Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

43 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

What are the Carr prop bets on that game? 

 

25 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Haven't taken a look yet but definitely worth checking out if Vegas views this as a 2.5 spread

Derek Carr O276.5 pass yards is the most appealing prop for sure.   WFT is 30th in DVOA vs. QB's.   Their run D has improved since their early season struggles, so it's made it an even bigger pass funnel D, too.

[braylon]

Ingram's rushing prop set at 48.5.. I'm a big fan. The line is injury riddled and the Cowboys are getting healthy, as well as being 6 point favorites.. Definitely easy to see a gamescript where this bet doesn't pan out. But the threat of Hill will help create room for Ingram IMO and 48.5 is about 10 full yards too low to me.

[N4L]

Absolute SMASH spot for Ekeler's receiving props

Edited December 2, 2021 by N4L

[SaveOurSonics]

40 minutes ago, N4L said:

Absolute SMASH spot for Ekeler's receiving props

More content like this ✅

[Broncofan]

Ceedee Lamb O5.5 catch prop now +135.   Going 4U there (with 4.4U on O63.5 rec yards).  This is D’Ernest Johnson TNF Denver / Jonathan Taylor MNF SF level confidence.   The only games Lamb didn’t get to 6+ catches / 80+ yards were where Cedric  Wilson played the slot & the KC game where he got concussed. 
 

Please Ceedee don’t get hurt…LFG BOL! 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Well 2 late props came up besides Ceedee Lamb & the TD props for Hill & Humphrey - Dak Prescott O2.5 pass TD at +185 & Tony Pollard O2.5 catches at +110 now.   Took 1U each.  

[agarcia34]

Pollard over 18.5 rec yards. Has gone over the total 8 times this season. If Pollard gets at least 3 catches I think this causes easy. 

[agarcia34]

Cowboys ML and Over 64.5 Lamb rec yards SGP +160

[Broncofan]

Never had this happen before - books did NOT release a 2+ TD prop line for any players.  Oh well, guess it's the single bets only.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Never had this happen before - books did NOT release a 2+ TD prop line for any players.  Oh well, guess it's the single bets only.

So with that, I just put 2U total on Humphrey since Hill's +300 0.6U couldn't be played either (finished at +150) - so CASH IT +1400 2U BABY!   God I needed that 28U W after last week, won't lie it soothes a LOT of wounds from Week 12.

COME ON CEEDEE LET'S GET 6+/70+ and kick some *** tonight!

Edited December 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Them calling that 33 catch and run play by CeeDee a rushing FG play just sucks 

Edited December 3, 2021 by agarcia34

[Broncofan]

32 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Them calling that 33 catch and run play by CeeDee a rushing FG play just sucks 

It puts the O5.5 at risk, for sure.   And yeah, we'd have cashed O63.5 already.  But at 41 yards, still in great shape.   Come on Ceedee, get 4+ more catches, and 30+ more yards, and it's an amazing night (2U +1400 for Lil' Jordan already makes it terrific, but let's go for the sweep with Dak O2.5 TD's, Pollard O2.5 (plus O18.5 yards), and the Ceedee props guys!).

Edited December 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Even with the 33 yard catch-turned-run in the 1H - Ceedee Lamb in the slot vs a pass funnel D - MONEY IN THE BANK.

Lamb O5.5 catches / O63.5 yards with 8.4U to win 9.4U combined with Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1400 TD @ 2U (not having 2-TD props and Taysom HIll going from +300 to +150 was the best break I've had ever lol).  37.4U profit, with 2U pending with Dak O2.5 TD's unlikely, but hoping for Pollard's O2.5 catches at +110.   

D'Ernest Johnson 8U vs. DEN Week 7 TNF, Jonathan Taylor 4U @ SF Week 10 SNF & Damien Harris 4U Week 11 TNF @ ATL  , and now Ceedee Lamb 8.4U to win 9.4U plays all pay off big.   Winston @ SEA Week 7 MNF is the only big stake play that's missed, but I'll live with 4-1 on big-money plays (and learned from Winston).

AMAZING NIGHT....pretty much wipes out the losses from Week 10 & 13.   Nights like these are why we play the game, ppl.   
 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 12/1/2021 at 9:54 AM, Broncofan said:

Only 1 other play until the DAL props are out that I'm going to add - Lil' Jordan Humphrey +900 / +12500 2+ for 0.6U/0.3U (same stake as Taysom Hill) - and a 0.2U stake on +4000 1st TD of game, for a total of 2U.   While I thought Juwan Johnson would take the role of move TE with Adam Trautman on IR, Johnson actually was asked to stay in and block more - and it was Humphrey who got 5 targets, and a LOT more snaps.    He's now their big body target, so at those #'s, gotta take a stab. 

