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5 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Early lines for next week

Bengals at Titans (-3.5)

49ers at Packers (-5.5)

Bills at Chiefs (-2.5)

Rams at Buccaneers (-3.0)

I'll be on the dogs on every matchup except maybe SF, but even there, I'll have to think about that (Bosa/Warner are a big influence on who I take there). 

LAR I'm likely taking the ML & RACE, same with BUF.    TEN it's a time-honored tradition - respect them as a dog (and home dog even more), but they struggle as ATS favorites.  I don't expect any difference this weekend.  

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Just so it's not lost in the summary, looking at the L's this week and the last 4 weeks - the pattern is taking the over's on teams that I think are going to lose, and overvaluing the "garbage time" gamescript narrative.     Realizing that taking overs is already a disadvantage, going to narrow my plays to matchups & teams more likely to succeed.   Doesn't mean I'll take only the winning teams, but overall team success is more likely to lead to increased production.     In a game with back-and-forth outcome, then it's more likely to hit on both sides, so close matches are decent.   But big dogs, I've been losing on the garbage time / gamescript narrative.

I've been doing so well the past 3 weeks before this weekend, that I haven't really looked at the losing plays - but a pattern pretty clearly emerges (and another good reason why it pays to post the picks before, and follow-up after).   

Something to keep in mind for next 3 weeks.

Edited by Broncofan
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@SaveOurSonics @N4L @Broncofan

Some of the early player prop lines from one of my bookies, thoughts?

Bengals @ Titans

Burrow (O/U 275.5 passing)

Mixon (O/U 91.5 rush/rec yards)

Chase (O/U 94.5 rec yards)

----------------------------------

Tannehil (O/U 232.5 passing)

AJ Brown (O/U 75.5 rec yards)

Julio Jones (O/U 55.5 rec yards 

49ers @ Packers

Deebo (O/u 102.5 rush/rec yards)

----------------------------------

Rodgers (O/U 265.5 passing)

Jones (O/U 76.5 rush/rec yards)

Adams (O/U 93.5 rec yards)

Bills @ Chiefs

Allen (O/U 295.5 total yards)

Diggs (O/U 79.5 rec yards)

----------------------------------

Mahomes (O/U 285.5 passing)

Hill (O/U 75.5 rec yards)

Kelce (O/U 74.5 red yards)

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6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

@SaveOurSonics @N4L @Broncofan

Some of the early player prop lines from one of my bookies, thoughts?

Bengals @ Titans

Burrow (O/U 275.5 passing)

Mixon (O/U 91.5 rush/rec yards)

Chase (O/U 94.5 rec yards)

----------------------------------

Tannehil (O/U 232.5 passing)

AJ Brown (O/U 75.5 rec yards)

Julio Jones (O/U 55.5 rec yards 

49ers @ Packers

Deebo (O/u 102.5 rush/rec yards)

----------------------------------

Rodgers (O/U 265.5 passing)

Jones (O/U 76.5 rush/rec yards)

Adams (O/U 93.5 rec yards)

Bills @ Chiefs

Allen (O/U 295.5 total yards)

Diggs (O/U 79.5 rec yards)

----------------------------------

Mahomes (O/U 285.5 passing)

Hill (O/U 75.5 rec yards)

Kelce (O/U 74.5 red yards)

Your bookie is pretty sharp, there are only 3 lines I'd be interested in right away on the Over - Burrow O275.5, Allen 295.5 total yards, and Mahomes 285.5 passing.  

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7 hours ago, NYRaider said:

@SaveOurSonics @N4L @Broncofan

Some of the early player prop lines from one of my bookies, thoughts?

Bengals @ Titans

Burrow (O/U 275.5 passing)

Mixon (O/U 91.5 rush/rec yards)

Chase (O/U 94.5 rec yards)

----------------------------------

Tannehil (O/U 232.5 passing)

AJ Brown (O/U 75.5 rec yards)

Julio Jones (O/U 55.5 rec yards 

49ers @ Packers

Deebo (O/u 102.5 rush/rec yards)

----------------------------------

Rodgers (O/U 265.5 passing)

Jones (O/U 76.5 rush/rec yards)

Adams (O/U 93.5 rec yards)

Bills @ Chiefs

Allen (O/U 295.5 total yards)

Diggs (O/U 79.5 rec yards)

----------------------------------

Mahomes (O/U 285.5 passing)

Hill (O/U 75.5 rec yards)

Kelce (O/U 74.5 red yards)

Burrow over passing yards feels like a certainty IMO. I don’t think we’ll be able to run on TEN and their pass defense can be vulnerable. 94.5 receiving for Chase is steep, I’d be interested in Higgins’ line - I believe he’s flying under the radar right now.

