Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

21 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Kicking myself now that I see virtually everyone’s rushing line has increased by 5 yards overnight. 

I just placed 2 bets and considering others. 

Patriots U1.5 FGs - May be a risky one with how good Folk has been, but I just can’t imagine more than 2 opportunities to kick in this game, and I’m down to bank on him missing 1. 

Emmanuel Sanders U30.5 receiving - He’s hit the under in his last 3 games, where he’s seen 10 total targets, with all 3 coming in favorable matchups. He’s been getting phased out in favor of Knox and, as the teams primary deep threat, I don’t see a lot of opportunities for him in a game that should feature Diggs/Knox/Beasley in the short passing game and more Gabriel Davis as a blocker. 
 

Good process, bad results on the Patriots FG play. Folk did only see 2 FG attempts, but managed to hit both. Don't regret the bet. 

Sanders hit fairly easily. You could've made money last night betting the Under on virtually any receiver though. 

I also live bet 2U U42 total points after the Damien Harris TD run that thankfully made this a +1.5U night. One fluky play brought the total to a spot that I was comfortable slamming it with how much clock was getting killed by the ground game.

[Broncofan]

OK 4 initial leans for Week 14 games:

PIT ML +150 over MIN, RACE to 20/25 +200 / +360 - this is about the MIN D just falling apart when it matters most, and losing WR Adam Thielen making the MIN O far more predictable without him and Dalvin Cook.      

BAL ML +120, RACE to 20/25/30 - +160 / +280 / +500 - this is about whether CLE can take advantage of the BAL secondary injuries, and whether the D can force Lamar into 4 INT's again.  I don't see either, and that's why I'd have BAL as a healthy 3-4 pt favorite in a TO-neutral game.   Give me plus money like that....and well, I can see the value.

BUF-TAM U52.5 - I don't think ppl appreciate that TAM's D is back in a lot better shape with their top 3 CB's all back, and I expect Devin White & Vita Vea to finally be healthy.    On the flip side, it hurts to lose Tredavious White, but BUF's pass D is legit, and so I expect TAM to use the run game and ball control.   With that type of gamescript, I think a 27-20 game is more likely, if not 24-20.   So I'll go under here.   

LV +10 vs. KC (now +9.5) - KC's win over D and ATS cover is very deceiving - DEN literally had no QB play.  LV disappointed a few weeks ago, but that was in the wake of losing Ruggs and incorporating Desean Jackson.  I don't think LV wins, but I also am comfortable with a 4-7 pt loss as the most likely outcome, so I'm happy to back the Raiders as ATS dogs.

Obviously have more props & ATS calls, but I think the line may move in the other direction on these plays, and better to lock in now.

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Diontae Johnson O80.5 receiving. Why shouldn’t this hit? Minnesota has been awful against the pass (league worst 8.6ypa last 3 games) and the Steelers are showing signs of opening up the offense after an effective 2nd half against Baltimore. 

[N4L]

Ladies and gentleman - its Travis Kelce week

Over catches, over yards, anytime TD

[SaveOurSonics]

Good stuff N4L. Would love for some of us to mine out the best Twitter accounts for posting team data like this. I typically just use teamrankings.com but you and BF have found good material via Twitter. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Starting to love the Steelers team total O20.5 points. I haven't locked it in yet, but it feels inevitable as I do more homework on the matchup. They just put up 20 against a far stingier Baltimore defense after having only scored 3 points in the 1H. As mentioned, the Vikings are by far the worst pass defense in the league recently and are bottom 5 in rush ypg. The Steelers offense shouldn't struggle to do what they want to do tonight. Meanwhile, I could see some growing pains for the Minnesota offense without Theilen that could lead to solid field position for Pittsburgh. 

I did lock in a PIT+9.5 O38.5 teaser fwiw. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

I already posted that I'm on PIT ML +150 RACE to 20/25 +200 / +360, but I have 2 more player props and 3 very small TD props (no Lil' Jordan Humphrey level confidence lol):

PIT O20.5 points - as I'm already taking the RACE to 20 & 25 (LOL), can't argue the reasoning by @SaveOurSonics

Najee Harris O70.5 rush yards - this one's simple.  MIN is 30th in rush DVOA, and if I think PIT is winning, I also think Harris is getting leaned on.   

Ray Ray McCloud O12.5 rec yards 2U - this reflects 2 points - the MIN secondary vs. WR3's isn't good at all, they average 6+ targets a game, and 50+ yards allowed.   Then you add in that Chase Claypool is a little dinged up, and MIN is also top 10 in DVOA vs. TE & RB's, and that screams a 5-6+ target night for McCloud, and an easy play to hit O12.5 rec yards. 

Ray Ray McCloud +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U) - this is all about the value and the target opps, vs. the payouts.  

