Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Major opportunity for value - Jeudy props came out insanely low at Jerry Jeudy O40.5 rec yards.   Going 4U there. 
 

Also got Dan Arnold O3.5 recs and Jonathan Taylor O2.5 recs both at +120.   Love the matchup for catches and the plus money.   
 

James Robinson props for recs still not out yet.   Would like to add as well.  

Edited October 31, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Anyone got a reason as to why the O/U on WFT/DEN feels so low (44.5)? Too really struggling defenses with offensive playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thinking about locking that in before the bell. 

[MikeT14]

1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Anyone got a reason as to why the O/U on WFT/DEN feels so low (44.5)? Too really struggling defenses with offensive playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thinking about locking that in before the bell. 

Both teams offensive points last three: 10 ,13, 22 (WFT) and 14,24,19 (DEN)

[SaveOurSonics]

6 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Both teams offensive points last three: 10 ,13, 22 (WFT) and 14,24,19 (DEN)

Just tells me they're due 😉

I went ahead and locked in O37.5 there and U51.5 in Seahawks/Jags. 

[11sanchez11]

some of my bets this week:

PHI/DET U 48, CAR/ATL U 46

MIN -2.5, CAR ML, NE ML

Mike White U 2.5 rush yards lol, MW U 228 pass+rush yards

TJ Hockenson O 52.5 rec, Jeudy O 41 rec

 

parlays:

CIN, Rams, Bills, Car+2.5, Jeudy O 41 (+400)

CIN, Rams, KC, Colts -2.5 (+171)

NE +4.5, Saints +4.5, Fields U 28 pass attempts (+613)

[NYRaider]

I had a $250 parlay to win $2,100 and the Bengals blew it, lol.

[11sanchez11]

6 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

some of my bets this week:

PHI/DET U 48, CAR/ATL U 46

MIN -2.5, CAR ML, NE ML

Mike White U 2.5 rush yards lol, MW U 228 pass+rush yards

TJ Hockenson O 52.5 rec, Jeudy O 41 rec

 

parlays:

CIN, Rams, Bills, Car+2.5, Jeudy O 41 (+400)

CIN, Rams, KC, Colts -2.5 (+171)

NE +4.5, Saints +4.5, Fields U 28 pass attempts (+613)

Pretty good. Losing PHI U was fraudulent

[Broncofan]

On 10/29/2021 at 10:00 AM, Broncofan said:

 

 

My updated ATS/ML/RACE Week 8 card:
 

WFT +150, RACE to 15/20/25 (+140/+240/+350) - RACE odds improved, no penalty, so I took that.

DET ML +160, RACE to 20/25/30 (+180 / +275 / +425) vs. PHI - took earlier this week, nothing's changed

SF -4 @ CHI  - took earlier this week, nothing's changed

JAX +3.5 @ SEA - instead of the ML (which I'm really tempted on), took the points.   Carroll's tendency to keep it to a 1-score game, and the fact I think JAX is a very live dog, balanced vs. Urban Meyer's total lack of game management acumen.   So just take the points.   If I have a big Saturday win, maybe I'll dive into the ML/RACE, but for now, the smart play is the points.

NO +4.5 vs. TAM - with no Antonio Brown, and a hurting Gronk and secondary - this is basically a redux of last year, with the important exceptions of Jameis replacing Brees, and Vea disrupting the NO OL.    The thing is, Brees was the reason why NO lost to TAM in January.   Now, bad Jameis could replicate the same type of result for sure, and Vea being back is a massive difference maker.   And yes, no Michael Thomas.   But, Deonte Harris is likely back, and most importantly, Payton is far less likely to keep the leash on Jameis, when he knows he has to keep up with TB12.   Put it all together, and an upset W wouldn't surprise me.  But for now, I'll take the points.   

