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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Okay I'm gonna cap myself for the night. Here are my official plays for anyone who cares: 

 

Diontae O80.5 receiving 

PIT+9 / O38.5 teaser

PIT+3.5 (using the Najee logic, I settled on this) 

Osborn O3.5 receptions


All just 1U.

1 for 4. A night of "what ifs" for me. 

Diontae misses by 4 yards as the Steelers suddenly treated Claypool as their alpha in the 4Q. 

The Teaser was fortunate enough to hit. 

PIT+3.5 just misses on the dropped TD by Freiermuth. Bummer. 

Osborn JUST misses with 3 separate opportunities to hit 4 catches. The first was a catch but called back on holding. The second was a slant to him where he stumbled out of his break for the INT. And then he received the final target for the Vikings on an inaccurate pass by Cousins. 


Felt like there was a great opportunity late in that game to at least go 50% last night, but none of the 3 L's converted. That's to be expected when the game script goes so far left on you. On to the next one. 

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, N4L said:

Following @SaveOurSonics with dionte but Im simply going to take the over 6.5 catches rather than yards because I think the steelers will want to get the ball out of Bens hands quickly

Justin Jefferson over 92 yards because I like to party and hes on an absolute tear. The key to this one will be giving Kirk enough time for JJeff to uncover. Steelers may try and bracket him all night, but JJeff gets his

Kirk over 1.5 touchdown passes because he has hit 2 TDs like clockwork the last 5 weeks, and hes only had less than 2 TDs in three games this year

 

Unbelievable 

Dionte caught 7 passes but two of them were on 2point conversions and dont count

Jefferson had about 4 plays that were going to go for 30+ yards that he couldnt connect with Kirk. 

Wow. Tough losses there. 

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, N4L said:

Following @SaveOurSonics with dionte but Im simply going to take the over 6.5 catches rather than yards because I think the steelers will want to get the ball out of Bens hands quickly

Claypool is getting all the pub for his antics, but there was a point in that game where Ben seemed to get very frustrated with the way Diontae was running his routes and fighting for the ball. I didn't notice the Vikings doing anything special on Diontae last night (Harrison would shade over from time to time, but not dedicated shadow style) and I would've assumed he had the better matchup than Claypool v Peterson. Unfortunate neither of us hit on this, but I think Diontae's play influenced it some. 

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I'll say this about Najee Harris props tonight (whether yards or carries). 

 

Najee has not eclipsed 62 rush yards in a single Steelers loss this year. Meanwhile, he's hit O72 rush yards (current line) in 3 of their 6 wins. Harris' line is currently juiced at -115. 

That is to say, if you think Najee hits the Over tonight, you must also statistically agree with the notion that the Steelers win outright tonight. 

If that's the case, your dollar is far better spent on the Steelers ML (+163) than it is Najee Harris rushing Over (-115). Not just because the juice, but because Najee is also only 50% on the Over in games the Steelers win, whereas the Steelers have lost 100% of the games where Najee does not hit the Over. 

 

Food for thought for those considering plays tonight. 

And then this galaxy braining lost me some money lol. 

Was going to hit either Steelers O20.5 points or Najee O18.5 carries but decided to play Steelers +3.5 due to my findings in this post. Naturally it's the first game all year where Najee runs for more than 18 carries and 70 yards in a Steelers loss 😂

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Claypool is getting all the pub for his antics, but there was a point in that game where Ben seemed to get very frustrated with the way Diontae was running his routes and fighting for the ball. I didn't notice the Vikings doing anything special on Diontae last night (Harrison would shade over from time to time, but not dedicated shadow style) and I would've assumed he had the better matchup than Claypool v Peterson. Unfortunate neither of us hit on this, but I think Diontae's play influenced it some. 

I noticed the same thing after the INT where Dionte kind of stopped running his route and didnt fight for the ball. 

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Games I'm considering this weekend: 

• Bengals (ML) vs 49ers

• Ravens (ML) at Browns

• Chiefs (-9.5) vs Raiders

• Bills (ML) at Buccaneers 

• Saints (-5.5) at Jets 

Careful taking the Bengals. We are currently feeling the effects of the injury bug. Burrow’s throwing pinky was dinged last week, and it seemed to affect him. The offensive line was significantly worse in pass pro and run blocking without Trey Hopkins and Riley Reiff. And lastly Logan Wilson, who was having a nice breakout year, is out long term with injury. 

Beating the Niners at full strength is a tough ask. Beating them with significant injuries is another animal. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Damn had my post wiped out just as I was finishing, so here's my card: 

ATS/ML & RACE (0.5U for RACE's)

EARLY

LV team total over 17.5 +100 @ KC - they're a 10 pt dog, but the OU is now 49.0 and KC's team total is 29.5.   The LV team total should be 2 pts higher.   

BAL ML +150 (now +135), RACE to 20/25/EDIT SAT LATE PM - added RACE To 30 (+200 / +350 / +550) @ CLE - explained it earlier, but basically don't see Lamar Jackson throwing 4 more INT's.  Even worse, CLE is missing more guys on O, and thus can't take advantage of BAL's secondary problems.  TBH, tempted to take a 3rd RACE to 35 at +550, will consider for now (EDIT:  I took it).

LATE

DEN -10 (now -11) vs. DET - I was initially on DET +10, but so many injuries to their best O players, and they were missing their 2 top pass rushers, and now word that they've lost 2 more CB's, their starting ILB and their starting C.   Nothing but respect for DET, but this isn't a fair fight. 

