Weekly Bets Thread

[NYRaider]

10 minutes ago, N4L said:

strange, or completely on par with Jason Garrett and the fact Toney missed a bunch of practice this week? lol

Considering Sheppard went out of the game and the last time Toney played he had 3 receptions in 5 snaps played, I'd say it was strange. 

[N4L]

On 10/27/2021 at 10:33 PM, N4L said:

I did a 7.5 pt teaser 

GB +14, Bengals -3, Bills -6.5

 

I really like the Bengals -10 this weekend. Their offense is getting all of the love right now but their defense is GOOD. Jets without wilson might get shut out. Flacco is unvaccinated I guess because he cant join the team until Friday. The jets havent scored in the first quarter all season. The bengals just have mismatches everywhere. This game shouldnt be close. I will probably lay the points in the first half with them as well. I get that its a potential trap game considering its sandwiched between two divisional games, but I really dont see the bengals taking any weeks off. Its the same thing I saw with the 2019 niners, when you are a losing team for a long time, you really appreciate how hard it is to win and you show up every week. 

Rams Houston over 47 feels like the right side to be on. Tyrod taylor is back which makes me hesitant to lay 14 with the rams, but I think he will put together enough drives to push the over. The rams offense should drop 30, no problem. 

Complete swing and miss with the bengals. The bolded really stings. I KNEW it was a potential trap game and still took it, lol killed my teaser too, smh

Bengals are a young team and they clearly overlooked the jets. I dont think they will do that again, but I definitely did not stick to some of my cardinal rules with regards to picking spots for teams. That wont happen again. 

ALSO - I forgot that the Bengals give up the most amount of receptions and rec yards to RBs in the league. The michael carter rec props were smash spots and I failed to see that. Even if the game was going to be a blowout, this was a PRIME spot to bet those. I am definitely going to keep that in mind and bet the over for rec props for RBs that play the bengals when it makes sense. 

Bengals play the browns and kareem hunt would have been in a PRIME spot to hit those this weekend, but I will keep it in mind for week 18 when they play again. Bengals play browns, then have a bye, then its raiders, chargers, 49ers. Eckler could have 8 catches in that game considering the chargers scheme. 

 

As far as this week goes... 

49ers - Kyler is hurt. Even if he plays, he wont be 100%. The 49ers got him on the ground last time they played. The 49ers have struggled with mobile QBs in the past, but guys like Russ would move up in the pocket and escape up the middle sometimes. Kyler seems to always want to bail on the edges and he gets really deep when he does so. Our edge rushers have speed and were able to prevent him from getting outside the pocket. I see no reason why that shouldnt continue in this game, if he plays at all.

Last time we played, JJ Watt wrecked our OL. He single handily blew up our run game. It was peak JJ Swatts. Its a huge relief that he wont be playing in this game. The 49ers offense is about to explode. I think Kyle has finally sorted it out and most importantly, I think the OL is finally getting it together. Word on the street is that Jimmy G was almost benched last week at the end of the first half, then found his mojo in the second half. I think with Kittle back, with key parts of our defense back (Dee Ford, Aziz al-shair, a LB who has been incredible). The niners have been a terrible home team recently, its been a loooong time since they have won at their own stadium, but I think they put an extra emphasis on breaking that bad streak and getting back to 500 this week. 

Buffalo -14. Its a big number, but its the best team in the AFC vs one of the worst teams in the NFL. Bills defense, especially their DL, is going to give the jags a ton of problems. The jags dont have the firepower to keep up. I am moderately worried about some sort of backdoor cover, so I will probably play the bills team total over, and the jags team total under as well. schematic and talent advantage. I will bet on those two things all day. 

I will take GB to beat KC, especially if Davante Adams comes back. MLF with some extra time to prepare feels like the right side to be on. D williams over rushing yards is certainly on the table as well. I think GBs style play, slow pace on offense, run the ball, control the clock, is a good strategy against the chiefs. The total is also too high, 54 with the pace that GB goes, with teams forcing the chiefs to dink and dunk and go on 10+ play drives rather than score fast, plus considering the fact KC will need to continue to run the ball and chew clock, I think this game will be very slow and deliberate. Both teams do score TDs and dont kick FGs though, but I dont expect a shootout. 

