Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

So no ATL RB props.  Oh well. 
 

But Damien Harris O55.5?   WTF?   That’s way too low.   Going with a 4U play.  

[DontTazeMeBro]

Feels like a trap but F it. Pats -7

[SaveOurSonics]

Kendrick Bourne to lead all WRs and TEs in receiving yards @ +700 🤔

Edited November 19, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[N4L]

I took the under in this game. I dont think either offense is really all that great

[Broncofan]

Blake's inactive, so the +2000 / +12500 bet voided. 

Damien Harris, please don't fumble or get hurt.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Gotta take one crazy TD prop just because of how juiced the odds are - Christian Blake +2000 / +12500 2+ (0.4U / 0.2U).   Couldn’t believe it when I saw it 1 hr ago so I took it ASAP.   It’s already down to +900 / +11000 2+.   Likely it doesn’t hit but those payouts are worth a small stab.  
 

One more common one I’ll take is Hunter Henry +200 / +1200 2+ (0.6 / 0.3U - pays to shop around its +120 / 800 on DK).  

 

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well I’m most interested in the receiving props (catches).   I don’t think Davis has much left in the tank either - but it’s about what totals they post for the props.  If the lines make it look like it’s an even split with Gallman I’m interested.  If the props treat him like a lead RB not so much.   The RB’s get a lot of targets when teams play NE’s D - something like O2.5 catches would be something I’d take.   If the props are set so they make him a starter and it’s something like O4.5, no thx.  

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So no ATL RB props.  Oh well. 
 

But Damien Harris O55.5?   WTF?   That’s way too low.   Going with a 4U play.  

So the Blake prop voided because he was inactive.   And there was no posted play for RB Mike Davis, which was too bad - since I only would have taken O2.5 catches, it would have hit at 3 catches (and no way I was taking yards lol).  

Hunter Henry got 1 EZ look, can't complain - but that's 1L at 0.9U for TD props.

BUT.....Damien Harris O55.5 yards +110 hits for 4.4U - easy W, totally no sweat there.

🤪🤪

Still, the reasoning was sound - Harris was unlucky in that on his 2H drives, the Pats went 3 and out on 2 of them - which kept him from getting comfortably past the O55.5 prop.  But hey, he got the 56+ yards so we will take it....

 

On to Sunday's games, a nice +3.5U TNF profit to start Week 11, let's keep the positive mojo going!

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 11 TNF:

ATS 30-24; 7-10 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +31.6U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 100-90, +21.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, J-Taylor on SNF @ SF, and Damien Harris on TNF @ ATL for another 4U each)

TD - 13-38, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD, makes this +27.4U so far 

Net balance:  +80.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +3.5U

Edited November 19, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Kendrick Bourne to lead all WRs and TEs in receiving yards @ +700 🤔

It was a solid play; ATL's complete ineptitude in the RZ removed NE's need to exploit the deep passing game.   

[SBLIII]

4 hours ago, N4L said:

I took the under in this game. I dont think either offense is really all that great

good play.

[SBLIII]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So no ATL RB props.  Oh well. 
 

But Damien Harris O55.5?   WTF?   That’s way too low.   Going with a 4U play.  

Harris not getting the most carries was surprising. Will be something worth monitoring going forward.

[Broncofan]

42 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

Harris not getting the most carries was surprising. Will be something worth monitoring going forward.

Yeah it was a total 50-50 timeshare.   Just his 2 drives in the 3Q had 3 and outs.    Hard to know if this was post TNF and also Harris coming off protocol he didn’t have as many reps so they could have reduced his workload just for this game.   Next week will be very telling if it was temporary or if this is the new MO.   Still, it was a sound play; looked like an easy W at halftime.   I’ll take it lol. 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It was a solid play; ATL's complete ineptitude in the RZ removed NE's need to exploit the deep passing game.   

Ya, didn't end up playing it for the record. Was too worried about the exact gamescript that unfolded. 

