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Weekly Bets Thread


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On 10/20/2021 at 10:55 AM, Broncofan said:

CAR -3 @ NYG - I get it, Panthers are struggling, coming off a gutwrenching OT loss and 3 in a row.   And Sam Darnold's definitely regressed.   But here's the thing - their D is legit, and now going to get Stephon Gilmore.   They're about to get CJ Henderson back.   And they get after the QB.   Versus a NYG OL that just lost more key starters, and are playing backups / subpar starters across the line.  The NYG O won't have Barkley, Toney, Golladay at the very least, if not more guys missing.   On the flip side, the Gmen D can't stop the run or pass.   Their top CB Bradberry is no longer an island CB, which means it's a game DJ Moore & co. likely feast on.  Honestly, I think the Panthers get healthy on both sides of the ball Sunday, and win this by 2+ scores going away.  

CIN +6 @ BAL - this is mostly about 3 factors.  First, CIN's D is legit.  Tough against the pass, and way better against the run than in prior years.    Second, their O has balance, and Burrow is really getting the rust off.  Finally, being an intradivisional game - this always narrows the perceived gap.   Don't get me wrong -  I see BAL winning a 27-24 or maybe 27-23 type game.  BAL is the better team.   They have slight but clear edges on both sides of the ball.   But giving 6 pts, I'll lean Cincy (and hope the one glaring disadvantage in game management/coaching with Zac Taylor vs. Harbaugh doesn't bite me hard here).

The Panthers/Giants game scares me. If I do bet on it, I'm definitely going to take the Panthers but Sam Darnold has been horrendous over the last 3 games. I could easily see a situation where Darnold turns the ball over multiple times and it's closer then it should be/goes down to the wire. The Panthers OL is pretty damn bad as well and the Giants DL is decent with Williams, Azeez, and Lawerence. 

ETA: The Panthers offense really hasn't been great this year. They scored 19 vs Jets, 26 vs Saints, 24 vs Texans, 28 vs Cowboys (14 came in garbage time), 18 vs Eagles, and 28 vs Vikings (8 came on a Hail Mary drive / 2 pt conversion)

I'm actually riding the Bengals ML this week. One thing that does scare me is that Lamar is 5-1 against the Bengals and has won his last 5 games against them. Last year the Ravens outscored the Bengals 65 to 6 in their two matchups. 

Edited by NYRaider
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18 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Also @Broncofan apparently there's a 90% chance of rain and will be 15-20 MPH winds during the game so I'd be a little cautious with any passing props. When we played in Cleveland last year during a windy day we won 16-6 and both teams combined for 222 passing yards.

Dammit, that's a big ugh on the passing props for sure.   

D'Ernst I'm all over.   I'm OK with 4U on D'Ernst given 2U are at +110 (to make it even $), and 1U on Peoples-Jones and 1U on Sutton  (Sutton I'm definitely the most nervous on - the more yards you need, the more vulnerable it is to weather).    

 

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2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The Panthers/Giants game scares me. If I do bet on it, I'm definitely going to take the Panthers but Sam Darnold has been horrendous over the last 3 games. I could easily see a situation where Darnold turns the ball over multiple times and it's closer then it should be/goes down to the wire. The Panthers OL is pretty damn bad as well and the Giants DL is decent with Williams, Azeez, and Lawerence. 

ETA: The Panthers offense really hasn't been great this year. They scored 19 vs Jets, 26 vs Saints, 24 vs Texans, 28 vs Cowboys (14 came in garbage time), 18 vs Eagles, and 28 vs Vikings (8 came on a Hail Mary drive / 2 pt conversion)

I'm actually riding the Bengals ML this week. One thing that does scare me is that Lamar is 5-1 against the Bengals and has won his last 5 games against them. Last year the Ravens outscored the Bengals 65 to 6 in their two matchups. 

Re: CAR-NYG, it's not really that I'm on CAR's O - but NYG can't stop anyone....and then CAR's D could really go HAM on NYG's D.   I don't see CAR struggling to a season low output, and I do see NYG having a major problem moving the ball. CAR could score 24 pts...and win 24-7.    DJ Moore is a guy I'd be on this week, the whole "Bradberry Island" is now pure fiction.  I'm hoping Moore's totals reflect this, I'm going to hammer it if there's a discount.

The recent struggles CAR have been having are a huge reason IMO why the line is only -3.    Talent-wise, especially with who NYG is left with on OL & at skill positions, and who CAR is getting back, IMO it's all recency bias that is pushing the line down.     That's why I like the opp, being at below below the magic 3 pt threshold is huge.