Rams should smash the titans. I will take the over in their team total all day long. Titans will do their best to try and keep up but youd think Ramsey would be all over AJB and depending on JJ's status, I dont know if the titans have the firepower to keep up, honestly. 

I am interested to hear everyone's thoughts on the Chargers -1 over the eagles?? Talk about an over reaction to last week. The pats are a good team and a bad matchup for the chargers for a number of different reasons that were outlined in this thread by broncofan and nyraider. Philly finally looked like a competent team for the first time all year, and I do expect them to run the ball a lot and control the clock, but I just think that they will get out coached this week and that the chargers should be able to have a big day offensively. Bounce back game for them imo. 

 

[Broncofan]

While we sort out some big news on GB, a few TNF and one early ATS play to take right now:

Michael Carter O4.5 catches +125 - 2U -  Carter's seen 10 targets the last 2 games.    IND's run D is stout, and yes, they're tough against the RB/TE's because of their all-world ILB Darius Leonard - but plus money for NYJ's top target is still a great value play.  Bet it now before the line goes down.

Michael Pittman O5.5 catches +110 - 2U - reverse situation, IND's top target monster and NYJ's bad pass D.    Again, bet it now before the line goes down.

Jonathan Taylor O17.5 rec yards - this one is at -110, so only a 1U play, given there is risk IND gets up big early, and Reich's tendency to not feed JT enough is sky high.    

Carson Wentz O9.5 rush yards - for all of his flaws, he's back to his mobile self, and whether it's a couple of RPO keepers, or a scramble to evade the pass rush, this seems like a strong play.   Wentz has rushed for 11 & 23 yards the last 2 games, where his mobility appears to have returned.

 

As for a Week 9 early play, hit this now IMO:

Las Vegas -2.5 @ NYG - 3 reasons.  First, the NYG WR corps is again decimated - we may hear that Kadarius Toney is banged up, we almost certainly will have Sterling Shepard miss the game.   Even if Kenny Golladay returns, he's so different than peak Golladay 2 years ago.   Secondly, we saw how bad the NYG OL is - they were killed by a KC DL that hasn't been able to mount serious pressure on decent OL's.    This is a horrible matchup vs. LV's pass rush.   Finally, the Raiders run game and pass attack, even without Henry Ruggs, should be able to wear down the Giants D.     A side bonus - the Raiders coaching staff has adapted well to life post-Gruden (I think Gruden was fantastic in pre-game planning, but horrible in-game - the replacement staff have done well), and Joe Judge's staff are falling apart (shocker with OC Garrett in charge, I know lol). 

The extra piece of info - NYG may in fact be even more shorthanded than expected - why I'm going to take LV -2.5 now, I think the line is crossing -3 quickly if any significant misses are announced later.  

 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, N4L said:

Complete swing and miss with the bengals. The bolded really stings. I KNEW it was a potential trap game and still took it, lol killed my teaser too, smh

Bengals are a young team and they clearly overlooked the jets. I dont think they will do that again, but I definitely did not stick to some of my cardinal rules with regards to picking spots for teams. That wont happen again. 

ALSO - I forgot that the Bengals give up the most amount of receptions and rec yards to RBs in the league. The michael carter rec props were smash spots and I failed to see that. Even if the game was going to be a blowout, this was a PRIME spot to bet those. I am definitely going to keep that in mind and bet the over for rec props for RBs that play the bengals when it makes sense. 

Bengals play the browns and kareem hunt would have been in a PRIME spot to hit those this weekend, but I will keep it in mind for week 18 when they play again. Bengals play browns, then have a bye, then its raiders, chargers, 49ers. Eckler could have 8 catches in that game considering the chargers scheme. 

 

As far as this week goes... 

49ers - Kyler is hurt. Even if he plays, he wont be 100%. The 49ers got him on the ground last time they played. The 49ers have struggled with mobile QBs in the past, but guys like Russ would move up in the pocket and escape up the middle sometimes. Kyler seems to always want to bail on the edges and he gets really deep when he does so. Our edge rushers have speed and were able to prevent him from getting outside the pocket. I see no reason why that shouldnt continue in this game, if he plays at all.

