofan mentioned is at +7000 for 2 TDs on FD.. Those aren't the worst odds if DEN is as leaky as he says against the TE.

Mark Andrews had 5 catches/64 yards/0 TD and Darren Waller had 5 catches/59 yards/0 TD vs Denver. They've given up a 48 yard TD to Ruggs, 50 yard TD to Deontae Johnson, and 49 yard TD to Hollywood Brown over the last 3 weeks all on the right side of the field. They also gave up a 37 yard TD to Sterling Sheppard and a 25 yard TD to Marvin Jones earlier in the season. They haven't even allowed a TD to a TE so far this season. I'd take my chances with the O on yards and a TD with Peoples-Jones.

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3 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

I think people are gonna go too far the other way after the Titans beat BUF and I think KC realizes another AFC loss at this point of the season could be trouble...I like KC - 4.5 this week

The 27th best run D in the league going up against Henry is the only reason I'd have reservations. 

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6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Another game that caught my eye is Detroit (+15) at Rams. I think that the Rams definitely win the game but I could see Detroit getting some garbage time points so the Rams don't cover. Goff knows McVay and the offense while Stafford doesn't know much about Detroit because they have a new coaching staff.

you told everyone here to take detriot last week because they were "trending in the right direction on defense". They got whooped by the bengals. 

Under no circumstances should anyone bet on DET, with that secondary, against those WRs, against that QB, and against that HC. McVay is going to absolutely rip the DET D to shreds. Its strength vs weakness there. The rams are going to have their way with DETs D.

The rams dont need to "know the DET offensive system" to run train on them this weekend. The lions have put everything on film at this point. They have done everything they can every week to try and win. There wont be any surprises. 

Having Goff does not give them any crazy insights into the rams offense in a way that is usable. They dont have the personnel to match up with the rams weapons.

Stafford has had some iffy games, but this wont be one of them. The rams are one of the best teams in the NFL, the lions are bottom 5. I get that its +15 but is this really where you want to put your money?? 

Rams team total over is something I am eyeing

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4 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

I think people are gonna go too far the other way after the Titans beat BUF and I think KC realizes another AFC loss at this point of the season could be trouble...I like KC - 4.5 this week

I am on the over. KCs offense will not settle for FGs like Buffalo did. Titans offense will come out firing because they know their defense cant stop Mahomes.

Its a big number, but one offense will score enough to force the other team to be aggressive enough to push it over the total imo 

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2 minutes ago, N4L said:

you told everyone here to take detriot last week because they were "trending in the right direction on defense". They got whooped by the bengals. 

Under no circumstances should anyone bet on DET, with that secondary, against those WRs, against that QB, and against that HC. McVay is going to absolutely rip the DET D to shreds. Its strength vs weakness there. The rams are going to have their way with DETs D.

The rams dont need to "know the DET offensive system" to run train on them this weekend. The lions have put everything on film at this point. They have done everything they can every week to try and win. There wont be any surprises. 

Having Goff does not give them any crazy insights into the rams offense in a way that is usable. They dont have the personnel to match up with the rams weapons.

Stafford has had some iffy games, but this wont be one of them. The rams are one of the best teams in the NFL, the lions are bottom 5. I get that its +15 but is this really where you want to put your money?? 

Rams team total over is something I am eyeing

I never told anyone to take the Lions, I just said it's a game that I could see as a potential upset. Was their defense not trending in the right way? They held the Ravens to 19 points and they needed to hit the longest FG in NFL history to win the game. They also held the Vikings to 19 points who also needed to hit a last second FG to win the game. 

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On 10/17/2021 at 5:16 AM, NYRaider said:

Player prop bet I have today...

Las Vegas to win:

• Henry Ruggs O 45.5 receiving yards / 1 TD

• Darren Waller 1 TD

• Derek Carr O 1.5 passing TD

Jacksonville to win: 

• James Robinson over 74.5 rushing yards / 1 TD

• Joe Mixon O 71.5 rushing yards

Robinson finished with 73 rushing yards and the Raiders ran the ball in the red zone. Some of you are so pretentious. 

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Another play - Donovan Peoples - Jones O36.5 - his reception prop is O2.5 -170.   His YPC is 18+.    If OBJ is out this is an easy call.   If you wait until OBJ is declared out the line will skyrocket so I’m happy to take the chance.   Much like Ruggs it could only take 1 play.   
 

Johnson is down to O57.5 +110 - loaded another 2U so it’s a 4U play now at even money.   

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