Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

@Broncofan I think you'll like this player prop. Smells right up your alley. 

 

Taysom Hill O1.5 passing TDs +205

Pass funnel Bucs defense means Kamara & Taysom shouldn't be nearly as effective as they were last week on the ground against the Jets. The +205 juice is based far too much on public perception of Taysom's throwing ability and not enough on facts. 

Taysom Hill has reached 2 passing TDs in each start where the Saints lose or win by 1 possession. They are currently 11-point dogs on SNF. Taysom Hill has reached 2 passing TDs in 3 of his 5 starts over the last 2 years. The 2 games he didn't reach were easy wins over the Jets (30-9) and Falcons (24-9) where the Saints found great success running the ball. The Buccaneers rank 28th in the league (or 5th worst) in Pass TD%. They are 32nd in the league (or dead last) in Pass TD% at home. 

Small sample size, but +205 feels awfully generous. I'd love to hear the opinion of someone who watched last week's Saints game before locking this in. How was Taysom's accuracy? I can see he completed over 70% of his passes but that might be artificial. 

My ONLY concern is that Hill's finger isn't likely to be still at full strength for 2+ more weeks.  You'll notice almost all his throws were <20 yards downfield last week.  And how you beat TAM is going deeper.  

Still, the other way to get them is the RB pass - so Kamara offers that path.   I think it's still worth it, but the value difference isn't as wide as ppl think (it's paying out at a 30 percent rate estimation, and I'd say it's at 38-40 percent, so there's lots of value, just keep in mind it's not 50-50 - if you're committed to doing these bets weekly, it's going to pay off, but as a one-off, it's not something you bet the mortgage or paycheque on - not that it's ever a good idea to do lol).

[SaveOurSonics]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

My ONLY concern is that Hill's finger isn't likely to be still at full strength for 2+ more weeks.  You'll notice almost all his throws were <20 yards downfield last week.  And how you beat TAM is going deeper.  

Still, the other way to get them is the RB pass - so Kamara offers that path.   I think it's still worth it, but the value difference isn't as wide as ppl think (it's paying out at a 30 percent rate estimation, and I'd say it's at 38-40 percent, so there's lots of value, just keep in mind it's not 50-50 - if you're committed to doing these bets weekly, it's going to pay off, but as a one-off, it's not something you bet the mortgage or paycheque on - not that it's ever a good idea to do lol).

Funny you say that. I locked in 1U on the Hill O1.5 +205 and 2U on Kamara O4.5 catches @ +106. 

Kamara had 3 receptions last game vTB, but 7 of the team's 22 receptions from that game are now out for this game. Not only that, but arguably their only other short-intermediate threat, Deonte Harris, is among those out for this game. Kamara saw a near 25% target share in his first game with Taysom under center last week. I feel good about +money here.  

[Broncofan]

56 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Funny you say that. I locked in 1U on the Hill O1.5 +205 and 2U on Kamara O4.5 catches @ +106. 

Kamara had 3 receptions last game vTB, but 7 of the team's 22 receptions from that game are now out for this game. Not only that, but arguably their only other short-intermediate threat, Deonte Harris, is among those out for this game. Kamara saw a near 25% target share in his first game with Taysom under center last week. I feel good about +money here.  

That same Kamara prop is +130 for me - so yeah, I'm ALL over that for 2U as well (book opened up player props 1 hour ago, later than usual with all the news today; why it's so juiced high for now - likely won't in a couple of hours lol).

Edited December 17, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 12/17/2021 at 12:33 AM, Broncofan said:

 

 

OK with TNF updated, here's the Sat/Sun card, with some notable adjustments....and by sheer dumb luck, the PHI line has ballooned due to WFT Covid (no idea on that one), and MIA line went nuts just because NYJ kinda sucks right now (sorry Jets fans).

Just so the remaining Week 15 plays are in 1 place:

 

SAT DOUBLEHEADER

LV 4U ML +180, LV +3 1H 2.2U (to win 2U), LV-CLE U42 2.2U, LV RACE to 15/20 1U (+150/+250/+450/+750) - 12.2U to win 27.4U - self explanatory from prior posts.   Why it pays to get ahead of breaking news when it appears online.  Even if it loses, the value here is insane (and obv I'm not counting on it to lose lol).   EDIT POST-TNF:  If the odds keep getting better in CLE's favor (they're now +3.5 and ML +170 lol), it offers an easy 3-4U hedge in-game if LV takes the lead at +300/+400 odds, and basically guarantee profit either way, will definitely explore.

IND -2 vs NE (PENDING) - this is about the matchups; IND's run game to minimize TO's / sacks vs. NE's D, and their run D forcing the game more into Mac Jones' hands - the only neutralizers are TO potential with Wentz and the massive coaching advantage (Reich still sucks).   I'm hoping the line moves more to NE as time goes by TBH, why I'm willing to wait for now.   If LV goes my way, I'm going to take any IND line of -3 or less, but hoping waiting actually gets more action on BB & NE, and makes IND more profitable (and with that LV outlay, wise to wait regardless lol).

