Broncofan Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) Btw if ppl like Indy & SF to win the games this week - Indy is +450 to +500 to win the AFCS. That’s because TEN owns the tiebreaker. So Indy has to gain 2 games in the next 3 weeks. But that drops to 1 game in last 2 weeks if Indy & SF win - TEN then has MIA/HOU left & IND has LV/JAX left. It’s a higher risk but higher payout speculation play on the next 3 weeks that’s worth considering now. If Indy & TEN are tied by this week I’d think the Colts will be the favorite given their trajectories. @N4L @NYRaider @SaveOurSonics something for you all to consider. Edited December 23, 2021 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Locked in 49ers -3. The line seems very fishy but I always bite on that. As long as Jimmy G isn't a disaster, the 49ers should be able to win comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) OK for tonight, with Mitchell, out and assuming AJ Brown is back, 3 player props I'm backing and 2 TD props as well (same players!): Jauan Jennings O19.5 rec yards 2U (now 20.5) - @SaveOurSonics & @N4L gave the reasoning, with Eli Mitchell confirmed out, Deebo Samuel remains as a de facto RB, leaving enough work for Jennings to hit this. This is a 2U confidence play given the Josh Palmer vs NYG / Gabriel Davis vs. NE similarities. Ryan Tannehill O15.5 rush yards - @SaveOurSonics gave the reasoning, I have no reason to argue here, in fact I like it enough to take another prop, as well, in the TD section. D'Onta Foreman O48.5 rush yards - unlike last week, where the PIT run D was awful, I don't have the same type of confidence to make this a 2U play. But I also know that TEN is committed to grind it out, and shorten the game, to keep their DL fresh, and to limit the talent gaps they're experiencing. With Saffold & Lewan out, it's even more likely they commit to the run, as the backups fare better with run blocking than pass blocking. At that low of a number, I'm willing to back for sure. Longshot TD Props: Jauan Jennings +3500 TD / +3000 2+ (0.7U/0.3U) - with Keith Byard on Kittle, and Deebo/Aiyuk still there to threaten the Secondary, I expect that Jennings would draw the best matchups near the EZ, and JimmyG loves his size/height profile. Ryan Tannehill +375 TD (1U) - especiallly with no Derrick Henry, we've been seeing a lot more RPO near the EZ, and Tanny keeper TD was a risk even with Henry. For the value, I think this is a strong play, so I'll back it with 1U straight up. I've also put a 0.5U same-game parley with TEN +10 -300 / O16.5 team points -200 / Jennings O1.5 catches & O19.5 rec yards / Aiyuk O3.5 cathches & O48.5 rec yards / Tannehill O15.5 rush yards / Foreman O48.5 rush yards for +3000. This gives me 7.5U risked for tonight - hoping we can get Week 16 off to a nice start. BOL! Edited December 23, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 God bless Twitter. Got the Taysom Hill news and immediately hit a MIA+10 / U46 Teaser seconds before my book took it down. It sounds pretty definitive that Taysom will miss the game, and boy do I think Ian Book is bad. I was already leaning this way for that game, so to take it with this news is great. 2U play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: Ryan Tannehill O15.5 rush yards - @SaveOurSonics gave the reasoning, I have no reason to argue here, in fact I like it enough to take another prop, as well, in the TD section. I’ll shoot straight with you. I’m not loving the bet the way I was. If AJB plays, Tannehill seems far less likely to take off in those situations. Prior to AJB’s 3 game hiatus, Tanny had hit the Over in only 1 of his last 6 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: God bless Twitter. Got the Taysom Hill news and immediately hit a MIA+10 / U46 Teaser seconds before my book took it down. It sounds pretty definitive that Taysom will miss the game, and boy do I think Ian Book is bad. I was already leaning this way for that game, so to take it with this news is great. 2U play. I took MIA +150 and RACE to 20/25 with the hint NO was experiencing an outbreak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I took MIA +150 and RACE to 20/25 with the hint NO was experiencing an outbreak. Very nice. I had to act hastily and didn't know if Taysom would for sure be ruled out so just went with what I felt was a safe bet regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Very nice. I had to act hastily and didn't know if Taysom would for sure be ruled out so just went with what I felt was a safe bet regardless. Yeah I get it. Fwiw it’s why I took LAR -3 even before they played on Tuesday - looks like that’s come to roost as well. One big reason I can is my book allows bets to be voided pre-game as long as the line doesn’t get worse for the team I take. That’s a big level of security. Edited December 23, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I haven’t bet it yet but I could only play the 49ers here. D.Ryan has those guys on defense playing really good right now and with the Titans OL issues Bosa and Key who has been really good the past couple weeks just gives them such an advantage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) Starting to feel like D'Onta Foreman U52.5 yards is a good play. 49ers are 2nd in Run D DVOA over the last 6 games, and that is even slightly skewed because Travis Homer's fake punt return TD counted as a RB rush. Take that out, and they are the #1 run defense over the last 6 weeks. Take a look at the production of guys they've faced: Cordarrelle Patterson - 11 carries for 18 yards for 1.6 YPC Joe Mixon - 18 for 58 for 3.2 Rashad Penny - 10 for 35 for 3.5 Dalvin Cook - 10 for 39 for 3.9 James Robinson - 12 for 29 for 2.4 Darrell Henderson - 5 for 31 for 6.2 They have been LIGHTS OUTS against the opposition's #1 back. The only guy to clear 52.5 yards was Joe Mixon, and that came on the back of 18 carries. I think I'm going to lock this one in as well. None of what I just said even mentioned the fact that the Titans are now down 3 of their best OLinemen for this game. Edited December 23, 2021 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I played 49ers ML -160 don’t want to deal with the points. Feel more comfortable with the juice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: I played 49ers ML -160 don’t want to deal with the points. Feel more comfortable with the juice. Also played Deebo over 32.5 rushing yards. Titans struggle with outside runs… Where do those Deebo runs plays designed to go.. The outside.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: I played 49ers ML -160 don’t want to deal with the points. Feel more comfortable with the juice. As much as I don't like those juiced odds, sometimes it's better to pick the winner and live with the lower payout. A win's still a win. Edited December 23, 2021 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, Broncofan said: As much as I don't like those juiced odds, sometimes it's better to pick the winner and live with the lower payout. A win's still a win. Yeah not a long term winning thing to do but in certain spots I find it okay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Got a fun SGP for 25 to win 825 +3300 49ers ML/Bullock over 5.5 kicking points/Kittle receptions over 5.5/Deebo rushing yards over 33.5/Deebo over 48.5 rec yards/No int for Jimmy. Should have a a chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.