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7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

1 PM recap:

ATS/ML/RACE:

CAR -3 - LOSS (BAD) ugh, terrible call.   Sam Darnold is THAT lost right now (the D did their part until the 4Q, and then just wore out - but they helped me out too lol - more on that in a sec).    Lesson learned. 

CIN +6.5 - WIN (EASY) - taking the ML would have been sweet.   I said that CIN was a lot better than their record showed, and Zac Taylor was holding them back.   Well Burrow (one bad TO notwithstanding), Ja'Marr Chase and that legit CIN D showed up.    

TEN +4.5 - WIN (EASY) - TEN as favorites, avoid, as dogs, respect.  As home dogs, keep playing with blind faith.

MIA ML / RACE to 20/25/30 - LOSS - this was such a variance event.  If Tua doesn't make 1 of the 2 OMG gamechanging TO's, MIA wins the game (one on 2nd at 8 at ATL 20 with 35 secs left in 2Q - not only costs MIA 3 pts, but allows ATL to drive and get 3 of their own - then the next on 1st and 10 at the ATL 26 in the early 4Q, and ATL INT return to MIA 12 - so another 10 pt swing).    If he doesn't make either, MIA likely wins going away.   Ah well, though, that's why they play the game.   Right process / thinking, bad result.  Happens.

2-2, Net - -1.5U loss

2.5U Still left:

IND ML +160, RACE to 15/20/25 (+160/+275/+425)
 

PLAYER PROPS

WIN - A-Rod O2.5 TD's 2U +190, Tua O1.5 TD's +100, Waddle O +125, Mahomes O18.5 rushing - all win, all win fairly early.   LOVE the + money hits

LOSS - Meyers O5.5 catches (5 catches), A-Rob & Mooney O4.5 each (2 each) - the gamescript killed Meyers, plain and simple.  The CHI WR picks were just bad.  

4-3, Net: +4.0U

12U Still Left:

Allen Robinson & Darnell Mooney O4.5 catches +110

Jonathan Taylor O64.5 rushing 2U / O65.5 2U added

Jonathan Taylor O2.5 catches +130 

Michael Pittman O4.5 catches +130

Mo Alie-Cox O2.5 catches +130

Jimmy Garappolo O1.5TD's (passing) +170 

 

Jameis Winston O1.5TD's (passing) +150 @ SEA 2U


LONGSHOT TD PROPS:

Ja'marr Chase +220 1U - WIN

Dante Pettis +500 (0.6U) - WIN (+5000 0.3U - L)

Nico Collins +650 / +110000 2+ (0.6U/0.3U) - BOTH L's

Love it, the long-shot TD's are back!    Nice after a bit of a dry spell. 

2-1, Net:  +4.0U 

1.8U Still left:

Mo-Alie Cox +450 / +500 (0.6U / 0.3U)

Jameis Winston +750 / +110000 2+ (0.6U/0.3U)

The MIA play losing really hurt the overall payout, but still a great 1 PM slate - +9.4U (EDIT: after 4 PM, now 6.5U)  for the 1 PM games, over 14U+ already (EDIT: after 4 PM games, still over 11U)!   The Bears catch props don't look great (I'd take a split lol), and nothing on Nico Collins yet, but I love the IND/SF & Jameis props for MNF.   BOL!

WOOOHOO INDY.

ATS/RACE

IND ML +160, RACE 0.5U to 15/20/25 (+160 / +275 / +425) - 1-0 ML, 1-0 RACE, 2.5U risked, win 8.4U,  +5.9U net - woohoo after that 9-0 SF start!!!

 

PLAYER PROPS

JimmyG O1.5 TD's, PIttman O4.5 catches - Loses (Pittman so close, drew 2 DPI's clearly beating the CB)

EVERYTHING ELSE - J-Taylor O64.5 / O65.5 4U total, J-Taylor O2.5 catches +130, Mo-Alie-Cox O2.5 catches +130 - WIN

4-2, +4.2U net


TD PROPS

Mo-Alie Cox +450 / +5000 2+ (0.6U/0.3U) - Win, 1-0 +2.4U net

SNF NET- +12.5U net

 

WEEK 7 SUNDAY NET

ATS/ML/RACE - 3-2 ATS/ML, 1-1 RACE, NET +4.4U

PLAYER PROPS - 8-5 (but Taylor 4U & A-Rod 2U W's), NET +8.2U

LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 3-1, NET +6.4U

TOTAL SUNDAY NET +19.0U (not including TNF +4.7 U with D'Ernest Johnson 8U leading the way)

