Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

5 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I have two last minute props I'm eyeing. Will confirm if I end up taking either. 

 

Demetric Felton UNDER 15.5 receiving yards. Not for the faint of heart. He's hit the over in 1 game this season (highlight TD catch) and this will be the first game with everyone seemingly healthy in the Browns pass catching room. It's not a fun play because it could bust on a single play, but I might throw 0.5U on it. 

Javonte Williams OVER 14.5 receiving yards. This feels insanely low to me. Javonte has exactly 3 receptions in 4 straight games and I suspect this Browns pass rush will force a similar narrative tonight. If Javonte catches 3 balls, I love the odds of him hitting this over. Very likely to put 1U on this. 

Put 1U on the Javonte play. Decided not to hit the Felton play due to the uncertainty of how he might be used with D'Ernest. 

[Broncofan]

With weather crazy line movement on TD props - took 0.6U / 0.3U on both Fant +400 / +4500 & Patrick +500 / +5000.    Even with weather those are inflated odds for volume. 

[Broncofan]

Peoples Jones questionable before game starts but left active.   Great.  Hopefully he doesn’t play a snap and I get the refund lol. 

D’’Ernest just be healthy all game please.  

Edited October 22, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

At 62 yards halfway through the 2Q let’s call the D’Ernest Johnson rushing prop a huge W. 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Love a 1H hit BroncoFan, nice call on D'Ernest. 

 

Javonte with 3 catches as I type with 7 minutes left in the 1H. Love that usage and would've expected him to hit the Over already. Very nit picky but he recorded a 2 yard catch, in which they marked it as 2nd & 8 after the play, but the stat sheet is showing it as a 1 yard reception. Sitting at 9 yards on a 14.5 O/U, every yard counts. 

[NYRaider]

36 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Love a 1H hit BroncoFan, nice call on D'Ernest. 

 

Javonte with 3 catches as I type with 7 minutes left in the 1H. Love that usage and would've expected him to hit the Over already. Very nit picky but he recorded a 2 yard catch, in which they marked it as 2nd & 8 after the play, but the stat sheet is showing it as a 1 yard reception. Sitting at 9 yards on a 14.5 O/U, every yard counts. 

Took the O on Johnson yards, Johnson to score a TD, and the O on Peoples-Jones but this dude really got injured in warm ups, smh.

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

Exactly.

Dialogue is good. Thats the point of a forum. When you post your picks you are opening the door for people to disagree with them. 

People can post their picks and people can tail or fade them. I am not here to gatekeep the thread, post what you want (with obvious exceptions), bet on who you want, but if you post a pick without good reasoning that I disagree with, then yeah, I will say I disagree and tell you why *shrugs*

@NYRaider

Its about quality over quantity. If this was a primetime game, then yeah, ok. My overall point was that there are muuuuuch better games to bet on than the Detroit Lions  

As stated, the lions secondary is a major weakness, while the rams passing offense is their strength. Taking the lions +14/15 feels like playing with fire. Banking on garbage TDs is a bad strategy imo. 

Cooper Kupp in a SMASH spot this weekend. Give me the over on his yardage prop all day long. 

Rams are a PRIME teaser candidate imo as well. 

I never tried to convince people to bet on the Lions and I myself didn't bet on the game. I literally just said I saw it as a potential upset spot as the Lions had played a bunch of close games and so had the Bengals.

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Javonte Williams OVER 14.5 receiving yards. This feels insanely low to me. Javonte has exactly 3 receptions in 4 straight games and I suspect this Browns pass rush will force a similar narrative tonight. If Javonte catches 3 balls, I love the odds of him hitting this over. Very likely to put 1U on this. 

Bang ✅ Hits it on the final play of the 3Q. It's not exactly a 1H hit like BroncoFan hitting D'Ernest but I'll take it 😉

That & D'Ernest were all I played tonight.

Edited October 22, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

Final TNF card (1U unless specified)
 

D'Ernst Johnson O57.5 / 58.5 rushing +100 4U (on both, one for +110, one for -110) - please, please, please don't get hurt lol

Donovan Peoples-Jones O31.5 yards receiving 

David Njoku O19.5 receiving

 

TD props

DPJ +250 / +2500 2+ (0.6/0.3U) 

Njoku +450 / +5000 2+ (0.6/0.3U)

 

Total risk - 11.8U
 

BOL!

Decided with the big backing of D'Ernst and the +money to go hard with 8U on D'Ernst - 6U at +110, 2U at -110 (original bet).   Needless to say, this was the best single player prop I've made all year. 

Peoples-Jones got hurt in warmups - so playing 0 snaps, this is actually a VOID bet.  Means the yardage AND the TD prop both are refunded.   Sucks as I could have bet more elsewhere, but I'll take it.

Njoku was a L - the TE's got 7/75, Njoku got targeted late on a screen that I thought was going to put me over for a sweep - but wasn't meant to be.   Still, if I'm going to lose one bet tonight, didn't want it to be D'Ernst lol.

TD props went 0-3 (Fant targeted 3x in RZ, and Patrick caught a TD - but couldn't get feet down.  Way it goes.)

