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Weekly Bets Thread


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4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think it's why the totals are so low.   In that situation though, I then concentrate on the target hogs.    For PHI, it's Goedert & Smith, for TAM, it's Gronk & Evans.    Given how bad PHI is, I'm still very confident on Gronk.   Smith is more of a concern, but O41.5 is just so low.

Brady's pass yards are set to 279.5. I love the under there if the weather is as bad as expected (currently sits at 90-100% chance of rain). 

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28 minutes ago, JonStark said:

Brady's pass yards are set to 279.5. I love the under there if the weather is as bad as expected (currently sits at 90-100% chance of rain). 

Yeah, to be clear, both Evans and Gronk could hit their overs comfortably, and TB12 might not sniff 250.    With AB & Godwin out, both Evans and Gronk should see 20%+ target shares, though, which is why I'm very comfortable about 6+ catches for Gronk.

BTW, it's not just the rain - it's the 17MPH winds.   When the winds hit 15+ MPH, it's a big impediment to scoring (and by extension, yardage).   As @Shanedorf referenced with the Sharp article - wind is a bigger factor than cold, or in this case, rain.

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On 1/12/2022 at 11:12 PM, Broncofan said:

Player props that are already out that I'm diving in now:

SAT

Joe Mixon O18.5 receiving yards - I know, he didn't have any last time - but it was a lopsided game from early in 2Q/3Q.    I expect the Raiders to play much better, and that means CIN has to be more balanced, and also needs to keep LV's EDGE's from terrorizing Burrow.  The easiest way - use Mixon in the pass game.   Again, 1 play could get this.

Damien Harris O56.5 rush yards 2U - yes, I get that it was a big chunk play that got him the yards @ BUF.   Doesn't matter, though - BB is going to be very persistent with the run.  I estimate 70+ yards for Harris, so easy to take this now, and that's before I even know how Rhamondre Stephenson is doing.

SUN

Rob Gronkowski O5.5 catches +115 2U - not adding anything new here, can't believe I'm getting +money for 6+ catches against PHI's D

Clyde Edwards-Helaire O41.5 rush yards 2U - unless CEH gets hurt again, he might get this by the 1H.   Easy 2U play given what PIT is likely going to play (don't let KC beat them deep).

Pat Friermuth O31.5 rec yards - this is easy, KC lets the outlet guys get theirs, and that's Friermuth.  Will consider a 2nd U if Sat goes well.

Deebo Samuel O28.5 rush yards - DAL's D is way easier to attack with the run than the pass, and there's zero doubt IMO that SF will want to limit JimmyG's risk for picks - so that means more Deebo carries.   That total is low enough, only 1 play could do it.  I feel a lot better about this than the rec yards total, because of how Deebo's deployed, this IMO is far more predictable.

MNF

Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards - ARI will no doubt try to take away Kupp, which leaves OBJ as the #2 target.   I actually think Van Jefferson should be used more - but Stafford really zeros in on OBJ.   Last time, it was 6/90.   I'll take this easily.

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Isaiah McKenzie +700 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - I know, I know - Beasley's back.  But Mckenzie's been far more effective, and still got about 35-40 percent of the snaps while Beasley sat.   For the mismatches he provides, I think this should be more like +400, so I'll take a stab.

Antoine Wesley +550 / +7000 2+ (1.1U/0.2U) - I can't believe it's still this high, as it's very clear he's their RZ big body target.   Worth taking a bit of a bigger stab here.

 

Props not out I'd love to take but aren't out yet:

Zach Ertz catches - they don't necessarily give up big chunk plays - but the LAR D gives up a lot of catches, relative to the player.   I'm guessing the O will be 4.5 or 5.5, and I'm all over that target number.

Devonta Smith yards - you beat TAM with the big plays.   Smith is the guy who can win 1-on-1.

I'm going to do a 6-leg with Mixon/Harris/Gronk/CEH/Friermuth/Deebo for +5500, and a 7-leg with all the above for +11000  (I might sub out 1 for Ertz if I can get that prop soon enough), both for 0.5U each, and I have a +1400

 

I also have a 1U Georgia -2.5 (Won obv) / CIN -6 (LV playing on Sat was not nice by the schedulers at all) / PHI +8.5 (TAM W's, PHI covers) / DAL -3 (just can't take JimmyG, but if there's one play that sinks me, it's this one) / PIT +13.5 (same as PHI) / LAR -4 parley, couldn't decide on NE/BUF for +4800 - so that's 14.0U in play so far, and likely 2 more plays above.    I think the line on ALL of the guys above are going to move up, so getting them now.  BOL!

