Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

JJ Taylor inactive.  Bet voided.

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Is Rashad Penny +160 to score a mistake? What am I missing?

It's based on fact SEA is the dog, so they don't see as many rushing opps.  It's a solid play.

[SmittyBacall]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's based on fact SEA is the dog, so they don't see as many rushing opps.  It's a solid play.

Took awhile, but it hit. Also double downed at +300 before the half.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Took awhile, but it hit. Also double downed at +300 before the half.

Solid, it's no Juwan Johnson +800 at 1.2U, but pretty close with the doubled down bet.   Winners all around!

[SmittyBacall]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Solid, it's no Juwan Johnson +800 at 1.2U, but pretty close with the doubled down bet.   Winners all around!

I was on that as well, per your slate! 0.5u

Keep it up, man. I feel like I should Venmo you some winnings. You’ve really killed it this year and made my some nice coin.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I was on that as well, per your slate! 0.5u

Keep it up, man. I feel like I should Venmo you some winnings. You’ve really killed it this year and made my some nice coin.

All good, as you can tell I'm doing fine.   We're all just trying to beat the house.    Win together.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Adding to my Steven Anderson TD prop - Tre McKitty +900 TD / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U).    Some TE is scoring a TD vs. the Raiders pass D with Abrams out, hoping it's not Cook (but do want him to get 4+ catches for +150 lol).

Edited January 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 1/8/2022 at 12:24 PM, Broncofan said:

As for Sunday's card, I've got 5 ATS/ML plays, 4 player overs I'm locked in on (not easy to find lol), 3 I'm specifically waiting to take the over unless the number is crazy, and 3 TD props (and one I'm willing to double my usual stake) so far:

ATS/ML/RACE

EARLY

CLE RACE to 20/25 0.5U each (+180/320) - taken before the CIN news) - taken from earlier this week, already covered.  CLE is now -6, so obviously I love those odds.

DET +5 vs. GB (now +4) - Besides DET being ATS beasts, I do think it's highly unlikely GB plays more than 1H.  Everything points to Goff playing, which gave me enough confidence to take the points.  

WFT -7 @ NYG - the only way this goes south is if the WFT O just screws the pooch here.   The NYG O is beyond abysmal.   

LATE

MIA ML +240, RACE to 20/25 0.5U each (+450/+800) vs NE - I'm banking on BB resting his starters at halftime, if BUF is running away with the NYJ game.   We've seen BB be VERY conservative with playing his guys, ever since Wes Welker tore his ACL in the 1Q of a meaningless final game @ HOU.

SNF

LAC -3 @ LV - I get it, the Raiders & Madden at home.   I'm just going with the better QB, and the better-coached team.    

As mentioned, I have a KC -9.5 / PHI +6.5 (now +4) / MIA ML / DET +5 / WFT -7 / LAC -3 for +7200 at 0.5U as well, so I've got 7.5U on the line ATS/ML & RACE wise today/tomorrow.

PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD PROPS

The J-Taylor & Kupp props came in at insane #'s - O115.5 rush yards and O9.5 catches / O107.5 rec yards.   If anything, I'd think about the unders more than the overs, but I'm just going to pass.    Re: Gronk, I'm torn - as I looked and CAR's safeties are both playing, and that is a huge part of their top 5 TE DST - so that's a pass, as much as I think TB12 will try to feed him.

EARLY

Stefon Diggs O6.5 catches +120 2U - we've covered how he needs 6 catches to get his bonus.  We also know BUF has to win here to clinch the AFCE.  So I'm ok risking 2U with him getting to 7.

Laquon Treadwell O46.5 rec yards 2U - In the 6 games since he's become a starter (>80% snap share), he's gone 4+ catches / 53+ yards every time.   I don't see how that changes in a game script that figures to be pass heavy.

EDIT ADDED SAT PM Diontae Johnson O5.5 catches +100 - I'm surprised it's not 7 catches, and while I'm definitely worried about Covid, the negative 1 day later tells me there's a high chance this was a false positive.   So in that event, I'll take a small dip in the water.

EDIT ADDED SAT PM Mark Andrews O5.5 catches +100 2U - I don't get this being this low either, so I'll gladly take this one too.

EDIT ADDED SAT PM Mike Evans O5.5 catches +100 - Evans is the last of the big 3 WR left, and with no Gilmore, I expect 10+ targets, so I'll take 6+ catches.   With him needed 54 yards to break 1000 for the 8th straight season (an NFL record), I expect we'll see him get there - but the O71.5 yards IMO is equally do-able, but I like the +100 with O5.5, and hope he doesn't 5/80+ and make me regret that choice lol.

 

D'onta Foreman O??? yards (PENDING) - @NYRaider has a line of 70.5 yards, but I suspect it won't be officially out on my book until the inactives are confirmed, given Derek Henry's status (they'd be crazy to play him IMO).

Amon-Ra St. Brown O??? catches (PENDING) - honestly, if it's 6.5, I might still bite (but will have to be mega plus-money).    Goff will use him as the security blanket, so I love the catches more than the yards.