Tyler Conklin +250 TD / +2000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U) - on the flip side, MIN losing Adam Thielen & Dalvin Cook severely limited, and that spells more Conklin.  Sadly his catch/yard props aren't great, so I will instead look to TD props.   

Chris Herndon +1600 TD 0.4U - he may not even see 15 snaps.  But the Vikes love to go 2TE inside the 10, and with no Thielen, this opens up more targets.  The thing is, PIT will focus on JJ, this is just insurance in case Conklin doesn't hit (much like Brevin Jordan was insurance 2 weeks ago and hit at +1000 over the +500 presumed starter <who wasn't lol>).

 

This puts 8U at risk, so that's enough for now.  BOL!

Edited December 9, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

PIT O20.5 points - as I'm already taking the RACE to 20 & 25 (LOL), can't argue the reasoning

I still haven't pulled the trigger here. The last time I banked on the Steelers offense performing was a Thursday night game in Cincinnati against a hapless Jeff Driskel-led Bengals team. The Steelers came out as flat as I've ever seen an offense come out (and I'm a Seahawks fan) and lost me some good money. They're just so damn inconsistent and I've already got the total Over in that teaser. Emotions aside, since Week 1 the Steelers have scored over 20 points in regulation in only 3 of 11 games. What keeps me coming back to it is that it's in a dome against a statistically bad defense a week after sources indicate the team wants to start throwing the ball more in light of their 2H comeback vBaltimore. I might still play before kickoff. 
 

33 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Najee Harris O70.5 rush yards - this one's simple.  MIN is 30th in rush DVOA, and if I think PIT is winning, I also think Harris is getting leaned on.

 Something tells me this will be the prop that hits easily and I ask myself why I didn't play it. 
 

34 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Ray Ray McCloud O12.5 rec yards 2U - this reflects 2 points - the MIN secondary vs. WR3's isn't good at all, they average 6+ targets a game, and 50+ yards allowed.   Then you add in that Chase Claypool is a little dinged up, and MIN is also top 10 in DVOA vs. TE & RB's, and that screams a 5-6+ target night for McCloud, and an easy play to hit O12.5 rec yards. 

I like the rationale here. Also feels like a bit of insurance on my Diontae Johnson pick. I'm unfortunately getting 14.5 but I'll tail anyways with 1U. 

[SaveOurSonics]

I'll say this about Najee Harris props tonight (whether yards or carries). 

 

Najee has not eclipsed 62 rush yards in a single Steelers loss this year. Meanwhile, he's hit O72 rush yards (current line) in 3 of their 6 wins. Harris' line is currently juiced at -115. 

That is to say, if you think Najee hits the Over tonight, you must also statistically agree with the notion that the Steelers win outright tonight. 

If that's the case, your dollar is far better spent on the Steelers ML (+163) than it is Najee Harris rushing Over (-115). Not just because the juice, but because Najee is also only 50% on the Over in games the Steelers win, whereas the Steelers have lost 100% of the games where Najee does not hit the Over. 

 

Food for thought for those considering plays tonight. 

[agarcia34]

Jefferson under 93.5 rec yards. To high and not enough help on the other side to help prevent the Steelers from doubling and bracketing him. 
 

Harris over 72.5 rushing yards getting it late so not getting the best number but Harris should have a monster game 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I already posted that I'm on PIT ML +150 RACE to 20/25 +200 / +360, but I have 2 more player props and 3 very small TD props (no Lil' Jordan Humphrey level confidence lol):

PIT O20.5 points - as I'm already taking the RACE to 20 & 25 (LOL), can't argue the reasoning by @SaveOurSonics

Najee Harris O70.5 rush yards - this one's simple.  MIN is 30th in rush DVOA, and if I think PIT is winning, I also think Harris is getting leaned on.   

Ray Ray McCloud O12.5 rec yards 2U - this reflects 2 points - the MIN secondary vs. WR3's isn't good at all, they average 6+ targets a game, and 50+ yards allowed.   Then you add in that Chase Claypool is a little dinged up, and MIN is also top 10 in DVOA vs. TE & RB's, and that screams a 5-6+ target night for McCloud, and an easy play to hit O12.5 rec yards. 

Ray Ray McCloud +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U) - this is all about the value and the target opps, vs. the payouts.  

Tyler Conklin +250 TD / +2000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U) - on the flip side, MIN losing Adam Thielen & Dalvin Cook severely limited, and that spells more Conklin.  Sadly his catch/yard props aren't great, so I will instead look to TD props.   

Chris Herndon +1600 TD 0.4U - he may not even see 15 snaps.  But the Vikes love to go 2TE inside the 10, and with no Thielen, this opens up more targets.  The thing is, PIT will focus on JJ, this is just insurance in case Conklin doesn't hit (much like Brevin Jordan was insurance 2 weeks ago and hit at +1000 over the +500 presumed starter <who wasn't lol>).

