SmittyBacall Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 7 hours ago, N4L said: I was very disappointed that the bengals chargers game wasnt going to be on SNF because it has the potential to be a super fun game. Joe Mixon over 86 rushing yards is a bit chalky but hes been on a tear with super high usage and the chargers defense is susceptible to the run game. They run the ball a lot. I dont have combined rec+rush yards but thats something id consider as well. o86 yards is steep, but the game plan will very much be centered around Mixon toting the rock endlessly until opponents prove they can stop the run. Taylor has shown no signs of limiting his usage, and our offensive line is really starting to gel in the run game. Like you said, LAC is susceptible to the run and Taylor knows this. Mixon will likely see 20+ carries barring some unforeseen gamescript, and hopefully breaks 1-2 big ones. This should be a fun one. I’m excited to watch. Also, Riley Rieff is a name to keep an eye on this week as he injured his ankle last game and has yet to practice this week. Obviously his absence would be a downgrade to the running game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Also worth nothing for @Broncofan and others, Ja’marr Chase is seeing a lot of bracket coverage in recent weeks, which is why we’re seeing a drop off in production, and is also why Higgins is starting to eat. We have enough weapons offensively that we don’t have to force anything Chase’s way. Something to keep in mind moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Also worth nothing for @Broncofan and others, Ja’marr Chase is seeing a lot of bracket coverage in recent weeks, which is why we’re seeing a drop off in production, and is also why Higgins is starting to eat. We have enough weapons offensively that we don’t have to force anything Chase’s way. Something to keep in mind moving forward. This isn't the week to hit Bengals receiving props - as @N4L mentioned, it's all Mixon, all the time, if the Bengals' coaching staff have a pulse. Mixon rushing props (if you don't like the yards <I do>, then hit the attempts, along with Ekeler receiving props FTW there .... Coming out with a preliminary Sunday card shortly, those 2 are defintely front and center. Edited December 3, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 (edited) OK not all the games have player props out, but here's what I have locked in already: ATS/ML & RACE (5U TOTAL) MIA -2.5 vs. NYG (now -4.5) - I took this on Monday as soon as the line opened. I just can't believe that anyone thinks NYG is as good as MIA in a neutral field. The MIA D is clicking, and the MIA O has finally figured out how to leverage Jaylen Waddle's abilities, and use Tua in a hybrid RPO pass scheme that lets him succeed. I think this is a 7+ pt win, so I can easily back -2.5 (harder with the current spread, no-brainer with this one, but I'd still back MIA-4 if pushed). LAC @ CIN U50.5 - this is about how both teams are succeeding on O right now. CIN has gone to a much heavier run based script...and LAC, to their detriment, has abandoned almost all types of verticality to their game. What this means - fewer lightning quick drives, and more 10+ drives that do score. Add in the LAC pass D that limits big plays, and the RZ struggles both teams have encountered, along with LAC's kicking woes, I'll back U50.5 than have to figure out who wins this. I think this is far more likely a 24-21 game (24-24 OT is how I get screwed here, but willing to take the chance). IND -9.5 @ HOU (now -10) - I know, I know, dogs at home are dangerous. But IND's record belies the fact they're a very talented team, it's been Frank Reich x2 and Carson Wentz for 1 game, that have cost the Colts. Then we add in the mismatch of IND's OL vs. HOU's front 7, and man, I think this is a blowout. Last time it was 31-3, and while Tyrod Taylor is back, I just think it makes it more like 35-17. Give me Indy here. DEN +10 @ KC (now +9.5) - do I think DEN wins this? Nope. Do I think DEN plays KC harder than the talent difference suggests? Yup. This could go sideways if the DEN O can't attack the KC secondary in the 15-25 yard area (a move that teams succeeded with early, but other teams recently have gone away from). But if this is a TO neutral game, I have it more like a 6-7 pt game. And there's always the chance Mahomes makes it a +TO game for DEN. I'm not brave enough to take the ML or RACE, but a dog ATS play, sure. And FTR, as it would expedite Vic Fangio's departure as HC at end of season, I'd be fine with a DEN L but cover LOL. EDIT ADDED SAT LATE PM - BAL -4.5 @ PIT - TJ Watt is likely back, but Cameron Heyward is out. The PIT O is a shambles and matches up terribly vs. BAL's pressure D. Have to take the Ravens here, I think it's 