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2 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Also playing Brady over 271.5 and Bucs ML parlay +133

Wind dosent scare me much. If the Bucs win it’s gonna be cause Brady picks apart that Eagles secondary. Evans and Gronk are playing. Down two RBs. Bucs throwing the ball and will throw the ball a lot. 

Parlay dead by blowout. Sucks to lose on something that should have hit 241 yards and won’t even get the 32 yards needed… incredible 

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On 1/12/2022 at 12:31 AM, NYRaider said:

• Stefon Diggs: O1.0 receiving

• Darren Waller: O50.5 receiving

• Josh Allen: O274.5 total yards

• Deebo Samuel: O85.5 total yards

• Tyreek Hill: U79.5 receiving yards

Please, god, lol.

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16 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Good thing I didn’t play any of these. 4-0 so far 😅

I was in Vegas this weekend for my birthday and these two girls who were 49ers fans asked me what to play, 49ers +3 or ML. I said ML, but didn't play it myself, smh.

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2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I was in Vegas this weekend for my birthday and these two girls who were 49ers fans asked me what to play, 49ers +3 or ML. I said ML, but didn't play it myself, smh.

Very nice, I’m actually going to Vegas next weekend for my birthday. 
 

I ended up taking 49ers Little Win at +250. Worked marvelously. Eli Mitchell carries was an easy hit too. 

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I love the Kyler over 39.5 rushing tonight

He hasn't ran as much this year on purpose, but it's his first career playoff game, so I expect the Cardinals to unleash his legs 

Rams DL should be able to get after him and flush him from the pocket. That will push him to take off and run a little bit more 

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15 minutes ago, N4L said:

I love the Kyler over 39.5 rushing tonight

He hasn't ran as much this year on purpose, but it's his first career playoff game, so I expect the Cardinals to unleash his legs 

Rams DL should be able to get after him and flush him from the pocket. That will push him to take off and run a little bit more 

Totally agree. I actually got it at 41.5 unfortunately, but still like it. Ramsey back for this game should force Kyler’s hand a bit more as well. 

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44 minutes ago, N4L said:

I love the Kyler over 39.5 rushing tonight

He hasn't ran as much this year on purpose, but it's his first career playoff game, so I expect the Cardinals to unleash his legs 

Rams DL should be able to get after him and flush him from the pocket. That will push him to take off and run a little bit more 

Hasn’t he also been hurt? I thought he was nursing something, hence the hesitancy to run.

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19 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Totally agree. I actually got it at 41.5 unfortunately, but still like it. Ramsey back for this game should force Kyler’s hand a bit more as well. 

In addition to that, I’m also playing…

Conner ATTD +120 - I just love that kinda juice on one of the league leaders in TDs who has scored in both prior matchups. 

Ertz O5.5 Receptions - Anyone getting double digit targets can have my money for O5.5

Higbee U39.5 Yards - Cardinals are a top 5 defense against TEs with arguably the most athletic group of LBs/Ss in the league. I like to think McVay does the right thing and comes out run heavy against a leaky front 7 to avoid the type of early game back-breaking mistakes Stafford has all too commonly produced. Higbee hit the Under in his only game against ARI this year. The Rams have also featured a WR-heavy game plan against ARI this year. Similar logic to the Hunter Henry under. 
 

Plays I’m considering…

Stafford U1.5 Rushing - Feels like a true coin flip, but Stafford has negative rushing yards in more games (7) than he has the O1.5 (5). The risk is that Stafford is a gamer who’s been willing to risk his body in big moments before. 

Rams Little Win (+150) - Been doing fairly well with Big/Little Wins lately. I’ll bank on a competitive game with the more experienced home team prevailing. 

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Another one I’m eyeing….


Sony O60.5 Rushing - He’s hit in every single start besides his last versus the 49ers #1 dvoa run defense. I think people are incorrectly associating that with Cam Akers return. The Rams lead back has easily hit the Over in both games against Arizona this year (89 and 79). Sony is the lead back tonight. 

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2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Tonight’s card: 


Michel O60.5 Rushing 1.5U
Akers U28.5 Rushing 
Higbee U39.5 Receiving 
Kyler O41.5 Rushing 
Ertz O5.5 Receptions 1.5U
Conner ATTD
Rams Little Win

Yikes. Couldn’t be much colder than this. Really need Michel to hit. Conner TD hit. Live bet Stafford U270 passing yards after the 1Q which is looking good. 

