Weekly Bets Thread

[NYRaider]

Assuming that Waller/Jacobs play Sunday, I love the Raiders, ML this week.

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, NYRaider said:

D'Onta Foreman O70.5 rushing yards

The last time the Titans and Texans played was in terrible weather and the Titans turned the ball over 5 times so they had to abandon the run which led to Tannehill throwing the ball 52 times. Julio Jones and AJ Brown are both playing this week after missing the first game and Tennessee can secure the #1 seed with a win. Foreman has two 100+ yard rushing efforts over the last three weeks going up against the Houston's 32nd ranked run defense. I expect Tennessee to jump out to an early lead and pound the rock with Foreman.

Sadly I don't have the Foreman prop out, I'd be all over Foreman for 2U minimum at that number.   

The props I am on that are out today, let's start with KC-DEN:

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +180 2U - I know Vic Fangio has done a great job vs. KC's O in limiting points.  But no Surtain, Darby or Nate Hairston, that's 3 of our top 5 CB's.    It's probably a 50-50 prop now, so don't bet the house, but the leverage on +180 makes this a 2U play.

Jerry Jeudy O3.5 catches +140 - this is iffier because Jeudy's coming off Covid, and that's always a flag.  It's why I don't want the yardage prop.  Having said that, Lock predicted a Jeudy breakout game vs. LAC before he went on the Covid list, so I expect he'll get at least 6-7 targets, so that makes the +140 play so appealing.  Only a 1U play given Covid and KC's secondary (and don't want the yardage prop at all, I might get 4/30 here lol).

Tyreek Hill O62.5 rec yards - DEN's D is still going to focus on Hill, so it might take a broken play to get the bulk of the yards.  I do expect he'll get 25-35 "easy" yards on 4+ catches where DEN is laying off.   The Q is whether he can get the big chunk play that blows this out of the water.    

Byron Pringle O29.5 rec yards 2U - this is simply WAY too low for the #2 WR right now.  This is where the DEN secondary is likely to show big problems.   Easy 2U play IMO.

Darrel Williams O23.5 rec yards - Mahomes' safety valve, and so I think 4/30 is a far more likely number.  If the catch prop comes in at O2.5, I'll swing there especially if it's plus money.

Travis Kelce O63.5 rec yards - DEN is also down Kareem Jackson, and while I think he's slipping, his size helped match up against Kelce.  I expect a lot of Justin Simmons here, though, when he's not helping on Hill's side.  Still, I think Kelce should get to 75+, so i have to take this, but only a 1U play.   FWIW if the catch prop goes O5.5 or less, I may go there.    

Jerry Jeudy +450 TD / +5000 2+ (now +350/+4000 - 0.6U / 0.1U) - just a feeling that if they were going to target him a lot, that TD prop is just so tasty odds-wise.  

Albert O +900 TD / +11000 2+ (now +750 / +10000 - 0.7U / 0.1U) - I think this is where the TD value is today, though.  I'm legitimately surprised it's this high.   I know KC won't likely give more than 2 TD's, but I think Albert O is actually the most likely to get it the way they feature him as a mismatch, even more than Fant.

Obviously if this ends up being a 16-9 game, I'm hosed lol.   But I'm counting on the KC pass game having a lot more success than normal with all the injuries (and lack of pass rush by DEN and injuries in the ILB corps).    Realistically, I'm not hitting on all the KC props, I'm banking on Mahomes 3 TD's, and then 3/4 receiving props to hit - I'm just going to concentrate all of the props on the top 4 guys.  

There are literally ZERO PHI-DAL props with all the uncertainty, so I'm staying away for now.  Maybe I'll see what they end up posting after the inactives are announced (but I won't hold my breath, given a lot of the Q's will be around what happens in-game).   

Edited January 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

So doing a single game FanDuel is very difficult for tonight's game. 

Is Minshew expected to play majority of the game?? What about Rush? Is Gainwell going to be the Iggles starter? Jackson going to be the starter at TE foot them?

I have over 20k left in cash and I feel like I'm doing it wrong lol

[braylon]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Sadly I don't have the Foreman prop out, I'd be all over Foreman for 2U minimum at that number.   

The props I am on that are out today, let's start with KC-DEN:

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +180 2U - I know Vic Fangio has done a great job vs. KC's O in limiting points.  But no Surtain, Darby or Nate Hairston, that's 3 of our top 5 CB's.    It's probably a 50-50 prop now, so don't bet the house, but the leverage on +180 makes this a 2U play.

