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On 11/27/2021 at 2:38 AM, Broncofan said:

OK for Sunday, looking to bounce back, not many player props (but most of them are for + money), and a pretty full slate of ATS/ML & RACE plays...

SUNDAY

ATS/ML & RACE (0.5U each for RACE)

EARLY

TEN +6.5 @ NE - I know, I know, TEN is decimated, NE is on a roll - how on earth do I roll this way?  Again, I'll point out that TEN as dogs are kings....and incredibly disappointing as favorites, and why I've pretty much faded / avoided them as favorites.  If I had REAL conviction, I'd hit the +240 ML and the 20/25 RACE for +250 / +450 lol.   Not there yet, but I'll take a stab at TEN with points for sure.    If Turkey Day goes real well, then I may add RACE to 20/25 as well, but not there yet.   EDIT:  With news AJ Brown is very iffy, going to have to back off this one.

IND ML +150 vs. TAM, RACE to 20 / 25 / 30 (+150 / +250 / +450) - PENDING VEA INJURY NEWS - this is simple; if Vita Vea is there, it makes this less appealing, but if Vea is missing, the TAM run D becomes very beatable (NYG's OL is awful, so couldn't take advantage, but better OL's can).    I also think as much as Wentz is prone to massive mistakes, unlike NYG, IND won't be afraid to pepper Michael Pittman when they do need to pass (Pittman's a core DFS play this week).   IND has a pass funnel D, so this could absolutely be a shootout - but for now, I'll stick with 20/25 as "safer" RACE plays (if there's such a thing).  EDIT SAT PM:  With news that both Vea and Devin White are true GTD's, I'm willing to take the ML & RACE shot, and I'll add the RACE to 30 pts, too.

PHI -3.5 @ NYG - I'm disappointed Jason Garrett got fired, because frankly, if he was calling the plays, I'd have taken an alternate spread of PHI -6.5 for +150.    I have a lot more respect for Freddie Kitchens, but the bigger problem as I see it is that NYG's D can't stop the run, or good receivers, and that's before we talk about what Jalen Hurts presents matchup-wise.    Not crazy about 3.5 pts, but again I see a 7-10 pt win, so that reduces the chance of a backdoor L. 

LATE

LAC -2.5 @ DEN - Chargers could lose this with TO's, and letting DEN's run game keep the ball away from Herbert & co. on O.  Otherwise, I see a 7-10 pt win, so the risk of a backdoor is low with that 2.5 line.   Don't think any news would make the line shrink, so taking it now before the line hits that all-important 3-pt threshold.

LAR ML +100 @ GB - this is basically a pick 'em, but with the all-important news that LT Elgin Jenkins is out, combined with A-Rod's limited mobility with turf toe, this is an AWFUL matchup now.    Frankly, IMO LAR should be 3 pt road favorites.  So I'll absolutely back LAR here.   I get that LAR got smashed in the teeth the last 2 games - but their finesse based front 7 is not going to be manhandled the same way with GB's OL issues, and on the flip side, GB's weak links on D are going to get exposed by the LAR O.    Now, saying that LAR should be a 3-pt road fave, obv it's no lock, but to get even money when I think they win 60+ percent of the time vs. this present version of GB, gotta take the value.  

MIN ML +150 @ SF, RACE to 25/30 (+280 / +450)- I need to make sure everyone important on MIN is healthy, because they'll need everyone on D to just contain SF's run game, and Deebo Samuel / George Kittle.   The big thing here is that MIN's balance with Cook, plus their 3 WR's (Conklin should get easily neutralized by S Tartt's return), presents a real problem for SF's D.   If Kyle Shanahan cooks up a great gameplan like he did with LAR & JAX, the O can roll - but if MIN has an early answer and can get ahead, Shanny's inability to adjust in-game, makes the dog money & race-ing so sweet.  And as we have seen, MIN has issues giving up the lead late, but they're fantastic at getting up and frontrunning, so I have to take a shot on those inflated props.    I really see this similar to the IND-SF game potentially (with SF's O ceiling much higher obv, more talking the MIN O vs. SF D). 

 

PLAYER PROPS & LONGSHOT TD's

EARLY

Tom Brady O2.5 TD's +140 - I have IND as the ML wnner, but IND's D is a pass funnel D, so you give me + money on 3 TD's for TB12, I'll take it pretty much evey week.  EDIT:   The difference now is no Marpet & Evans likely hurting, along with key defenders White & Vea as GTD's - which increases the chance of a WFT repeat of ball control - so pulling this now.  