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING SNF:

ATS 21-13; 6-6 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +36.6U profit

Player props - 79-59, +33.8U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF at +money & J-Taylor on SNF for another 4U)

TD - 9-22, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +23.6U so far 

Net balance:  +94.0U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 up to SNF - +23.7U)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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With a HUGE Week 7 in the rearview mirror, I'm going to definitely enjoy NO-SEA a little, and take a couple of YOLO wild card shots:

Player Props

Jameis Winston O1.5 TD now 4U +160 -   No Taysom, Sea pass funnel D    No way this should be plus money let alone +160.  Another big play after D’Ernest Johnson 8U TNF & Jonathan Taylor 4U SNF.  

Marquez Callaway O43.5 rec yards - No Michael Thomas yet, no Taysom Hill to siphon run-only plays out.   When Jameis is in, the chunk play is always there.   I think Callaway has a big day vs. SEA's secondary, but this could only take 1 play.   Easy call IMO.

I'll be interested once more NO receiving props come out, but until the injury report confirms whether or not Tre'quan Smith returns, there are no props.  Taysom Hill & Michael Thomas are already confirmed as out.


Longshot TD Props

Jameis Winston rush/receiving TD +750, +110000 2+ TD's - 1.2U / 0.6U (YOLO doubling it)

Juwan Johnson +400 TD / +5000 2+ TD’s (0.8U / 0.4U) - The SEA D has real trouble defending TE's, and JJ gets specific looks in the RZ from Winston & co.    
 

Total Risk - 8.0U (with more NO receiving props; not posted yet, will come once MNF inactives are out)

Again, Taysom Hill is inactive, so there is no RZ vulture for Jameis, and SEA is definitely a pass funnel D - so the O1.5 TD is incredibly tasty at +160 odds.   On the flip side, when they do break down, focusing on Kamara means naked bootleg, or Jameis scrambling, offers a TD opp.   So yeah, I'm going there.  Johnson doesn’t get nearly as many snaps as Alie-Cox, but much like LAC’s Parham, they look his way in the RZ.  
 

Let’s finish Week 7 strong, BOL! 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Next week the games that have caught my eye on the early lines:

Packers at Cardinals (-3.5)

Steelers at Browns (-3)

Patriots at Chargers (-6)

Cowboys (-1.5) at Vikings

Buccaneers (-4.5) at Saints

Games I don't like: Panthers/Falcons, Eagles/Lions, Giants/Chiefs

Will probably put Rams/Texans and Bengals/Jets ML in a couple of parlays.

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On 10/25/2021 at 12:02 AM, Broncofan said:

With a HUGE Week 7 in the rearview mirror, I'm going to definitely enjoy NO-SEA a little, and take a couple of YOLO wild card shots:

Player Props

Jameis Winston O1.5 TD now 4U +160 -   No Taysom, Sea pass funnel D    No way this should be plus money let alone +160.  Another big play after D’Ernest Johnson 8U TNF & Jonathan Taylor 4U SNF.  

Marquez Callaway O43.5 rec yards - No Michael Thomas yet, no Taysom Hill to siphon run-only plays out.   When Jameis is in, the chunk play is always there.   I think Callaway has a big day vs. SEA's secondary, but this could only take 1 play.   Easy call IMO.

I'll be interested once more NO receiving props come out, but until the injury report confirms whether or not Tre'quan Smith returns, there are no props.  Taysom Hill & Michael Thomas are already confirmed as out.


Longshot TD Props

Jameis Winston rush/receiving TD +750, +110000 2+ TD's - 1.2U / 0.6U (YOLO doubling it)

Juwan Johnson +400 TD / +5000 2+ TD’s (0.8U / 0.4U) - The SEA D has real trouble defending TE's, and JJ gets specific looks in the RZ from Winston & co.    
 

Total Risk - 8.0U (with more NO receiving props; not posted yet, will come once MNF inactives are out)

Again, Taysom Hill is inactive, so there is no RZ vulture for Jameis, and SEA is definitely a pass funnel D - so the O1.5 TD is incredibly tasty at +160 odds.   On the flip side, when they do break down, focusing on Kamara means naked bootleg, or Jameis scrambling, offers a TD opp.   So yeah, I'm going there.  Johnson doesn’t get nearly as many snaps as Alie-Cox, but much like LAC’s Parham, they look his way in the RZ.  
 