Really upset at myself for being so committed to the Rhamondre O13.5 receiving. Loved the idea of a prop that was attainable on a single play, but he blew past his O/U 36.5 rushing yards which I should've known was the safer bet. 

Besides that, I did hit on Mac Jones u5.5 rush yards (he got up to 5 on his last QB sneak, finished the game with 3 after two kneels) and Kendrick Bourne O36.5 receiving yards (another reason I didn't hit that +700, felt risky to double dip on Bourne). 

 

This felt like the first TNF game all year that pretty much went according to expected script, and of course it's just about the first TNF I didn't bet on any game result because I'm gun shy now haha. 

[Broncofan]

54 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Ya, didn't end up playing it for the record. Was too worried about the exact gamescript that unfolded. 

Really upset at myself for being so committed to the Rhamondre O13.5 receiving. Loved the idea of a prop that was attainable on a single play, but he blew past his O/U 36.5 rushing yards which I should've known was the safer bet. 

Besides that, I did hit on Mac Jones u5.5 rush yards (he got up to 5 on his last QB sneak, finished the game with 3 after two kneels) and Kendrick Bourne O36.5 receiving yards (another reason I didn't hit that +700, felt risky to double dip on Bourne). 

 

This felt like the first TNF game all year that pretty much went according to expected script, and of course it's just about the first TNF I didn't bet on any game result because I'm gun shy now haha. 

When it comes to multiple single game bets - matching them to the correct game script (and ID’ing the favorable matchups) is key.   It’s also going to produce huge swings if you get both right vs. getting the game script wrong.    Witness going Jameis heavy vs. SEA’s pass funnel D when Sean Payton decided to take the air out of the ball.   
 

As long as the process is sound and bankroll management is responsible good evaluations will bear profit.   At the very least last night restores confidence you are reading the game script properly.  

Edited November 19, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

What are some of the games y'all like this weekend? @N4L @Broncofan@SaveOurSonics @agarcia34

[bigbadbuff]

How tf is Cleveland only a 12.5 favorite at home against Detroit?

[Broncofan]

Alright, a lighter card than in prior weeks player prop wise, more ATS / RACE’s, a LOT of injuries changed my plays, here goes:

ATS/RACE (0.5U per RACE):

EARLY 1 PM

CAR -3 (now -3.5) vs. WFT - took this 2 days ago, thankfully - hate when the line goes past 3.   I'd still back this if forced to decide.    With Chase Young out, and an O that won't turn it over so recklessly, and likely a fully healthy and full-workload CMC (he's only been in there 70 percent of snaps), plus the CAR D getting to attack Heinecke, I'll back this easily.

MIA -3 @ NYJ -130 - I'll shave half a point and take the -130 instead of -105 being offered.   The MIA D has found its identity, their run D is better, and now they get to face a statue in Joe Flacco.     Meanwhile Tua led O is a lot better than a Brissett led O.  Honestly, the only way I see NYJ keeping it close is TO's, but I still feel better with the solid 3 line on a favorite.

NO - PHI U43 (now 42.5) - I had NO as a dog over PHI, but that was before both T's and Kamara were declared out.  Instead, I'll back the NO #1 run D by DVOA, and the PHI D vs. Siemien, limiting this to a 20-17 type game.  

EDIT SUN AM Addition:  MIN ML +120, RACE to 20/25 (+125 / 200) - this is all about how MiN matches up.   They’ve given GB fits in the past and I don’t expect much to change.   Losing Aaron Jones limits their diversity (while I have no doubt AJ Dillon is a good replacenfht, using them both at the same time helped overcome this problem).   On the flip side, Cook & the WR’s plus Conklin find a way to exploit the softest matchup.   I like the RACE even more than the ML, as like IND, MiN is prone to giving up leads late, but the spread doesn’t justify an ATS pick, so ML it is. 