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rush yards +100 - there's risk here with Vita Vea and Devin White both as GTD's, but that tells me there's a good chance at least 1, if not both guys miss the game.  If that happens, this is a smash spot.   Even with them there, the OL is so good, and Taylor so dangerous, this could still win out.    

Michael Pittman O5.5 catches +130 (added SAT PM LATE), O65.5 rec yards - TAM's still a big pass funnel D, and there's no one who can take Pittman away completely.    I have Pittman for 80+ so this is an easy play.   The O5.5 catch +130 prop just got posted late on Saturday, I'm all over that as well.

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Rob Gronkowski O4.5 catches +130 - easy call with AB out, and Evans gimpy.  Gronk becomes TB12's safety valve, so at plus money, I'm all over this.

Najee Harris O4.5 catches +130 - CIN's D gives up the most pass catches & yards to RB's out of the whole league.  Combine it with Big Ben, no Juju and likely no Claypool, jeez, I'll take this easily.

Ja'marr Chase O5.5 catches +140 - with CIN's multi-pronged attack, I really like Chase to get fed this game, especially after 2 quiet ones.   Again, the +money makes this another value play.  

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Elijah Moore O55.5 rec yards - with news that Corey Davis is doubtful, this elevates Moore into #1 or #2 target with a leaky HOU pass D.   Easy addition.

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Pharoah Brown O14.5 rec yards - Brown is back to being the #1 TE, and with Tyrod Taylor back, it's actually serviceable.  The NYJ TE pass D is terrible, so this is an easy call at that low number.


TD PROPS

Pharoah Brown +400 TD / +5000 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) - Brown is back to being the starting TE, and man, if there's a team that has a hard time defending the pass in the RZ, it's the Jets, who rank 32nd in DVOA vs. TE's.

Brevin Jordan +1000 TD / +12500 (0.4U / 0.2) - as a hedge in case I pick the wrong TE (LOL), I'll take the guy with even better odds.   Basically, hoping either scores (and I wouldn't say no to 1 guy getting 2 TD's lol).  

ADDED SAT AM - Miles Sanders  +125 TD / +900 2+ (1.0U / 0.5U) - breaking my longshot only rule with news Jordan Howard is ruled out.   This is a smash spot for Sanders (and at his salary another DFS staple).   Boston Scott don’t vulture me otherwise the value / odds with how heavily Phi leans on the run is worth making an exception.  

ADDED SUN NOON - Keelan Cole +600 TD / +7500 2+ (now +500 / +5500 - 0.6U/0.3U) - with both Corey Davis & Denzel Mims out, Cole makes the top 3, and he's their biggest body.   Going there at those odds.

LATE

Matt Stafford O2.5 TD's +180 - this is about the payout / value.  I think a 3-TD day is about a 45 percent probability, but you're paying at almost a 30 percent clip.   Have to take a shot here.

ADDED SAT PM LATE Darrell Henderson O63.5 rush yards - I’ve called for the LAR W and when that happens Henderson thrives as the closer.    For this prop seems again 15+ yards too low.  
 

Brandon Aiyuk O4.5 catches +120 - Elijah Mitchell is a GTD - which means the finger is still an issue.   That also means Deebo Samuel plays less X position than we'd normally see, which gets even more targets to Aiyuk.   Another easy call here.

George Kittle O58.5 rec yards - another effect of Deebo being used in the backfield more, is that Kittle gets even more focus and more targets - so I'll take the yardage prop easily with his YAC ability.

ADDED LATE SAT PM - Jerry Jeudy O51.5 rec yards - with news Asante Samuel Jr. is out, Courtland Sutton's likely going to draw boundary coverage with Michael Davis, and Jeudy's going to have a really strong matchup here.   Easy call.

 

I also have a 0.5U parley on IND ML / PHI -3.5 / LAR ML / LAC -2.5 / MIN ML for +4500, so hoping I can catch lightning in a bottle, along with the 22.5U on the above props.  That puts 24.0U on the line (also have OSU -7 2.2U to win 2U, but that's separate).  Let's get back on track, BOL!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING:

ATS 33-29; 9-12 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +30.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 109-103, +21.6U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, J-Taylor on SNF @ SF, and Damien Harris on TNF @ ATL for another 4U each)

TD - 15-44, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD, makes this +24.1U so far 

Net balance:  +75.8U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (TG) - -6.7U)

 

Man, that was a horror show yesterday, easier to recap the winners:

-Brevin Jordan saved my bacon with a +1000 bet at 0.6U (I bet 0.6U/0.3U without realizing it, and mixed up my other bet with Pharoah Brown, no genius on my part, just a lucky mistake....lulz), Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rush yards at +100, INDY RACE to 20 +150, Matt Stafford O2.5 TD's at +180, and Gronk O4.5 +130, so that gets me 11.2U profit, but it gets me a -12.8U day....and a -19.5U week (ugh, ugh, ugh).   Decided to take the night off after that showing.   Pittman dropping 2 passes and slipping on a 3rd absolutely torched the IND plays, because even if IND lost the game, any of those hit, and IND likely gets to 25/30 first, and Pittman's props hit x2 - which literally would have been a 11U swing (instead of losing 4U, I win 7U).     Oh well, that's life with betting.