Let’s finish Week 7 strong, BOL! 

 

Well, a big 0-for-4.   The 30th ranked fantasy pass D  (24th by DVOA) playing tonight, and what does Sean Payton do?  Call up 22 runs by RB's (before the 3rd down run by Kamara, which was the lone good call) - for 44 yards.  Set up 2nd/3rd and long ALL game long.   Jameis wasn't accurate at all in the 1H - but the 2Q drive should have signalled how NO would have succeeded.  Frankly, Payton is fortunate to have won.   A total F game plan by Payton, if not for the missed FG's by SEA, would have cost him dearly.  

That kills my Winston/Callaway/Johnson plays (Callaway actually beat the over...until they called his play back, oh well, that's more normal to see than the crazy bad gameplan Payton drew up).   Bad on me for thinking Payton would do what literally EVERY other team would do and attack SEA's secondary.   And before anyone cites the weather - it was fine for the first 3Q of the game.     Oh well, that's the game.

Still a great week, but MNF is a downer.  Regroup, and get 'em Week 8!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING SNF:

ATS 21-13; 6-6 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +36.6U profit

Player props - 79-61, +28.8U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF at +money & J-Taylor on SNF for another 4U)

TD - 9-24, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +20.6U so far 

Net balance:  +86.0U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - 15.7U)

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With all the GB Covid-19 news, there are 2 crazy longshot TD props that merit a look:

Malik Taylor +1100 TD / +125000 2+ TD's (esp if Valdes-Scantling inactive) - this is more like a 0.4U/0.1U type dart throw.     Taylor at worst will be the 4th GB WR - but he may be as high as their 2nd, especially if Valdes-Scantling doesn't make it off IR.   Wait to see if MVS is active (they have to activate him off IR by 430 PM, so it's before the 630 PM ET inactive list).    If MVS is out, it's a dart throw, but with insane payoff.   We could also get another of the WR's left who test positive - in which case Taylor automatically becomes a top 3 WR and gets full snaps.  The other X-factor is that Taylor is a RZ skill guy, with the largest catch radius of the guys left, and he and ESB are the only 2 bigger bodies on the active WR list.    So I'm in now before any more inactive WR news drops his odds even further.

Kylin Hill +3300 TD / +15000 2+ TD's (0.4U/0.2U) - this is about 3 dart throw events being possible.   First, AJ Dillon fumbled, and got benched afterwards.  So there's a real possibility Hill could get more looks this week.   Second, Hill is very capable as a pass catcher, so GB's adaptation may be to have BOTH Jones and Hill out there on throwing downs, to use their best players.    Finally, there's always the chance of a Jones injury, or a massive ARI blowout, in which case, Hill gets way more work than expected.    Unlike the backup WR's who are being activated off the PS or coming off IR, Hill's had regular practice time.    So I could see 15-20 snaps for Hill, and in this O, the TD prop payouts are so insanely high, worth a sniff.    Before anyone adds that he's a KR, keep in mind the game's in ARI, so the touchback rate is ridiculously high (like >85 percent for Prater this year, as opposed to <40 percent in his DET years).

It's probably throwing away 1.2U, but it's also an opp to hit a big jackpot (Hill 33-1 is nuts).   I'll have more non-longshot plays once inactives are confirmed, there are literally no Packer receiving props out there this week (can't blame Vegas). 

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While we wait for TNF news with GB WR's, a few plays for this weekend:
 

ATS/ML/RACE

WFT ML +150, RACE to 15/20/25 (+140/+220/+300) @ DEN - 4 reasons despite being at home in Denver.   First, Von Miller is day-to-day with an ankle injury, and frankly, while they say it's a minor ankle injury, it didn't look minor at all (immediately ruled out in-game).   Von's a freak, but can't believe even if he plays, he'll be close to 100 percent.   As we literally have no other pass rushers, and our ILB's / CB's are depleted beyond belief, huge problem.   Secondly, our OL has been problematic, and against WFT's DL, that's a huge problem.   Thirdly, our QB play is a mess, much worse than WFT's struggles with Heinecke.   Finally, our game prep and management are a mess.   Frankly, if this was a neutral field game, I think WFT should be -3 or more.   And if Von Miller doesn't play, that line is grossly overinflated.    Again, this isn't a lock that WFT wins - but the dog money makes the value so good.  