Edited by Broncofan
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As a Ravens fan I think there’s really good value in Bengals ML this week.

Line should be ~4-4.5 pts IMO. 6.5 juices that ML up to a very appealing number.

If you want to bet a dog straight up, make it Cincinnati.

 

Edited by Ray Reed
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On 10/13/2021 at 5:09 PM, NYRaider said:

Lions ML is actually a game that I like this week. Their defense has been trending in the right direction, Joe Burrow is banged up, and every Bengals game has been super close. If Swift can get loose like Aaron Jones did last week I think they have a good chance to win. 

To be fair to @N4L - this is what he was referring to.   It's fair to say after more dialogue, you backed off and didn't include it on the final ticket.    That's all good, I mean the point is the Forum learns from dialogue, and hopefully we all win $ together.   Just to only refer to your final ticket isn't really being accurate.   It's not like he's making it up, no need to call him pretentious on it.

And to be clear, we all have bad calls - I backed LAC last week - massive whiff.    It happens, 60% correct is HOF territory.   Even if it's an initial lean that gets changed, those happen all the time too.  It would be throwing stones in glass houses to say otherwise.     It's one of the reasons why this year, I started tracking every public pick, too.  It's a good exercise IMO, it helps me grow and learn.   

Edited by Broncofan
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3 hours ago, braylon said:

9.5 receiving yards for D’Ernest is SO low guys. I’m undoubtedly taking the over.

If there are receiving opps to take, it's the 1-play or short-yardage ones.   Njoku O19.5 is another example.    Den's ability to cover the TE has been severely compromised with the loss of Jewell (who knew where to be all the time, really under-rated guy).   Sterns can play as the cover-LB/hybrid S, and that helps - but he's also hurting today, that's a major problem.  

If it's THAT windy, that probably shortens the field as far as deep plays are concerned - @NYRaider's concern about wind is very valid with QB's with average to mediocre arms (that's Teddy B and Case Keenum to a T).    

Still OK with DPJ because he's not just a deep guy, he wins in intermediate areas, too.   And one play is all it takes (and FWIW I have him for 3-4 catches at his usual 15-20 YPC game if OBJ is out and bad weather, I thought he as possible for 5-6 catches before). 

I'm going to back off Sutton and go with Njoku O19.5 instead.    I do like the Ernst O9.5, if I didn't have 4U committed to him already, I'd go there (and praying he doesn't get hurt lol).  The short yardage plays are good to bank on.   It's a strong call.

 

Final TNF card (1U unless specified)
 

D'Ernst Johnson O57.5 / 58.5 rushing +100 4U (on both, one for +110, one for -110) - please, please, please don't get hurt lol

Donovan Peoples-Jones O31.5 yards receiving

David Njoku O31.5 receiving 

 

TD props

DPJ +250 / +2500 2+ (0.6/0.3U)

Njoku +450 / +5000 2+ (0.6/0.3U)

 

Total risk - 7.8U
 

BOL!

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38 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If there are receiving opps to take, it's the 1-play or short-yardage ones.   Njoku O19.5 is another example.    Den's ability to cover the TE has been severely compromised with the loss of Jewell (who knew where to be all the time, really under-rated guy).   Sterns can play as the cover-LB/hybrid S, and that helps - but he's also hurting today, that's a major problem.  

If it's THAT windy, that probably shortens the field as far as deep plays are concerned - @NYRaider's concern about wind is very valid with QB's with average to mediocre arms (that's Teddy B and Case Keenum to a T).    

Still OK with DPJ because he's not just a deep guy, he wins in intermediate areas, too.   And one play is all it takes (and FWIW I have him for 3-4 catches at his usual 15-20 YPC game if OBJ is out and bad weather, I thought he as possible for 5-6 catches before). 

I'm going to back off Sutton and go with Njoku O19.5 instead.    I do like the Ernst O9.5, if I didn't have 4U committed to him already, I'd go there (and praying he doesn't get hurt lol).  The short yardage plays are good to bank on.   It's a strong call.

 

Final TNF card (1U unless specified)
 

D'Ernst Johnson O57.5 / 58.5 rushing +100 4U (2U on both, one for +110, one for -110) - please, please, please don't get hurt lol

Donovan Peoples-Jones O36.5 receiving

David Njoku O19.5 receiving 

 

TD props

DPJ +250 / +2500 2+ (0.6/0.3U)

Njoku +450 / +5000 2+ (0.6/0.3U)

 

Total risk - 7.8U
 

BOL!

I can definitely get behind prettt much literally everything you said. 
 