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING:

ATS 35-34; 9-14 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 113-115, +11.6U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, J-Taylor on SNF @ SF, and Damien Harris on TNF @ ATL for another 4U each)

TD - 16-46, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD, makes this +26.4U so far 

Net balance:  +62.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>)

 

Edited by Broncofan
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For tonight, going to stay small, with only 1 ML play, and 2 player props (but I'll have my eye on a TE longshot depending on inactives):

-WFT ML +100 - until SEA's D shows up, I have to go with the team with a little more balance.   

-DK Metcalf O65.5 rec yards - always a threat to get it all in 1 play, with WFT's pass D still being their most vulnerable part, easy call here.

-Terry Mclaurin O5.5 catches +110 - he's not coverable, so I'll take plus money with a pass funnel D every time.

There's one TD prop I'll watch closely - John Bates +600 / +7500 2+ (0.6U/0.3U), if Logan Thomas doesn't get activated from IR (doesn't matter who the starter is, they always look the TE's way at least 1-2x in the RZ for a score attempt).   But that's only if Thomas doesn't return, obv.

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Well, Thomas played, so the Bates props were pulled.   WAS ML came through, but DK & Mclaurin's props missed.    Going to learn my lesson there and just take opposition rush totals vs. SEA in games the 'Hawks are expected to lose.    SEA generates so few plays, going to be tough to back SEA player props.


That closes the books on a very forgettable Week 12, but there's one play bettors should be jumping on right now - Taysom Hill TD +300 / +3000 2+.    The line was +500 / +5500 last week, but with news he's getting 1st team reps, it opened much lower - and I expect the TD props will go even further for him.  And if you're going to bet 1 TD, you have to get a piece for 2+, even if Kamara plays, just makes the RPO more deadly in the RZ.

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On 11/30/2021 at 1:52 PM, Broncofan said:

Well, Thomas played, so the Bates props were pulled.   WAS ML came through, but DK & Mclaurin's props missed.    Going to learn my lesson there and just take opposition rush totals vs. SEA in games the 'Hawks are expected to lose.    SEA generates so few plays, going to be tough to back SEA player props.


That closes the books on a very forgettable Week 12, but there's one play bettors should be jumping on right now - Taysom Hill TD +300 / +3000 2+.    The line was +500 / +5500 last week, but with news he's getting 1st team reps, it opened much lower - and I expect the TD props will go even further for him.  And if you're going to bet 1 TD, you have to get a piece for 2+, even if Kamara plays, just makes the RPO more deadly in the RZ.

Only 1 other play until the DAL props are out that I'm going to add - Lil' Jordan Humphrey +900 / +12500 2+ for 0.6U/0.3U (same stake as Taysom Hill) - and a 0.2U stake on +4000 1st TD of game, for a total of 2U.   While I thought Juwan Johnson would take the role of move TE with Adam Trautman on IR, Johnson actually was asked to stay in and block more - and it was Humphrey who got 5 targets, and a LOT more snaps.    He's now their big body target, so at those #'s, gotta take a stab. 

With news that Cedrick Wilson is hurting and Amari Cooper is likely going to miss a 3rd game, 2 immediate downstream effects - first, that puts Ceedee Lamb in the slot (Noah Brown is an outside 3rd WR), unlike when Wilson is in, and takes up a ton of slot work.   That means I'm going to be on Lamb's catch & yardage props.  The other part - it puts Dalton Schultz back into the catch/yardage prop zone again.    Last time he missed by 2 yards, but truly bad luck, as he had 1 catch called back, and had 3 targets on the last 3 drives which missed.    

The DAL props likely aren't out until inactives are confirmed, so gotta wait for now.

EDIT:  With news that Cooper is now playing - forget the Schultz props if he's active.   It does make Lamb the main guy in the slot though - so I'll be all over the catch/yardage props when they come out.  It does lessen my enthusiasm for the other non-Lamb props though.