 

LATE

Zach Ertz O43.5 rec yards 2U - SEA's got the worst TE pass D, this is super easy.   If the catch prop is O4.5 like it's been for plus money, I'll probably add 2U there too.

Rashad Penny O???? rush yards (PENDING) - no mystery here, I don't expect JJ Watt to play much, let alone be active...so the ARI run D can be exploited.    Pete Carroll will definitely lean on the run game, and he goes all out to win each week (no playing backups to "get a look" here, there aren't any worth it regardless). 

SNF

Jared Cook O3.5 catches +150 - if this was even money, I'd pass.  But I can't ignore how much the LV pass D allows TE's to thrive - averaging almost 7 catches a game.   Cook went 6/70 last time, and with no Donald Parham, it's still Cook as the main guy.   It's just that he's so clearly declining, but I can't ignore the matchup and past history.   Still, I prefer players who are ascending, which is why I'll only go 1U (but I will include it in the parley, to allow a hedge if the other 5 hit).

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Juwan Johnson +800 / +11000 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) - he's back to playing the move TE role, and lost in last week's game - got 2/3 RZ targets (Callaway got the other).   Much like Donald Parham, he's a guy the Saints look for as they get close, they design plays specifically for him.   He's definitely my favorite long-shot TD play this week, so I'm doubling up on my usual stake here.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM CJ Ham +2800 TD (0.7U) - with very little to play for, and Cook banged up, I expect less work, which opens up short-yardage situations for Ham to score.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM JJ Taylor +1000 TD / +12500 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - Damien Harris hurting, and Pats often rest guys once there's nothing to play for.  If BUF gets up a lot, then I expect a lot more Taylor. These odds are just too good.    

EDIT ADDED SUN AM Equanamious St-Brown +500 TD (0.6U) - very restricted prop slate, but this is one that stands out.   I expect him to get the most targets if the starters all go.   

Rashad Higgins / CLE TE (+600 or better - PENDING) - CIN's really vulnerable vs. the TE, and Higgins gets more RZ looks than Landry or DPJ.   He almost hit last 2 games at +700, I hope the line stays that high.    Waiting here.

LATE

Trey Lance +4000 / +5000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - if JimmyG is active, I'll pull this one.  But if it's Lance starting, then the RPO run gives LAR run D trouble, and I expect this should be more like a +250 prop. 

 

SNF

Steven Anderson +600 / +7500 2+ (now +500 / +6000 - 0.6U / 0.1U) - LV's vulnerable against the TE, and LAC still dials up at least 1-2 looks that way (it wasn't open, Anderson isn't as athletic as Parham).   Worth a sniff

So that's 10U on 7 player props, willing to put 5U more (Foreman, St-Brown & Penny, and willing to double up on O4.5 Ertz catches if it's +money).   I have 5U on Johnson / Lance / Anderson (EDIT SUN AM:  added ESB/Ham/JJ Taylor) TD props, and willing to add CLE TE's / Higgins if the odds are good (Keenum is meh, but he's actually 10x better than Bad Baker right now).   I've also put a 0.5U parley on Andrews O5.5 +100 / Diontae J 5.5 +100 / Diggs O6.5 catches +120 / Treadwell O46.5 rec yards / Ertz O43.5 rec yards  at +8500 as well, so hoping concentrating my plays in Week 18 pays off (EDIT: Took Jeudy off before once I had Andrews / Diontae J).      Either way, that's 13.5U in player/TD props so far.

EDIT:  I'm at -4U for SatNF, so with 21U on Sunday's card (including the 0.5U player prop parley), hoping to see if we can end the regular season in the black.  BOL!

 

Also had Dalvin Cook U82.5 rush yards after talking it over with @SaveOurSonics

Man, I was a 2nd Juwan Johnson TD or Laquon Treadwell O46.5 yards from absolutely HAMMERING today's slate, but I won't say no to a nice 20U+ profit day.....the Sunday tally so far with Anderson/McKitty TD props, Jared Cook O3.5 catches +150 and LAC -3 still pending for 3.5U....

ATS/ML/RACE

4-1 with LAC -3 losing, and 2-0 RACE with every race hitting on MIA/CLE, so that's a massive +12.1U profit from ATS/ML & RACE alone.   And honestly, all of them were super easy W's too.

 

PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Player Props - 7-1.  The only L from the early slate was Laquon Treadwell O46.5 rec yards 2U prop (who say JAX winning by 3+ scores???) - Stefon Diggs +120 2U, Diontae Johnson O5.5, Mark Andrews O5.5 & Mike Evans O5.5 & Dalvin Cook U82.5 rush yards all hit, and then in the late slate, Zach Ertz O43.5U 2U hits easily, followed by Jared Cook O3.5 catches +150.   The crazy part is that I couldn't get Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashad Penny & Foreman props because they weren't offered by my book - pretty sure I would have won all 3 of those 2.   Treadwell also prevents me from hitting the 6-leg +6200 parley 0.5U (doh!) - but it's still a 7.4U profit for the player props.

Longshot TD Props - 1-4 (JJ Taylor voided, Steven Anderson +600/+8000 2+ 0.6U/0.1U & Tre McKitty +900/+11000 2+ 0.6U/0.1U pending) - only needed to hit 1, given it was my strong 1.2U play Juwan Johnson +800, so even though the other 2 lost (along with the 2TD Johnson prop), it's still a massive 7.5U profit.