DET ML +160, RACE to 20/25/30 (+180 / +275 / +425) vs. PHI - a couple of important conditions - Hockenson & Swift & the D guys who've been hurt (S Harris, DE Trey Flowers & Charles Harris, DT Brockers & CB AJ Parker) all appear to be set to return.   Swift/Hockenson make the O hum, and that D is keeping them in games.    I'm so impressed with the coaching and how well prepared they are.   On the other hand, Philly is getting dominated at the LOS, and frankly, their coaching staff looks overmatched.  This is one of the best spots for DET to get their 1st win, and as a home dog, I'm all over the value here.   

SF -4 @ CHI (pending Trent Williams) - yes, I faded SF hard at home vs. IND last week.  Yes, it paid off.  So why am I backing them this week as road favorites?  3 reasons - first, no Mack and likely no Hicks makes the CHI D really vulnerable.   Secondly, once you allow SF to succeed with the run, their pass game opens up - IND's success after the 1st 2 drives in neutralizing Elijah Mitchell absolutely stifled the 49ers ability to operate.   Finally, the Bears are just lost O-scheme wise - Nagy has shown how bad of an O mind he is - zero imagination or adaptation to what Fields can do (while accentuating all the skills he's still trying to learn), and amplifying all the oL / read problems by having slowly-developing routes.   Just a disaster all around.    Without Mack/Hicks, and with Nagy, the Bears are truly a bottom-5 team this week, while the 49ers are flawed, they're not even in the same stratosphere.    I see a 7-10 pt win, so I'll take the chance against getting a back-door cover.

 

I'm also very tempted to take the JAX ML / RACE to 15/20/25 @ SEA, but one thing that's holding me back - Urban Meyer's total inability to game manage opportunities.    Still, I'll mull that one over - the value is so good on what I think should be a pick 'em match.

 

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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I did a 7.5 pt teaser 

GB +14, Bengals -3, Bills -6.5

 

I really like the Bengals -10 this weekend. Their offense is getting all of the love right now but their defense is GOOD. Jets without wilson might get shut out. Flacco is unvaccinated I guess because he cant join the team until Friday. The jets havent scored in the first quarter all season. The bengals just have mismatches everywhere. This game shouldnt be close. I will probably lay the points in the first half with them as well. I get that its a potential trap game considering its sandwiched between two divisional games, but I really dont see the bengals taking any weeks off. Its the same thing I saw with the 2019 niners, when you are a losing team for a long time, you really appreciate how hard it is to win and you show up every week. 

Rams Houston over 47 feels like the right side to be on. Tyrod taylor is back which makes me hesitant to lay 14 with the rams, but I think he will put together enough drives to push the over. The rams offense should drop 30, no problem. 

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On 10/27/2021 at 8:40 AM, Broncofan said:

With all the GB Covid-19 news, there are 2 crazy longshot TD props that merit a look:

Malik Taylor +1100 TD / +125000 2+ TD's (esp if Valdes-Scantling inactive) - this is more like a 0.4U/0.1U type dart throw.     Taylor at worst will be the 4th GB WR - but he may be as high as their 2nd, especially if Valdes-Scantling doesn't make it off IR.   Wait to see if MVS is active (they have to activate him off IR by 430 PM, so it's before the 630 PM ET inactive list).    If MVS is out, it's a dart throw, but with insane payoff.   We could also get another of the WR's left who test positive - in which case Taylor automatically becomes a top 3 WR and gets full snaps.  The other X-factor is that Taylor is a RZ skill guy, with the largest catch radius of the guys left, and he and ESB are the only 2 bigger bodies on the active WR list.    So I'm in now before any more inactive WR news drops his odds even further.

Kylin Hill +3300 TD / +15000 2+ TD's (0.4U/0.2U) - this is about 3 dart throw events being possible.   First, AJ Dillon fumbled, and got benched afterwards.  So there's a real possibility Hill could get more looks this week.   Second, Hill is very capable as a pass catcher, so GB's adaptation may be to have BOTH Jones and Hill out there on throwing downs, to use their best players.    Finally, there's always the chance of a Jones injury, or a massive ARI blowout, in which case, Hill gets way more work than expected.    Unlike the backup WR's who are being activated off the PS or coming off IR, Hill's had regular practice time.    So I could see 15-20 snaps for Hill, and in this O, the TD prop payouts are so insanely high, worth a sniff.    Before anyone adds that he's a KR, keep in mind the game's in ARI, so the touchback rate is ridiculously high (like >85 percent for Prater this year, as opposed to <40 percent in his DET years).

