Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

I will wait to see what the line comes out at, but one prop I expect to hammer this week will be Gronks yardage total.

The eagles are bad against TEs. Their LBs are a big weakness for them. Brady loves to go to Gronk in the playoffs and in crucial moments

Hoping its in the 50 yards range, but it may be in the low 60s and that is OK

 

Niners are a great teaser leg this week. +9/10 (you can get 10 with a 7 point teaser) is pretty great. Niners will run the ball early and often so I will look to mitchell and deebo's rushing totals depending on what they are. Brandon Aiyuk is cooking right now and his yardage props tend to be in the mid 40 yard range, which is very low considering his yards per reception is 14 and teams cant afford to keep their safeties deep considering how frequently the niners run the ball. So Aiyuk gets a lot of field to work with and is a very good route runner. Thats 2-3 catches for him and he gets a lot of YAC too.

I am also eyeing the under in the KC/PIT game. Ben is cooked and his ypa is pretty pathetic. Their OL is not good. KCs defense is pretty stout and is playing like a cohesive unit. Tyreek is hurt, who knows how much he will play. Kelce is banged up. Their weapons outside of those two leave a lot to be desired. Steelers D is stout and they wont make it easy on the chiefs. They will keep everything in front of them and they will be physical with the KC WRs at times as well. Steelers will try and run the ball and that will chew clock.

[NYRaider]

22 hours ago, N4L said:

I will wait to see what the line comes out at, but one prop I expect to hammer this week will be Gronks yardage total.

The eagles are bad against TEs. Their LBs are a big weakness for them. Brady loves to go to Gronk in the playoffs and in crucial moments

Hoping its in the 50 yards range, but it may be in the low 60s and that is OK

Niners are a great teaser leg this week. +9/10 (you can get 10 with a 7 point teaser) is pretty great. Niners will run the ball early and often so I will look to mitchell and deebo's rushing totals depending on what they are. Brandon Aiyuk is cooking right now and his yardage props tend to be in the mid 40 yard range, which is very low considering his yards per reception is 14 and teams cant afford to keep their safeties deep considering how frequently the niners run the ball. So Aiyuk gets a lot of field to work with and is a very good route runner. Thats 2-3 catches for him and he gets a lot of YAC too.

I am also eyeing the under in the KC/PIT game. Ben is cooked and his ypa is pretty pathetic. Their OL is not good. KCs defense is pretty stout and is playing like a cohesive unit. Tyreek is hurt, who knows how much he will play. Kelce is banged up. Their weapons outside of those two leave a lot to be desired. Steelers D is stout and they wont make it easy on the chiefs. They will keep everything in front of them and they will be physical with the KC WRs at times as well. Steelers will try and run the ball and that will chew clock.

Yeah good call on Gronk, when they played earlier in the season OJ Howard had a really strong performance. 

I'm actually considering the 49ers, ML this weekend. The Cowboys haven't beaten a playoff team with their good players playing since week 5. And their run defense has been pretty brutal down the stretch of the season. 

Didn't KC just beat them by like 30 without Hill or Kelce?

ETA: Just saw you were referring to the O/U, my bookie has it at 46.5 rn, good call.

Edited January 12, 2022 by NYRaider

[SaveOurSonics]

18 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Any thoughts in here on Nat Championship? 
 

I currently have Young Rushing O16.5, Brooks Receiving O46.5, and Bowers Receiving O70.5. 
 

I really want to take Bama ML but I can’t shake recent trends from my brain. Teams that rematch off a loss in the postseason are 15-7 in the makeup game, including 9 straight wins and 2-0 in Championship rematches.

That said, it’s not often you get Bama, Saban, AND a Heisman QB as underdogs. 

