NYRaider Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Player props that I like this week: Cooper Kupp O119.5 receiving: The Rams are going to be playing to win the game for the reasons I stated above and Kupp can set the single season receiving yards record with 136+ this week. The Rams have been very public about their desire to break the record so I expect that he'll get 15-20 targets tomorrow. Josh Jacobs O59.5 rushing: Jacobs had 15+ carries in each of the Raiders 3 wins over their current winning streak. The Chargers have the 30th ranked run defense in the league and the Raiders have shown a new found commitment to running the ball. Expect to see a big dose of Jacobs early and often. Laquan Treadwell O44.5 receiving: Despite being a complete offensive wasteland this season, Treadwell has actually been extremely consistent over the last month and a half. Over the last 6 weeks Treadwell has had at least 4 receptions/50 yards every game. The Colts are -15 so it's likely going to be a blowout with the Jaguars playing from behind for most of the game, leading to more passing from Lawrence. And if there's one area of weakness for the Colts defense it has been there secondary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) Some additions to the above Sunday card: Diontae Johnson O5.5 catches +100 - I get the Covid concern, but being only 1 day with a positive test, much higher chance this is a false positive. I think it's also why we're not seeing an O6.5 catch prop, so I'll dip my toes in the water here. Mark Andrews O5.5 catches +100 - don't understand the low #, but I'm not going to complain. Since Andrews is healthy, this is worth 2U. Mike Evans O5.5 catches +100 - with Gilmore out, I think Evans gets 8+ targets, maybe 10+ so I'll take the 6+ catch prop. He needs 54+ yards to get the 1000 yard mark and extend his NFL record to 8 seasons, so I think he gets there, but TB12 will need him to get the W to try and secure the 2 seed. Thankfully, BAL-PIT coming available allowed me to come off Jeudy in my 6-leg parley & take Jared Cook out as well (much prefer to have 2 good players who are target hogs), so it's now at +6200 0.5U with Treadwell O43.5 rec yards / Kmet O30.5 rec yards / Diggs O6.5 catches +120 / Diontae Johnson O5.5 catches +100 / Mark Andrews O5.5 catches +100 / Zach Ertz O43.5 rec yards. BOL! Edited January 9, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: I’m tempted to take the Over on Jacobs rushing. 2 hours ago, NYRaider said: Josh Jacobs O59.5 rushing: Jacobs had 15+ carries in each of the Raiders 3 wins over their current winning streak. The Chargers have the 30th ranked run defense in the league and the Raiders have shown a new found commitment to running the ball. Expect to see a big dose of Jacobs early and often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 leg parlay: • Raiders, ML (+139) • Steelers, ML (+160) • Rams, -3.5 (-110) • Alabama, ML (+116) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Tempted to take Justin Herbert U0.5 INT. I know that he has had some issues with picks this season but the Raiders entire defense has 5 INT this year and 3 came in one game. Since the week 6 game against the Broncos their opponents have attempted 314 passes and they've only came up with 1 INT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 With the news SF is likely starting JimmyG, I'm pulling my Lance TD props. I'm going to back it up with a longshot CJ Ham +2800 TD 0.7U instead. Hope for a DPI, and then a FB dive. I do think MIN is not likely to play Cook much if at all, and Ham's work as a pass catching FB leaves the Spider-Y-Banana FB flat pass for a TD at something more than a 3 percent probability in a game where starters may not get as much run on MIN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: With the news SF is likely starting JimmyG, I'm pulling my Lance TD props. I'm going to back it up with a longshot CJ Ham +2800 TD 0.7U instead. Hope for a DPI, and then a FB dive. I do think MIN is not likely to play Cook much if at all, and Ham's work as a pass catching FB leaves the Spider-Y-Banana FB flat pass for a TD at something more than a 3 percent probability in a game where starters may not get as much run on MIN. Going to add Equanamious St. Brown TD +500 (0.6U) and JJ Taylor +1000 TD / +12500 2+ TD (0.6U/0.1U) in the anticipation both get a lot of PT in the 2H. There are no 2+ TD props in GB-DET for Amon-Ra St. Brown, or any rush/rec props, and no Foreman rush props, or SEA-ARI rush props (so no Penny). My Sunday card is now up to date in the OP, BOL! Edited January 9, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: Hope for a DPI, and then a FB dive. I do think MIN is not likely to play Cook much if at all, and Ham's work as a pass catching FB leaves the Spider-Y-Banana FB flat pass for a TD at something more than a 3 percent probability in a game where starters may not get as much run on MIN. I’ve been considering playing the Dalvin rushing Under. Are there any incentives or milestones you’re familiar with regarding him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: I’ve been considering playing the Dalvin rushing Under. Are there any incentives or milestones you’re familiar with regarding him? None that I'm aware of. I'm shocked your book is posting them, I got nothing lol. Edited January 9, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Broncofan said: None that I'm aware of. I'm shocked your book is posting them, I got nothing lol. Ya it’s 82.5 which certainly implies he’s going all 4 Q. Against a defense that he historically struggles against in a meaningless game? Think I have to hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said: Ya it’s 82.5 which certainly implies he’s going all 4 Q. Against a defense that he historically struggles against in a meaningless game? Think I have to hit. YOLO, I'll go there too. Got to have at least 1 under....even though I find unders so tough to watch. But that's how Vegas gets us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Broncofan said: YOLO, I'll go there too. Got to have at least 1 under....even though I find unders so tough to watch. But that's how Vegas gets us. The trick is to not watch them 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12 hours ago, Broncofan said: Mark Andrews O5.5 catches +100 - don't understand the low #, but I'm not going to complain. Since Andrews is healthy, this is worth 2U. I’m on this too but it feels like such a trap. Andrews has hit the Over in all 3 games with Huntley and has reached 10+ catches in 2 of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I have two 5 leg player prop parlay's on underdog today. Parlay 1: Mills O220.5 passing, Cooks O64.5 receiving, Kmet O30.5 receiving, Freiermuth O32.5 receiving, Lawrence O209.5 passing Parlay 2: Kupp O116.5 receiving, Foreman O73.5 rushing, Hertz O43.5 receiving, Mitchell O69.5 rushing, Treadwell O42.5 receiving Placed $25 on each to win $500 a pop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Is Rashad Penny +160 to score a mistake? What am I missing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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