Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, NYRaider said:

They were underdogs against the Titans, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Seahawks, and Cowboys.

I took LAR -4 earlier this week, mainly because I just don't think ARI's run D and coverage can keep up without a healthy Watt (great story he's back, no confidence he'll be close to OK).   And the O is just a mess right now without Nuk there.   

But I can also see that if you're taking ARI, you might as well take the ML - in a close game, I don't think they'll win, but if they can induce Stafford into 2+ TO's, then the LAR D struggles with playing catchup against teams who will just run it down their throats.    I lean to LAR, but I also don't like their odds ML-wise, either.   This is one of the 3 games I'm having a tough time coming with the winner (but I see a LAR win being 7+ points if it happens, because it forces more bad situations for Kyler).

I do think CIN (that quick turnaround and those injuries to the D are just mounting for LV), TAM & KC all win - but I don't like the points the latter 2 teams are giving up.  I do think BUF beats NE, but I hate that -4 line in a BB playoff game, so staying away.  In the ARI-LAR game, I see a win by either team by 7+ pts.   

As for SF-DAL, I just hate putting $ on JimmyG these days, and against an opportunistic D like DAL, that's a bridge too far (and also why I think Deebo gets a ton of safe touches, ie runs).

Edited January 13, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 1/10/2022 at 9:17 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Favourite future bets for the AFC/NFC Champions and SB?

I have GB and BUF winning their respective conference. Both parlayed comes in at +1034. I think I will be laying a unit here. 

I already put 2U on TEN +1400, and I figured that either CIN/BUF were likely going to be playing them.   So I took Georgia -2.5 / CHA NBA ML +120 / PHI NBA -6.5 & added SB props on CIN/SF & 1U plays on BUF/LAR/DAL with that 3-leg play (using the $$ from the reg season, i figured I could play with 10U on Monday).   I also took the 3-leg play for 2U and both single bets, so Monday was a great night lol - now it puts me in play.

The end result - I've got 6U worth of tickets on TEN for 28U, CIN & BUF for 40U each now - basically playing the field against KC in the AFC.   PIT, NE & LV, I just don't see them making long runs.   For the NFC, I now have DAL/SF/LAR for 40U - again, I'm playing the field against TAM & GB.   I don't see PHI or ARI as able to make long runs because of the gaps in their roster.   

As someone who backed TAM hard last year and made a TON of $$ (from start to finish, I made over 100U with their playoff run), it's nothing personal - but their WR injuries and their holes on D, I just don't see them being overcome.  GB/KC are deservedly seen as favorites, but the odds don't represent much value.   If it comes down to the NFCG/AFCG against 1 of my 3 teams then I'm going to hedge them like crazy lol.  

 

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I already put 2U on TEN +1400, and I figured that either CIN/BUF were likely going to be playing them.   So I took Georgia -2.5 / CHA NBA ML +120 / PHI NBA -6.5 & added SB props on CIN/SF & 1U plays on BUF/LAR/DAL with that 3-leg play (using the $$ from the reg season, i figured I could play with 10U on Monday).   I also took the 3-leg play for 2U and both single bets, so Monday was a great night lol - now it puts me in play.

The end result - I've got 6U worth of tickets on TEN for 28U, CIN & BUF for 40U each now - basically playing the field against KC in the AFC.   PIT, NE & LV, I just don't see them making long runs.   For the NFC, I now have DAL/SF/LAR for 40U - again, I'm playing the field against TAM & GB.   I don't see PHI or ARI as able to make long runs because of the gaps in their roster.   

As someone who backed TAM hard last year and made a TON of $$ (from start to finish, I made over 100U with their playoff run), it's nothing personal - but their WR injuries and their holes on D, I just don't see them being overcome.  GB/KC are deservedly seen as favorites, but the odds don't represent much value.   If it comes down to the NFCG/AFCG against 1 of my 3 teams then I'm going to hedge them like crazy lol.  

 

 

It’s difficult for me to envision the Packers not representing the NFC, so I’m going to invest some coin on that premise. The Bucs are reeling with injuries/AB, the Cowboys and Rams have been off lately and have tough roads, and I don’t trust the other teams to make a push. They’re also getting Zadarius and Bahktiari back, which is just icing on the cake.

I’m going to scattershot GB winning the NFC (+160) parlayed with TEN (+300, total +940), BUF (+350, total +1070), and CIN (+900, total +2500). I guess I should throw KC in their too, though for some reason I don’t feel as confident in them this year. Thoughts?

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

It’s difficult for me to envision the Packers not representing the NFC, so I’m going to invest some coin on that premise. The Bucs are reeling with injuries/AB, the Cowboys and Rams have been off lately and have tough roads, and I don’t trust the other teams to make a push. They’re also getting Zadarius and Bahktiari back, which is just icing on the cake.

I’m going to scattershot GB winning the NFC (+160) parlayed with TEN (+300, total +940), BUF (+350, total +1070), and CIN (+900, total +2500). I guess I should throw KC in their too, though for some reason I don’t feel as confident in them this year. Thoughts?

If you're trying to get parleys in, then yes, I would take GB as the foundation.    It's the highest probability.   

I'm attacking the single team side, in which case if you can ID the most likely teams in "the field", IMO that's where the leverage is.   Realizing if the bet could be "favorite vs. the field", you'd be better off going with the field - but with parleys, it gets pretty iffy to take the long odds teams, unless you're locked in on 1 team.   The benefit of my approach is that by combining it with other parleys that have hit - I have the mega-hit available, and that allows for in-game hedges vs. GB/KC.