Jerry Jeudy O3.5 catches +140 - this is iffier because Jeudy's coming off Covid, and that's always a flag.  It's why I don't want the yardage prop.  Having said that, Lock predicted a Jeudy breakout game vs. LAC before he went on the Covid list, so I expect he'll get at least 6-7 targets, so that makes the +140 play so appealing.  Only a 1U play given Covid and KC's secondary (and don't want the yardage prop at all, I might get 4/30 here lol).

Tyreek Hill O62.5 rec yards - DEN's D is still going to focus on Hill, so it might take a broken play to get the bulk of the yards.  I do expect he'll get 25-35 "easy" yards on 4+ catches where DEN is laying off.   The Q is whether he can get the big chunk play that blows this out of the water.    

Byron Pringle O29.5 rec yards 2U - this is simply WAY too low for the #2 WR right now.  This is where the DEN secondary is likely to show big problems.   Easy 2U play IMO.

Darrel Williams O23.5 rec yards - Mahomes' safety valve, and so I think 4/30 is a far more likely number.  If the catch prop comes in at O2.5, I'll swing there especially if it's plus money.

Travis Kelce O63.5 rec yards - DEN is also down Kareem Jackson, and while I think he's slipping, his size helped match up against Kelce.  I expect a lot of Justin Simmons here, though, when he's not helping on Hill's side.  Still, I think Kelce should get to 75+, so i have to take this, but only a 1U play.   FWIW if the catch prop goes O5.5 or less, I may go there.    

Jerry Jeudy +450 TD / +5000 2+ (now +350/+4000 - 0.6U / 0.1U) - just a feeling that if they were going to target him a lot, that TD prop is just so tasty odds-wise.  

Albert O +900 TD / +11000 2+ (now +750 / +10000 - 0.7U / 0.1U) - I think this is where the TD value is today, though.  I'm legitimately surprised it's this high.   I know KC won't likely give more than 2 TD's, but I think Albert O is actually the most likely to get it the way they feature him as a mismatch, even more than Fant.

Obviously if this ends up being a 16-9 game, I'm hosed lol.   But I'm counting on the KC pass game having a lot more success than normal with all the injuries (and lack of pass rush by DEN and injuries in the ILB corps).    Realistically, I'm not hitting on all the KC props, I'm banking on Mahomes 3 TD's, and then 3/4 receiving props to hit - I'm just going to concentrate all of the props on the top 4 guys.  

There are literally ZERO PHI-DAL props with all the uncertainty, so I'm staying away for now.  Maybe I'll see what they end up posting after the inactives are announced (but I won't hold my breath, given a lot of the Q's will be around what happens in-game).   

Probably tailing on literally all of these.. also thinking Darrell Williams TD at +100 and Lock under 209 passing yards are both great plays. Thoughts on those?

[Broncofan]

As for Sunday's card, I've got 5 ATS/ML plays, 4 player overs I'm locked in on (not easy to find lol), 3 I'm specifically waiting to take the over unless the number is crazy, and 3 TD props (and one I'm willing to double my usual stake) so far:

ATS/ML/RACE

EARLY

CLE RACE to 20/25 0.5U each (+180/320 - taken before the CIN news) - taken from earlier this week, already covered.  CLE is now -6, so obviously I love those odds.

DET +5 vs. GB (now +4) - Besides DET being ATS beasts, I do think it's highly unlikely GB plays more than 1H.  Everything points to Goff playing, which gave me enough confidence to take the points.  

WFT -7 @ NYG - the only way this goes south is if the WFT O just screws the pooch here.   The NYG O is beyond abysmal.   

LATE

MIA ML +240, RACE to 20/25 0.5U each (+450/+800) vs NE - I'm banking on BB resting his starters at halftime, if BUF is running away with the NYJ game.   We've seen BB be VERY conservative with playing his guys, ever since Wes Welker tore his ACL in the 1Q of a meaningless final game @ HOU.

SNF

LAC -3 @ LV - I get it, the Raiders & Madden at home.   I'm just going with the better QB, and the better-coached team.    

As mentioned, I have a KC -9.5 / PHI +6.5 (now +4) / MIA ML / DET +5 / WFT -7 / LAC -3 for +7200 at 0.5U as well, so I've got 7.5U on the line ATS/ML & RACE wise today/tomorrow.

PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD PROPS

The J-Taylor & Kupp props came in at insane #'s - O115.5 rush yards and O9.5 catches / O107.5 rec yards.   If anything, I'd think about the unders more than the overs, but I'm just going to pass.    Re: Gronk, I'm torn - as I looked and CAR's safeties are both playing, and that is a huge part of their top 5 TE DST - so that's a pass, as much as I think TB12 will try to feed him.

EARLY

Stefon Diggs O6.5 catches +120 2U - we've covered how he needs 6 catches to get his bonus.  We also know BUF has to win here to clinch the AFCE.  So I'm ok risking 2U with him getting to 7.

Laquon Treadwell O46.5 rec yards 2U - In the 6 games since he's become a starter (>80% snap share), he's gone 4+ catches / 53+ yards every time.   I don't see how that changes in a game script that figures to be pass heavy.

EDIT ADDED SAT PM Diontae Johnson O5.5 catches +100 - I'm surprised it's not 7 catches, and while I'm definitely worried about Covid, the negative 1 day later tells me there's a high chance this was a false positive.   So in that event, I'll take a small dip in the water.

EDIT ADDED SAT PM Mark Andrews O5.5 catches +100 2U - I don't get this being this low either, so I'll gladly take this one too.

EDIT ADDED SAT PM Mike Evans O5.5 catches +100 - Evans is the last of the big 3 WR left, and with no Gilmore, I expect 10+ targets, so I'll take 6+ catches.   With him needed 54 yards to break 1000 for the 8th straight season (an NFL record), I expect we'll see him get there - but the O71.5 yards IMO is equally do-able, but I like the +100 with O5.5, and hope he doesn't 5/80+ and make me regret that choice lol.

 

D'onta Foreman O??? yards (PENDING) - @NYRaider has a line of 70.5 yards, but I suspect it won't be officially out on my book until the inactives are confirmed, given Derek Henry's status (they'd be crazy to play him IMO).

Amon-Ra St. Brown O??? catches (PENDING) - honestly, if it's 6.5, I might still bite (but will have to be mega plus-money).    Goff will use him as the security blanket, so I love the catches more than the yards.

 

LATE

Zach Ertz O43.5 rec yards 2U - SEA's got the worst TE pass D, this is super easy.   If the catch prop is O4.5 like it's been for plus money, I'll probably add 2U there too.

Rashad Penny O???? rush yards (PENDING) - no mystery here, I don't expect JJ Watt to play much, let alone be active...so the ARI run D can be exploited.    Pete Carroll will definitely lean on the run game, and he goes all out to win each week (no playing backups to "get a look" here, there aren't any worth it regardless). 

SNF

Jared Cook O3.5 catches +150 - if this was even money, I'd pass.  But I can't ignore how much the LV pass D allows TE's to thrive - averaging almost 7 catches a game.   Cook went 6/70 last time, and with no Donald Parham, it's still Cook as the main guy.   It's just that he's so clearly declining, but I can't ignore the matchup and past history.   Still, I prefer players who are ascending, which is why I'll only go 1U (but I will include it in the parley, to allow a hedge if the other 5 hit).

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Juwan Johnson +800 / +11000 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) - he's back to playing the move TE role, and lost in last week's game - got 2/3 RZ targets (Callaway got the other).   Much like Donald Parham, he's a guy the Saints look for as they get close, they design plays specifically for him.   He's definitely my favorite long-shot TD play this week, so I'm doubling up on my usual stake here.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM CJ Ham +2800 TD (0.7U) - with very little to play for, and Cook banged up, I expect less work, which opens up short-yardage situations for Ham to score.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM JJ Taylor +1000 TD / +12500 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - Damien Harris hurting, and Pats often rest guys once there's nothing to play for.  If BUF gets up a lot, then I expect a lot more Taylor. These odds are just too good.    

EDIT ADDED SUN AM Equanamious St-Brown +500 TD (0.6U) - very restricted prop slate, but this is one that stands out.   I expect him to get the most targets if the starters all go.   

Rashad Higgins / CLE TE (+600 or better - PENDING) - CIN's really vulnerable vs. the TE, and Higgins gets more RZ looks than Landry or DPJ.   He almost hit last 2 games at +700, I hope the line stays that high.    Waiting here.

LATE

Trey Lance +4000 / +5000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - if JimmyG is active, I'll pull this one.  But if it's Lance starting, then the RPO run gives LAR run D trouble, and I expect this should be more like a +250 prop. 