0-4. Ended up convincing myself to take Bama +3. Guess I should’ve stayed out of this one 😅

[SaveOurSonics]

9 hours ago, N4L said:

I will wait to see what the line comes out at, but one prop I expect to hammer this week will be Gronks yardage total

Don’t think you’ll get it nearly as low as you’re expecting. He’s gone over 100 in his last two games and books are cognizant of how bad Philly’s defense is up the middle. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be interested in playing it, but I’m expecting it to be high 70s / low 80s. Do we still love it in the 80s? 

[SaveOurSonics]

9 hours ago, N4L said:

Niners are a great teaser leg this week. +9/10

 

9 hours ago, N4L said:

I am also eyeing the under in the KC/PIT game.

I like both of these plays. How did your teasers do this past week? 

 

 

[N4L]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I like both of these plays. How did your teasers do this past week? 

I will typically do two leg teasers in a round robin

Last week I had the under 47 in NO/ATL, which lost on a last minute, garbage time touchdown. I was not expecting the NO offense to score 30 points. They benefitted from a turnover on the ATL side of the field late in the second quarter, and the pace they played with was surprising to me. I thought they would have ran the ball a lot with Hill but siemen came in and was slinging the ball around the field. 

SF +10 won 

KC -4 pushed - got lucky here, but somehow I cant shake the idea that if KC doesnt rough the punter in the first quarter, they win by double digits. Didnt realize my book had pushes on teasers where the other legs won as pushes, but oh well. 

not posted in the thread but were last minute additions to my bets on sunday after some saturday film:

Washington - NYG O is crap and washington is the type of team to show up and play hard even with nothing on the line

seattle +12 - as broncofan said, penny was on a tear and arizona is vulnrable on the ground without watt

 

took a shot on a four leg teaser with DET, WSH, SEA, SF

Pushed a teaser with LAC+3 and the over

[NYRaider]

Underdog has a special on their player props where you can include Stefon Diggs O/U 1 receiving yard in a player prop parlay but the maximum bet is $25 to win $500.

Took:

• Stefon Diggs: O1.0 receiving

• Darren Waller: O50.5 receiving

• Josh Allen: O274.5 total yards

• Deebo Samuel: O85.5 total yards

• Tyreek Hill: U79.5 receiving yards

[NYRaider]

13 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Don’t think you’ll get it nearly as low as you’re expecting. He’s gone over 100 in his last two games and books are cognizant of how bad Philly’s defense is up the middle. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be interested in playing it, but I’m expecting it to be high 70s / low 80s. Do we still love it in the 80s? 

One of my bookies currently has it at 71.5.

[NYRaider]

Thoughts on the Rams - Cardinals?

The Cardinals are 6-0 SU as underdogs this season.

[NYRaider]

Laid $100 on a 4 leg parlay:

Raiders, ML (+198)

49ers, ML (+135)

Cardinals, ML (+168)

Bills, -4 (-110)

[NYRaider]

On 1/9/2022 at 9:48 AM, NYRaider said:

I have two 5 leg player prop parlay's on underdog today.

Parlay 1: Mills O220.5 passing, Cooks O64.5 receiving, Kmet O30.5 receiving, Freiermuth O32.5 receiving, Lawrence O209.5 passing

Would've hit if Cooks didn't get injured early in the game sadly.

[agarcia34]

Placed my bet on 49ers +3 always scary laying your money on Jimmy G. Couldn’t have a more lopsided battle with the coaching. I am scared if the 49ers DL can’t get to Dak cause those targets do have such a advantage over the 49ers secondary. Love the under in the game as well. Will wait to see if it goes up on Sunday before betting it.

Also played the under 49 in Bengals/Raiders. 

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Thoughts on the Rams - Cardinals?

The Cardinals are 6-0 SU as underdogs this season.

Other than Dallas, when was ARI a dog?   Reason why I ask is the run D with a fully healthy JJ Watt and the O with Nuk Hopkins it was a completely different team.   If their other 5 games were pre-injuries to Watt / Hopkins need to take that into context.  
 

If ppl want to take the pts or under in a 3rd matchup I’d definitely back.  Straight up harder if it was alll pre-Watt / Hopkins injuries.  