SUNDAY

HOU +140 ML, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) @ JAX - yes, I'm taking Davis Mills over Trevor Lawrence.   Ask me this before the reg. season starts, and I'd say the 4 Horsemen were riding before I'd see this.  Well, the 7th seal might be breaking here.    This isn't a reflection on Lawrence - but how inept the JAX coaching staff is in game planning, deploying personnel, and managing the game.   And that's saying a LOT when I'm comparing them to the Texans.   

CIN +110 ML, RACE to 20/25/30 (+150/+250/+400) @ DEN - CIN opened up at -1.5, and then public money went hard on Denver.   In a TO-neutral game, Burrow's ability to throw vs. pressure, the weapons he has, and I'm presuming Joe Mixon is healthy again, this is a problem.    On the flip side, CIN's run D is decent, which spells trouble for DEN's O - if we're up 2+ scores, we can lean on the run game, and TeddyB's shortcomings as a QB are limited.   Get behind, and we're dead in the water.    Fangio is 1-22 when trailing at halftime.   This is a game where if you take CIN, you take the RACE's, since there's even more implied value.  

PHI -5 vs. WFT (now -9)- with PHI getting healthier & rested off a bye, and WFT losing key players in Logan Thomas, and a very iffy Terry Mclaurin and JD McKissic, this really is a line I think will only increase as time goes by, so I'm willing take this favorite now.

MIA -8.5 vs. NYJ  (now -10.5 lol)- I know, I know, it's 8.5 pts in an intradivisional game.  The thing is, the Jets are absolutely dead in the water on O now with Michael Carter & Elijah Moore & Corey Davis on IR.  Those are literally the 3 matchup problems MIA had to worry about....now, it's a motley crew.   And Tua has Waddle/Parker & Gesicki, and likely Myles Gaskin, as his 4 main weapons.   This IMO will be a 27-10 type game, I'm happy to take this before the line increases more. 

 

So I've put in bets to win 1U on ATS, and the RACE's above at 0.5U as usual (except for LV's 1U each) - and I put in a 0.5U parley on 3 combos: 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -160 / CIN ML +110 at +2100 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -170 (moved up just after I bet #1) / MIA -6 -160 / CIN ML +110 for +2200 (EDIT:  HOU PULLED so go from +5700 to +2200)

Both parleys I can hedge CIN's game with DEN as the last leg. 

So that's a whopping 21.7U I've already put on for Week 14 (assuming I bet IND) - but with 12.7U on LV props alone.   Crazy that I've become a MAJOR Raiders fan this week - but team allegiances don't care about $ opps lol.  BOL!

 

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 ATS:

ATS 41-41; 10-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS). 

Player props - 144-134, +40.5U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-58, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +112.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 TNF - -1.2U)

To this card - 2 updates - with the reschedules, the line for LV-CLE has moved to LV +130 - which to me, is quite puzzling -since it's clearly done with the idea CLE will get a ton of players back.  I'm not sure this will be the case at all - on average, Covid+ players needed 7+ days to get 2 days of negative tests - under the new criteria, it would appear 6+ days would be the target, which only helps at most about 15-20 percent of players.    Maybe there's inside info the books have - but IMO this is an opportunity to take the LV+130 in books that allow voiding the bets pre-game as long as the odds aren't worse.   We saw how much the line moved when CLE lost all their guys - so it stands to reason it would move again towards LV if even 2/3 of the starters were still out.    To me, it's an opp to gain leverage, so please consider it if you didn't get in before - but ONLY if you have books that allow voiding the bets pre-game (and ask if you don't know).

 

OK, with player props missing, 6 that stand out, all good enough for 2U plays with the injury chaos:

D'onta Foreman O51.5 rush yards - the PIT rush D is a mess right, and TEN is leaning on the run.    I know it's a timeshare, but at that number, shouldn't matter. 

AJ Green O53.5 receiving yards - this was covered last week, when Nuk Hopkins doesn't play and there isn't a lockdown CB matchup, AJG pays off his props.  

Gabriel Davis O41.5 receiving yards - with Manny Sanders out, we see Davis become a full-time starter.    He's already seeing an 18% target share with part-time work, this is a smash spot for that number.

Devante Parker O54.5 receiving yards - with Jaylen Waddle out, Parker becomes the #1 - we've seen him absolutely smash in this spot before, Tua clearly trusts him, Waddle & Gesicki.   Gesicki is also a good play, but wanted to focus my exposure here.

Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches +110 - on the surface, it looks risky, until you dig deeper in the CIN-DEN matchup.  CIN is 10th in rush DVOA on D, and likely no Javonte Williams, or very limited.   CIN's pass D is 22nd, and frankly, I still think CIN is the better team - which means DEN has to catch up.  When DEN has to throw it, Jeudy's the #1 target guy by a fair margin.   If I think CIN is the better team, there's no Javonte, I have to take this prop and even for 2U.