And for the record - I backed TAM to win the SB to start the playoffs, and took them every week ATS and on the ML (as dogs vs. NO & GB & KC).   So I don't say this lightly - NO is one of the worst matchups for TAM.   Their OL negates. the fantastic front 7 play of TAM, and that exposes their secondary's vulnerability to big plays.   Kamara's the shifty pass catching RB that gives TAM trouble.   And the NO D's ability to generate inside pressure, stuff the run, and Lattimore's ownership of Evans, well there's a reason why NO blew the doors off TAM midseason, and were 2-0 going into the playoffs, and had to go -4 in the TO game to lose to them.      With a healthy Gronk & AB (and year 2 with TB12 now commanding the O), I'd see how TB12 & co. could continue their 2021 roll and reverse their struggles vs. the Saints.   But the same reasons why NO was the hardest team for TB12 & co. to beat last year are still here this year.  This is very much an upset special as well, but given it's Jameis we're talking about, safer to take the points.

MIN ML +105 vs. DAL (SNF) - the ML has already moved to -145, and it's now MIN -2.5.   Glad I hopped on early and got this before the Dak-may-miss-game news cycle really took off.

 

Total stake - 9U (1U for each bet, and 0.5U for each race)

Player props next....

For ATS/ML & RACE - 2-4 with the ATS & 0-2 RACE, but since both dog picks lost, my net here is -5U.   DET was just a bad call, they came out flat after playing favorites so tough the last 4 weeks.   Same with JAX, going to have to factor in how poorly coached they are - as flawed as SEA's coaching has been, they were more than prepared compared to Meyer & co.   WFT the killer was 2 blocked FG and a failed 1st drive - kept DEN's O able to play ball control, and stay tied & go ahead late.     Getting MIN ML at plus money before Dak was a very reasonable shot, just underperformed.  Story of Week 8 lol. 

SF-3, TAM +4.5  were good calls (esp given the early timing with MIN being dogs early this week)

 

On 10/29/2021 at 10:48 AM, Broncofan said:

My Sunday Player Props / Longshot TD props:

Player Props

Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD +110 - I know, I know, he whiffed hard on MNF.  But it's TAM pass funnel D, and unlike the SEA game, Payton has no choice but to air it out, and keep up with TB12.   So while it's not going to be a 4U play, I'm putting this on the ticket for sure.

Justin Herbert O2.5 pass TD +180 - this is about the payout.   I know BB is great at taking out the best weapon - but in this case, LAC has 3-4 RZ weapons.   The other part is that while JC Jackson does a great job taking out his guy, the rest of the secondary & LB corps aren't nearly as successful.  We saw what DAL did, and LAC's OL and QB combo is just as lethal.   The way this loses is if NE can control so much TOP that it leaves no margin for error.  But if LAC scores 28+ (which I think is very possible), then 3 go by air.   It's not even close to a lock, but the payout is so good, I'll take a shot.

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 pass TD +120 - same idea, Sea's a bottom 10 pass D - and they're also a decent run D.    This also means one of my longshot TD props I've gone to before comes back again (see later down here lol).

Danny Jones O1.5 pass TD +130 - this is all about KC's pass D.   32nd pass D, if you're not going to take a plus money prop on 2TD's for a QB here, you're not doing it anywhere.  Now, Barkley, Golladay & Toney haven't practiced, so that means Shepard & Engram become more important (they returned).  It also means there's another prop worth taking, but I'll get to that later.

James Robinson catches (Pending) - unless it's a crazy number with no plus money, I'm all over this.  SEA has trouble defending the RB pass (well pretty much everywhere), and as of late their strategy is to concede the dump off.   That's all J-Rob territory.  I won't touch the rushing prop, because of Meyer's propensity to bring in Carlos Hyde, but I imagine we'll get O2.5 or O3.5 at plus money, I'll be over this.

I normally love Jonathan Taylor props, and this week is no exception - but for the injured ribs, which took him out of the game late vs. SF.    Very interested in his catch/rush yardage prop if he's OK.

Deebo Samuel O69.5 rec yards (no catch props out yet, will be interested) - the clear X receiver in their system, and against a depleted CHI D with no Mack / Hicks, and a secondary whose coverage depends on pressure, an easy call.  Will be interested in any O5.5 props at plus money, too.

AJ Brown O69.5 rec yards - the O5.5 is at even money, so this is a much easier prop to hit.  The YAC monster will easily hit this even with 5 catches.    Against IND's pass D, this is an auto-bet.

Michael Pittman O61.5 rec yards (also interested in catch props at plus money) - same deal as Samuel/AJ Brown.   Anything that's O4.5 at plus money, I'll be all over.