 

SNF

Steven Anderson +600 / +7500 2+ (now +500 / +6000 - 0.6U / 0.1U) - LV's vulnerable against the TE, and LAC still dials up at least 1-2 looks that way (it wasn't open, Anderson isn't as athletic as Parham).   Worth a sniff

So that's 10U on 7 player props, willing to put 5U more (Foreman, St-Brown & Penny, and willing to double up on O4.5 Ertz catches if it's +money).   I have 5U on Johnson / Lance / Anderson (EDIT SUN AM:  added ESB/Ham/JJ Taylor) TD props, and willing to add CLE TE's / Higgins if the odds are good (Keenum is meh, but he's actually 10x better than Bad Baker right now).   I've also put a 0.5U parley on Andrews O5.5 +100 / Diontae J 5.5 +100 / Diggs O6.5 catches +120 / Treadwell O46.5 rec yards / Ertz O43.5 rec yards  at +8500 as well, so hoping concentrating my plays in Week 18 pays off (EDIT: Took Jeudy off before once I had Andrews / Diontae J).      Either way, that's 13.5U in player/TD props so far.

EDIT:  I'm at -4U for SatNF, so with 21U on Sunday's card (including the 0.5U player prop parley), hoping to see if we can end the regular season in the black.  BOL!

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Broncofan
Updated SatNF results and Sat PM/Sun AM additions

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, braylon said:

Probably tailing on literally all of these.. also thinking Darrell Williams TD at +100 and Lock under 209 passing yards are both great plays. Thoughts on those?

Darrel Williams TD is a strong play because he could get it either way (DEN's LB's without Young and Browning, and Jewell/Johnson out for the year) - it's a big problem, why I liked the pass yardage prop. I decided to stay out of TD props that were less than +250, and stick to longshots for the season, but I think there's a really good shot, better than 50-50 with a D-Will TD (I'd say 60 percent), so there's some value on the line.

Lock I'm very leery on, simply because if KC gets ahead way early, then it's all garbage time vs. LAC.   Lock threw for 215 yards vs. LAC - 130+ on the last 3 drives which were meaningless (they were up 20-3 on the 1st drive, allowed a FG, and then the KRTD made it 27-6).   Lock basically had 1.5 Q's of much softer D that was just giving up short plays.  You could see something VERY similar today.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, braylon said:

Probably tailing on literally all of these.. also thinking Darrell Williams TD at +100 and Lock under 209 passing yards are both great plays. Thoughts on those?

Just so everyone understands - with me putting 9U on KC-DEN, and 6U of them on Mahomes TD props / top 4 KC guy rec yard props - I'm basically saying I think KC O kills DEN D in the air.   Taking all 4 main guys is my hedge against not knowing where the matchups will be exploited - but it all goes wrong if we're wrong on that single premise.   

The other 3 DEN props (Jeudy O3.5 catches +140, Jeudy TD prop / Albert O TD prop), can happen even with garbage time, or getting the script wrong (and I'm including the 0.5U KC -9.5 / PHI +6.5 / WFT -7 / DET +4.5 / MIA ML +2400 / LAC -3 +8200 parley too).  But the profit/loss result almost entirely depends on getting that gamescript right.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[braylon]

39 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Just so everyone understand - with me putting 9U on KC-DEN, and 6U of them on Mahomes TD props / top 4 KC guy rec yard props - I'm basically saying I think KC O kills DEN D in the air.   Taking all 4 main guys is my hedge against not knowing where the matchups will be exploited - but it all goes wrong if we're wrong on that single premise.   

The other 3 DEN props (Jeudy O3.5 catches +140, Jeudy TD prop / Albert O TD prop), can happen even with garbage time, or getting the script wrong (and I'm including the 0.5U KC -9.5 / PHI +6.5 / WFT -7 / DET +4.5 / MIA ML +2400 / LAC -3 +8200 parley too).  But the profit/loss result almost entirely depends on getting that gamescript right.

No doubt understood, and I agree with the prediction, so I'm in lol. And I appreciate the insight on the other bets.

[SaveOurSonics]

10 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Assuming that Waller/Jacobs play Sunday, I love the Raiders, ML this week.

I’m tempted to take the Over on Jacobs rushing. 

[SmittyBacall]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Sadly I don't have the Foreman prop out, I'd be all over Foreman for 2U minimum at that number.   