 

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23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Only 1 other play until the DAL props are out that I'm going to add - Lil' Jordan Humphrey +900 / +12500 2+ for 0.6U/0.3U (same stake as Taysom Hill) - and a 0.2U stake on +4000 1st TD of game, for a total of 2U.   While I thought Juwan Johnson would take the role of move TE with Adam Trautman on IR, Johnson actually was asked to stay in and block more - and it was Humphrey who got 5 targets, and a LOT more snaps.    He's now their big body target, so at those #'s, gotta take a stab. 

With news that Cedrick Wilson is hurting and Amari Cooper is likely going to miss a 3rd game, 2 immediate downstream effects - first, that puts Ceedee Lamb in the slot (Noah Brown is an outside 3rd WR), unlike when Wilson is in, and takes up a ton of slot work.   That means I'm going to be on Lamb's catch & yardage props.  The other part - it puts Dalton Schultz back into the catch/yardage prop zone again.    Last time he missed by 2 yards, but truly bad luck, as he had 1 catch called back, and had 3 targets on the last 3 drives which missed.    

The DAL props likely aren't out until inactives are confirmed, so gotta wait for now.

EDIT:  With news that Cooper is now playing - forget the Schultz props if he's active.   It does make Lamb the main guy in the slot though - so I'll be all over the catch/yardage props when they come out.  It does lessen my enthusiasm for the other non-Lamb props though.

 

Lamb prop is only one out - and we’ve got another prime time special.   Cooper & Gallup play outside and the best matchup is the slot - so I’m all over Ceedee Lamb O63.5 yards.   It’s a 4U play and I’ll do another 4U ok then catch prop if it comes out at O5.5 at plus money.  In the slot I think he’s going 7/85+ while Cooper gets Lattimore.   

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22 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Lamb prop is only one out - and we’ve got another prime time special.   Cooper & Gallup play outside and the best matchup is the slot - so I’m all over Ceedee Lamb O63.5 yards.   It’s a 4U play and I’ll do another 4U ok then catch prop if it comes out at O5.5 at plus money.  In the slot I think he’s going 7/85+ while Cooper gets Lattimore.   

Damn, Lamb's catch prop came out at 04.5 catches - but for -160.   No value there.   Will stick with O63.5 at 4.4U (to win 4U), and hope the line moves enough there's O5.5 at plus money.    If that happens, I'd add another 4U, but let's see what happens for now.   On the plus side, Humphrey is up to +900 for his TD, insane value for NO's 2nd target now, and the big body target they'll use in the RZ.     Will be taking the +125000 2+ TD prop that's inevitably coming as well, and the +4000 1st TD prop too.

Sadly, Taysom Hill TD is now down to +175 from the opening +300.   That almost certainly means the 2+ TD line is dropping below +2000, damn (as a reference, 2 weeks ago it was +500/+6000 2+).   Still on the +300 TD prop, but if it keeps dropping, going to have to reconsider the 0.3U 2+ TD prop.   Humphrey is now at +1400 TD, which honestly is insane (I get no one thinks Taysom will throw it to anyone, but someone gets the looks, and if someone is going to score a receiving TD, go with the big body).

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I've come back to earth the past 2-3 weeks.

Started the year 21-9 and I'm sitting at 28-21 right now lol brutal stretch. 

I need some locks.

What y'all got this week? I'm thinkin LVR -2.5 smells like a rat line but I really wanna take it. 

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20 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

What y'all got this week? I'm thinkin LVR -2.5 smells like a rat line but I really wanna take it. 

Such a hard decision...doesn't Vegas usually give 3 for the home team? If so, they're telling you that on a neutral field, WFT would be favored by 0.5 point(s), correct? 

Vegas snapped their 3 game skid last week and has a long week to prepare...man that's a tough one to say no to, I agree. I can absolutely also see them completely laying an egg in classic December Raiders fashion.

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10 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Such a hard decision...doesn't Vegas usually give 3 for the home team? If so, they're telling you that on a neutral field, WFT would be favored by 0.5 point(s), correct? 

Vegas snapped their 3 game skid last week and has a long week to prepare...man that's a tough one to say no to, I agree. I can absolutely also see them completely laying an egg in classic December Raiders fashion.

It's too good to be true.

Which means they know something we don't know lol

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1 minute ago, Ray Reed said:

It's too good to be true.

Which means they know something we don't know lol

I know...it's just hard to imagine that Vegas doesn't matchup well against WFT with that decimated WFT DL and being on a roll/finally looking healthy on offense...but man if that doesn't scream "trap" I don't know what does.

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1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

I know...it's just hard to imagine that Vegas doesn't matchup well against WFT with that decimated WFT DL and being on a roll/finally looking healthy on offense...but man if that doesn't scream "trap" I don't know what does.

Then Mr. Mouse is in the House cause I'm falling right into it

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