10+ pt win in a TO-neutral match. EDIT ADDED SUN AM - SF -3 @ SEA - can't argue @N4L's logic, been hoping to find dogs I like but keep coming up blank. I think it's a 27-10 type game TBH, the under is quite appealing too. So that's a modest 6U risk so far on ATS/ML, no RACE props that stand out so far. PLAYER & LONGSHOT TD PROPS (23.6U +0.4U 7-leg +7500 PARLEY) EARLY 1 PM Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD +120 - ATL's pass D is certainly vulnerable at 29th by DVOA, and with Gronk back, and more importantly, Ali Marpet (so takes away inside pressure) even without AB, I'll go back to the well here. I pulled this prop back last week because of Marpet's absence and IND's improving play vs. the run (with the disruption Buckner offers inside) - I see nothing of that here with ATL, so back to backing this prop. Cordarelle Patterson O38.5 receiving yards +100 - got this just as it flipped up 1 yard, happy to take it, agree with @N4L here, and CPatt gets to double up at both positions where he can get chunk plays and short safe ones. Easy call. Joe Mixon O86.5 rushing yards - I wish we had a rushing attempt prop, as I think he'd smash anything of O18.5 or less, but this is the only one, and against the 32nd rush D by DVOA, and Mixon's surge, easy call. Austin Ekeler O42.5 receiving yards - CIN is 31st in DVOA vs. RB's in the pass game. Another easy call that @N4L mentioned before. Josh Reynolds O33.5 receiving yards (now 35.5, still would do) 2U - I'm floored the # is this low. Yes, MIN's pass D is better - but that's on the pass rush. The coverage isn't. Reynolds could get this in 1-2 catches, and I'm confident he's Goff's #1 target now. EDIT ADDED SUN AM Jonathan Taylor O102.5 rush yard - screw it, not going to fade J-Taylor until he shows me he can't hit the prop. Will take out Pittman's prop so as to not compete (although I suspect both hit, will be responsible bankroll wise. Brevin Jordan +1600 TD 2U / +12500 2+ 0.4U / +6600 1st TD 0.2U - I absolutely can't believe the prop is that high. Jordan is now the TE, and as we saw with Gronk last week, IND is weak against TE's. Tyrod loves the TE. I'm definitely going 1U to try and hit a 16U win by itself (EDIT FRIDAY PM - screw it, I'll never see a value differnce like this ROS, I went 2U). Josh Reynolds +650 TD 1U / +7000 2+ 0.4U - not as crazy as Jordan, but Reynolds is now Goff's favorite target. +650 for top target against MIN's secondary? Sign. Me. Up. LATE 4 PM Derek Carr O276.5 pass yards - WFT 30th in DVOA vs. the pass. How SEA didn't leverage this more, it's an indictment of SEA's scheme and overall OL woes combined with Russell Wilson's physical and mental struggles (can't be all physical given he did throw about 5-6 dimes this past game). This is going to leverage into at least 1, if not 2 receiving props, as well. This is one @Ray Reed & @MWil23 called out before, I'm backing it with confidence. Logan Thomas O39.5 receiving yards 2U - OMG this is way too low. Not only is LV a TE funnel pass D, but the WFT D uses the TE as both safety valve on some plays, and then seam routes once they get near the RZ. This is a 2U play, now that we see Thomas is back to being healthy. Jimmy Garoppolo O1.5 pass TD +110 - this is riskier than on the surface, being an intradivisional game. But we know that SEA gives up a ton of plays on D, and it's still a pass funnel D. Teams get caught in the trap of playing slow ball with Pete Carroll - but I just don't think it will matter here as much. As we saw with WFT, the way to score on SEA is the pass, running is much harder. I can't believe Kyle Shanahan won't see that, with Kittle & Aiyuk EDIT ADDED SAT LATE PM Brandon Aiyuk O60.5 receiving yards 2U - wanted both receptions and yards but O4.5 came out at -130, so yards it is. With Deebo Samuel out, he's the full-time X, and against a pass funnel D like SEA, I'm all over both. Hoping we get plus money for the catches, the yards offers insurance in case he goes off on massive chunk plays. Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches +100 - this one is always risky if there's injury, because it will take at least 40 minutes to hit - but it's also such a safe play to bank on Diontae to get 10+ targets, and 12+ if they're behind. Much easier to bank on 7+ catches than it is to assume he'll hit mid-60's yards, though, with Big Ben (the yards prop). SNF Clyde Edwards-Helaire O12.5 receiving yards 2U - I don't know if Vegas paid attention, but KC is using the RB's a TON in the pass game as the way to adjust to the Cover-3 teams are using. DEN's already said they are using extended bracketing / shadows on Travis Kelce - which leaves the RB's as the main security blanket. Barring injury, I think CEH blasts past this, so I'm willing to 2U on this one. EDIT ADDED SAT LATE