So even though I lost 4U on SatNF (pretty much KC-DEN and the 6-leg parley), Week 18 ) now has a 23.0U profit.    What a great weekend - KC pulls out the W, Fangio gets fired, and DEN ends up with the 1.9 pick - and I net a 20U+ profit this weekend, and locking in a 200U+ regular season.   Amazing day - other than Treadwell's prop hitting, I couldn't really ask for more.   

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 17 NOT INCLUDING SNF/MNF 

ATS 59-46; 16-19 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +129.4U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 163-155, +35.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +42.4U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +207.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U)

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Broncofan
Added SNF results, win with Cook +150 hitting, but no TD props and LAC -3 missing - but what a game, so -1U - totals adjusted lol

[SaveOurSonics]

Great day today. Tailed several of the picks here which clearly paid off for a few of us. 

 

THuntley O40.5 Rushing 2U ✅

ASt.Brown O66.5 Receiving ✅

DCook U82.5 Rushing ✅

MAndrews O5.5 Receptions ✅

DForeman O69.5 Rushing ❌ - GUT WRENCHING. He reached 71 yards. Got another carry on the Titans final drive for -2 yards. Didn't see another touch. 

TLawrence U210 Passing ❌ - Jags took some money from all of us it would seem. 

MJones U49.5 Receiving ❌

TLockett O56.5 Receiving ✅

DMetcalf O55.5 Receiving ✅

JJacobs O61.5 Rushing ✅

AEkeler O30.5 Receiving ✅

JJackson U25.5 Rushing ✅

Ravens O1.5 FGs (-140) ✅

Ravens to win by 1-13 (+135) ❌

Saints to win by 1-13 (+150) ✅

Chiefs-3 / WFT U45 / BAL U49 Teaser (+130) 3U ✅

SF U52 / MIN U52 / TEN U50 Teaser (+130) 2U ❌

CIN U45 / BAL+4.5 / TEN-2.5 Teaser (+120) 2U ✅

Seahawks O26.5 TT (Live halftime bet) 2U ✅

 

I also lost another 12-leg 7-point teaser that would've paid $800 on a $25 bet on the same TEN U50 that killed that Teaser above. Brutal to watch the Texans offense move the ball at will in the 2nd half. The final legs on it were LVR +10 / LVR O41 which both hit easy. 

That's 9-3 on props for +7U (Huntley 2U play easily hits). 2-0 on FG plays this week (also had Chiefs O1.5 FGs) for +2U (+1U today). Lose Ravens by 1-13, but a garbage time Falcons TD saves the Saints +money play for +0.5U. 2-1 on Teasers for +3.5U. Seahawks had 17 at halftime, so a 9.5 2H O/U felt like easy money with the way Penny was running and Wilson was throwing, for another +2U.

 

That's +14U total on the day. Good stuff fellas. 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by SaveOurSonics

[NYRaider]

On 1/8/2022 at 3:22 AM, NYRaider said:

Assuming that Waller/Jacobs play Sunday, I love the Raiders, ML this week.

Bing, bong

[SmittyBacall]

Favourite future bets for the AFC/NFC Champions and SB?

I have GB and BUF winning their respective conference. Both parlayed comes in at +1034. I think I will be laying a unit here. 

[SaveOurSonics]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Favourite future bets for the AFC/NFC Champions and SB?

I have GB and BUF winning their respective conference. Both parlayed comes in at +1034. I think I will be laying a unit here. 

With Tampa banged up, Dallas struggling against good teams, and the NFCW inconsistencies, I really like Green Bay to win the NFC. 

Not sure who I’d favor out of the AFC as of right now, but I of course like the Bills as a top contender. I can’t see any of New England, Vegas, or Pittsburgh making it through. That whittles it down to a 4-team race. I think I’d actually rank it Buffalo, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and then KC. All three of those teams have confidence they can outplay KC and I think all of those offenses are in a better rhythm heading into the postseason. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Any thoughts in here on Nat Championship? 
 

I currently have Young Rushing O16.5, Brooks Receiving O46.5, and Bowers Receiving O70.5. 
 

I really want to take Bama ML but I can’t shake recent trends from my brain. Teams that rematch off a loss in the postseason are 15-7 in the makeup game, including 9 straight wins and 2-0 in Championship rematches.

That said, it’s not often you get Bama, Saban, AND a Heisman QB as underdogs. 

[Titans_Matt]

I had the Texans under 4.5 wins and Falcons under 7.5 wins futures out for a lot of money. Yesterday was quite stressful haha with those winnings I'm doing a 4 team, 13 point teaser. Alabama+16, 49ers +16, Chiefs ML, and over 36 in Bucs/Eagles game. Feel pretty good about it!

[NYRaider]

One of the early lines that I like for the Saturday slate: 

• Joe Burrow U273.5 passing: He's dealing with an injury, the game will be played in the snow (IIRC, Burrow's first snow game), and Burrow only had like 130 passing yards when we played in Vegas earlier this season.