The last few weeks have dampened this line down a bit. The game plan last week was to run Mixon and reduce Burrow’s drop backs to nullify LV’s edge rushers. I don’t see that being an issue this week. We are going to unleash Burrow.

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This week I am going to be teasing the niners, rams, bills up into double digits

I will be doing a round robin. That's three, two team parlays with eag leg of the teaser being +10 or more. I like all three to win outright so getting two scores feels like great insurance. I am essentially paying extra juice while being forced to put them into two+ team parlays. I will pay for the extra point or two in a teaser to break key numbers. I have zero issues doing that. Would rather bet another 10% and play it to win the standard amount. 

It's also nice to have your bets structured in different timeslots. I already took a shot on a three team teaser on monday (rams, over 42.5, SF+11.5) to set me up for the first leg of my three team robin for this weekend (SF +11.5). I then placed (sf+13, LAR+10) and (SF+13, LAR+10, BUF+9) on Tuesday. 

Typically, the problem with parlays/teasers which have legs in different time slots is that you can win the first one and lose the second one and lose your bet. The way I have that structured is so each time the underdog covers the multi score spread, I cash a ticket. I already hit the Rams, over 43 teaser on Monday lol 

Because each game is in a different timeslot and I structured it the way I did, I can now take straight bet shots on each dog on the moneyline for an amount that is relative to my teaser profit margin. I'm going to see how things play out this week but I really think that the Rams, niners, and bills are very live dogs

I will probably need to play the SF/BUF and BUF/LAR teasers as well to not be over exposed to one game (currently over exposed to SF+13 relative to the risk) 

Hopefully, I can win the first two and go into that KC/BUF with a large amount of money on a combination of teasers. It's nice to sit back when you know you have the absolute best number possible for the final bet of a great weekend 

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17 hours ago, N4L said:

This week I am going to be teasing the niners, rams, bills up into double digits

I will be doing a round robin. That's three, two team parlays with eag leg of the teaser being +10 or more. I like all three to win outright so getting two scores feels like great insurance. I am essentially paying extra juice while being forced to put them into two+ team parlays. I will pay for the extra point or two in a teaser to break key numbers. I have zero issues doing that. Would rather bet another 10% and play it to win the standard amount. 

It's also nice to have your bets structured in different timeslots. I already took a shot on a three team teaser on monday (rams, over 42.5, SF+11.5) to set me up for the first leg of my three team robin for this weekend (SF +11.5). I then placed (sf+13, LAR+10) and (SF+13, LAR+10, BUF+9) on Tuesday. 

Typically, the problem with parlays/teasers which have legs in different time slots is that you can win the first one and lose the second one and lose your bet. The way I have that structured is so each time the underdog covers the multi score spread, I cash a ticket. I already hit the Rams, over 43 teaser on Monday lol 

Because each game is in a different timeslot and I structured it the way I did, I can now take straight bet shots on each dog on the moneyline for an amount that is relative to my teaser profit margin. I'm going to see how things play out this week but I really think that the Rams, niners, and bills are very live dogs

I will probably need to play the SF/BUF and BUF/LAR teasers as well to not be over exposed to one game (currently over exposed to SF+13 relative to the risk) 

Hopefully, I can win the first two and go into that KC/BUF with a large amount of money on a combination of teasers. It's nice to sit back when you know you have the absolute best number possible for the final bet of a great weekend 

Appreciate your work and insight all season sir.

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With Wirfs and Jensen most likely out, the bucs WRs being what they are, and the bucs secondary being beat up, the Rams ML is very juicy.

Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Lenard Floyd are playing great right now. Von particularly looks like himself again. Everyone knows the way to beat brady is pressure with four. The rams can and should get pressure with four/five.  