EDIT LATE SAT PM - SF -1.5 @ CIN - CIN's OL starters are back, but so is Deebo Samuel.   While he may just be a decoy, having him back allows the run game and other pass game weapons to play better matchups.   This is needed with CIN's D - they throttle O's that focus on just 1-2 guys.   CIN's OL is still a problem vs. SF's pass rush, and Joe Mixon being dinged up really takes away the potential problems with SF's LB corps being down key guys.   I won't take RACE's since SF is a favorite.


TOTAL - 5.5U

 

PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Dak Prescott O2.5 pass TD's +180 - this isn't a 50-50 prop, but the payout is calling this close to a 35 percent play.  I see it as more around 45 percent, so have to take a shot, esp with WFT's pass funnel D and him having all 3 top WR's back.

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 pass TD's +210 -  I put this as no better than 40 percent to hit, even against the TEN pass D.   But the payout is for a 30 percent play.   

Taysom Hill O56.5 rush yards 2U - NYJ has the worst run D by DVOA.   Kamara & Hill should feast in the run game.  I expect Kamara to get 15 rushes, and 6+ catches, but I also expect Hill to get 12+ runs himself, and he should blow through that rush total to a tune of 70+ yards. 

Marquise Brown O4.5 catches +110 - with Watkins and Bateman back, and BAL manufacturing touches for Brown with bubble screens.   I’ll go here instead of the yard totals facing another pass funnel D.  

Ceedee Lamb O5.5 catches +110 2U - Lamb only has failed to hit 6+ catches / 80+ yards when he's been hurt, or when Cedrick Wilson has to play a lot of slot WR snaps.   With Gallup & Cooper back, Lamb is set to play a TON of slot..again.   WFT's pass funnel D only makes this easier to take 2U. 

Austin Hooper O3.5 catches +150 4U - Njoku & Bryant are out.   The TE gets a ton of work.  Tempted to hit this for 4U TBH (it’s already +130)

Laquon Treadwell O32.5 rec yards - This is the one that makes me nervous because it's Laquon Treadwell (LOL).   But he's the main target vs. a pass funnel D / friendly script game.   Gotta take a stab here at that yardage 

Laquon Treadwell +650 TD / +7000 2+ (0.8U/0.3U) - if he burns me with a dropped TD, he burns me.  He's so likely to get at least 2+ targets in the RZ as top receiver though 

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Denzel Mims +700 TD / +8000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - this is all about 

LATE

Josh Allen O2.5 pass TD's +170 - TAM's missing 2 of their top safeties, and while they get their top 3 CB's back, they're still most vulnerable here.    Gotta take a shot at those odds

Cole Beasley O4.5 catches +100 - yes I got burned on MNF as NE stuck to man coverage.   TAM has the 2nd highest use of zone coverage on passing downs.  

Gabriel Davis TD +600 / +7000 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) - with a pass funnel D, going to the WR matchup in the RZ that BUF looks for at least 2x a game 

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Saquon Barkley O56.5 rush yards - LAC's run D is improving, but that's a total that's way too low, even with NYG's meh OL.   

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Josh Palmer +350 / +3000 (0.6U/0.3U) - Mike Williams will get all the attention, and NYG's D is top 10 vs. #1 outside WR's, but #24 against the #2 WR, and #4 vs. RB's so I'm going with longshot other targets, specifically with Palmer, who gets almost 14 percent target share per snap when he's on the field (as opposed to just over 8 for Jared Guyton).    This also leads me to...

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Donald Parham +400 / +3500 (0.4U / 0.2U) - I'm disappointed we aren't getting +500 or better, but the bookies have wised up that he's still a part of their RZ plans.    Still, with Ekeler accounted for and no Keenan Allen, and the G-men very good at taking away the boundary #1 WR, that's going to have me take 2 shots on LAC TD's.

Sadly, Justin Herbert's prop still remains at O1.5 TD's, and it's -160, so no value there. 

TOTAL - 19U so far

 

PENDING PROPS (NOT OUT YET)

Justin Herbert TD props if Mike Williams plays - with Keenan Allen out, and NYG's pass D being decent, this will likely be close to even at O1.5 or major plus money at O2.5.  I'll take a stab on either as long as Williams plays. UPDATE SAT PM - O1.5 at -160.  Ugh, pass.  

Josh Palmer catch/yard props (if O3.5/O39.5 yards or less), TD props - the guy who will get more snaps if Allen is out, as long as the props aren't massively inflated, I'll go here.  So I really hope Mike Williams does play. - UPDATE SAT PM: STILL PENDING - would easily add yards/catches if it was O2.5 at plus money, or O34.5 yards or less.

Donald Parham TD props if +500 or better - same idea if Williams plays, Jared Cook still gets a ton of snaps, but Parham still gets RZ looks.   - ADDED SAT PM AT +400

Javonte Wiliams rush yard props O59.5 or better - hoping MG3 will play, and keep the rush totals down.  If MG3 plays, the props stay low, but I think MG3 isn't taking 50+ percent of the snaps and rushes like we saw before.   There's also the blowout potential for being really run heavy, so I'm crossing my fingers MG3 plays, and keept the totals low enough to really hammer. - ADDED SAT PM AT O67.5 rush yards, so only 1U play.

 

I'll also place a 0.5U parley on BAL ML / Taysom O56.5 rush yards / Hooper O3.5 recs / Treadwell O32.5 rec yards / Lamb O5.5 catches / Beasley O4.5 catches props for +7000 (so if all the early game props hit, I can hedge Beasley U4.5 catches too). 

 

So that puts me at 25U in play (and could add 1-2U more if Josh Palmer catch/yardage props come out later tomorrow, depending on how the early slate is going).   BOL!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 14 TNF:

ATS 38-39; 9-15 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 130-126, +22.3U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 17-52, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.0U profit so far 

Net balance:  +94.2U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +33.1U, Week 14 - -1.0U )

Edited by Broncofan
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