With news that Cedrick Wilson is hurting and Amari Cooper is likely going to miss a 3rd game, 2 immediate downstream effects - first, that puts Ceedee Lamb in the slot (Noah Brown is an outside 3rd WR), unlike when Wilson is in, and takes up a ton of slot work.   That means I'm going to be on Lamb's catch & yardage props.  The other part - it puts Dalton Schultz back into the catch/yardage prop zone again.    Last time he missed by 2 yards, but truly bad luck, as he had 1 catch called back, and had 3 targets on the last 3 drives which missed.    

The DAL props likely aren't out until inactives are confirmed, so gotta wait for now.

EDIT:  With news that Cooper is now playing - forget the Schultz props if he's active.   It does make Lamb the main guy in the slot though - so I'll be all over the catch/yardage props when they come out.  It does lessen my enthusiasm for the other non-Lamb props though.

 

 

On 12/1/2021 at 5:22 PM, Broncofan said:

Lamb prop is only one out - and we’ve got another prime time special.   Cooper & Gallup play outside and the best matchup is the slot - so I’m all over Ceedee Lamb O63.5 yards.   It’s a 4U play and I’ll do another 4U ok then catch prop if it comes out at O5.5 at plus money.  In the slot I think he’s going 7/85+ while Cooper gets Lattimore.   

 

On 12/2/2021 at 9:54 AM, Broncofan said:

Damn, Lamb's catch prop came out at 04.5 catches - but for -160.   No value there.   Will stick with O63.5 at 4.4U (to win 4U), and hope the line moves enough there's O5.5 at plus money.    If that happens, I'd add another 4U, but let's see what happens for now.   On the plus side, Humphrey is up to +900 for his TD, insane value for NO's 2nd target now, and the big body target they'll use in the RZ.     Will be taking the +125000 2+ TD prop that's inevitably coming as well, and the +4000 1st TD prop too.

Sadly, Taysom Hill TD is now down to +175 from the opening +300.   That almost certainly means the 2+ TD line is dropping below +2000, damn (as a reference, 2 weeks ago it was +500/+6000 2+).   Still on the +300 TD prop, but if it keeps dropping, going to have to reconsider the 0.3U 2+ TD prop.   Humphrey is now at +1400 TD, which honestly is insane (I get no one thinks Taysom will throw it to anyone, but someone gets the looks, and if someone is going to score a receiving TD, go with the big body).

 

21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Ceedee Lamb O5.5 catch prop now +135.   Going 4U there (with 4.4U on O63.5 rec yards).  This is D’Ernest Johnson TNF Denver / Jonathan Taylor MNF SF level confidence.   The only games Lamb didn’t get to 6+ catches / 80+ yards were where Cedric  Wilson played the slot & the KC game where he got concussed. 
 

Please Ceedee don’t get hurt…LFG BOL! 

 

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well 2 late props came up besides Ceedee Lamb & the TD props for Hill & Humphrey - Dak Prescott O2.5 pass TD at +185 & Tony Pollard O2.5 catches at +110 now.   Took 1U each.  

 

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Never had this happen before - books did NOT release a 2+ TD prop line for any players.  Oh well, guess it's the single bets only.

Well you all see the sequence - luckiest break I've had is for NO (as in zero, not the Saints team lol) 2-TD props to get released, and Taysom Hill +300 TD prop moving all the way down to +150 - so I put the rest of my TD prop $ on +1400 Lil Jordan Humphrey (2U instead of just 0.8U).   

So the net tally:

Player Props: 2-2 (Dak O2.5 misses badly, although they had their chances, Tony Pollard bad break in being at 2 catches after 20 mins, and not getting the 3rd catch)....but the key part is that 8.4U was on the 2 Ceedee Lamb props (4.4U to win 4U, and 4U at +135 to win 5.4U) both win comfortably (even with the 1Q 33-yard run taken away), so that gives me a terrific +7.4U profit.

Longshot TD props:  1-1 (Taysom Hill rushes for 100+ yards, but doesn't get a TD - but that's OK, because I'll take the Lil' Jordan Humphrey at +1400 for 2U for a massive +27.0U profit.