Pat Friermuth O2.5 catches +110 - with JuJu out, no problem in taking this prop.  The CLE D gives up 7+ targets a game, and he's now their other safety valve along with Diontae Johnson.   Easy call.

Jerry Jeudy O40.5 rec yards 4U - versus WFT and coming back after an extended absence I’m guessing it will be O4.5 / 60 yards.  I’ll take both and maybe even 2U each if it’s that low.   EDIT: Wow it’s 40.5 yards.  That’s a 4U play. 

Dan Arnold O3.5 rec +120 - the slow pace of the game has me worried but this is a plus TE matchup.  Love the +money I’ll go here. 

Jonathan Taylor O2.5 recs +120 - late addition but like the +money and usage as a way to get hiM in space and get away from Jeffrey Simmons

 

Stake - 14U  

 

Longshot TD props (0.8U / 0.4U unless otherwise specified)

Denzel Mims +1800 / +125000 2+ (0.4U / 0.2U) - unlike my TNF guess on Malik  Taylor this is known - Mims is taking Corey Davis’ spot (likely out with new hip flexor injury in practice).   While the odds are long with  Mike White and the Cin pass D, it’s 18-1 and 125-1 for arguably their best RZ WR (should have been starting over Keenan Cole anyways but that’s on the coaches - OC Mike Lafleur looks lost in year 1).   Smaller stab but at those odds gotta take a shot. 

 

Dan Arnold +450 / +5000 2+ - another plus matchup, and he keeps getting RZ targets.   As long as the payouts are this good, I'll keep taking stabs.   

Juwan Johnson +450 / +5000 2+ - if it's a Jameis air show week, until Michael Thomas is back - always worth a look at those odds. 

Danny Jones +500 / +5000 2+ - important dislcaimer, I will only take this if Saquon Barkley is still out.  In that case, the RPO where he keeps becomes very much an option.

Stake - 4.2U

I also put a 0.5U parley on my ATS / ML picks (WFT +160, DET +160, JAX +3.5, NO +4.5 & MIN ML for a nice 60-1 play when MIN was +105.   

 

 

 

TOTAL STAKE WEEK 9 SUN - 27.2U 

 

BOL!

6-4 in player props with Danny Jones O1.5 pass TD's pending, but with Jeudy missing by 2 yards (DOH), the 4U bet means my net is -1U pending Jones MNF bet.  Jeudy I'd do again, but for lower stakes given his first game.  The only silver lining is I expect similar low #'s and willing to dive in again vs. soft pass D's.    Winston's O1.5 is such a bad beat, given he already had 1 TD pass already - hate early game injuries.

0-3 with longshot TD props - sooooo close with Denzel Mims - literally had a TD catch, but he let it slip through his fingers.   That would have brought me square for Sunday by itself, but way it goes.  My net here is -3U with Danny Jones pending.

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING SNF:

ATS 24-16; 6-8 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +31.6U profit

Player props - 86-68, +22.9U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF at +money & J-Taylor on SNF for another 4U)

TD - 9-29, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +16.1U so far 

Net balance:  +70.6U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - 15.7U  Week 8 TNF - 15.4U)

Week 8 will be a brutal week to say the least; lesson learned on putting too much of a stake on props for returning players.   Danny Jones O1.5 pass TD & +450/+5000 2+ rush or pass TD's are still left, hopefully can get the ball rolling for Week 9.   

[NYRaider]

Patriots, Steelers, and Titans ML came through for me this week.

[NYRaider]

Looking at the early lines for next weeks games and the ones that intrigue me:

• Raiders (-3) at Giants

• Packers (ML) at Chiefs

• Patriots (-3) at Panthers

• Eagles (ML) vs Chargers 

[NYRaider]

If Tyrod Taylor starts for Houston I'll probably bet on them against Miami.

[Broncofan]

For tonight 1 team total & a few props added to Jones O1.5 TD’s & rush TD prop:  

NYG O20.5 pts +120 - think the KC issues on D aren’t going away.   No Barkley or Golladay but Toney, Shepard & Slayton all should play (and Pettis is an OK 3rd WR).    

Danny Jones O22.5 rush yards - gone over 27 yards 5 of 7 games.   No Barkley makes this more likely IMO.  