[NYRaider]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Other than Dallas, when was ARI a dog?   Reason why I ask is the run D with a fully healthy JJ Watt and the O with Nuk Hopkins it was a completely different team.   If their other 5 games were pre-injuries to Watt / Hopkins need to take that into context.  
 

If ppl want to take the pts or under in a 3rd matchup I’d definitely back.  Straight up harder if it was alll pre-Watt / Hopkins injuries.  

They were underdogs against the Titans, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Seahawks, and Cowboys.

[Broncofan]

Player props that are already out that I'm diving in now:

SAT

Joe Mixon O18.5 receiving yards - I know, he didn't have any last time - but it was a lopsided game from early in 2Q/3Q.    I expect the Raiders to play much better, and that means CIN has to be more balanced, and also needs to keep LV's EDGE's from terrorizing Burrow.  The easiest way - use Mixon in the pass game.   Again, 1 play could get this.

Damien Harris O56.5 rush yards 2U - yes, I get that it was a big chunk play that got him the yards @ BUF.   Doesn't matter, though - BB is going to be very persistent with the run.  I estimate 70+ yards for Harris, so easy to take this now, and that's before I even know how Rhamondre Stephenson is doing.

SUN

Rob Gronkowski O5.5 catches +115 2U - not adding anything new here, can't believe I'm getting +money for 6+ catches against PHI's D

Clyde Edwards-Helaire O41.5 rush yards 2U - unless CEH gets hurt again, he might get this by the 1H.   Easy 2U play given what PIT is likely going to play (don't let KC beat them deep).

Pat Friermuth O31.5 rec yards - this is easy, KC lets the outlet guys get theirs, and that's Friermuth.  Will consider a 2nd U if Sat goes well.

Deebo Samuel O28.5 rush yards - DAL's D is way easier to attack with the run than the pass, and there's zero doubt IMO that SF will want to limit JimmyG's risk for picks - so that means more Deebo carries.   That total is low enough, only 1 play could do it.  I feel a lot better about this than the rec yards total, because of how Deebo's deployed, this IMO is far more predictable.

MNF

Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards - ARI will no doubt try to take away Kupp, which leaves OBJ as the #2 target.   I actually think Van Jefferson should be used more - but Stafford really zeros in on OBJ.   Last time, it was 6/90.   I'll take this easily.

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Isaiah McKenzie +700 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - I know, I know - Beasley's back.  But Mckenzie's been far more effective, and still got about 35-40 percent of the snaps while Beasley sat.   For the mismatches he provides, I think this should be more like +400, so I'll take a stab.

Antoine Wesley +550 / +7000 2+ (1.1U/0.2U) - I can't believe it's still this high, as it's very clear he's their RZ big body target.   Worth taking a bit of a bigger stab here.

 

Props not out I'd love to take but aren't out yet:

Zach Ertz catches - they don't necessarily give up big chunk plays - but the LAR D gives up a lot of catches, relative to the player.   I'm guessing the O will be 4.5 or 5.5, and I'm all over that target number.

Devonta Smith yards - you beat TAM with the big plays.   Smith is the guy who can win 1-on-1.

I'm going to do a 6-leg with Mixon/Harris/Gronk/CEH/Friermuth/Deebo for +5500, and a 7-leg with all the above for +11000  (I might sub out 1 for Ertz if I can get that prop soon enough), both for 0.5U each, and I have a +1400

 

I also have a 1U Georgia -2.5 (Won obv) / CIN -6 (LV playing on Sat was not nice by the schedulers at all) / PHI +8.5 (TAM W's, PHI covers) / DAL -3 (just can't take JimmyG, but if there's one play that sinks me, it's this one) / PIT +13.5 (same as PHI) / LAR -4 parley, couldn't decide on NE/BUF for +4800 - so that's 14.0U in play so far, and likely 2 more plays above.    I think the line on ALL of the guys above are going to move up, so getting them now.  BOL!

Edited January 13, 2022 by Broncofan