First rule after a massive score - don't give it away.  So will enjoy tonight, then be back tomorrow afternoon to look at Week 13 Sunday plays.   Hope you all tailed along for the Lamb/Humphrey goodness - 4-1 on massive-stake plays in prime-time, this is why we bet!  😎

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 13 TNF:

ATS 35-34; 9-14 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 115-117, +19.0U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 16-46, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +53.4U profit so far 

Net balance:  +96.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +34.4U)

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[N4L]

I know it doesnt count bc I didnt post it in the thread, but I hit some props tonight with the under zeke rushing yards, over pollard rushing yards, and over taysom hill passing yards tonight. I also had the under and cowboys-6.

basically, zeke is hurt and I felt they would use him more in pass pro and on the goal line, pollard gets chunk plays with his speed and 43 yards felt short considering he was going to get 10+ carries you'd think if the cowboys were running the ball with a lead. I knew the saints would fall behind early and they would need to throw. The busted finger was not helping but bulk passing yardage is not a real measure of QB play lol 

Didnt hit the trequan over yards, the callaway over yards, and the gallup over yards. How tf does Taysom throw for 250 with neither guy getting more than like 30 yards? I thought lattimore would follow ceedee and that dak would look for gallup. 

I had a bad stretch a few weeks ago and it felt like all the plays I would post here would turn to sh!t so I stopped posting in the thread for a little bit, but tonight was a good night and I think its time to jump in again. 

 

I LOVE the overs in the ekeler rec yards, receptions props for reasons posted previously. Going to hammer those

Over 14.5 rushing yards for Herbert looks fantastic as well. He has started to run more recently. He has some wheels. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/QB/CIN/teambreakdown/standard  This is a really low line "the bengals dont give up rushing yards to QBs" if you are looking at metrics without context. The Bengals have only played three QBs who even try to run all year (CHI, BAL, JAX), and in those games, they gave up plenty of rushing yards to QBs. Otherwise the QBs they have played are pocket passers exclusively. This line should honestly be like 25-30 yards. 14.5 is like 1-2 runs for Herbert with those long strides. At some point their linebackers are going to have to commit to stopping ekeler from catching the ball and that could leave the middle of the field open for herbert to run the opposite way of ekeler. 

I was very disappointed that the bengals chargers game wasnt going to be on SNF because it has the potential to be a super fun game. Joe Mixon over 86 rushing yards is a bit chalky but hes been on a tear with super high usage and the chargers defense is susceptible to the run game. They run the ball a lot. I dont have combined rec+rush yards but thats something id consider as well. 

There isnt a single person on the lions that can cover Justin Jefferson. They played in week 5 and he had 7/124. His production dipped in the middle of the season but something clicked against the chargers for that offense, Kubiak jr is still young and learning but I think they remembered that he is their best player and they need to call plays designed to get him the ball at least once or twice every single time they touch the ball. Hes been such a focal point for their offense. Last week JJ was pretty frustrated in Kirk and how kirk was playing. I think they will be looking to feed him. Over JJ yards

Last year I had great success taking the over johnathan taylor rushing yards against houston. Did it both times they played and won both times. This week its at 104.5 yards. I am struggling with it to a point because if I was the colts I would see the bye week next week and I would look back on the amount of touches JT has gotten recently and decide to try and find a way to limit his snaps to give him that superstar rest. The colts having a lead and running the ball would usually be a great time to have bet the over on their RB1. Realistically JT would be a big part of why the colts would have the lead in the first place, so ultimately I do think I play this one. WIth that being said, 105 yards is a very large yardage prop and its possible he has like a 60 yard reception or something where he ends up with like 50 rushing yards on like 8 carries because thats just how the colts decided to get the ball to him that day. 

The tweet I posted earlier about defenses who have given up a lot of receptions to RBs had Tampa as #1. Makes perfect sense because their run D is stout but also they play with a lead and teams feel like they need to keep passing against them. They play the falcons this week. I am going to ride the CPAT train and take his over receiving yards. He really is the engine of that falcons offense and I think they will need to throw the ball to try and keep up

like the vikings -7 because they are a good team coming off a loss playing a terrible team. Lions offense without swift is pathetic. Vikings defense has some nice pieces, especially if they can get some of their guys back on the DL

Give me Miami -4 against the giants. This is the miami team that everyone thought they would be in the offseason. Their defense has gotten their sh!t together and they are playing Mike Glennon. Saquon doesnt look right. MIA offense will do enough to cover that number IMO

49ers dont have Fred Warner or Deebo Samuel. The game is in Seattle. It wont matter. The 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball. The first meeting between these teams was an absolute fluke. 49ers DOMINATED in the first half, seahawks first first down of the game came with like 5m left in the 2Q, but it was tied at halftime. Garoppolo got hurt and then we muffed a friggin kick off and never made the comeback. The niners were a turnover prone team and had a lot of penalties in a lot of games early in the season. They have since sorted that out and have played very clean football on offense. Turnover rate dropped and so have the penalties. Their corners have gotten hit with some DPIs but for the most part the defense has played assignment based football. If seattle had a good OL and good RBs I would worry A LOT more about the niners LB depth. 49ers-3 all day long

I will be teasing all three of the non-player props. 

I will probably ride with the bills on MNF but TBD