Weekly Bets Thread

[agarcia34]

I would go 

LV +6

NE +4.5 

Philly +8.5

SF +3

KC -12.5

AZ +4

[SaveOurSonics]

My official plays as of right now: 

 

Bengals Little Win (+140) 1U 

Bills Little Win (+150) 1U

Similar thoughts on both games here. I don't LOVE either team to cover the spread, but I do really like both games to stay competitive and the home teams to take it against inferior first-time playoff QBs. It's +money if even one of them hits. 

CIN/LVR U48.5 (+100) 1U - At +money I felt like I had to take it. I expect both teams to come out with a slow-paced, ground attack to avoid back breaking mistakes via their first-time playoff QBs. Both defenses sport a better-than-you-think run defense. I'm expecting a 20-17 score from this game. Fwiw, this pick has nothing to do with the weather. 

Hunter Henry U35.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - I don't love the line so it's more of a gut call here. Henry put up 9 yards last time vs the Bills, who sport the NFLs best defense against TEs. I don't expect this game to reach 54 points like the last time around and I don't expect Mac Jones to uncork 32 attempts, so I'm going to bank on a heavy run blocking day from Henry.

Devin Singletary O2.5 Receptions (+125) & O14.5 Receiving (-115) 1U - Love BF's logic here. Singletary had 5 for 30+ last time around, and I very much expect Buffalo to keep this game in Josh Allen's hands with no fewer than 35 attempts. This is not a parlay, but two separate 1U plays.  

Elijah Mitchell O19.5 Attempts (+100) 1.5U - Again, at +money I really like this play. I mentioned in a previous post that Mitchell has exceeded this total in all 5 of his most recent starts in myriad different scripts and total points. I'm playing 49ers ML, which would making this Over a virtual lock. 

Rob Gronkowski O58.5 Receiving (-110) 1.5U - I really need to get me a book that allows me to refund wagers. Admittedly played this without insight into the projected winds. Wouldn't play this knowing that. I don't feel like double dipping on the Over Receptions play at +money, even if that is arguably the better play. Prior to the wind info, I saw a 5 for 65 type game from Gronk. I'm hopeful the Eagles porous TE defense allows at least one big run after catch play.

DeVonta Smith O41.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - Another play submitted prior to knowledge of the wind and I like this one even less now. I'm expecting the winds to completely kill Philly's pass game. DeVonta doesn't have much of a YAC factor to his game, so very little hope of this one hitting. I didn't mind projected rain but completely whiffed on the wind. 

BUF U51 / TB U53 / PIT U53.5 Teaser (+140) 3U - My big play of the weekend. I can't remember the exact stat, but I remember reading that somewhere around 80% of O/U's go Under on Wild Card weekend when the O/U is 44+. Buying a TD on the way up, I feel good about all of these games. 

Long Shot 8-leg Teaser (+800) 0.25U
CIN+2 / CIN U56 / BUF+3 / BUF U51 / TB-1 / TB U53 / SF+10.5 / KC U53.5
 

 

[SaveOurSonics]

Any thoughts on Josh Jacobs U16.5 Carries at +100? He's only exceeded that total in 3 games this season, and never in back to back games (he's coming off a 26 carry game). He's also dealing with a rib injury, though I know he's been sporting that for a few weeks. 2 of the 3 games Jacobs has hit the Over, the Raiders have scored 30+ points, and I'm already committed to the Under in this matchup. 

 

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Any thoughts on Josh Jacobs U16.5 Carries at +100? He's only exceeded that total in 3 games this season, and never in back to back games (he's coming off a 26 carry game). He's also dealing with a rib injury, though I know he's been sporting that for a few weeks. 2 of the 3 games Jacobs has hit the Over, the Raiders have scored 30+ points, and I'm already committed to the Under in this matchup. 

 

Because you’ve committed to the under don’t think you need to spread the risk.    I like those correlation plays if there’s a better payout.  

[SaveOurSonics]

30 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Because you’ve committed to the under don’t think you need to spread the risk.    I like those correlation plays if there’s a better payout.  

Ya I got really close to pulling the trigger on a few props there before kickoff but ended up avoiding everything including this play. 

[Broncofan]

Well my CIN -6 play won for ATS/ML at 1-0, I skipped BUF/NE (and my Georgia -2.5 / CIN -6 / PHI +8.5 / DAL -3 / PIT +13.5 / LAR -4 6-leg parley is alive) for 1-0 and a 1.0U profit. 