 

I know your gambling style from this thread, you would not be happy to hear I’m throwing SGP’s in tonight.. can’t help myself in prime time with my favorite team plying. Obviously not gonna go crazy, but any props you like as leans anywhere else in this game? I pretty much like literally every DEN pass catcher.. as I crazy lol?

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49 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

To be fair to @N4L - this is what he was referring to.   It's fair to say after more dialogue, you backed off and didn't include it on the final ticket.    That's all good, I mean the point is the Forum learns from dialogue, and hopefully we all win $ together.   Just to only refer to your final ticket isn't really being accurate.   It's not like he's making it up, no need to call him pretentious on it.

And to be clear, we all have bad calls - I backed LAC last week - massive whiff.    It happens, 60% correct is HOF territory.   Even if it's an initial lean that gets changed, those happen all the time too.  It would be throwing stones in glass houses to say otherwise.     It's one of the reasons why this year, I started tracking every public pick, too.  It's a good exercise IMO, it helps me grow and learn.   

Exactly.

Dialogue is good. Thats the point of a forum. When you post your picks you are opening the door for people to disagree with them. 

People can post their picks and people can tail or fade them. I am not here to gatekeep the thread, post what you want (with obvious exceptions), bet on who you want, but if you post a pick without good reasoning that I disagree with, then yeah, I will say I disagree and tell you why *shrugs*

@NYRaider

Its about quality over quantity. If this was a primetime game, then yeah, ok. My overall point was that there are muuuuuch better games to bet on than the Detroit Lions  

As stated, the lions secondary is a major weakness, while the rams passing offense is their strength. Taking the lions +14/15 feels like playing with fire. Banking on garbage TDs is a bad strategy imo. 

Cooper Kupp in a SMASH spot this weekend. Give me the over on his yardage prop all day long. 

Rams are a PRIME teaser candidate imo as well. 

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40 minutes ago, braylon said:

I can definitely get behind prettt much literally everything you said. 
 

 

I know your gambling style from this thread, you would not be happy to hear I’m throwing SGP’s in tonight.. can’t help myself in prime time with my favorite team plying. Obviously not gonna go crazy, but any props you like as leans anywhere else in this game? I pretty much like literally every DEN pass catcher.. as I crazy lol?

Be careful with high volume pass catcher requirements.  Don't go reception props unless it's safety valves / possession guys, hope you get yardage plays with broken / big plays if the winds are as advertised.

 

I could live with this SGP for 0.5U

 

Njoku O19.5

MG3 12.5

D'Ernest 9.5

D'Ernest 57.5 rushing (lower payout odds if you take both)

Fant O3.5 catches (really bad odds at -160, but in a SGP it's tolerable)

Patrick O3.5 catches

Something like that would be 20-1 to 25-1 or so.   Would not just do that, though obv - take at least 3-4 of them as single bets (not Fant)

Edited by Broncofan
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OBJ is active, so I'll drop the DPJ yardage prop.

EDIT:  Just saw the footage, keeping DPJ.  Suspect decoy play here.  Unlike D'Ernest, it's only 1U lol - and the total is now Peoples-Jones O31.5 yards.  Cancelled the 1st bet (and took a 15 percent loss, but I'm totally OK with that - so my bet is really for 1.15U).

Edited by Broncofan
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I'll just say, regarding that Lions/Rams game, there's far too much potential variance IMO in the outcome of that game. I think Rams inevitably win -- so they're a great Survivor pick for example -- but I can definitely see a world where a chippy winless team is treating Goff's reunion like their personal Super Bowl. I could actually see Goff having a great game considering the strength of the Rams coverage is the perimeter and the Lions typically attack in the middle of the field. That said, I can also easily see a world where the Lions play like the Lions, the Rams plays like the Rams, and the defense suffocates Goff and Stafford lights up his old team. 

 

It's mostly just a stay away game for me, even as a teaser. 

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I have two last minute props I'm eyeing. Will confirm if I end up taking either. 

 

Demetric Felton UNDER 15.5 receiving yards. Not for the faint of heart. He's hit the over in 1 game this season (highlight TD catch) and this will be the first game with everyone seemingly healthy in the Browns pass catching room. It's not a fun play because it could bust on a single play, but I might throw 0.5U on it. 

Javonte Williams OVER 14.5 receiving yards. This feels insanely low to me. Javonte has exactly 3 receptions in 4 straight games and I suspect this Browns pass rush will force a similar narrative tonight. If Javonte catches 3 balls, I love the odds of him hitting this over. Very likely to put 1U on this. 

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