IND +7 @BUF, RACE to 20/25 (+250 / +500) - weird play, you say.  Well I think IND has a real shot to win - but I'm terrified of Frank Reich game management (and late Carson Wentz mistakes) blowing the game.   So I'll take the points, but also take the mega + money on IND RACES.   BUF could come back, and I'll still cash out big time.   

LATE 4 PM 

DAL ML +140 @KC, RACE to 25/30/35 pts (+170/+280/+425) - tougher with Amari Cooper out, and if DAL sticks with man coverage, this is a big 2.5U L.   But DC Dan Quinn is so familiar with the Cover-3 scheme that's given KC fits.   KC flipped the script on LV last week - but IMO it's a gamescript issue - if DAL can get the lead, Mahomes & KC O staying patient is a lot harder.     Definitely more of a feel call than anything else. 

I'll also add a 0.5U 5-leg parley with all of the above ATS/ML plays  except MIN for +3100 as well....so that makes it 10.0U on the line...

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY 1 PM 

Jonathan Taylor O73.5 rush yards 2.2U (to win 2U) - yes, I know BUF has a good rush D.   But IND's OL is clicking, and Taylor is reaching another level in vision/making guys miss.

D'onta Foreman O58.5 rush yards 2.2U (to win 2U) - he's taken over as the top guy in TEN.  AP doesn't look he's in game shape.  This is an easy play IMO.

Devonta Smith O4.5 catches +140 - I know, I know, he'll draw Lattimore.   The thing is - I don't see PHI's run O working nearly as well.   The volume will be there.  Lattimore may win the war, but I expect a 6/50 type line from Smith at worst.  For +money, gotta take a shot.

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +110 (now +100) - easy call with TEN's pass D.

Mike Gesicki O4.5 catches +100 (now -115) - an overreaction to TNF, where he got 0 catches, on 7 targets

Marcus Johnson O31.5 receiving yards - way too low for TEN's #2 WR.   Julio is out.

LATE 4 PM

Dalton Schultz O47.5 receiving yards +100 - with Cooper out, Schultz moves up to the top 3 in targets, and maybe even 2nd guy (after Lamb).   He also gets to see a lot of Sorensen for KC - that's a prop to always take (plus another).

So that's 9.4U at risk for player props.

 

LONGSHOT TD (with 1 non-longshot)

EARLY 1 PM

Adam Trautman +550 /+8000 2+ (0.6U/ 0.3U) -  I really wanted to be more aggressive here, as PHI is vulnerable to the TE in the RZ and overall - but the news that both T's are out really puts the risk he'll be asked to block a lot.  I was going to take yards or catches props, but backed out with this news.   Ironically, I think this might help the TD prop, though - as he may decoy blocking and score.  

EDIT SUN AM ADDITION: Juwan Johnson +1200 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.2U - if Trautman doesn’t get the looks in the EZ because he’s blocking - Johnson is the guy they designate plays for  .   At those odds I’ll definitely hedge on both. 

EDIT SAT PM ADDITION: Nico Collins +550 / +8000 2+ 0.6U / 0.3U - while I love Cooks’ catch prop, I’ll target their best big body WR who’s clearly coming on. 

LATE 4 PM

Ceedee Lamb +162 / +1100 1st TD (1.5u / 0.5U) - this one I got just as the Cooper news broke, there weren't multi-TD props.  The line is now -140 and +350.   Just had to take a shot when it was there.

Dalton Schultz +260 / +2500 2+ (now +240 / +2000 - 0.8U / 0.4U) - see above blurb on player props.   Will be a RZ target.  

So that's a 5.6U risk for TD's.

 

With a nice 3.5U profit on TNF, I'll settle in with a 25U  risk for Sunday, and see where things lead me for SNF/MNF.  BOL!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 11 TNF:

ATS 30-24; 7-10 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +31.6U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 100-90, +21.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, J-Taylor on SNF @ SF, and Damien Harris on TNF @ ATL for another 4U each)

TD - 13-38, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD, makes this +27.4U so far 

Net balance:  +80.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +3.5U

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Broncofan