 

This puts 8U at risk, so that's enough for now.  BOL!

Adding KJ Osborn o3.5 catches +100 finally came up.   No Thielen then Osborn gets his share. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Okay I'm gonna cap myself for the night. Here are my official plays for anyone who cares: 

 

Diontae O80.5 receiving 

PIT+9 / O38.5 teaser

PIT+3.5 (using the Najee logic, I settled on this) 

Osborn O3.5 receptions

All just 1U.

Edited December 9, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[N4L]

Following @SaveOurSonics with dionte but Im simply going to take the over 6.5 catches rather than yards because I think the steelers will want to get the ball out of Bens hands quickly

Justin Jefferson over 92 yards because I like to party and hes on an absolute tear. The key to this one will be giving Kirk enough time for JJeff to uncover. Steelers may try and bracket him all night, but JJeff gets his

Kirk over 1.5 touchdown passes because he has hit 2 TDs like clockwork the last 5 weeks, and hes only had less than 2 TDs in three games this year

 

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I already posted that I'm on PIT ML +150 RACE to 20/25 +200 / +360, but I have 2 more player props and 3 very small TD props (no Lil' Jordan Humphrey level confidence lol):

PIT O20.5 points - as I'm already taking the RACE to 20 & 25 (LOL), can't argue the reasoning by @SaveOurSonics

Najee Harris O70.5 rush yards - this one's simple.  MIN is 30th in rush DVOA, and if I think PIT is winning, I also think Harris is getting leaned on.   

Ray Ray McCloud O12.5 rec yards 2U - this reflects 2 points - the MIN secondary vs. WR3's isn't good at all, they average 6+ targets a game, and 50+ yards allowed.   Then you add in that Chase Claypool is a little dinged up, and MIN is also top 10 in DVOA vs. TE & RB's, and that screams a 5-6+ target night for McCloud, and an easy play to hit O12.5 rec yards. 

Ray Ray McCloud +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U) - this is all about the value and the target opps, vs. the payouts.  

Tyler Conklin +250 TD / +2000 2+ (0.6U / 0.2U) - on the flip side, MIN losing Adam Thielen & Dalvin Cook severely limited, and that spells more Conklin.  Sadly his catch/yard props aren't great, so I will instead look to TD props.   

Chris Herndon +1600 TD 0.4U - he may not even see 15 snaps.  But the Vikes love to go 2TE inside the 10, and with no Thielen, this opens up more targets.  The thing is, PIT will focus on JJ, this is just insurance in case Conklin doesn't hit (much like Brevin Jordan was insurance 2 weeks ago and hit at +1000 over the +500 presumed starter <who wasn't lol>).

 

This puts 8U at risk, so that's enough for now.  BOL!

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Adding KJ Osborn o3.5 catches +100 finally came up.   No Thielen then Osborn gets his share. 

So ATS & RACE both go 0-2, but MIN O20.5 hits, so it's a net -1.0U for ATS/ML & RACE.

The 2U play for Ray Ray Mcloud hits early (O14.5 hits later for those tailing later on too lol), and Najee Harris O70.5 yards hits nicely, while KJ Osborn O3.5 catches misses with bad luck (4th catch taken away by penalty, after 2 missed targets after his 3rd catch before).    Still, it's a +2.0U profit.  

The TD props go 0-3, but with smaller stakes tonight, it's a -2.0U loss.   So tonight is a -1.0U loss overall, but honestly could have been far, far worse at halftime.

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 14 TNF:

ATS 37-30; 9-15 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 130-126, +22.3U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 17-52, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +51.0U profit so far 

Net balance:  +94.2U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (not including MNF) - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +33.1U, Week 14 - -1.0U )

[NYRaider]

On 12/7/2021 at 1:40 PM, Broncofan said:

LV +10 vs. KC (now +9.5) - KC's win over D and ATS cover is very deceiving - DEN literally had no QB play.  LV disappointed a few weeks ago, but that was in the wake of losing Ruggs and incorporating Desean Jackson.  I don't think LV wins, but I also am comfortable with a 4-7 pt loss as the most likely outcome, so I'm happy to back the Raiders as ATS dogs.

I'm actually going to take the Chiefs -9.5 this week. 4/6 of the Raiders losses have been by 10+ with the only exceptions being the Giants/WFT games. Carr has also been absolutely terrible playing in Arrowhead throughout his career. The team seems to be checked out at this point and not having Waller or Drake will be huge losses for us this week. 

Carr's one good performance in KC came last season but in his other 6 games playing at Arrowhead he has averaged like 190 passing yards and has 4 TD/7 INT. In those games our offense averaged 11.6 ppg and our average margin of defeat has been 17.6 points.