Last time we played, JJ Watt wrecked our OL. He single handily blew up our run game. It was peak JJ Swatts. Its a huge relief that he wont be playing in this game. The 49ers offense is about to explode. I think Kyle has finally sorted it out and most importantly, I think the OL is finally getting it together. Word on the street is that Jimmy G was almost benched last week at the end of the first half, then found his mojo in the second half. I think with Kittle back, with key parts of our defense back (Dee Ford, Aziz al-shair, a LB who has been incredible). The niners have been a terrible home team recently, its been a loooong time since they have won at their own stadium, but I think they put an extra emphasis on breaking that bad streak and getting back to 500 this week. 

Buffalo -14. Its a big number, but its the best team in the AFC vs one of the worst teams in the NFL. Bills defense, especially their DL, is going to give the jags a ton of problems. The jags dont have the firepower to keep up. I am moderately worried about some sort of backdoor cover, so I will probably play the bills team total over, and the jags team total under as well. schematic and talent advantage. I will bet on those two things all day. 

I will take GB to beat KC, especially if Davante Adams comes back. MLF with some extra time to prepare feels like the right side to be on. D williams over rushing yards is certainly on the table as well. I think GBs style play, slow pace on offense, run the ball, control the clock, is a good strategy against the chiefs. The total is also too high, 54 with the pace that GB goes, with teams forcing the chiefs to dink and dunk and go on 10+ play drives rather than score fast, plus considering the fact KC will need to continue to run the ball and chew clock, I think this game will be very slow and deliberate. Both teams do score TDs and dont kick FGs though, but I dont expect a shootout. 

Rams should smash the titans. I will take the over in their team total all day long. Titans will do their best to try and keep up but youd think Ramsey would be all over AJB and depending on JJ's status, I dont know if the titans have the firepower to keep up, honestly. 

I am interested to hear everyone's thoughts on the Chargers -1 over the eagles?? Talk about an over reaction to last week. The pats are a good team and a bad matchup for the chargers for a number of different reasons that were outlined in this thread by broncofan and nyraider. Philly finally looked like a competent team for the first time all year, and I do expect them to run the ball a lot and control the clock, but I just think that they will get out coached this week and that the chargers should be able to have a big day offensively. Bounce back game for them imo. 

 

I hear you on BUF-14, SF ATS, LAC -1 and believe it or not, I'll be interested in GB ATS line as a dog (but not as a ML pick) if Adams is back.  Not that I'm a big Jordan Love truther, but I don't think ppl realize how bad NYG's OL is.   I think that's the main reason why KC's D did OK.    I think the line is going to be hard on KC, and so there's dog value.

I think no JJ Watt is having a massive impact on ARI's D, and with a hurting Kyler, yes, I'm on SF ATS.   Wish the K situation was better (is Gould OK?), that's key to take a dog ML pick, I'm not there yet.

I think LAC -1 is a great pick, overreaction to recency bias.      I think LAC wins going away TBH, the only way PHI stays in it is winning TO battle by 2 or more (that's always a possibility, never a 100 percent lock, but it's pretty wide for even odds).  

TEN is going to be a dog - and man, I hate fading the Titans as a dog.   I'll pass on that one.

 

EDIT:  I guess it's a pick 'em with SF.   I still think matchup-wise, this all fits.  

Edited November 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[N4L]

10 hours ago, N4L said:

I will take GB to beat KC, especially if Davante Adams comes back. MLF with some extra time to prepare feels like the right side to be on. D williams over rushing yards is certainly on the table as well. I think GBs style play, slow pace on offense, run the ball, control the clock, is a good strategy against the chiefs. The total is also too high, 54 with the pace that GB goes, with teams forcing the chiefs to dink and dunk and go on 10+ play drives rather than score fast, plus considering the fact KC will need to continue to run the ball and chew clock, I think this game will be very slow and deliberate. Both teams do score TDs and dont kick FGs though, but I dont expect a shootout.