PM Jerry Jeudy O52.5 receiving yards 2U - yes, got burned last week, but that's because DEN went up 14-0, TeddyB got hurt, and DEN literally threw it 18x the whole game. I don't see that @KC obv. Of all the matchups DEN's WR's will have, he'll likely have the best chance to win. Albert Owuegbunam TD +650 (0.6U) - going for who Sorensen may be covering, and DEN uses a lot of 12 formation in the RZ. Not nearly as much of an opp as Jordan/Reynolds, so not nearly as much of a stake. So that's 18U in player props, and 4.6U in longshot TD props PROPS I'M WAITING ON (EDIT SAT LATE PM - BOTH ADDED ABOVE) Brandon Aiyuk O4.5 catches / receiving yards - want both. With Deebo Samuel out, he's the full-time X, and against a pass funnel D like SEA, I'm all over both. Hoping we get plus money for the catches, the yards offers insurance in case he goes off on massive chunk plays. Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches / receiving yards - yes, got burned last week, but that's because DEN went up 14-0, TeddyB got hurt, and DEN literally threw it 18x the whole game. I don't see that @KC obv. Of all the matchups DEN's WR's will have, he'll likely have the best chance to win. Willing to commit 2U to both guys, as long as the payouts are + money for the catches, for 4U more so long as the value is there. YOLO PARLEY I'll do a 7-leg parley with MIA -3 (-140) / IND -10 / LAC-CIN U51 -120 / Reynolds O35.5 rec yards / Thomas O39.5 rec yards / C-Patt O38.5 rec yards / CEH O12.5 rec yards for +7500 at 0.4U (YOLO) too. That brings me up to a total Sunday risk of 28U on the line. After an amazing TNF, hoping to make Week 13 the best week so far (week 1 tough to beat at >42U lol). BOL & LFG! 2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 13 TNF: ATS 35-34; 9-14 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS). Player props - 115-117, +19.0U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U) TD - 16-46, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10, and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +53.4U profit so far Net balance: +96.5U (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 - +12.2U Week 5 - +9.0U Week 6 - +8.2U Week 7 - +15.7U Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch> Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +34.4U) Edited December 5, 2021 by Broncofan LATE SAT PM / EARLY SUN AM PROPS ADDED - SEE 2 AM SUNDAY POST FOR DETAILS, UPDATED FULL CARD 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Broncofan said: OK not all the games have player props out, but here's what I have locked in already: ATS/ML & RACE MIA -2.5 vs. NYG (now -4.5) - I took this on Monday as soon as the line opened. I just can't believe that anyone thinks NYG is as good as MIA in a neutral field. The MIA D is clicking, and the MIA O has finally figured out how to leverage Jaylen Waddle's abilities, and use Tua in a hybrid RPO pass scheme that lets him succeed. I think this is a 7+ pt win, so I can easily back -2.5 (harder with the current spread, no-brainer with this one, but I'd still back MIA-4 if pushed). LAC @ CIN U50.5 - this is about how both teams are succeeding on O right now. CIN has gone to a much heavier run based script...and LAC, to their detriment, has abandoned almost all types of verticality to their game. What this means - fewer lightning quick drives, and more 10+ drives that do score. Add in the LAC pass D that limits big plays, and the RZ struggles both teams have encountered, along with LAC's kicking woes, I'll back U50.5 than have to figure out who wins this. I think this is far more likely a 24-21 game (24-24 OT is how I get screwed here, but willing to take the chance). IND -9.5 @ HOU (now -10) - I know, I know, dogs at home are dangerous. But IND's record belies the fact they're a very talented team, it's been Frank Reich x2 and Carson Wentz for 1 game, that have cost the Colts. Then we add in the mismatch of IND's OL vs. HOU's front 7, and man, I think this is a blowout. Last time it was 31-3, and while Tyrod Taylor is back, I just think it makes it more like 35-17. Give me Indy here. DEN +10 @ KC (now +9.5) - do I think DEN wins this? Nope. Do I think DEN plays KC harder than the talent difference suggests? Yup. This could go sideways if the DEN O can't attack the KC secondary in the 15-25 yard area (a move that teams succeeded with early, but other teams recently have gone away from). But if this is a TO neutral game, I have it more like a 6-7 pt game. And there's always the chance Mahomes makes it a +TO game for DEN. I'm not brave enough to take the ML or RACE, but a dog ATS play, sure. And FTR, as it would expedite Vic Fangio's departure as HC at end of season, I'd be fine with a DEN L but cover LOL. So that's a modest 4U risk so far on ATS/ML, no RACE props