The props I am on that are out today, let's start with KC-DEN:

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +180 2U - I know Vic Fangio has done a great job vs. KC's O in limiting points.  But no Surtain, Darby or Nate Hairston, that's 3 of our top 5 CB's.    It's probably a 50-50 prop now, so don't bet the house, but the leverage on +180 makes this a 2U play.

Jerry Jeudy O3.5 catches +140 - this is iffier because Jeudy's coming off Covid, and that's always a flag.  It's why I don't want the yardage prop.  Having said that, Lock predicted a Jeudy breakout game vs. LAC before he went on the Covid list, so I expect he'll get at least 6-7 targets, so that makes the +140 play so appealing.  Only a 1U play given Covid and KC's secondary (and don't want the yardage prop at all, I might get 4/30 here lol).

Tyreek Hill O62.5 rec yards - DEN's D is still going to focus on Hill, so it might take a broken play to get the bulk of the yards.  I do expect he'll get 25-35 "easy" yards on 4+ catches where DEN is laying off.   The Q is whether he can get the big chunk play that blows this out of the water.    

Byron Pringle O29.5 rec yards 2U - this is simply WAY too low for the #2 WR right now.  This is where the DEN secondary is likely to show big problems.   Easy 2U play IMO.

Darrel Williams O23.5 rec yards - Mahomes' safety valve, and so I think 4/30 is a far more likely number.  If the catch prop comes in at O2.5, I'll swing there especially if it's plus money.

Travis Kelce O63.5 rec yards - DEN is also down Kareem Jackson, and while I think he's slipping, his size helped match up against Kelce.  I expect a lot of Justin Simmons here, though, when he's not helping on Hill's side.  Still, I think Kelce should get to 75+, so i have to take this, but only a 1U play.   FWIW if the catch prop goes O5.5 or less, I may go there.    

Jerry Jeudy +450 TD / +5000 2+ (now +350/+4000 - 0.6U / 0.1U) - just a feeling that if they were going to target him a lot, that TD prop is just so tasty odds-wise.  

Albert O +900 TD / +11000 2+ (now +750 / +10000 - 0.7U / 0.1U) - I think this is where the TD value is today, though.  I'm legitimately surprised it's this high.   I know KC won't likely give more than 2 TD's, but I think Albert O is actually the most likely to get it the way they feature him as a mismatch, even more than Fant.

Obviously if this ends up being a 16-9 game, I'm hosed lol.   But I'm counting on the KC pass game having a lot more success than normal with all the injuries (and lack of pass rush by DEN and injuries in the ILB corps).    Realistically, I'm not hitting on all the KC props, I'm banking on Mahomes 3 TD's, and then 3/4 receiving props to hit - I'm just going to concentrate all of the props on the top 4 guys.  

There are literally ZERO PHI-DAL props with all the uncertainty, so I'm staying away for now.  Maybe I'll see what they end up posting after the inactives are announced (but I won't hold my breath, given a lot of the Q's will be around what happens in-game).   

Not feeling great about this slate ATM. Tyreek injured during warmups, and Denver’s D has come to play despite injuries. Hoping for a turnaround soon…

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Not feeling great about this slate ATM. Tyreek injured during warmups, and Denver’s D has come to play despite injuries. Hoping for a turnaround soon…

Yeah, Hill getting hurt pre-game changes the KC's O ability for quick strikes, and make it an easy call to take out Kelce as well.   And then on the flip side, it takes DEN's need to throw the ball if they can stay close.    Jeudy was wide open on the 1st drive, but man, it's a tough way to see more targets if DEN's run game can keep them close.

TOTAL game-changer with Hill out.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Damn. Lost my Tyreek prop. Hit on the Chiefs leg of two Teasers (both KC-3). Hit on Chiefs O1.5 FGs. 

This game I have DAL-3.5, PHI+10 (teaser), and Zeke U75 rushing. 

[NYRaider]

It's difficult to really even make picks this week because some teams may intentionally tank and others may sit starters.