This was posted prior to the rodgers news so obviously its a no go for both of these for the time being. Damn. The under was very appealing 

I will circle back once I know what the lines are

Edited November 3, 2021 by N4L

[Broncofan]

On 11/3/2021 at 11:07 AM, Broncofan said:

While we sort out some big news on GB, a few TNF and one early ATS play to take right now:

Michael Carter O4.5 catches +125 - 2U -  Carter's seen 10 targets the last 2 games.    IND's run D is stout, and yes, they're tough against the RB/TE's because of their all-world ILB Darius Leonard - but plus money for NYJ's top target is still a great value play.  Bet it now before the line goes down.

Michael Pittman O5.5 catches +110 - 2U - reverse situation, IND's top target monster and NYJ's bad pass D.    Again, bet it now before the line goes down.

Jonathan Taylor O17.5 rec yards - this one is at -110, so only a 1U play, given there is risk IND gets up big early, and Reich's tendency to not feed JT enough is sky high.    

Carson Wentz O9.5 rush yards - for all of his flaws, he's back to his mobile self, and whether it's a couple of RPO keepers, or a scramble to evade the pass rush, this seems like a strong play.   Wentz has rushed for 11 & 23 yards the last 2 games, where his mobility appears to have returned.

 

As for a Week 9 early play, hit this now IMO:

LV -2.5 @ NYG - 3 reasons.  First, the NYG WR corps is again decimated - we may hear that Kadarius Toney is banged up, we almost certainly will have Sterling Shepard miss the game.   Even if Kenny Golladay returns, he's so different than peak Golladay 2 years ago.   Secondly, we saw how bad the NYG OL is - they were killed by a KC DL that hasn't been able to mount serious pressure on decent OL's.    This is a horrible matchup vs. LV's pass rush.   Finally, the Raiders run game and pass attack, even without Henry Ruggs, should be able to wear down the Giants D.     A side bonus - the Raiders coaching staff has adapted well to life post-Gruden (I think Gruden was fantastic in pre-game planning, but horrible in-game - the replacement staff have done well), and Joe Judge's staff are falling apart (shocker with OC Garrett in charge, I know lol). 

The extra piece of info - NYG may in fact be even more shorthanded than expected - why I'm going to take LV -2.5 now, I think the line is crossing -3 quickly if any significant misses are announced later.  

 

 

On 11/3/2021 at 11:11 AM, Broncofan said:

I hear you on BUF-14, SF ATS, LAC -1 and believe it or not, I'll be interested in GB ATS line as a dog (but not as a ML pick) if Adams is back.  Not that I'm a big Jordan Love truther, but I don't think ppl realize how bad NYG's OL is.   I think that's the main reason why KC's D did OK.    I think the line is going to be hard on KC, and so there's dog value.

I think no JJ Watt is having a massive impact on ARI's D, and with a hurting Kyler, yes, I'm on SF ATS.   Wish the K situation was better (is Gould OK?), that's key to take a dog ML pick, I'm not there yet.

I think LAC -1 is a great pick, overreaction to recency bias.      I think LAC wins going away TBH, the only way PHI stays in it is winning TO battle by 2 or more (that's always a possibility, never a 100 percent lock, but it's pretty wide for even odds).  

TEN is going to be a dog - and man, I hate fading the Titans as a dog.   I'll pass on that one.

 

EDIT:  I guess it's a pick 'em with SF.   I still think matchup-wise, this all fits.  

 

So revised card for Sunday - Monday games:

Las Vegas -2.5 @ NYG - see above

BUF -14 @ JAX - no J-Robinson absolutely kills the best way for JAX to face BUF's D, I agree with @N4L

DAL -9.5 vs. DEN - besides being a very flawed team with all of our injuries to our DL & ILB - we now lose LT Garrett Bolles, and CB Bryce Callahan.   DAL's OL should make mincemeat of our front 7, and our CB corps can't matchup with the WR corps (even without Gallup).   On the flip side, DAL's pass rush should make life miserable for Teddy B.   As much as I hate giving 10+ pts to favorites, in BUF & DAL's case, I'll back both.

SF ML vs. ARI +100, RACE to 20/25 (+130/+220) - no JJ Watt, and a very limited Kyler Murray.    SF gets to face the Cards with a more complete O (even though JimmyG isn't the answer), and a more balanced run game.    I'm not even factoring in if Kittle returns.    I know ppl will think this is recency bias - it's more that Kyler in limited form, and no JJ Watt on the DL, that creates serious problems for the Cards, and SF can exploit both problems (having Trent Williams back was huge for them vs. CAR).     If Kyler misses all week of practice, or even gets declared out - the line here will swing heavily to SF.  Going to get in now, given the likelihood of a limited Kyler; also will take RACE to 20/25 for the + money.

