SimonGruber Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: The short week games are always a little hard to gauge. But the Patriots should definitely win although 7.5 might be a lot to cover. If Patterson doesn’t play we all know BB is going to zero in on eliminating Kyle Pitts from the gameplan. Atlanta’s scoring is going to hard to come by Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) One TNF play to look for - Mike Davis props. They might be artificially depressed because of Wayne Gallman's usage this past week. HC Smith has already come out and noted they pulled all their starters - so Gallman got 2nd team work specifically to keep the starters rested given the short week. If Smith's props (including receiving props) are really low, it's definitely an opportunity to leverage Edited November 17, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
braylon Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 21 hours ago, Broncofan said: One TNF play to look for - Mike Davis props. They might be artificially depressed because of Wayne Gallman's usage this past week. HC Smith has already come out and noted they pulled all their starters - so Gallman got 2nd team work specifically to keep the starters rested given the short week. If Smith's props (including receiving props) are really low, it's definitely an opportunity to leverage Agreed, I will be waiting for those. Unfortunately CPatt being a gametime call will keep those lines from being dropped until shortly before gametime I would imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 23 hours ago, SimonGruber said: If Patterson doesn’t play we all know BB is going to zero in on eliminating Kyle Pitts from the gameplan. Atlanta’s scoring is going to hard to come by The Patriots are surprisingly terrible against the run this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: The Patriots are surprisingly terrible against the run this season. better than last year but still not good. 14th in rush defense EPA, 13th in rush defense DVOA, 12th in yards per attempt against. Not terrible, slightly above average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/17/2021 at 8:44 AM, Broncofan said: One TNF play to look for - Mike Davis props. They might be artificially depressed because of Wayne Gallman's usage this past week. HC Smith has already come out and noted they pulled all their starters - so Gallman got 2nd team work specifically to keep the starters rested given the short week. If Smith's props (including receiving props) are really low, it's definitely an opportunity to leverage I don't like disagreeing with you, but I disagree. Davis looks like he's running with ankle weights on right now. Even if Smith was being honest about his Gallman remarks, he can't possibly be stubborn enough to ride the cold hand on primetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 (edited) The goal is to look for player props that can win in spite of game script. I think I've found two that I like after some light research. Matt Ryan O1.5 TD passes +120 This feels doable whether the Falcons win or lose. Win? Likely because Ryan is playing well at home. Lose? Ryan should be put in a situation where he has to throw the ball. Unless the Falcons come out with Gallman as the bellcow, Ryan should be what makes this offense go tonight. Mac Jones u5.5 rushing yards -110 I like this one a lot. He's hit the Over in only 3 games (5 games of 0 or fewer yards) and I don't see the Falcons defense forcing him out of the pocket too much, nor do they have the CBs to prevent him from his timing routes. This is another one that gamescript can't really touch. Edited November 18, 2021 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Oh boy. Rhamondre Stevenson lines just got released on my book. Does O/U 13.5 receiving yards feel like an absolute slam spot? Even if Harris is 100% and back to his regular utilization, Rhamondre is still going to be the preferred receiving back (I would assume) and could easily hit the Over against this defense on a single play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Still debating on that Matt Ryan play but locked in these two: Mac Jones u5.5 rushing Rhamondre O13.5 receiving Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: I don't like disagreeing with you, but I disagree. Davis looks like he's running with ankle weights on right now. Even if Smith was being honest about his Gallman remarks, he can't possibly be stubborn enough to ride the cold hand on primetime. Well I’m most interested in the receiving props (catches). I don’t think Davis has much left in the tank either - but it’s about what totals they post for the props. If the lines make it look like it’s an even split with Gallman I’m interested. If the props treat him like a lead RB not so much. The RB’s get a lot of targets when teams play NE’s D - something like O2.5 catches would be something I’d take. If the props are set so they make him a starter and it’s something like O4.5, no thx. Edited November 18, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said: Oh boy. Rhamondre Stevenson lines just got released on my book. Does O/U 13.5 receiving yards feel like an absolute slam spot? Even if Harris is 100% and back to his regular utilization, Rhamondre is still going to be the preferred receiving back (I would assume) and could easily hit the Over against this defense on a single play. Definitely worth a look. Only way it doesn’t hit is if they do all their damage on the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Gotta take one crazy TD prop just because of how juiced the odds are - Christian Blake +2000 / +12500 2+ (0.4U / 0.2U). Couldn’t believe it when I saw it 1 hr ago so I took it ASAP. It’s already down to +900 / +11000 2+. Likely it doesn’t hit but those payouts are worth a small stab. One more common one I’ll take is Hunter Henry +200 / +1200 2+ (0.6 / 0.3U - pays to shop around its +120 / 800 on DK). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 43 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Definitely worth a look. Only way it doesn’t hit is if they do all their damage on the ground. He's hit this number in 2 of his last 3 games with Damien Harris playing and, what I love most about it, is the Patriots have been designing pass plays for him. I went 2U on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Matt Ryan O1.5 TD passes +120 This feels doable whether the Falcons win or lose. Win? Likely because Ryan is playing well at home. Lose? Ryan should be put in a situation where he has to throw the ball. Unless the Falcons come out with Gallman as the bellcow, Ryan should be what makes this offense go tonight. I'm completely useless when it comes to betting NFL- but two questions I'd ask myself on this one 1) Matt Ryan was behind for 4 quarters vs Dallas- Why didn't he throw any TD passes against a worse defense than he'll face tonight ? 2) Are the Ryan/Falcons a strong home team ? "the 49ers .404 win percentage at Levi's Stadium ranks 73rd among 76 teams that have played 25+ games at their home stadium since the merger, ahead of only:Falcons .400 at Mercedes-Benz Colts .400 Hoosier Dome Bucs .393 Tampa Stadium" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: I'm completely useless when it comes to betting NFL I can tell. Otherwise you'd know logic has no place here 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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