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On 1/16/2022 at 12:00 AM, Broncofan said:

Well my CIN -6 play won for ATS/ML at 1-0, I skipped BUF/NE (and my Georgia -2.5 / CIN -6 / PHI +8.5 / DAL -3 / PIT +13.5 / LAR -4 6-leg parley is alive) for 1-0 and a 1.0U profit

Player prop wise, got unlucky the O14.5 rec yard 2U prop on Singletary, as a 5 yard catch got called back, while I whiffed badly on Tee Higgins O5.5 catches +120 2U.    But at least the Singletary O2.5 catch +130 2U, Gabriel Davis O27.5 rec yards 2U and Joe Mixon O18.5 rec yards all hit, 3-2 for a 1.6U profit.  I decided with the first leg in my 6-leg whiffing with Higgins O5.5, that I'd re-invest with a 0.5U 7-leg of Singletary O2.5 recs +120 / Gronk O58.5 recs yards (as the O5.5 is now no longer + money, yards easier IMO) / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Lamb O62.5 rec yards / Amari Cooper O59.5 rec yards (new) / Friermuth O30.5 rec yards / Ertz O5.5 recs +110 for +11000 0.5U (YOLO lol).

I only had Isaiah McKenzie TD prop, which missed for -1.0U - but man, he had so many touches, I can't complain at all.   I'd take it again next week if they offered the same odds (they won't lol - it ended at +350 instead of +1000).

Still, it's a decent 1.6U profit total tonight (with 0.5U re-upped for a new 7-leg player prop parley with Singletary starting it lol), and my ATS 6-leg is still alive, with 2 legs down and 4 to go.   Looking for big things on Sunday's 3-card slate!

 

 

On 1/16/2022 at 12:55 AM, Broncofan said:

OK with Sat's card out of the way, time to update for Sunday/Monday, and I'll correct the mistake of my ATS/ML/RACE plays for the weekend as well...

 

ATS/ML/RACE (1-0 SAT, +1.0U)

PHI +8.5 @ TAM, RACE to 20/25 (+350/+750 0.5U each) - I'm not going to outright bet against TB12, but I do think the Eagles will cover, and I even think it's possible they'll lead (with key guys hurting or out for Tampa's D), only to have a TB12 late heroic comeback.  For that reason alone, the payouts for a late lead are enormous, so worth a small stab.

DAL -3 vs. SF - gotta admit this one makes me nervous, but in the end, I just feel more comfortable fading JimmyG.   I know Dak's struggled of late, but I see the matchups as more in his favor than in a while (other than the PHI backups, of course).

LAR -4 vs ARI - ARI just hasn't been the same team with Nuk out, and even though he's back, JJ Watt with 1 arm isn't quite enough to restore the ARI run D, or make up for their coverage issues.   

Along with the Georgia -2.5 (hit) / CIN -6 (hit) / PHI +8.5 / DAL -3 / PIT +13.5 / LAR -4 6-leg parley for 1U that's still alive, that's 5.0U in ATS/ML/RACE plays.

 

PLAYER PROPS (3-2 SAT, +1.6U - new parley added)

SUN

Jalen Hurts O9.5 carries / O57.5 rush yards (NEW) - with better weather rain-wise, but still a big wind day, I expect we'll see more Hurts runs. 

Rob Gronkowski O5.5 catches +115 2U (OLD) - not adding anything new here, can't believe I'm getting +money for 6+ catches against PHI's D.   EDIT:  For the 7-leg Sat PM parley I added back, the O5.5 is no longer +money, so I took O58.5 rec yards in the parley (but single bet still as above).

Devonta Smith O41.5 rec yards (OLD)  - you beat TAM with the big plays.   Smith is the guy who can win 1-on-1.   With the bad weather forecast, it keeps me at 1U. EDIT:  VOIDED

Deebo Samuel O28.5 rush yards (OLD) - DAL's D is way easier to attack with the run than the pass, and there's zero doubt IMO that SF will want to limit JimmyG's risk for picks - so that means more Deebo carries.   That total is low enough, only 1 play could do it.  I feel a lot better about this than the rec yards total, because of how Deebo's deployed, this IMO is far more predictable.  EDIT: For the parley, it's now O29.5 rush yards.

Ceedee Lamb O60.5 rec yards (OLD) - it's a little iffier now that Cedrick Wilson becomes the 3rd WR instead of Gallup - as Lamb will give up more slot chances.  However, the SF secondary is really vulnerable, so I will always go for O4.5/mid-60 yard props with Lamb, as heavy slot or favorable D matchups are a lock for him to go 6/80+.  EDIT: With the updated 7-leg player prop parley, it's now O62.5 for the parley, but for the single bet, still at O60.5 yards.

Tony Pollard O2.5 catches +110 / O16.5 rec yards (NEW) - doing well with the pass catching RB's, and I expect this will be another way to overcome SF's stout run D to get Pollard the ball. 

Cedrick Wilson O41.5 rec yards (NEW) - this is my way of hedging on Cooper/Lamb.  Wilson takes up the slot, and that's valuable, so I'll go with the low total.  If Dak goes bonkers with 300+ yards, I could hit all 4 receiving props (SF is great against the TE, so no Schultz props). 

Amari Cooper O59.5 rec yards (NEW) - the other matchup to exploit with the SF CB's is Cooper.   Give me a lower number than Lamb, with Gallup gone, I'll take that as well, and include it in the 7-leg Sat PM parley too.