It's probably throwing away 1.2U, but it's also an opp to hit a big jackpot (Hill 33-1 is nuts).   I'll have more non-longshot plays once inactives are confirmed, there are literally no Packer receiving props out there this week (can't blame Vegas). 

Assuming that Valdes-Scantling doesn't get activated, happy to take a stab above.  But for more stable player props, I've found 3 I'm willing to take, 1 for 2U:

Aaron Rodgers O10.5 rush yards - while A-Rod doesn't always rush a lot, when the team needs it, he's willing to scramble.  And given the WR corps is so depleted, I'd count on at least 3-4 rushes, so 11+ should be easily obtained.

Kyler Murray O27.5 rush yards - here, it's a reflection of the GB pass rush D - they are vulnerable to leaving big lanes, why Winston, Goff, Fields & Heinecke have all run for more than 30 yards.    

Randall Cobb O4.5 catches +135, 2U - it's the plus money that has me at 2U.   Cobb's clearly going to be the top WR, and he runs enough slot routes that he's not going to draw exclusive shadow attention.   I can't take the yardage prop at standard $ when I can get 5 catches at +135.  Sign. Me.  Up.

EDIT:   Zach Ertz O3.5 catches +110 - can't argue @SaveOurSonics rationale, and + money to boot.   


That's enough for TNF, don't see any great props for the other players, so leaving it there.  BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
I lied - adding @Saveoursonic's Ertz O3.5 +110 play
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Game that I like this week:

Patriots (ML, +200) at Chargers: The Chargers run defense has allowed 180+ rushing yards in 5/6 contests with the only exception being the Raiders game. The Patriots have rushed for 100+ in every game outside of the Bucs game. The Chargers defense has gotten absolutely torched the last couple of weeks while the Patriots have one of the best defenses and running games in the NFL. 

 

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5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan How do we feel about Arizona -6.5?

The Cardinals have won their 7 games by an average of 15.8 points, if you remove the Vikings game it jumps up to 18.3 points. The Thursday games are always a little weird though as favorites are 3-3 ATS and home favorites are 1-3 ATS so far this season. 

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23 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Game that I like this week:

Patriots (ML, +200) at Chargers: The Chargers run defense has allowed 180+ rushing yards in 5/6 contests with the only exception being the Raiders game. The Patriots have rushed for 100+ in every game outside of the Bucs game. The Chargers defense has gotten absolutely torched the last couple of weeks while the Patriots have one of the best defenses and running games in the NFL. 

 

Love the NE +5 and u49.   But I’m a little hesitant to take NE outright for 2 reasons: 

1. NE pass D isn’t nearly as good as in prior years.   Tampa game was heavily influenced by the weather.    The 2 NYJ & MIA game with Tua shaking rust and no Parker / Fuller week 1 are what are skewing the pass D numbers.  
 

 The Cowboys and even NO/Hou’s pass O had a lot of success against the Pats pass D.   LAC’s OL is just as good as DAL’s.   
 

2.  LAC just addressed a huge minus in their game by cutting their K and adding Hopkins.   
 

The rush D weakness is real.   BB obv still gets credit as a D coach.   So NE +5 / U49 I’d support.   Just would ge careful the pass D isn’t nearly that good.   It’s an area Herbert & co. can definitely exploit.  

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8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Love the NE +5 and u49.   But I’m a little hesitant to take NE outright for 2 reasons: 

1. NE pass D isn’t nearly as good as in prior years.   Tampa game was heavily influenced by the weather.    The 2 NYJ & MIA game with Tua shaking rust and no Parker / Fuller week 1 are what are skewing the pass D numbers.  

The Cowboys and even NO/Hou’s pass O had a lot of success against the Pats pass D.   LAC’s OL is just as good as DAL’s.   

2.  LAC just addressed a huge minus in their game by cutting their K and adding Hopkins.   

The rush D weakness is real.   BB obv still gets credit as a D coach.   So NE +5 / U49 I’d support.   Just would ge careful the pass D isn’t nearly that good.   It’s an area Herbert & co. can definitely exploit.  

I'm still rolling with the Patriots ML this week personally. The Saints only had 110 passing yards against the Patriots. And while Houston did have some success throwing the ball against them I think a lot of that had to do with the fact that the Patriots were coming off of a super close, emotional loss the previous week to the Buccaneers. I can definitely see Herbert and company exploiting their pass defense but the Chargers also aren't a very good rushing team either which will allow the Pats to drop guys back into coverage more often then not. 

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