Re: KC, my problem with them is with Hill banged up, they're a much more limited O.  And we know the D is really good as a leader, but they can be worn down in the run game.    They deserve to have the lowest odds, but this year, BUF/CIN/TEN all have paths to beat them that are much clearer than last year.   Now, with LV & PIT replacing LAC & IND, there are fewer teams I can say that about - but that also makes it easier to concentrate where I bet the field.   

Last year, fading the favorite IMO came down to TAM in the NFC (and I really thought they were the most balanced team in the field, and only needed to find a way to beat NO).    I had BUF in the AFC.  Those were the only 2 teams I took pre-playoffs at longer odds, and obv it paid off.   This year, I have 3 teams in the AFC where I really do like their chances in a single game (BUF/CIN/TEN), esp. for their odds now (CIN/TEN).   NFC, I'm not sold on any 1 team, but I'm trying to pick the most likely teams who could upset GB - so that's the DAL/SF winner, and LAR.   ARI's injuries just have created so many holes to who they were in the 1H, and I covered why I don't see TAM being that team.  

That's the reasoning for the TAM/GB & KC fades for single-bets - but if you want to do parleys, then yes, I'd go GB.   The nice part of your method is that if 2 of your 3 AFC teams make it to the finals, then you can also hedge the GB opponent at +money if it's GB-whoever.      For single-team bets, gotta do it now, which is why I went with 4-leg to lower the $ risked, and widen the field (and would have done this daily for 3-4 days, if they all missed, I'd have just taken it as a sign it's not my year lol). 

 

[Shanedorf]

From Sharp Football:

Cold Weather Impact on NFL Games: Should You Bet the Over or Under ?

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/cold-weather-impact-sports-betting-nfl-games-over-under/

 

[SaveOurSonics]

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Devonta Smith yards - you beat TAM with the big plays.   Smith is the guy who can win 1-on-1.

I hit this at O41.5 fwiw. 

[SaveOurSonics]

On 1/11/2022 at 11:10 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

Don’t think you’ll get it nearly as low as you’re expecting. He’s gone over 100 in his last two games and books are cognizant of how bad Philly’s defense is up the middle. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be interested in playing it, but I’m expecting it to be high 70s / low 80s. Do we still love it in the 80s? 

I couldn’t have been more wrong. I hit it at O58.5. 

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I hit this at O41.5 fwiw. 

Wow.  With CEH missing practice out goes that one in goes Devonta to the single bets and parleys.  

[SmittyBacall]

For those that believe in a Bengals playoff run and want a nice value long-shot, Tee Higgins is +2500 to lead the playoffs in receiving yards.

Higgins was 3rd in the NFL for most receiving yards since Week 12 (was nursing a shoulder injury, now healthy). Also, Chase will be the focus of double teams, as teams will learn their lesson from KC game. Chase is +1400, which is also good value. I’ll be sprinkling 0.5u on both, as well as Davante Adams +1000 (even with the bye). 

The rest of the field is meh.

[SaveOurSonics]

@N4L Curious if you share my feelings on Eli Mitchell O19.5 Carries at +100. 

 

He's had 20+ carries in each of his last 5 starts, which have included wins, losses, under 40 points, over 55 points, against playoff teams, and non-playoff teams, regardless of how much Deebo runs. My point is, he's a focal point of this offense regardless of script and opponent. With the return of Trent Williams + the Cowboys #1 ranked DVOA pass defense, I'm expecting Shanahan to come out with a conservative run-heavy game plan to avoid costly turnovers against this opportunistic defense. This is currently getting juiced on the Under (-130) which I can only assume is because the 49ers are underdogs and bettors are expecting a negative game script. I say that doesn't matter unless the 9ers are down double digits late. 

[N4L]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

@N4L Curious if you share my feelings on Eli Mitchell O19.5 Carries at +100. 

 

He's had 20+ carries in each of his last 5 starts, which have included wins, losses, under 40 points, over 55 points, against playoff teams, and non-playoff teams, regardless of how much Deebo runs. My point is, he's a focal point of this offense regardless of script and opponent. With the return of Trent Williams + the Cowboys #1 ranked DVOA pass defense, I'm expecting Shanahan to come out with a conservative run-heavy game plan to avoid costly turnovers against this opportunistic defense. This is currently getting juiced on the Under (-130) which I can only assume is because the 49ers are underdogs and bettors are expecting a negative game script. I say that doesn't matter unless the 9ers are down double digits late. 

This is a great bet. Kyle uses him like a bellcow and has great confidence in his ability to gain more yards than is blocked, which is justified based on this tweet: 

Mitchell gets elite usage. When he is healthy, he gets a ton of touches, even against 8 man fronts. 

The only thing that is working against him is that he is banged up, he will play, but he's been battling injuries for a few weeks now. So maybe that is why it's juiced to the under. 

The niners always try and have 30+ carries. Deebo won't get more than 10 of those, and we don't give any carries to either of our backup RBs. Kyle won't want to give Jimmy too many opportunities to turn the ball over against the opportunistic defense, so Mitchell will get his work. 

He could have 15 carries in the first half alone lol 

[N4L]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I couldn’t have been more wrong. I hit it at O58.5. 

HAMMER TIME 

[Broncofan]

With news he's going to play, Tee Higgins O65.5 rec yards has been released.   Definitely worth a play.

[JonStark]

No one worried about the weather in TB this week? Could be really difficult to throw the ball. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, JonStark said:

No one worried about the weather in TB this week? Could be really difficult to throw the ball. 

I think it's why the totals are so low.   In that situation though, I then concentrate on the target hogs.    For PHI, it's Goedert & Smith, for TAM, it's Gronk & Evans.    Given how bad PHI is, I'm still very confident on Gronk.   Smith is more of a concern, but O41.5 is just so low.