Patrick Mahomes O21.5 rush yards - another prop that’s been very successful of late.  
 

Kadarius Toney O4.5 catches - no one on KC can cover him. 

Very QB heavy but easier calls given how so many different receivers are in play.   Looking to end an ugly week 8 on a high note to get rolling into Week 9.   BOL! 
 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For ATS/ML & RACE - 2-4 with the ATS & 0-2 RACE, but since both dog picks lost, my net here is -5U.   DET was just a bad call, they came out flat after playing favorites so tough the last 4 weeks.   Same with JAX, going to have to factor in how poorly coached they are - as flawed as SEA's coaching has been, they were more than prepared compared to Meyer & co.   WFT the killer was 2 blocked FG and a failed 1st drive - kept DEN's O able to play ball control, and stay tied & go ahead late.     Getting MIN ML at plus money before Dak was a very reasonable shot, just underperformed.  Story of Week 8 lol. 

SF-3, TAM +4.5  were good calls (esp given the early timing with MIN being dogs early this week)

 

6-4 in player props with Danny Jones O1.5 pass TD's pending, but with Jeudy missing by 2 yards (DOH), the 4U bet means my net is -1U pending Jones MNF bet.  Jeudy I'd do again, but for lower stakes given his first game.  The only silver lining is I expect similar low #'s and willing to dive in again vs. soft pass D's.    Winston's O1.5 is such a bad beat, given he already had 1 TD pass already - hate early game injuries.

0-3 with longshot TD props - sooooo close with Denzel Mims - literally had a TD catch, but he let it slip through his fingers.   That would have brought me square for Sunday by itself, but way it goes.  My net here is -3U with Danny Jones pending.

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING SNF:

ATS 24-16; 6-8 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +31.6U profit

Player props - 86-68, +22.9U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF at +money & J-Taylor on SNF for another 4U)

TD - 9-29, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +16.1U so far 

Net balance:  +70.6U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - 15.7U  Week 8 TNF - 15.4U)

Week 8 will be a brutal week to say the least; lesson learned on putting too much of a stake on props for returning players.   Danny Jones O1.5 pass TD & +450/+5000 2+ rush or pass TD's are still left, hopefully can get the ball rolling for Week 9.   

 

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For tonight 1 team total & a few props added to Jones O1.5 TD’s & rush TD prop:  

NYG O20.5 pts +120 - think the KC issues on D aren’t going away.   No Barkley or Golladay but Toney, Shepard & Slayton all should play (and Pettis is an OK 3rd WR).    

Danny Jones O22.5 rush yards - gone over 27 yards 5 of 7 games.   No Barkley makes this more likely IMO.  

Patrick Mahomes O21.5 rush yards - another prop that’s been very successful of late.  
 

Kadarius Toney O4.5 catches - no one on KC can cover him. 

Very QB heavy but easier calls given how so many different receivers are in play.   Looking to end an ugly week 8 on a high note to get rolling into Week 9.   BOL! 
 

 

 

It was truly an epic bad week - thankfully the Danny Jones 2U O1.5 TD play cashed at 2U, but my 4 additions all lost - and Toney in the worst way possible, with him injuring his hand after the 4th catch, and never getting a single target and being a decoy the rest of the way.    Ah well, that's the way it goes. 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING SNF:

ATS 24-17; 6-8 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +30.6U profit

Player props - 87-72, +21.9U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF at +money & J-Taylor on SNF for another 4U)

TD - 9-30, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +15.1U so far 

Net balance:  +66.4U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - 15.7U  Week 8 TNF - 18.6U <ouch>)

Week 8 was brutal....big losses came from 4U play on Jeudy losing by 2 yards, and Mims dropping a TD pass in the EZ, plus L's with Toney getting hurt, Winston getting hurt after 1 TD - literally those were a 20U swing.  But that's the game sometimes.    Get 'em next week!

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

plus L's with Toney getting hurt

The Giants absolute refusal to get Toney involved offensively was so strange. 

[N4L]

16 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The Giants absolute refusal to get Toney involved offensively was so strange. 

strange, or completely on par with Jason Garrett and the fact Toney missed a bunch of practice this week? lol