that stand out so far. PLAYER & LONGSHOT TD PROPS EARLY 1 PM Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD +120 - ATL's pass D is certainly vulnerable at 29th by DVOA, and with Gronk back, and more importantly, Ali Marpet (so takes away inside pressure) even without AB, I'll go back to the well here. I pulled this prop back last week because of Marpet's absence and IND's improving play vs. the run (with the disruption Buckner offers inside) - I see nothing of that here with ATL, so back to backing this prop. Cordarelle Patterson O38.5 receiving yards +100 - got this just as it flipped up 1 yard, happy to take it, agree with @N4L here, and CPatt gets to double up at both positions where he can get chunk plays and short safe ones. Easy call. Joe Mixon O86.5 rushing yards - I wish we had a rushing attempt prop, as I think he'd smash anything of O18.5 or less, but this is the only one, and against the 32nd rush D by DVOA, and Mixon's surge, easy call. Austin Ekeler O42.5 receiving yards - CIN is 31st in DVOA vs. RB's in the pass game. Another easy call that @N4L mentioned before. Josh Reynolds O33.5 receiving yards (now 35.5, still would do) 2U - I'm floored the # is this low. Yes, MIN's pass D is better - but that's on the pass rush. The coverage isn't. Reynolds could get this in 1-2 catches, and I'm confident he's Goff's #1 target now. Brevin Jordan +1600 TD 1U - I absolutely can't believe the prop is that high. Jordan is now the TE, and as we saw with Gronk last week, IND is weak against TE's. Tyrod loves the TE. I'm definitely going 1U to try and hit a 16U win by itself. Josh Reynolds +650 TD 1U - not as crazy as Jordan, but Reynolds is now Goff's favorite target. +650 for top target against MIN's secondary? Sign. Me. Up. LATE 4 PM Derek Carr O276.5 pass yards - WFT 30th in DVOA vs. the pass. How SEA didn't leverage this more, it's an indictment of SEA's scheme and overall OL woes combined with Russell Wilson's physical and mental struggles (can't be all physical given he did throw about 5-6 dimes this past game). This is going to leverage into at least 1, if not 2 receiving props, as well. This is one @Ray Reed & @MWil23 called out before, I'm backing it with confidence. Logan Thomas O39.5 receiving yards 2U - OMG this is way too low. Not only is LV a TE funnel pass D, but the WFT D uses the TE as both safety valve on some plays, and then seam routes once they get near the RZ. This is a 2U play, now that we see Thomas is back to being healthy. Jimmy Garoppolo O1.5 pass TD +110 - this is riskier than on the surface, being an intradivisional game. But we know that SEA gives up a ton of plays on D, and it's still a pass funnel D. Teams get caught in the trap of playing slow ball with Pete Carroll - but I just don't think it will matter here as much. As we saw with WFT, the way to score on SEA is the pass, running is much harder. I can't believe Kyle Shanahan won't see that, with Kittle & Aiyuk Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches +100 - this one is always risky if there's injury, because it will take at least 40 minutes to hit - but it's also such a safe play to bank on Diontae to get 10+ targets, and 12+ if they're behind. Much easier to bank on 7+ catches than it is to assume he'll hit mid-60's yards, though, with Big Ben (the yards prop). SNF Clyde Edwards-Helaire O12.5 receiving yards 2U - I don't know if Vegas paid attention, but KC is using the RB's a TON in the pass game as the way to adjust to the Cover-3 teams are using. DEN's already said they are using extended bracketing / shadows on Travis Kelce - which leaves the RB's as the main security blanket. Barring injury, I think CEH blasts past this, so I'm willing to 2U on this one. Albert Owuegbunam TD +650 (0.6U) - going for who Sorensen may be covering, and DEN uses a lot of 12 formation in the RZ. Not nearly as much of an opp as Jordan/Reynolds, so not nearly as much of a stake. So that's 13U in player props, and 2.6U in longshot TD props PROPS I'M WAITING ON Brandon Aiyuk O4.5 catches / receiving yards - want both. With Deebo Samuel out, he's the full-time X, and against a pass funnel D like SEA, I'm all over both. Hoping we get plus money for the catches, the yards offers insurance in case he goes off on massive chunk plays. Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches / receiving yards - yes, got burned last week, but that's because DEN went up 14-0, TeddyB got hurt, and DEN literally threw it 18x the whole game. I don't see that @KC obv. Of all the matchups DEN's WR's will have, he'll likely have the best chance to win. Willing to commit 2U to both guys, as long as the payouts are + money for the catches, for 4U more so long as the value is there. YOLO PARLEY I'll do a 7-leg parley with MIA -3 (-140) / IND -10 / LAC-CIN U51 -120 / Reynolds O35.5 rec yards / Thomas O39.5 rec yards / C-Patt O38.5 rec yards / CEH O12.5 rec yards for +7500 at 0.4U (YOLO) too. That brings me up to a total Sunday risk of 20U on the line, with 4U more if I get Aiyuk & Jeudy added in. After an amazing TNF, hoping to make Week 13 the best week so far (week 1 tough to beat at >42U lol). BOL & LFG! 2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 13 TNF: ATS 35-34; 9-14 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS). Player props - 115-117, +19.0U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U) TD - 16-46, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10, and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +53.4U profit so far Net balance: +96.5U (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 - +12.2U Week 5 - +9.0U Week 6 - +8.2U Week 7 - +15.7U Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch> Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +34.4U) To make it easier, 4 key points I'd highlight: -Josh Reynolds O35.5 rec yards, Logan Thomas O39.5 rec yards & Clyde Edwards-Helaire O12.5 rec yards are 2U plays, I think the line's way too low on all 3. -I'm actually considering doubling up on the +1600 TD prop for Brevin Jordan, I think it's a massive mistake to put him at +1600 after he scored a TD at +1000 and is clearly their starting TE (and not Pharaoh Brown). If somehow he's inactive, the bet voids, nothing lost. -Josh Reynolds at +650 TD is surprising after he scored last week at +700, too, but nothing like Jordan. Both TD props, if you're intrigued on, get it now if you can find it at that price, Jordan's the highest risk of being taken down. -Brandon Aiyuk & Jerry Jeudy (assuming the props come out where I think they will) are likely 2 more 2U plays. Edited December 3, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 With the possibility Cam Hayward misses the game I’ll back BAL -4.5 and add it to the card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 @Broncofan Brexin down to +900. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: @Broncofan Brexin down to +900. There’s value still because he’s the starting TE now. And usually the starting TE has been +500 on low scoring teams. But obv nowhere near the insane diff a couple of days ago (and yes, I decided to go 2U then, happy to see the line move so much now). The most likely outcome is a L; even at +500 it implies a sub 20 percent probability of hitting (which is about where I see it). But the return at +900 let alone +1600 is so much higher than the probability. That’s where profit can be had over the long run and why taking longshot TD props where value exists is how this strategy ends up profitable. Edited December 5, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 (edited) On 12/3/2021 at 11:45 AM, Broncofan said: OK not all the games have player props out, but here's what I have locked in already: ATS/ML & RACE MIA -2.5 vs. NYG (now -4.5) - I took this on Monday as soon as the line opened. I just can't believe that anyone thinks NYG is as good as MIA in a neutral field. The MIA D is clicking, and the MIA O has finally figured out how to leverage Jaylen Waddle's abilities, and use Tua in a hybrid RPO pass scheme that lets him succeed. I think this is a 7+ pt win, so I can easily back -2.5 (harder with the current spread, no-brainer with this one, but I'd still back MIA-4 if pushed). LAC @ CIN U50.5 - this is about how both teams are succeeding on O right now. CIN has gone to a much heavier run based script...and LAC, to their detriment, has abandoned almost all types of verticality to their game. What this means - fewer lightning quick drives, and more 10+ drives that do score. Add in the LAC pass D that limits big plays, and the RZ struggles both teams have encountered, along with LAC's kicking woes, I'll back U50.5 than have to figure out who wins this. I think this is far more likely a 24-21 game (24-24 OT is how I get screwed here, but willing to take the chance). IND -9.5 @ HOU (now -10) - I know, I know, dogs at home are dangerous. But IND's record belies the fact they're a very talented team, it's been Frank Reich x2 and Carson Wentz for 1 game, that have cost the Colts. Then we add in the mismatch of IND's OL vs. HOU's front 7, and man, I think this is a blowout. Last time it was 31-3, and while Tyrod Taylor is back, I just think it makes it more like 35-17. Give me Indy here. DEN +10 @ KC (now +9.5) - do I think DEN wins this? Nope. Do I think DEN plays KC harder than the talent difference suggests? Yup. This could go sideways if the DEN O can't attack the KC secondary in the 15-25 yard area (a move that teams succeeded with early, but other teams recently have gone away from). But if this is a TO neutral game, I have it