I like the way ramsey matches up with mike evans. He can match his size and ball skills. The Rams havent had Jalen shadow WRs, but considering the massive drop off in talent from Evans to their other WRs, I think it would make a lot of sense to have him shadow evans this weekend. 

I am always an advocate in taking the points, especially when its 3 points, simply because over the long run with as many bets as I make, Id rather win a higher % of bets than win plus money. So, I will probably split the bet 50-50 on the ML and the +3. If they lose by 2 or less, then I will basically break even. If they win, then I will hit both and feel good about it. 

Last week, I took the over on Gronk rec and yards and both lost. The bucs were up and didnt need to lean on him. Given the fact I think the rams will be winning, and the fact the rams are vulnerable over the middle, I expect Brady to look to gronk more frequently than he did last game. He was blocking more than I would have liked last week, and the protection problems could lead to him blocking a lot this week. So, I will probably still play the over in rec and probably yards, but I wont go crazy with it. 

I also expect Brady to try and get the ball out of his hands quickly to Giovanni Bernard, so I will look to his reception total as well (anyone know what it is? I couldnt find it). That is dependent on Fournette's health as well. The last time these teams played, the bucs RBs had 12 receptions for 77 yards. Brady loves throwing to RBs. 

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14 hours ago, N4L said:

With Wirfs and Jensen most likely out, the bucs WRs being what they are, and the bucs secondary being beat up, the Rams ML is very juicy.

I don't think for 1 second that Jensen won't suit up

Wirfs is a doubt, but I still think he plays, they'll shoot him up and I think he'll give it a go

I don't think the Rams should be an underdog at all if anything I think we should be a home dog

As for the other games, here's how I see it playing out 

Bills

Bengals

Both win

I have a small lean on the 9ners too but just to be safe I'd take the +6

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OK, this weekend's card...

ATS/ML/RACE

SAT

CIN ML +170, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) - I expect a close game, and if CIN's going to win, it's almost certainly with them putting TEN in catchup gamescript, so there's a lot of value in taking the chase $ here.    Hendrickson returning, and Burrow being able to use the 3 WR's and Mixon in the pass game, while I do think Henry has some rust to shake off.   Keep in mind I've got SB tickets on TEN/CIN/BUF in the AFC (and SF/LAR in the NFC), with E/W (so winning the conference wins me $$ too).   So I'll take either result, but hopefully CIN gets to 20/25 first no matter what.  😃

SF +6, SF 1Q ML +140 - I'm not going to bet against A-Rod outright - but I do think where Shanahan excels is creating early advantages, and so I'm willing to take +money on a 1Q lead (and if it's tied, it pushes).    Ultimately, I'll take the points here game-wise, but I do think the 1Q ML has a ton of equity, given what we've seen SF do time and again with fast starts.

SUN

LAR +140, RACE to 25/30 (+240 / +400) - I hate that Whitworth is out, this makes the game a lot closer than I originally saw.  But I do not believe that Jensen or Wirfs are going to be effective.   That swings the OL/DL matchups heavily to both D's now - and TB12's weapon limitations with inside and outside pressure, that's a problem.  I see TAM winning this with a 2+ TO advantage, but if it's TO neutral, I think we'll see the LAR weapons expose TAM's secondary vulnerabilities.   I also have to take a shot on the RACES, because if it's a LAR win, I think it's a dominant one.   

BUF +110, RACE to 30/35 (+240 / +400) - nothing but respect for KC.  This is just a case where BUF matches up in a tough way for KC - Allen presents huge problems, and unlike last year, they've got a lot more diversity with Knox/Davis both taking a huge leap in their play this year, and Isaiah McKenzie providing the C-Patt type hybrid RB/WR weapon.    On the flip side, the BUF D is far better at run D than last year, so I'll take BUF.   Same deal as the other dogs - if I'm going to take the dogs ML, might as well take a shot on the tasty RACE +money payouts.

I do have a 5-leg 0.5U parley with the 4 ATS/ML plays above (combined with OBJ hitting his O46.5 rec yd prop on MNF WC game) at +5800 as well.   So that's 8.5U in play.

 

PLAYER PROPS

SAT

Joe Burrow O275.5 pass yds 2U - if CIN is going to be competitive, it's going to be the Burrow air show.   IMO this number is 25 yards too low.   So it's a 2U play.