 

LAC ML -120 @ PHI (late start) - LAC has 1 weakness on D that both BAL/NE exploited; the power run game.   I just don't see PHI being able to replicate this.   And if it's pass game work, LAC excels.    On the flip side, Herbert had a subpar game - I expect him to bounce back, as the OL & supporting cast should have success against the PHI D.

All of the above single bets, and a 0.5U parley for 28-1 play.....so total risk 6.0U (and 0.5U parley) BOL!

Edited November 5, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

4 hours ago, N4L said:

This was posted prior to the rodgers news so obviously its a no go for both of these for the time being. Damn. The under was very appealing 

I will circle back once I know what the lines are

KC is now -7.5 but maybe Jordan Love lives up to his first round draft status. If Adams is back he has a ton of talent around him.

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, N4L said:

This was posted prior to the rodgers news so obviously its a no go for both of these for the time being. Damn. The under was very appealing 

I will circle back once I know what the lines are

 

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

KC is now -7.5 but maybe Jordan Love lives up to his first round draft status. If Adams is back he has a ton of talent around him.

The only reason I’m waiting to take GB ATS is I think casuals will hammer KC.   

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Las Vegas -2.5 @ NYG - 3 reasons.  First, the NYG WR corps is again decimated - we may hear that Kadarius Toney is banged up, we almost certainly will have Sterling Shepard miss the game.   Even if Kenny Golladay returns, he's so different than peak Golladay 2 years ago.   Secondly, we saw how bad the NYG OL is - they were killed by a KC DL that hasn't been able to mount serious pressure on decent OL's.    This is a horrible matchup vs. LV's pass rush.   Finally, the Raiders run game and pass attack, even without Henry Ruggs, should be able to wear down the Giants D.     A side bonus - the Raiders coaching staff has adapted well to life post-Gruden (I think Gruden was fantastic in pre-game planning, but horrible in-game - the replacement staff have done well), and Joe Judge's staff are falling apart (shocker with OC Garrett in charge, I know lol). 

The extra piece of info - NYG may in fact be even more shorthanded than expected - why I'm going to take LV -2.5 now, I think the line is crossing -3 quickly if any significant misses are announced later.  

As a Raiders fan this one scares me. The Giants defense has played well the last two weeks, particularly their defensive line and they were able to completely shut down Travis Kelcee last week. The Raiders OL has been mediocre and we really have no idea how the loss of our only deep threat will change our offense. 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

As a Raiders fan this one scares me. The Giants defense has played well the last two weeks, particularly their defensive line and they were able to completely shut down Travis Kelcee last week. The Raiders OL has been mediocre and we really have no idea how the loss of our only deep threat will change our offense. 

Barkley and McKinney just hit the COVID list.   More may be coming it’s ominous that the positives came from 2 different units.   We’ve seen COVID ravaged teams still win but the matchups just go so well to LV IMO.  
 

I get the home team pessimism but as long as it’s less than 3 I’m willing to take the shot.   My larger point is if you want to take LV best to go now.  I only see the line going up. 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Barkley and McKinney just hit the COVID list.   More may be coming it’s ominous that the positives came from 2 different units.   

I get the home team pessimism bht as long as it’s less than 3 I’m willing to take the shot.   My larger point is if you want to take LV best to go now.  I only see the line going up. 

The Giants defense has allowed 23 points over the last two weeks and has 8 sacks/17 QB hits. The Raiders have traditionally performed poorly traveling east in 10:00 AM slots. I think defenses are really going to attack our young, meh, OL with blitzes now that we don't have Ruggs.

[Broncofan]

On 11/3/2021 at 11:07 AM, Broncofan said:

While we sort out some big news on GB, a few TNF and one early ATS play to take right now:

Michael Carter O4.5 catches +125 - 2U -  Carter's seen 10 targets the last 2 games.    IND's run D is stout, and yes, they're tough against the RB/TE's because of their all-world ILB Darius Leonard - but plus money for NYJ's top target is still a great value play.  Bet it now before the line goes down.