 

Player props:

1-1 and 1 void, +7.4U (+8.4U with D'Ernst alone)

TD props:

0-3, -2.7U

 

NET: +4.7U

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING TNF:

ATS 18-11; 5-5 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +32.2U profit

Player props - 71-54, +25.6U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson TNF at +money)

TD - 6-21, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +17.2U so far 

Net balance:  +75.0U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 TNF - +4.7U)

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

With TNF off to a great start for Week 7, already committed to these ATS/RACE picks, re-posting to keep up-to-date:

As for early week 7 action, I'm going to take 3 ATS, and 2 underdog ML / RACE plays:

CAR -3 @ NYG - I get it, Panthers are struggling, coming off a gutwrenching OT loss and 3 in a row.   And Sam Darnold's definitely regressed.   But here's the thing - their D is legit, and now going to get Stephon Gilmore.   They're about to get CJ Henderson back.   And they get after the QB.   Versus a NYG OL that just lost more key starters, and are playing backups / subpar starters across the line.  The NYG O won't have Barkley, Toney, Golladay at the very least, if not more guys missing.   On the flip side, the Gmen D can't stop the run or pass.   Their top CB Bradberry is no longer an island CB, which means it's a game DJ Moore & co. likely feast on.  Honestly, I think the Panthers get healthy on both sides of the ball Sunday, and win this by 2+ scores going away.   

TEN +5.5 vs. KC -  I've just come to accept that you respect TEN as a dog (especially a home one), but fade them as favorites.   This is no different.   I'm not calling for the upset, but I avoided BUF -5.5, I'm certainly not going to take the KC side, when their D has even bigger issues to try and contain Henry and AJ Brown/Tanny pass game (no Julio makes it easier).

CIN +6.5 @ BAL - this is mostly about 3 factors.  First, CIN's D is legit.  Tough against the pass, and way better against the run than in prior years.    Second, their O has balance, and Burrow is really getting the rust off.  Finally, being an intradivisional game - this always narrows the perceived gap.   Don't get me wrong -  I see BAL winning a 27-24 or maybe 27-23 type game.  BAL is the better team.   They have slight but clear edges on both sides of the ball.   But giving 6 pts, I'll lean Cincy (and hope the one glaring disadvantage in game management/coaching with Zac Taylor vs. Harbaugh doesn't bite me hard here).  EDIT:  The line has moved to +6.5 I had +6 -105, so they're letting me void at +6.5 -110, I'll gladly trade the small payout L for the critical half-point.

MIA +120 ML vs. ATL, RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 / +210 / +325) (2.5U total, RACE 0.5U x3)- but wait, didn't I bet JAX ML last week vs. MIA in UK?  And isn't MIA coming back on a travel week vs. ATL on a bye?  Yes on all counts.   This is about ATL more than it is about MIA (although Tua playing well is a big part of my decision here).   ATL beat the Jets & Giants - and that's giving them a road favorite -3 status?   Start of season this would have been MIA -6 or more.    This is classic recency bias - especially when you factor in that ATL's OL is still a huge problem (so they can't run on MIA's D like everyone else has been able to - DVOA 32nd in run blocking).   Matt Ryan does OK when he's kept clean - get pressure, and he sees ghosts.   NYG & NYJ didn't get sustained pressure (nor did WFT, which is surprising).  While MIA lost last week, they were in Trevor Lawrence's face, he just played really well (so did Tua, other than the one brain cramp throw).    It's by no means a lock MIA's winning - but they should be the favorites, so getting plus money is too a chance to pass up.   And the races even more, given the inflated payouts.

IND +150 ML @ SF, RACE to 15/20/25 (+170/+260/+425) MNF (2.5U total, RACE 0.5U x3) - this one's about the value again.   Indy IMO is a pick 'em call with SF.   JimmyG coming back isn't any better than Wentz 2021, and while Frank Reich has been awful at game management in-game, Kyle Shanahan isn't either (he's excels at pre-game planning and preparation, in-game not so much).   Reich is the biggest reason why IND could lose, though.    No Kittle makes it far easier for Eberfleus to defend against the Niner O, and we saw what he did for 3+ quarters until injuries in-game and fatigue wore out the Indy D (and Reich's awful game management failing to maximize point opps).   For this to materialize though, Reich has to stop his asinine RB rotation, and force feed Jonathan Taylor the ball.   Hopefully he got the memo after Taylor's 2H explosion vs. Houston last week (vs. 2 carries and 1 catch in the 1H).  Again another case where it's a pick 'em, the safe call would be to take the points, but the payouts are so good for the risk.  

I'm also going to take a small 0.5U parley on the 5-legs above (I teased TEN up to +6 as part of the parley, in a multi-leg, the payout decrease is negligible to get to that line), and added MNF NO ML -210 - that allows me to hedge out a nice dog play if I'm still alive on MNF, and the payout is +5600.    The nice start to my week allows me to live a little (LOL), while still playing the main plays as single bets.

