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BStanRamFan

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30mph forecasted winds in Buffalo tomorrow night have all of the passing and receiving lines awfully suppressed. 

That said, Devin Singletary O38.5 rushing looks insanely low. Moss should be a healthy scratch again and Breida isn’t taking THAT much work away. I’d expect Singletary to see somewhere around 12-15 carries, which means he can average less than 4 ypc to hit this number. For reference, Singletary saw 15 carries for 43 yards against the #1 run defense in the NFL last game and now faces a defense that gave up 100+ yards to 2 Titans RBs in their last game. I’ll probably wait for official ruling on Moss, but this smells like a 2U play if he’s out. 

I also like Josh Allen O36.5 rushing. Same reasons as above, but Allen tends to utilize his legs more in the Bills most important games. I’d expect double digit attempts from him considering the weather. 

Thoughts? 

Edited by SaveOurSonics
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16 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Eli Mitchell O8.5 receiving 2U

Mattison O80.5 rushing 2U

Ekeler O40.5 receiving 1U

Bridgewater O21.5 completions 1U

I’ll try to be better about posting in thread on what I’m considering. Figured I’d add my thought process to these. 

I took the Ekeler play from that tweet N4L shared. I also noticed the Seahawks were amongst the league leaders in RB receptions surrendered from that same tweet, saw a guy in Mitchell who saw 6 targets the week before, and knew Deebo was out. I went yards over receptions because he could hit the yards on a single play. Naturally, he had 2 catches for 7 yards halfway through the 4Q when he appeared to suffer a concussion. I thought this prop was dead in the water but he came back in to record an 11 yard reception on one of the 9ers last drives. Frankly, he should’ve hit this on his very first catch but Bobby Wagner made a great play to get around a 1v1 blocker. 

No special metrics or tweets for the Mattison play. Dude is a virtual lock to go over 80 when Dalvin is out and facing a bad Lions run defense. I loved this play because I saw it hitting almost regardless of game script, which is exactly what happened. 

The Bridgewater play was admittedly a force. My buddy texted me “dude you’re hot on the props today, what’s your favorite prop for SNF?”. I was originally planning on replying with Javonte O28.5 receiving (would’ve been much safer) but missing JT’s receiving prop left me skittish. I ended up telling my friend that Bridgewater had hit O21.5 completions in the Broncos last 4 losses, so if you’re expecting the Chiefs to win, you’re expecting Teddy to have to throw it. I didn’t think it would take 40 attempts to barely hit, but good process brought good results. 

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8 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

30mph forecasted winds in Buffalo tomorrow night have all of the passing and receiving lines awfully suppressed. 

That said, Devin Singletary O38.5 rushing looks insanely low. Moss should be a healthy scratch again and Breida isn’t taking THAT much work away. I’d expect Singletary to see somewhere around 12-15 carries, which means he can average less than 4 ypc to hit this number. For reference, Singletary saw 15 carries for 43 yards against the #1 run defense in the NFL last game and now faces a defense that gave up 100+ yards to 2 Titans RBs in their last game. I’ll probably wait for official ruling on Moss, but this smells like a 2U play if he’s out. 

I also like Josh Allen O36.5 rushing. Same reasons as above, but Allen tends to utilize his legs more in the Bills most important games. I’d expect double digit attempts from him considering the weather. 

Thoughts? 

I like the Allen line.  Probably only 1U though.     Matt Brieda has made the Singletary prop a little scarier.   Want to know if Moss plays for sure.  
 

The other 2U and maybe 4U play is Cole Beasley o3.5 catches, opened at +150.   Now +140.    NE only has 1 shutdown CB now and short area will be the focus - so that’s Beasley.    With Sanders / Knox, it’s not like the NE will prioritize him the same way they could with 2 shutdown CB’s and fewer threats (Beasley 2020 #’s vs. NE are likely why the odds are so heavily on under).    I think this is a 50+ percent play but being weighed like a 40 percent probability.  

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I thought Allen's rushing line seemed low, so I did a little digging. Just something I thought was worth sharing.. Allen hit the under on that number in both games against the Patriots last year. I still like the bet, but I was hoping last years numbers would support it more. 

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1 hour ago, braylon said:

I thought Allen's rushing line seemed low, so I did a little digging. Just something I thought was worth sharing.. Allen hit the under on that number in both games against the Patriots last year. I still like the bet, but I was hoping last years numbers would support it more. 

The weather likely increases the odds today though.  Short pass and run props seem best tonight 

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5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I like the Allen line.  Probably only 1U though.     Matt Brieda has made the Singletary prop a little scarier.   Want to know if Moss plays for sure.  
 

The other 2U and maybe 4U play is Cole Beasley o3.5 catches, opened at +150.   Now +140.    NE only has 1 shutdown CB now and short area will be the focus - so that’s Beasley.    With Sanders / Knox, it’s not like the NE will prioritize him the same way they could with 2 shutdown CB’s and fewer threats (Beasley 2020 #’s vs. NE are likely why the odds are so heavily on under).    I think this is a 50+ percent play but being weighed like a 40 percent probability.  