Alvin Kamara O4.5 catches +130 (SNF) - this was discussed already, but add in 2 more points - in the 4 reg. season games from 2019-20, before this 2021 matchup, Kamara has had 5+ catches vs. TAM's D.  And the fact Taysom Hill's finger injury is still an issue (he threw almost exclusively <20 yards downfield vs. NYJ), again a big confidence play.

2U each means I've put 12U on the above plays, plus a 0.5U +6200 6-leg parley for a total 12.5U risk on player props this Sunday.  BOL! 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[braylon]

DK currently has Jonathan Taylor’s Over on Carrie’s at 18.5 at -135.. pretty big fan of that.. he’s hit it in 4 of the last 5.

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, braylon said:

DK currently has Jonathan Taylor’s Over on Carrie’s at 18.5 at -135.. pretty big fan of that.. he’s hit it in 4 of the last 5.

Feels like a lot of juice but idk. Keep in mind JT hasn’t hit the Over in any of the Colts 6 losses (despite 2 of those reaching OT). They will also be without C Ryan Kelly. That said, you have to imagine the Colts know he’s their best bet to win this game. I’m getting it at 19.5 so staying away. 

I kinda like Mac Jones O1.5 pass TDs @ +104. Was +110 yesterday. Colts are dead last in Pass TD% and the loss of Damien Harris should be a boon for the passing game. 

Also eyeing Rhamondre O73 rush. Feels like a really good spot for him with Harris out. While Indy is middle of the pack in rush yards per game given up, they are bottom 10 in yards per carry. 

[SaveOurSonics]

6 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I kinda like Mac Jones O1.5 pass TDs @ +104. Was +110 yesterday. Colts are dead last in Pass TD% and the loss of Damien Harris should be a boon for the passing game. 

Also eyeing Rhamondre O73 rush. Feels like a really good spot for him with Harris out. While Indy is middle of the pack in rush yards per game given up, they are bottom 10 in yards per carry.

Alright I locked in Rhamondre. Still doing homework on Mac Jones. 

Here is Mac’s TD total in games against teams who currently have winning records (taking out Bills game because…duh). 

2 vTEN
3 vCLE
0 vLAC
2 vDAL
2 vTB

For those who don’t like math, that’s an 80% hit rate. Again, the Colts are 32nd in Pass TD% and 31st in Pass TDs surrendered per game. 

I think I have to hit this. 

 

 

[agarcia34]

Did a Stevenson over 54.5 rushing yards and Taylor over 79.5 rushing yards parlay +120

[N4L]

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Feels like a lot of juice but idk. Keep in mind JT hasn’t hit the Over in any of the Colts 6 losses (despite 2 of those reaching OT). They will also be without C Ryan Kelly. That said, you have to imagine the Colts know he’s their best bet to win this game. I’m getting it at 19.5 so staying away. 

I kinda like Mac Jones O1.5 pass TDs @ +104. Was +110 yesterday. Colts are dead last in Pass TD% and the loss of Damien Harris should be a boon for the passing game. 

Also eyeing Rhamondre O73 rush. Feels like a really good spot for him with Harris out. While Indy is middle of the pack in rush yards per game given up, they are bottom 10 in yards per carry. 

I followed these and I also did over 20.5 Mac completions because of your reasoning 

I also did JT over 2.5 catches because I think IND will have to get creative on how to get him the football 

[N4L]

I just took the colts -4. That offense looks like they have a plan for the pats defense 

JT having success on the ground was a great sign. Love how they mixed up the interior and edge plays 

[SaveOurSonics]

8 hours ago, braylon said:

DK currently has Jonathan Taylor’s Over on Carrie’s at 18.5 at -135.. pretty big fan of that.. he’s hit it in 4 of the last 5.

Not even halftime and happy to admit I was wrong here. Patriots getting punched in the mouth like I never would’ve predicted. 

[SaveOurSonics]

40 minutes ago, N4L said:

I just took the colts -4. That offense looks like they have a plan for the pats defense 

JT having success on the ground was a great sign. Love how they mixed up the interior and edge plays 

Good play. This game clearly means a lot more to them. The defense is FLYING. 

[agarcia34]

1 hour ago, agarcia34 said:

Did a Stevenson over 54.5 rushing yards and Taylor over 79.5 rushing yards parlay +120

Stevenson gonna kill this. 

[N4L]

16 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Good play. This game clearly means a lot more to them. The defense is FLYING. 

Took them +3 in the second half as well 

NE isn't one to come back. The colts are more physical on both sides of the ball tonight. Their DL is pretty stout. They are making Mac beat them 

Meanwhile, you cant stop JT? Yeah, I'll take +3 for + money all day long 

[SaveOurSonics]

I’m just gonna go ahead and assume that the Mac Jones prop won’t hit which…..boy, hurts. So many chances.