more like a 6-7 pt game. And there's always the chance Mahomes makes it a +TO game for DEN. I'm not brave enough to take the ML or RACE, but a dog ATS play, sure. And FTR, as it would expedite Vic Fangio's departure as HC at end of season, I'd be fine with a DEN L but cover LOL. So that's a modest 4U risk so far on ATS/ML, no RACE props that stand out so far. PLAYER & LONGSHOT TD PROPS EARLY 1 PM Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD +120 - ATL's pass D is certainly vulnerable at 29th by DVOA, and with Gronk back, and more importantly, Ali Marpet (so takes away inside pressure) even without AB, I'll go back to the well here. I pulled this prop back last week because of Marpet's absence and IND's improving play vs. the run (with the disruption Buckner offers inside) - I see nothing of that here with ATL, so back to backing this prop. Cordarelle Patterson O38.5 receiving yards +100 - got this just as it flipped up 1 yard, happy to take it, agree with @N4L here, and CPatt gets to double up at both positions where he can get chunk plays and short safe ones. Easy call. Joe Mixon O86.5 rushing yards - I wish we had a rushing attempt prop, as I think he'd smash anything of O18.5 or less, but this is the only one, and against the 32nd rush D by DVOA, and Mixon's surge, easy call. Austin Ekeler O42.5 receiving yards - CIN is 31st in DVOA vs. RB's in the pass game. Another easy call that @N4L mentioned before. Josh Reynolds O33.5 receiving yards (now 35.5, still would do) 2U - I'm floored the # is this low. Yes, MIN's pass D is better - but that's on the pass rush. The coverage isn't. Reynolds could get this in 1-2 catches, and I'm confident he's Goff's #1 target now. Brevin Jordan +1600 TD 1U - I absolutely can't believe the prop is that high. Jordan is now the TE, and as we saw with Gronk last week, IND is weak against TE's. Tyrod loves the TE. I'm definitely going 1U to try and hit a 16U win by itself. Josh Reynolds +650 TD 1U - not as crazy as Jordan, but Reynolds is now Goff's favorite target. +650 for top target against MIN's secondary? Sign. Me. Up. LATE 4 PM Derek Carr O276.5 pass yards - WFT 30th in DVOA vs. the pass. How SEA didn't leverage this more, it's an indictment of SEA's scheme and overall OL woes combined with Russell Wilson's physical and mental struggles (can't be all physical given he did throw about 5-6 dimes this past game). This is going to leverage into at least 1, if not 2 receiving props, as well. This is one @Ray Reed & @MWil23 called out before, I'm backing it with confidence. Logan Thomas O39.5 receiving yards 2U - OMG this is way too low. Not only is LV a TE funnel pass D, but the WFT D uses the TE as both safety valve on some plays, and then seam routes once they get near the RZ. This is a 2U play, now that we see Thomas is back to being healthy. Jimmy Garoppolo O1.5 pass TD +110 - this is riskier than on the surface, being an intradivisional game. But we know that SEA gives up a ton of plays on D, and it's still a pass funnel D. Teams get caught in the trap of playing slow ball with Pete Carroll - but I just don't think it will matter here as much. As we saw with WFT, the way to score on SEA is the pass, running is much harder. I can't believe Kyle Shanahan won't see that, with Kittle & Aiyuk Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches +100 - this one is always risky if there's injury, because it will take at least 40 minutes to hit - but it's also such a safe play to bank on Diontae to get 10+ targets, and 12+ if they're behind. Much easier to bank on 7+ catches than it is to assume he'll hit mid-60's yards, though, with Big Ben (the yards prop). SNF Clyde Edwards-Helaire O12.5 receiving yards 2U - I don't know if Vegas paid attention, but KC is using the RB's a TON in the pass game as the way to adjust to the Cover-3 teams are using. DEN's already said they are using extended bracketing / shadows on Travis Kelce - which leaves the RB's as the main security blanket. Barring injury, I think CEH blasts past this, so I'm willing to 2U on this one. Albert Owuegbunam TD +650 (0.6U) - going for who Sorensen may be covering, and DEN uses a lot of 12 formation in the RZ. Not nearly as much of an opp as Jordan/Reynolds, so not nearly as much of a stake. So that's 13U in player props, and 2.6U in longshot TD props PROPS I'M WAITING ON Brandon Aiyuk O4.5 catches / receiving yards - want both. With Deebo Samuel out, he's the full-time X, and against a pass funnel D like SEA, I'm all over both. Hoping we get plus money for the catches, the yards offers insurance in case he goes off on massive chunk plays. Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches / receiving yards - yes, got burned last week, but that's because DEN went up 14-0, TeddyB got hurt, and DEN literally threw it 18x the whole game. I don't see that @KC obv. Of all the matchups DEN's WR's will have, he'll likely have the best chance to win. Willing to commit 2U to both guys, as long as the payouts are + money for the catches, for 4U more so long as the value is there. YOLO PARLEY I'll do a 7-leg parley with MIA -3 (-140) / IND -10 / LAC-CIN U51 -120 / Reynolds O35.5 rec yards / Thomas O39.5 rec yards / C-Patt O38.5 rec yards / CEH O12.5 rec yards for +7500 at 0.4U (YOLO) too. That brings me up to a total Sunday risk of 20U on the line, with 4U more if I get Aiyuk & Jeudy added in. After an amazing TNF, hoping to make Week 13 the best week so far (week 1 tough to beat at >42U lol). BOL & LFG! 2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 13 TNF: ATS 35-34; 9-14 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +24.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS). Player props - 115-117, +19.0U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U) TD - 16-46, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10, and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +53.4U profit so far Net balance: +96.5U (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 - +12.2U Week 5 - +9.0U Week 6 - +8.2U Week 7 - +15.7U Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch> Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +34.4U) I've added 3 more player props along with BAL -4.5, and got the 2+ TD props added for my 3 longshot TD plays: - Michael Pittman O63.5 rec yards +100 - It might be the Jonathan Taylor rushing show but when the Colts pass, Pittman's the guy. 2 drops and 1 slip mask the fact he was once again going for 6+ / 80+ again. The catch prop is -130, so I'll stick with yards. -Brandon Aiyuk O60.5 rec yards 2U - with Deebo Samuel out, he's the X receiver. This is an easy +80 rec yard spot, so worth the 2U play. -Jerry Jeudy O52.5 rec yards 2U - I fully expect KC to get ahead, and this forces DEN to pass. Jeudy's got the best separation ability vs. KC's CB's, and so as long as there's no injury to him or TeddyB, I project him to 5/70+. Another 2U play. I've gone with 0.4U plays for 2+ TD's on the 2 Sunday slate players I've backed (Brevin Jordan +12500 2+ TD, Josh Reynolds +7000 2+ TD), and for fun I've played 0.2U for first TD +6600 on Brevin Jordan (and I'm going a little crazy with Jordan +1600 single TD 2U), too. Obviously I've had a great start to Week 13 so hoping to build on it, and keep the momentum going and get >100U+ profit for the year. BOL! Edited December 5, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Broncofan said: I've added 3 more player props along with BAL -4.5, and got the 2+ TD props added for my 3 longshot TD plays: - Michael Pittman O63.5 rec yards +100 - It might be the Jonathan Taylor rushing show but when the Colts pass, Pittman's the guy. 2 drops and 1 slip mask the fact he was once again going for 6+ / 80+ again. The catch prop is -130, so I'll stick with yards. -Brandon Aiyuk O60.5 rec yards 2U - with Deebo Samuel out, he's the X receiver. This is an easy +80 rec yard spot, so worth the 2U play. -Jerry Jeudy O52.5 rec yards 2U - I fully expect KC to get ahead, and this forces DEN to pass. Jeudy's got the best separation ability vs. KC's CB's, and so as long as there's no injury to him or TeddyB, I project him to 5/70+. Another 2U play. I've gone with 0.4U plays for 2+ TD's on the 2 Sunday slate players I've backed (Brevin Jordan +12500 2+ TD, Josh Reynolds +7000 2+ TD), and for fun I've played 0.2U for first TD +6600 on Brevin Jordan (and I'm going a little crazy with Jordan +1600 single TD 2U), too. Obviously I've had a great start to Week 13 so hoping to build on it, and keep the momentum going and get >100U+ profit for the year. BOL! I've decided to take out Pittman, because even though the number is insane, I'd still rather back Jonathan Taylor O102.5 rush yards. Until he shows he can't hit it, it seems far more likely to back - basically playing the props like Derrick Henry 2020 (no matter how high it goes, keep playing it until there's a real matchup you don't like - and JAX run D isn't one to shy away from). To be more responsible bankroll-wise, I'll play just that end on the IND side, and not have to compete with each other; so that means pulling Pittman's rec yards prop. On the ATS/ML front, can't argue @N4L's reasoning, and the line has dropped back to SF -3 @ SEA, which makes me far more comfortable in backing. Finally I’m going to put a small 0.5U TD hedge on Chris Moore at +900. While I know Jordan is the TE this gives me the guy taking over slot duties for Amendola. Either one hits nice profit ensues with the total 2.6U invested there. Edited December 5, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Been getting hosed on DK for weeks