Player prop wise, got unlucky the O14.5 rec yard 2U prop on Singletary, as a 5 yard catch got called back, while I whiffed badly on Tee Higgins O5.5 catches +120 2U.    But at least the Singletary O2.5 catch +130 2U, Gabriel Davis O27.5 rec yards 2U and Joe Mixon O18.5 rec yards all hit, 3-2 for a 1.6U profit.  I decided with the first leg in my 6-leg whiffing with Higgins O5.5, that I'd re-invest with a 0.5U 7-leg of Singletary O2.5 recs +120 / Gronk O58.5 recs yards (as the O5.5 is now no longer + money, yards easier IMO) / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Lamb O62.5 rec yards / Amari Cooper O59.5 rec yards (new) / Friermuth O30.5 rec yards / Ertz O5.5 recs +110 for +11000 0.5U (YOLO lol).

I only had Isaiah McKenzie TD prop, which missed for -1.0U - but man, he had so many touches, I can't complain at all.   I'd take it again next week if they offered the same odds (they won't lol - it ended at +350 instead of +1000).

Still, it's a decent 1.6U profit total tonight (with 0.5U re-upped for a new 7-leg player prop parley with Singletary starting it lol), and my ATS 6-leg is still alive, with 2 legs down and 4 to go.   Looking for big things on Sunday's 3-card slate!

 

Edited January 16, 2022 by Broncofan

[FreshPrince]

8 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

My official plays as of right now: 

 

Bengals Little Win (+140) 1U 

Bills Little Win (+150) 1U

Similar thoughts on both games here. I don't LOVE either team to cover the spread, but I do really like both games to stay competitive and the home teams to take it against inferior first-time playoff QBs. It's +money if even one of them hits. 

CIN/LVR U48.5 (+100) 1U - At +money I felt like I had to take it. I expect both teams to come out with a slow-paced, ground attack to avoid back breaking mistakes via their first-time playoff QBs. Both defenses sport a better-than-you-think run defense. I'm expecting a 20-17 score from this game. Fwiw, this pick has nothing to do with the weather. 

Hunter Henry U35.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - I don't love the line so it's more of a gut call here. Henry put up 9 yards last time vs the Bills, who sport the NFLs best defense against TEs. I don't expect this game to reach 54 points like the last time around and I don't expect Mac Jones to uncork 32 attempts, so I'm going to bank on a heavy run blocking day from Henry.

Devin Singletary O2.5 Receptions (+125) & O14.5 Receiving (-115) 1U - Love BF's logic here. Singletary had 5 for 30+ last time around, and I very much expect Buffalo to keep this game in Josh Allen's hands with no fewer than 35 attempts. This is not a parlay, but two separate 1U plays.  

Elijah Mitchell O19.5 Attempts (+100) 1.5U - Again, at +money I really like this play. I mentioned in a previous post that Mitchell has exceeded this total in all 5 of his most recent starts in myriad different scripts and total points. I'm playing 49ers ML, which would making this Over a virtual lock. 

Rob Gronkowski O58.5 Receiving (-110) 1.5U - I really need to get me a book that allows me to refund wagers. Admittedly played this without insight into the projected winds. Wouldn't play this knowing that. I don't feel like double dipping on the Over Receptions play at +money, even if that is arguably the better play. Prior to the wind info, I saw a 5 for 65 type game from Gronk. I'm hopeful the Eagles porous TE defense allows at least one big run after catch play.

DeVonta Smith O41.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - Another play submitted prior to knowledge of the wind and I like this one even less now. I'm expecting the winds to completely kill Philly's pass game. DeVonta doesn't have much of a YAC factor to his game, so very little hope of this one hitting. I didn't mind projected rain but completely whiffed on the wind. 

BUF U51 / TB U53 / PIT U53.5 Teaser (+140) 3U - My big play of the weekend. I can't remember the exact stat, but I remember reading that somewhere around 80% of O/U's go Under on Wild Card weekend when the O/U is 44+. Buying a TD on the way up, I feel good about all of these games. 

Long Shot 8-leg Teaser (+800) 0.25U
CIN+2 / CIN U56 / BUF+3 / BUF U51 / TB-1 / TB U53 / SF+10.5 / KC U53.5
 

 

Good calls bro! If Henry didn’t have that drop! Ahh that’d be 5-0. I’m taking your advice for tomorrow!

[Broncofan]

OK with Sat's card out of the way, time to update for Sunday/Monday, and I'll correct the mistake of my ATS/ML/RACE plays for the weekend as well...