So my final MNF card:

Cole Beasley O3.5 catches +150 (now +120) 4U - yes, those winds are going to be nasty.  But that also means short throws.   NE is going to try to take out Stefon Diggs first, and they have to worry about Dawson Knox and Manny Sanders.  I think it's a 50-50 prop, but it's being paid out as 40 percent probability.  Worth extra units.

Gabriel Davis O12.5 rec yards - because it's more likely to be a run heavy game, Davis is used more as a blocking WR, and then gets 3+ targets a game.  He's received over 35 percent of snaps 4 of last 5 games, and so it only takes 1 play to get over. 

Gabriel Davis +650 TD / +9000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U ) - could be another Dawson Knox RZ game, but if it's not him, with extra attention to Davis, I'm happy to take a stab on their other big body.   

No FG in game +2000 (now +1400) 0.2U - this is just a fun flier to round my 6U stake.    The winds are so bad, the odds of a no FG night seem much higher 5 percent (and why the odds are already moving to likely be +1000 by gametime).

That's 6U on the line, with a 33.8U profit this week, can freeroll a little, but also think Beasley / Davis offer the chances to get past the 100U+ profit line.  BOL!

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Kicking myself now that I see virtually everyone’s rushing line has increased by 5 yards overnight. 

I just placed 2 bets and considering others. 

Patriots U1.5 FGs - May be a risky one with how good Folk has been, but I just can’t imagine more than 2 opportunities to kick in this game, and I’m down to bank on him missing 1. 

Emmanuel Sanders U30.5 receiving - He’s hit the under in his last 3 games, where he’s seen 10 total targets, with all 3 coming in favorable matchups. He’s been getting phased out in favor of Knox and, as the teams primary deep threat, I don’t see a lot of opportunities for him in a game that should feature Diggs/Knox/Beasley in the short passing game and more Gabriel Davis as a blocker. 
 

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

So my final MNF card:

Cole Beasley O3.5 catches +150 (now +120) 4U - yes, those winds are going to be nasty.  But that also means short throws.   NE is going to try to take out Stefon Diggs first, and they have to worry about Dawson Knox and Manny Sanders.  I think it's a 50-50 prop, but it's being paid out as 40 percent probability.  Worth extra units.

Gabriel Davis O12.5 rec yards - because it's more likely to be a run heavy game, Davis is used more as a blocking WR, and then gets 3+ targets a game.  He's received over 35 percent of snaps 4 of last 5 games, and so it only takes 1 play to get over. 

Gabriel Davis +650 TD / +9000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U ) - could be another Dawson Knox RZ game, but if it's not him, with extra attention to Davis, I'm happy to take a stab on their other big body.   

No FG in game +2000 (now +1400) 0.2U - this is just a fun flier to round my 6U stake.    The winds are so bad, the odds of a no FG night seem much higher 5 percent (and why the odds are already moving to likely be +1000 by gametime).

That's 6U on the line, with a 33.8U profit this week, can freeroll a little, but also think Beasley / Davis offer the chances to get past the 100U+ profit line.  BOL!

One more addition - Josh Allen O32.5 pass attempts.  I don't think he'll be that productive, but this is just about getting 33 chances to pass the ball.

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7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So my final MNF card:

Cole Beasley O3.5 catches +150 (now +120) 4U - yes, those winds are going to be nasty.  But that also means short throws.   NE is going to try to take out Stefon Diggs first, and they have to worry about Dawson Knox and Manny Sanders.  I think it's a 50-50 prop, but it's being paid out as 40 percent probability.  Worth extra units.

Gabriel Davis O12.5 rec yards - because it's more likely to be a run heavy game, Davis is used more as a blocking WR, and then gets 3+ targets a game.  He's received over 35 percent of snaps 4 of last 5 games, and so it only takes 1 play to get over. 

Gabriel Davis +650 TD / +9000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U ) - could be another Dawson Knox RZ game, but if it's not him, with extra attention to Davis, I'm happy to take a stab on their other big body.   

No FG in game +2000 (now +1400) 0.2U - this is just a fun flier to round my 6U stake.    The winds are so bad, the odds of a no FG night seem much higher 5 percent (and why the odds are already moving to likely be +1000 by gametime).

That's 6U on the line, with a 33.8U profit this week, can freeroll a little, but also think Beasley / Davis offer the chances to get past the 100U+ profit line.  BOL!

Well, I'm now 5-2 on high-stakes prime time plays - the Pats just played man all night, not much room for Beasley, just a bad call.  But with Davis hitting his yardage and his +650 0.6U play, it basically ends up as a slight loss of -0.5U for the night (story of the Sun-Mon slate).   With an amazing TNF, it's still a great weekend, so look to keep it going for Week 14!

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 13 NOT INCLUDING SNF/MNF:

ATS 37-38; 9-14 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 128-125 +20.3U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 17-49, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +53.0U profit so far 

Net balance:  +95.2U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +33.1U)

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