now, but put 4 lineups in today: 1. QB: Tua | RB: Mixon | RB: Mattinson | WR: Waddle | WR: D Parker | WR: Pittman | TE: Moreau | FLEX: Di Johnson | DST: Miami 2. QB: Tua | RB: S Michel | RB: J Taylor | WR: Waddle | WR: D Parker | WR: J Jefferson | TE: B Jordan | FLEX: M Brown | DST: Miami 3. QB: Burrow | RB: E Mitchell | RB: A Gibson | WR: T Higgins | WR: M Brown | WR: Pittman | TE: Kittle | FLEX: Burkhead | DST: Miami 4. QB: Minshew | RB: J Taylor | RB: Burkhead | WR: Kupp | WR: D Smith | WR: J Reagor | TE: Moreau | FLEX: Mixon | DST: Pittsburgh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 (edited) Before I do the Sunday tally, wanted to get my SNF plays on record: Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches +140, O52.5 yards - covered before Pat Mahomes O2.5 TD's +160 - it's about the value, agree it's maybe 50-50 but we're getting paid off like it's sub 40 percent, so happy to take the value. Clyde Edwards Helaire O12.5 rec yards 2U (from before) DEN +9.5, DEN O17.5 team points +110 Albert O +700 TD (0.6U) BOL! Edited December 6, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 (edited) So tally so far: ATS/ML - 2-4 (LAC-CIN wasn't close, while the dogs barked with BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, TO's and mistakes were the tale, full credit to PIT/SEA, they earned the W). Net -2U loss so far, with DEN +10 the final L PLAYER PROPS - (Aiyuk O63.5 2U, Carr O276.5 pass yards, Mixon O86.5 rush yards & Cordarelle Pattterson O38.5 rec yards lose, but TB12 O2.5 pass TD's +120, JimmyG O1.5 pass TD's +110, Josh Reynolds O33.5 rec yards 2U, Logan Thomas O39.5 2U, Jonathan Taylor O102.5 rush yards, Austin Ekeler O42.5 rec yards and Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches all win) with a net of (SNF EDIT): +5.3U profit so far (since TB12 +120 & JimmyG +110 hit) EDIT SNF - won 3/5 player props, with CEH O12.5 yards 2U, Jeudy O52.5 rec yards both winning, while Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's and Jeudy O4.5 (bad beat, catch got called back, then 2nd last play DB stripped him as he went to ground for incompletion). So that's 5.3U on player props, which helps with the goose egg on the TD props and 2-4 ATS plays. LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 0-4, -4.1U, with Albert O +700 (0.6U) waiting (EDIT: Whiffed, not really close) So that leaves me pretty square at -0.2U (EDIT post SNF - -0.8U loss) for Sunday's salte before the SNF & MNF matches, but of course with the TNF bonanza of +34.4U, so still doing well. Let's hope for a nice SNF/MNF to get past the 100U mark for 2021! 2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 13 NOT INCLUDING SNF/MNF: ATS 37-38; 9-14 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +22.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS). Player props - 127-124 +24.3U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U) TD - 16-49, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10, and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +49.3U profit so far Net balance: +95.7U (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 - +12.2U Week 5 - +9.0U Week 6 - +8.2U Week 7 - +15.7U Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch> Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +33.8U) Edited December 6, 2021 by Broncofan UPDATED SNF results, net -0.6U loss, which then makes Sunday -0.8U total, but a nice 33.8U net gain for Week 13 not counting MNF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 11:58 PM, N4L said: I know it doesnt count bc I didnt post it in the thread, but I hit some props tonight Count for what? Lol. A hits a hit, good stuff. On 12/2/2021 at 11:58 PM, N4L said: It wont matter. The 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball. 😬 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Pretty good day for me. Eli Mitchell O8.5 receiving 2U ✅ Mattison O80.5 rushing 2U ✅ Ekeler O40.5 receiving 1U ✅ Bridgewater O21.5 completions 1U ✅ JTaylor O16.5 receiving 1U ❌ (another week, another regrettable choice of taking a RBs receiving over rushing line; first game all year JT hasn’t seen a target after seeing 16 over the last 3 weeks 🤡) I had planned on playing the Overs for Logan Thomas & Gronk as well but just forgot. Bummer because both guys hit. Dolphins+Eagles+Rams ML Parlay ✅ Dolphins -4 ✅ Vikings+49ers ML Parlay ❌ 49ers -2.5 (live bet after game was tied 7-7) ❌ WFT/Raiders U5.5 3Q points (live bet when Raiders received punt at the 9 yard line with 8 minutes remaining, both offenses were grinding clock and playing conservatively, but it literally came down to the last play of the quarter, naturally.) ✅ Chiefs -2.5 / U52.5 points Teaser ✅ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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