 

 

Sadly with news that CEH downgraded to a missed practice yesterday, I'm going to have to remove him from the parley and single bets, and I suspect I'm doing the same with Damien Harris single-bet & parley-wise.   I've also found better plays that I like in my 6-leg parley, and because of the Harris/CEH news, the books have taken those lines down, and voided my parley bets (since if 1 leg voids, the whole parley voids).

So I've added 5 more player prop plays that have finally come out, 1 discussed previously, but the others are worth mentioning, 1 more TD play, and a revised set of odds with McKenzie, so I'll revise my player card accordingly below:

SAT

Joe Mixon O18.5 receiving yards (OLD) - I know, he didn't have any last time - but it was a lopsided game from early in 2Q/3Q.    I expect the Raiders to play much better, and that means CIN has to be more balanced, and also needs to keep LV's EDGE's from terrorizing Burrow.  The easiest way - use Mixon in the pass game.   Again, 1 play could get this.

Tee Higgins O5.5 catches +120 2U  - given all the extra attention I expect Ja'Marr Chase to get, the guy who benefits the most is Higgins.   Tyler Boyd will get a bad matchup with Nate Hobbs, so I would expect Higgins to get the most targets (along with more for Mixon/Uzomah).   

Gabriel Davis O27.5 rec yards 2U - he's become Allen's #2 WR target, and against NE he's likely to draw the best matchup.   

Devin Singletary O14.5 rec yards 2U / O2.5 catches +130 2U - missed this the first time.  Way too low   
 

SUN

Rob Gronkowski O5.5 catches +115 2U (OLD) - not adding anything new here, can't believe I'm getting +money for 6+ catches against PHI's D

Devonta Smith O41.5 rec yards - you beat TAM with the big plays.   Smith is the guy who can win 1-on-1.   With the bad weather forecast, it keeps me at 1U.

Pat Friermuth O30.5 rec yards 2U (OLD) - this is easy, KC lets the outlet guys get theirs, and that's Friermuth.  Will consider a 2nd U if Sat goes well.

Deebo Samuel O28.5 rush yards (OLD) - DAL's D is way easier to attack with the run than the pass, and there's zero doubt IMO that SF will want to limit JimmyG's risk for picks - so that means more Deebo carries.   That total is low enough, only 1 play could do it.  I feel a lot better about this than the rec yards total, because of how Deebo's deployed, this IMO is far more predictable.

Ceedee Lamb O60.5 rec yards - it's a little iffier now that Cedrick Wilson becomes the 3rd WR instead of Gallup - as Lamb will give up more slot chances.  However, the SF secondary is really vulnerable, so I will always go for O4.5/mid-60 yard props with Lamb, as heavy slot or favorable D matchups are a lock for him to go 6/80+.   No catch props yet, and I want to leverage the +money on the other rec. props, so I'll take this now, and use it in my 6-leg parley.

MNF

Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards (OLD) - ARI will no doubt try to take away Kupp, which leaves OBJ as the #2 target.   I actually think Van Jefferson should be used more - but Stafford really zeros in on OBJ.   Last time, it was 6/90.   I'll take this easily.

Zach Ertz O5.5 catches +120 2U - they don't necessarily give up big chunk plays - but the LAR D gives up a lot of catches, relative to the player.  With +money, I'll take 2U here.

My new 6-leg player prop parley is Higgins O5.5 catches +120 / Singletary O2.5 catches +115 / Friermuth O30.5 rec yards / Gronk O58.5 rec yards  / Lamb O62.5 rec yards /  Ertz O5.5  catches +110 for +7000 0.5U.   I'll start the weekend off with a SGP of CIN ML / Mixon TD / Higgins O5.5 catches / Waller O59.5 rec yards / Chase O70.5 rec yards / Z-Jones O4.5 catches for +4000 0.5U as well.    So that's 20.0U in player props alone.