Games that I do like though:

Rams (-3.5) vs 49ers 

Yes I know that the 49ers have won 5 straight against Sean McVay but the Rams can secure the 2nd seed with a win and would play either the Eagles or Saints in the wild card game. A win for the Rams also guarantees that they'll be home in the wild card/divisional rounds and depending on what happens with the Packers they could potentially make the Super Bowl without ever having to leave Los Angeles. Jimmy G is reportedly going to play but his thumb was clearly bothering him against the Titans and I don't think that he has had enough time to heal up. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Lesson learned on the Zeke play? Somewhat. My book never released a rushing line for him so not even sure what his O/U was, but I can assure you I would’ve bet the Under, and I only played 1U here (my only truly good judgment call on this one). I just didn’t expect any of the Dallas starters to play into the 4Q. 

Beyond that, won DAL-3.5 but once again lost my attempt to hedge with a KC-3/PHI+10 Teaser. 

I was going to play DAL -3 1H but ended up playing 1H>2H Total Points for a win and a net even game. Felt like an easy call in what I assumed would be only 1 half of football for the Dallas starters. Hindsight being 20/20, I should’ve just played both separately. 

Edited January 9, 2022 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Sadly I don't have the Foreman prop out, I'd be all over Foreman for 2U minimum at that number.   

The props I am on that are out today, let's start with KC-DEN:

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +180 2U - I know Vic Fangio has done a great job vs. KC's O in limiting points.  But no Surtain, Darby or Nate Hairston, that's 3 of our top 5 CB's.    It's probably a 50-50 prop now, so don't bet the house, but the leverage on +180 makes this a 2U play.

Jerry Jeudy O3.5 catches +140 - this is iffier because Jeudy's coming off Covid, and that's always a flag.  It's why I don't want the yardage prop.  Having said that, Lock predicted a Jeudy breakout game vs. LAC before he went on the Covid list, so I expect he'll get at least 6-7 targets, so that makes the +140 play so appealing.  Only a 1U play given Covid and KC's secondary (and don't want the yardage prop at all, I might get 4/30 here lol).

Tyreek Hill O62.5 rec yards - DEN's D is still going to focus on Hill, so it might take a broken play to get the bulk of the yards.  I do expect he'll get 25-35 "easy" yards on 4+ catches where DEN is laying off.   The Q is whether he can get the big chunk play that blows this out of the water.    

Byron Pringle O29.5 rec yards 2U - this is simply WAY too low for the #2 WR right now.  This is where the DEN secondary is likely to show big problems.   Easy 2U play IMO.

Darrel Williams O23.5 rec yards - Mahomes' safety valve, and so I think 4/30 is a far more likely number.  If the catch prop comes in at O2.5, I'll swing there especially if it's plus money.

Travis Kelce O63.5 rec yards - DEN is also down Kareem Jackson, and while I think he's slipping, his size helped match up against Kelce.  I expect a lot of Justin Simmons here, though, when he's not helping on Hill's side.  Still, I think Kelce should get to 75+, so i have to take this, but only a 1U play.   FWIW if the catch prop goes O5.5 or less, I may go there.    

Jerry Jeudy +450 TD / +5000 2+ (now +350/+4000 - 0.6U / 0.1U) - just a feeling that if they were going to target him a lot, that TD prop is just so tasty odds-wise.  

Albert O +900 TD / +11000 2+ (now +750 / +10000 - 0.7U / 0.1U) - I think this is where the TD value is today, though.  I'm legitimately surprised it's this high.   I know KC won't likely give more than 2 TD's, but I think Albert O is actually the most likely to get it the way they feature him as a mismatch, even more than Fant.

Obviously if this ends up being a 16-9 game, I'm hosed lol.   But I'm counting on the KC pass game having a lot more success than normal with all the injuries (and lack of pass rush by DEN and injuries in the ILB corps).    Realistically, I'm not hitting on all the KC props, I'm banking on Mahomes 3 TD's, and then 3/4 receiving props to hit - I'm just going to concentrate all of the props on the top 4 guys.  

There are literally ZERO PHI-DAL props with all the uncertainty, so I'm staying away for now.  Maybe I'll see what they end up posting after the inactives are announced (but I won't hold my breath, given a lot of the Q's will be around what happens in-game).   

So I go 2-4 on player props (Pringle & D-Williams hit early for 3U total, but Mahomes/Tyreek/Kelce/Jeudy all miss), for a total of -2U.  The TD props are 0-2, and the parley whiffs, so that's a -4U day.

Can't do much about this one - the gamescript completely changed with Hill out - everything in the KC pass game changed.   Oh well, that's the game sometimes.

On to tomorrow, I have a couple of additions to make while I'm still waiting for Foreman / Penny / St-Brown props to come in...