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +160  (NEW)- PIT's run D is very weak, but they stiffen up in the RZ, and with fewer healthy RB options, I expect more chances to score in the RZ via the pass this week, and I do expect at least 3, if not 4 TD's, so that's good payout to hit.

Ben Roethlisberger O1.5 pass TD's +180 (NEW) - his swan song, so I'll bank on them throwing like crazy if they get close (and why I like Friermuth TD props too).

Pat Friermuth O30.5 rec yards 2U (OLD) - this is easy, KC lets the outlet guys get theirs, and that's Friermuth.  Will consider a 2nd U if Sat goes well.

MNF

Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards (OLD) - ARI will no doubt try to take away Kupp, which leaves OBJ as the #2 target.   I actually think Van Jefferson should be used more - but Stafford really zeros in on OBJ.   Last time, it was 6/90.   I'll take this easily.

Zach Ertz O5.5 catches +120 2U - they don't necessarily give up big chunk plays - but the LAR D gives up a lot of catches, relative to the player.  With +money, I'll take 2U here.

My new 7-leg player Sat PM prop parley is Singletary O2.5 catches +115 / Gronk O58.5 rec yards  / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Lamb O63.5 rec yards Cooper O59.5 rec yards /  Ertz O5.5  catches +110 for +11000 0.5U.   I'll also play a SGP SF-DAL parley of DAL ML / Dak O1.5 pass TD's / JimmyG O0.5 INT's / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Pollard O2.5 recs & O16.5 rec yards / Cooper O59.5 rec yards for +6000 0.5U too, and a PHI +14.5 / Hurts O57.5 rush yards / Gronk O60.5 rec yards / DAL +3.5 / Deebo O29.5 rush yards / Pollard O16.5 rec yd / Cooper O59.5 rec yd / Ertz O5.5 recs +110 for +10600 0.5U.    So that's 18.5U in player props alone.

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS (0-1 SAT, -1.0U)

SUN

Jalen Darden TD +2500 0.5U (NEW) - with Grayson on IR, and Scotty Miller still not in game shape, Darden offers both ST opps and the deep threat.   To be clear, there's no real RZ looks, unless it's a gimmick play, or bubble screen.   But at +2500, why not.

Noah Gray +1200 / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1U - OLD) - given KC's affinity for 12 formation near the GL, I expect Gray or Bell to play more with the problems KC has been having especially if CEH & Hill are both gimpy.   PIT will obviously key in on Kelce, which then leaves the other TD prop open.   

Pat Friermuth +350 / +3000 (0.8U / 0.2U - NEW) - with news Juju Smith-Schuster is back, Friermuth went from around +200 to +350.   That's too much of an overcorrection, they still look his way (and that's a matchup to exploit vs. DAL).   Worth a total 1U play.

MNF

Antoine Wesley +550 / +7000 2+ (1.1U / 0.2U - OLD) - I can't believe it's still this high, as it's very clear he's their RZ big body target.   Worth taking a bit of a bigger stab here.

So that's 3.5U in TD props for Sun/Mon.

 

So that's 27.0U in play so far for Sun/Mon, with a 1.1U profit from Sat (LOL).   BOL!


Well, that was a plain ugly Sun-Mon, and frankly I got lucky it wasn't a LOT worse.  The summary:

ATS/ML/RACE - 2-2 (CIN -6 and LAR -4 both win, PHI +8.5 loses badly, and DAL -3 I knew was risky), 0-1 RACE (PHI lol) - so -1.5U when you include the 6-leg 0.5U ATS/ML parley.  I also got lucky when my 2U live PHI +16 backdoored to a push thanks to extreme garbage time by Philly.

PLAYER PROPS - 7-8, but with 2U plays on Hurts/Gronk/Pollard/Friermuth all missing, even with Mahomes O2.5 +160 and Big Ben O1.5 +190 saving my bacon, it's a -4.6U total when you add the 3 0.5U player prop parleys that also whiffed.  If there's a lesson to be learned - other than Gronk, almost all of my misses were with the losing team, and other than DAL, I had that team losing - so I overestimated their production or catch-up gamescript.     Back more guys on the winning team, dude....

LONGSHOT TD - 0-4, Wesley and Friermuth both got looks near the GL, but the other 2 fizzled hard, so -3.5U here.

So with a +1.6U balance from Saturday, my -9.6U Sun-Monday works out to a -8.0U weekend.    Oh well, that's the way it goes, just learn and move forward.  The ONLY good news - all 5/6 (I took both sides of SF-DAL) are alive with my 5-leg parley to win 80U for a SB win with CIN/BUF/TEN in the AFC, and LAR/SF in the NFC.   On to the Divisional Round!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 19 (WC Round)

ATS 61-48; 16-20 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +127.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 170-163, +31.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +38.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +197.9U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U)

Edited by Broncofan
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