 

ATS/ML/RACE (1-0 SAT, +1.0U)

PHI +8.5 @ TAM, RACE to 20/25 (+350/+750 0.5U each) - I'm not going to outright bet against TB12, but I do think the Eagles will cover, and I even think it's possible they'll lead (with key guys hurting or out for Tampa's D), only to have a TB12 late heroic comeback.  For that reason alone, the payouts for a late lead are enormous, so worth a small stab.

DAL -3 vs. SF - gotta admit this one makes me nervous, but in the end, I just feel more comfortable fading JimmyG.   I know Dak's struggled of late, but I see the matchups as more in his favor than in a while (other than the PHI backups, of course).

LAR -4 vs ARI - ARI just hasn't been the same team with Nuk out, and even though he's back, JJ Watt with 1 arm isn't quite enough to restore the ARI run D, or make up for their coverage issues.   

Along with the Georgia -2.5 (hit) / CIN -6 (hit) / PHI +8.5 / DAL -3 / PIT +13.5 / LAR -4 6-leg parley for 1U that's still alive, that's 5.0U in ATS/ML/RACE plays.

 

PLAYER PROPS (3-2 SAT, +1.6U - new parley added)

SUN

Jalen Hurts O9.5 carries / O57.5 rush yards (NEW) - with better weather rain-wise, but still a big wind day, I expect we'll see more Hurts runs. 

Rob Gronkowski O5.5 catches +115 2U (OLD) - not adding anything new here, can't believe I'm getting +money for 6+ catches against PHI's D.   EDIT:  For the 7-leg Sat PM parley I added back, the O5.5 is no longer +money, so I took O58.5 rec yards in the parley (but single bet still as above).

Devonta Smith O41.5 rec yards (OLD)  - you beat TAM with the big plays.   Smith is the guy who can win 1-on-1.   With the bad weather forecast, it keeps me at 1U. EDIT:  VOIDED

Deebo Samuel O28.5 rush yards (OLD) - DAL's D is way easier to attack with the run than the pass, and there's zero doubt IMO that SF will want to limit JimmyG's risk for picks - so that means more Deebo carries.   That total is low enough, only 1 play could do it.  I feel a lot better about this than the rec yards total, because of how Deebo's deployed, this IMO is far more predictable.  EDIT: For the parley, it's now O29.5 rush yards.

Ceedee Lamb O60.5 rec yards (OLD) - it's a little iffier now that Cedrick Wilson becomes the 3rd WR instead of Gallup - as Lamb will give up more slot chances.  However, the SF secondary is really vulnerable, so I will always go for O4.5/mid-60 yard props with Lamb, as heavy slot or favorable D matchups are a lock for him to go 6/80+.  EDIT: With the updated 7-leg player prop parley, it's now O62.5 for the parley, but for the single bet, still at O60.5 yards.

Tony Pollard O2.5 catches +110 / O16.5 rec yards (NEW) - doing well with the pass catching RB's, and I expect this will be another way to overcome SF's stout run D to get Pollard the ball. 

Cedrick Wilson O41.5 rec yards (NEW) - this is my way of hedging on Cooper/Lamb.  Wilson takes up the slot, and that's valuable, so I'll go with the low total.  If Dak goes bonkers with 300+ yards, I could hit all 4 receiving props (SF is great against the TE, so no Schultz props). 

Amari Cooper O59.5 rec yards (NEW) - the other matchup to exploit with the SF CB's is Cooper.   Give me a lower number than Lamb, with Gallup gone, I'll take that as well, and include it in the 7-leg Sat PM parley too.

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +160  (NEW)- PIT's run D is very weak, but they stiffen up in the RZ, and with fewer healthy RB options, I expect more chances to score in the RZ via the pass this week, and I do expect at least 3, if not 4 TD's, so that's good payout to hit.

Ben Roethlisberger O1.5 pass TD's +180 (NEW) - his swan song, so I'll bank on them throwing like crazy if they get close (and why I like Friermuth TD props too).

Pat Friermuth O30.5 rec yards 2U (OLD) - this is easy, KC lets the outlet guys get theirs, and that's Friermuth.  Will consider a 2nd U if Sat goes well.

MNF

Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards (OLD) - ARI will no doubt try to take away Kupp, which leaves OBJ as the #2 target.   I actually think Van Jefferson should be used more - but Stafford really zeros in on OBJ.   Last time, it was 6/90.   I'll take this easily.

Zach Ertz O5.5 catches +120 2U - they don't necessarily give up big chunk plays - but the LAR D gives up a lot of catches, relative to the player.  With +money, I'll take 2U here.