Tyler Boyd O4.5 catches +160 2U - this is the best matchup assuming Janoris Jenkins plays, and the +160 is just crazy for what I think is a 50-50 or better play.  So it's worth 2U as well.

Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 rec yds - when Chase & Fulton have so much familiarity, and Burrow does too - IMO the edge goes to the QB-WR connection.   It doesn't have to be a ton of catches, either - we could see 1-2 40+ yard plays here. 

Eli Mitchell O79.5 rush yds - if JimmyG is hurting, then I expect a ton of short passes and runs (Deebo rush props are very appealing).   When SF wins, Mitchell actually goes past the 100+ yard mark, so while I'm not sure they win, I am confident in Shanny leaning on the run game barring an early large deficit.   So this is an easy play.

George Kittle O49.5 rec yds - I know Kittle's been a ghost for the last 3+ games.   But this is a game that sets up for him to have a huge day, with the short pass / drag route options.   Now that the # is below 50 yards, it's an easy call with how JimmyG's physical limitations are going to promote looking his way.  And with his YAC ability, we could break this in just 2+ catches. 

SUN

Odell Beckham O47.5 rec yds 2U - I can't imagine TAM won't try to take Kupp away much like we saw ARI try.  That only opens things up for OBJ, and it's clear Stafford looks his way.

Stefon Diggs O71.5 rec yds - KC is absolutely a strong pass D.  But when they do give up yards, they give it up in the 15-25 yard area.   Diggs may not get 7+ grabs, but I'm quite confident he'll get 80+ yards.   It's only a 15 percent margin, so I'm sticking with the 1U play.

Devon Singletary O60.5 rush yds - I do think KC will try to dare BUF to run the ball - and so that means more room for Singletary to operate.   This isn't a 2U play, because gamescript could change things, but I can't pass this up either.

Along with the plays above, I have a 6-leg with all of the above except Singletary for a cool +10000 0.5U lol.    So that's 11.5U in play here.    I would have been very interested in the Pringle catch props for +money (I'm thinking O3.5 +140 or better), as I think he'll have the best matchup - but there are no KC catch props.  

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

SAT

Aaron Rodgers +900 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - this reflects that SF's run D will key on the RB's and in RZ situations, they're always vulnerable to A-Rod getting out of the pocket.   Or a QB sneak if you get to the 1 yard line. So a rush A-Rod TD isn't at all out of the Q.   At these odds, gotta take a stab. 


SUN

OJ Howard +900 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - it was missed in last week's game, but OBJ was in on a lot of big formations, and they did have a RZ screen, and had him in 12 formation at the GL.   That sets up for some very tasty TD opps, at +900 it's worth a stab.

Noah Gray +2500 / +12500 2+ (0.55U / 0.05U) - Blake Bell is at +850, and I may add on, if the weekend is going well.  I just think with BUF's secondary, you have to think of the decoy targets here, and away from the WR's.

This puts 2.0U in play for longshot TD's, so I've got a total of 22.0U in play this weekend.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 19 (WC Round)

ATS 61-48; 16-20 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +127.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 170-163, +31.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +38.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +197.9U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U)

Edited by Broncofan
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Joe Burrow over 276.5 yards passing (2u) - Same idea everyone else has. Ever since Reiff went down, our effectiveness rushing the ball has dropped off significantly. I don’t think we find ground success versus TENs #2 ranked run defense, but they are proven to be susceptible to the pass. This game falls on Joey B airing it out. 

Tee Higgins over 62.5 yards receiving, and Ja’Marr Chase over 76.5 yards receiving (1u each) - Again, this falls in with the theme above. Both receivers outmatch TENs corners. Both will get theirs.

Denico Autry to record a sack +185, and Jeffrey Simmons to record a sack +195 (1u each) - No matter how much we game plan around our line, we are going to give up a few sacks. The weakness of this unit is undoubtedly the interior, which matches up poorly with TEN. TEN is also great versus the run, increasing the drop backs for Burrow and the likelihood to find himself in pass rushing situations. TEN doesn’t blitz either, so if they get home, they’ll get home with 4. At plus odds, I’ll gladly take both hoping one or both hit.

Also going to tail a few @Broncofan picks. Good luck everyone.

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