Michael Pittman O5.5 catches +110 - 2U - reverse situation, IND's top target monster and NYJ's bad pass D.    Again, bet it now before the line goes down.

Jonathan Taylor O17.5 rec yards - this one is at -110, so only a 1U play, given there is risk IND gets up big early, and Reich's tendency to not feed JT enough is sky high.    

Carson Wentz O9.5 rush yards - for all of his flaws, he's back to his mobile self, and whether it's a couple of RPO keepers, or a scramble to evade the pass rush, this seems like a strong play.   Wentz has rushed for 11 & 23 yards the last 2 games, where his mobility appears to have returned.

 

As for a Week 9 early play, hit this now IMO:

Las Vegas -2.5 @ NYG - 3 reasons.  First, the NYG WR corps is again decimated - we may hear that Kadarius Toney is banged up, we almost certainly will have Sterling Shepard miss the game.   Even if Kenny Golladay returns, he's so different than peak Golladay 2 years ago.   Secondly, we saw how bad the NYG OL is - they were killed by a KC DL that hasn't been able to mount serious pressure on decent OL's.    This is a horrible matchup vs. LV's pass rush.   Finally, the Raiders run game and pass attack, even without Henry Ruggs, should be able to wear down the Giants D.     A side bonus - the Raiders coaching staff has adapted well to life post-Gruden (I think Gruden was fantastic in pre-game planning, but horrible in-game - the replacement staff have done well), and Joe Judge's staff are falling apart (shocker with OC Garrett in charge, I know lol). 

The extra piece of info - NYG may in fact be even more shorthanded than expected - why I'm going to take LV -2.5 now, I think the line is crossing -3 quickly if any significant misses are announced later.  

 

2-2 on the player props - but both 2U plays lost - Carter by a lot, and Pittman just bad luck because of how gamescript went (4 catches by 25 min mark...and only 1 more target the rest of the way, being up 4+ scores).   Ugh, start Week 9 -2U...oh well, way it goes.   

[NYRaider]

With Tyrod Taylor back in the lineup for Houston I think they have a real shot at beating Miami this weekend. 

Some of the lines that have surprised me:

• Bengals (-1) vs Browns

• Chargers (-1.5) at Eagles

 

[N4L]

On 11/3/2021 at 8:11 AM, Broncofan said:

TEN is going to be a dog - and man, I hate fading the Titans as a dog.   I'll pass on that one.

TEN as a dog with DH is a good bet. No Derrick Henry this week though. That completely changes the equation imo. 

The rams skill pos vs the back end of the titans defense is really what I like in this game. Titans DL has really stepped up recently, but Jeffery Simmons is injured and may not play. That man has gravitational pull like only 5 DTs in the league. Elite player. If hes out it completely changes the whole equation of their DL

Unfortunately it feels like the public will be all over the rams as well, which is why I may stick to the rams team total over. Cooper Kupp rec yards prop feels like a smash spot as well, even if its an inflated number. He is having a historic season and is WR1 by a mile in that offense. 

13 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Some of the lines that have surprised me:

• Bengals (-1) vs Browns

• Chargers (-1.5) at Eagles

 

Surprised you in what way? I already said I like the chargers in a rebound spot. They should be 3-4 point favorites against the eagles imo, even if it is on the road, it is a 1pm PST game so no issues there for LAC. 

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, N4L said:

Surprised you in what way? I already said I like the chargers in a rebound spot. They should be 3-4 point favorites against the eagles imo, even if it is on the road, it is a 1pm PST game so no issues there for LAC. 

I'm surprised that the Chargers are only a 1.5 point favorite against the Eagles. The Eagles had a dominant performance last week and the Chargers are coming off of back to back losses. But I've seen Derek Carr and Tom Brady both completely shred their secondary this year. The Chargers run defense isn't great but the Eagles haven't been committed to running the ball at all this year outside of last week in a massive blow out against the worst team in the NFL. The Chargers are going to score a ton of points, which will force the Eagles to revert back to their pass only offense, imo.

Edited November 5, 2021 by NYRaider