My new 7-leg player Sat PM prop parley is Singletary O2.5 catches +115 / Gronk O58.5 rec yards  / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Lamb O63.5 rec yards Cooper O59.5 rec yards /  Ertz O5.5  catches +110 for +11000 0.5U.   I'll also play a SGP SF-DAL parley of DAL ML / Dak O1.5 pass TD's / JimmyG O0.5 INT's / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Pollard O2.5 recs & O16.5 rec yards / Cooper O59.5 rec yards for +6000 0.5U too, and a PHI +14.5 / Hurts O57.5 rush yards / Gronk O60.5 rec yards / DAL +3.5 / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Pollard O16.5 rec yd / Cooper O59.5 rec yd / Ertz O5.5 recs +110 for +10600 0.5U.    So that's 18.5U in player props alone.

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS (0-1 SAT, -1.0U)

SUN

Jalen Darden TD +2500 0.5U (NEW) - with Grayson on IR, and Scotty Miller still not in game shape, Darden offers both ST opps and the deep threat.   To be clear, there's no real RZ looks, unless it's a gimmick play, or bubble screen.   But at +2500, why not.

Noah Gray +1200 / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1U - OLD) - given KC's affinity for 12 formation near the GL, I expect Gray or Bell to play more with the problems KC has been having especially if CEH & Hill are both gimpy.   PIT will obviously key in on Kelce, which then leaves the other TD prop open.   

Pat Friermuth +350 / +3000 (0.8U / 0.2U - NEW) - with news Juju Smith-Schuster is back, Friermuth went from around +200 to +350.   That's too much of an overcorrection, they still look his way (and that's a matchup to exploit vs. DAL).   Worth a total 1U play.

MNF

Antoine Wesley +550 / +7000 2+ (1.1U / 0.2U - OLD) - I can't believe it's still this high, as it's very clear he's their RZ big body target.   Worth taking a bit of a bigger stab here.

So that's 3.5U in TD props for Sun/Mon.

 

So that's 27.0U in play so far for Sun/Mon, with a 1.1U profit from Sat (LOL).   BOL!

Edited January 16, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK adding a few more player props for today's card:

Jalen Hurts O57.5 rush yards - with better weather rain-wise, but still a big wind day, I expect we'll see more Hurts runs. 

Tony Pollard O2.5 catches +110 / O16.5 rec yards - doing well with the pass catching RB's, and I expect this will be another way to overcome SF's stout run D to get Pollard the ball. 

Cedrick Wilson O41.5 rec yards - this is my way of hedging on Cooper/Lamb.  Wilson takes up the slot, and that's valuable, so I'll go with the low total.  If Dak goes bonkers with 300+ yards, I could hit all 4 receiving props (SF is great against the TE, so no Schultz props). 

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +160 - PIT's run D is very weak, but they stiffen up in the RZ, and with fewer healthy RB options, I expect more chances to score in the RZ via the pass this week, and I do expect at least 3, if not 4 TD's, so that's good payout to hit.

Ben Roethlisberger O1.5 pass TD's +180 - his swan song, so I'll bank on them throwing like crazy if they get close (and why I like Friermuth TD props too).

I was able to void the Devonta Smith prop, so that's 5.0U more, main card updated - BOL!

 

Edited January 16, 2022 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Played a 6.5 teaser Eagles +14 and over 40.5 -106

[Broncofan]

Adding one final YOLO longshot TD prop for 0.5U today - Jalen Darden +2500.    He likely won't see more than a 15-20 percent target share, and he may not get more than 2-3 targets - but he's also their deep guy now besides Evans, and he also offers the bonus of special teams returns.    At that number, just a small stab.

[braylon]

Anyone have an argument against Jalen Hurts over 9.5 carries? I think it's my favorite prop of the day.

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, braylon said:

Anyone have an argument against Jalen Hurts over 9.5 carries? I think it's my favorite prop of the day.

"I don't like money."

Adding it.

Edited January 16, 2022 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

2 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Played a 6.5 teaser Eagles +14 and over 40.5 -106

Also playing Brady over 271.5 and Bucs ML parlay +133

Wind dosent scare me much. If the Bucs win it’s gonna be cause Brady picks apart that Eagles secondary. Evans and Gronk are playing. Down two RBs. Bucs throwing the ball and will throw the ball a lot. 

[Broncofan]

With the 2 OL injuries, and halftime now here, going to put 2.1U on PHI +16 now to win 2U.

Edited January 16, 2022 by Broncofan