Risk - 8.5U

Player props still not out yet.  BOL!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING TNF:

ATS 18-11; 5-5 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +32.2U profit

Player props - 71-54, +25.6U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson TNF at +money)

TD - 6-21, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +17.2U so far 

Net balance:  +75.0U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 TNF - +4.7U)

Edited October 22, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

A few early player props have shown up, there were 5 that right away I jumped on, and 1 for 2U 4U (don't let me down Reich):

Jonathan Taylor O64.5 rushing 2U / O65.5 2U added - the IND OL has a 50-50 chance of getting all-world G Quinten Nelson back.  But even before that, the IND OL presents a plus matchup vs. SF's run D, which isn't terrible, but isn't stout.   The only way this doesn't hit is injury or more Reich shenanigans (2 carries in the 1H last week!).  But I simply side with the talent.  64.5 is at least 12-15 yards too low IMO.   2U play.  EDIT:  With news Kinlaw is out, I'm doubling down with O65.5, 2U more.

Patrick Mahomes O18.5 rushing - almost tempted to go 2U, but will stick to 1U for now.   When the OL has issues with pass pro, a guy like Mahomes will make his own magic.   Especially with TEN's pass coverage problems, this also creates big play potential when they chase the receivers.   This could hit in the 1H IMO.

Jakobi Meyers O5.5 catches +130 - I don't get why they keep offering this at +money, but hey, I'll keep pounding it.   Top target, and NYJ presents a funnel pass D.   Easy call; way more reliable than the yardage, and plus money?  Sign. Me. Up.

Allen Robinson & Darnell Mooney O4.5 catches +110 - Facing the #1 pass funnel D in Tampa.   Yes, they've underachieved overall - but I expect 8-10 targets each...if not more.   5 catches at plus money?   Sign me up for BOTH guys.  

Risk - 6U 8U Player Props 

That puts me at 14.5 16.5U total already with 8.5U in ATS/ML/RACE (including the 0.5U +5600 6-leg parley), but I think those are all value plays.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I'm also going to take a small 0.5U parley on the 5-legs above (I teased TEN up to +6 as part of the parley, in a multi-leg, the payout decrease is negligible to get to that line), and added MNF NO ML -210 - that allows me to hedge out a nice dog play if I'm still alive on MNF, and the payout is +5600.    The nice start to my week allows me to live a little (LOL), while still playing the main plays as single bets.

That's the spirit. I like this play. I'm going to tail you somewhat with 0.5U on Panthers, Dolphins, Colts, Saints ML. 

[N4L]

17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

IND +150 ML @ SF, RACE to 15/20/25 (+170/+260/+425) MNF (2.5U total, RACE 0.5U x3) - this one's about the value again.   Indy IMO is a pick 'em call with SF.   JimmyG coming back isn't any better than Wentz 2021, and while Frank Reich has been awful at game management in-game, Kyle Shanahan isn't either (he's excels at pre-game planning and preparation, in-game not so much).   Reich is the biggest reason why IND could lose, though.    No Kittle makes it far easier for Eberfleus to defend against the Niner O, and we saw what he did for 3+ quarters until injuries in-game and fatigue wore out the Indy D (and Reich's awful game management failing to maximize point opps).   For this to materialize though, Reich has to stop his asinine RB rotation, and force feed Jonathan Taylor the ball.   Hopefully he got the memo after Taylor's 2H explosion vs. Houston last week (vs. 2 carries and 1 catch in the 1H).  Again another case where it's a pick 'em, the safe call would be to take the points, but the payouts are so good for the risk.  

Trent williams is likely out

Javon Kinlaw is out

Those are huge losses from a literal and figurative standpoint. Thats like 700lbs missing from our starting lineup. Trent Williams is the best LT in football and the drop off is significant. We will start Jalen Moore, 5th round rookie in his spot. He played very well in preseason at LT, but that was preseason so who knows how he will do. With Jimmy G, a QB with inconsistent pocket presence (best case its ok, worst case is pitiful), in the POURING rain... turnovers seem like a certainty for JG at this point. 

Kinlaw is a very important part of the defense. He eats double teams and keeps the LBs free. Our run D takes a HUGE hit without him in the rotation. 

Colts suddenly have a big advantage in the trenches. If the 49ers werent coming off a bye, theyd be underdogs 

[The Guy]

KC -3 at Tennessee looks like the good bet this week to me. Tennessee is coming off an emotional home win that was fought down to the wire, and KC isn’t going to let themselves lose another game this early in the season. I think they win and cover.

[Broncofan]

56 minutes ago, N4L said:

Trent williams is likely out

Javon Kinlaw is out

Those are huge losses from a literal and figurative standpoint. Thats like 700lbs missing from our starting lineup. Trent Williams is the best LT in football and the drop off is significant. We will start Jalen Moore, 5th round rookie in his spot. He played very well in preseason at LT, but that was preseason so who knows how he will do. With Jimmy G, a QB with inconsistent pocket presence (best case its ok, worst case is pitiful), in the POURING rain... turnovers seem like a certainty for JG at this point. 

Kinlaw is a very important part of the defense. He eats double teams and keeps the LBs free. Our run D takes a HUGE hit without him in the rotation. 

Colts suddenly have a big advantage in the trenches. If the 49ers werent coming off a bye, theyd be underdogs 

Increasing Taylor to 4U (2U O65.5 now).