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

SAT

Isaiah McKenzie +1000 / +11000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U - OLD) - I know, I know - Beasley's back.  But Mckenzie's been far more effective, and still got about 35-40 percent of the snaps while Beasley sat.   For the mismatches he provides, I think this should be more like +400, so I'll take a stab.

SUN

Noah Gray +1200 / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1U) - given KC's affinity for 12 formation near the GL, I expect Gray or Bell to play more with the problems KC has been having especially if CEH & Hill are both gimpy.   PIT will obviously key in on Kelce, which then leaves the other TD prop open.   

MNF

Antoine Wesley +550 / +7000 2+ (1.1U / 0.2U - OLD) - I can't believe it's still this high, as it's very clear he's their RZ big body target.   Worth taking a bit of a bigger stab here.

 

I still also have that 1U Georgia -2.5 (Won obv) / CIN -6 (LV playing on Sat was not nice by the schedulers at all) / PHI +8.5 (TAM W's, PHI covers) / DAL -3 (just can't take JimmyG, but if there's one play that sinks me, it's this one) / PIT +13.5 (same as PHI) / LAR -4 parley, couldn't decide on NE/BUF for +4800 - so that's 24.0U in play so far.    I think the line on ALL of the guys above are going to move up, so getting them now.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 18

ATS 59-46; 16-19 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +129.4U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 163-155, +35.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +42.4U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +207.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U)

Edited by Broncofan
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37 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Missed Devin Singletary O14.5 rec yards 2U the first time.  NE pass D definitely allows RB funnel yards.   Easy 2U play.    Card adjusted above. 

I just hammered it. I actually got it over 13.5

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Couple of Wild Card Round notes:

 

• Over last 4 years, underdogs are 15-3 ATS.

• Home favorites of 7 or fewer are 14-28 ATS since 2003. Bengals, Cowboys, Bills, and Rams make up that group this year. 

• Since 2002, QBs making their first playoff start are 16-33 ATS (does not count QBs making playoff debut vs one another). Qualifying QBs here are: K.Murray, M.Jones,  J.Hurts

• Over the last 4 years, 3 seeds are 1-7 ATS vs 6 seeds. Cowboys/49ers and Bills/Patriots are those matchups this year.

• Since 2003, home favorites facing an interdivision opponent are 3-10 ATS. Bills/Patriots and Rams/Cardinals are those matchups this year. 

 

Edited by SaveOurSonics
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Singletary O2.5 catches came out at +130, so another 2U added.    I don't get the low #'s on Singletary, but hey, I'll just keep pounding the value.  Using this instead of Davis o27.5 rec yards in my 6-leg too. 

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My Bengal player props today so far:

Joe Mixon over 19.5 rushing attempts 1u - Yes, Mixon is coming off a positive COVID test, but he was asymptomatic, so I’m not worried about it effecting his game. Mixon touted the rock 30 times in out last meeting @LV, and we will once again look to lean on Mixon today to negate LV’s pass rush. I pulled this quote of OC Brian Callahan from Bengals.com:

Quote

“Very few tackles in the league can block these guys one-on-one. They'll need help and we have to be able to run the ball like we did last time against these guys. You can't drop back 40 times against them," Callahan says. "You have to run at them, you have to run away from them. What you have to do is mix it up and not make it easy on them. You're not going to be able to shut them down every snap. They're going to make plays on you, but you have to make it hard."

Tyler Boyd over 3.5 receptions -160 1u - Contrary to @Broncofan’s assessment, I think Boyd is a main cog in our gameplan today. The last time these teams met, Boyd had 6 receptions for 49 yards. And while Hobbs is an impressive rookie and a tough matchup on paper, LV’s predominantly used Cover-3 allows for the Bengals to exploit matchups with pre-snap motion. Nearly all of Boyd’s receptions last outing came versus linebackers. Boyd will win these matchups almost every time, and as a slot man, is a great quick/hot option versus a very active pass rush. The odds don’t present value, so maybe parlay or hold off for a live bet at even odds, but I think this is a safe play. 

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3 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Remember if you’re betting the spreads… underdogs are 15-3 against the spread on wildcard weekend in the past 4 years. 
 

Home favorites of 7 points or less are 14-28-1 ATS since 2003.

Check out a few posts above this one 😉

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