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13 minutes ago, biggie. said:

I'm going to bet on SF straight up beating LAR. Mentally tougher team.

I'd wait to get the injury reports on Deebo, Kittle, and most importantly, Trent Williams first.    All 3 looked really iffy by the end of the last drive, and Williams in particular worrisome for a HAS.   

SF's ability to win games is predicated on 3 things:

1.  Leaning on the run game and short/middle field pass game.

2.  Letting the SF DL dominate and cover for the CB's.

3.  Limiting JimmyG's weaknesses and opportunities to give the game away.

#1 & #3 are massively affected by Williams if he's not there.   I get that SF is a terrible matchup for LAR, much like how NO is a terrible matchup for Tampa.     But those player injuries, if they can't play, are massive (especialy if the Rams get Whitworth, Rapp & Ernest Jones back - really shores up their weak areas, although Noteboom really played well today at LT).

Edited by Broncofan
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On 1/19/2022 at 12:45 AM, N4L said:

This week I am going to be teasing the niners, rams, bills up into double digits

I will be doing a round robin. That's three, two team parlays with eag leg of the teaser being +10 or more. I like all three to win outright so getting two scores feels like great insurance. I am essentially paying extra juice while being forced to put them into two+ team parlays. I will pay for the extra point or two in a teaser to break key numbers. I have zero issues doing that. Would rather bet another 10% and play it to win the standard amount. 

It's also nice to have your bets structured in different timeslots. I already took a shot on a three team teaser on monday (rams, over 42.5, SF+11.5) to set me up for the first leg of my three team robin for this weekend (SF +11.5). I then placed (sf+13, LAR+10) and (SF+13, LAR+10, BUF+9) on Tuesday. 

Typically, the problem with parlays/teasers which have legs in different time slots is that you can win the first one and lose the second one and lose your bet. The way I have that structured is so each time the underdog covers the multi score spread, I cash a ticket. I already hit the Rams, over 43 teaser on Monday lol 

Because each game is in a different timeslot and I structured it the way I did, I can now take straight bet shots on each dog on the moneyline for an amount that is relative to my teaser profit margin. I'm going to see how things play out this week but I really think that the Rams, niners, and bills are very live dogs

I will probably need to play the SF/BUF and BUF/LAR teasers as well to not be over exposed to one game (currently over exposed to SF+13 relative to the risk) 

Hopefully, I can win the first two and go into that KC/BUF with a large amount of money on a combination of teasers. It's nice to sit back when you know you have the absolute best number possible for the final bet of a great weekend 

I won every bet I placed this weekend, including a very large SF/LAR ML parlay 

To the bolded - having 9/10 points for the Bills on numerous teasers and being able to just enjoy that game for what it was worked out better than I could have ever imagined. 

 

This week I am going to keep it very simple. The 49ers are 3 point underdogs again. I am going to do the same thing I have done the last three weeks and tease them up to 10 (last week was 12/13 obviously). The niners are very beat up, or at least, they looked beat up in the cold on a short week after having to travel so much over the last few weeks. They have an extra day and can fly into LA on Saturday afternoon rather than Friday, and that makes a huge difference. Trent Williams playing/not playing will be a huge factor. would love to wait for news about that, but we arent going to get it before saturday or sunday and I dont want the line to go to 2.5.

The rams are a damn good football team and the niners are in for a dog fight. 10 points is a lot of points to have in your back pocket. 

 

KC is -7 so I am teasing it down to a pickem. Ultimately its more likely KC wins than loses. Bengals beat them once already and they certainly have a shot to do so again. KC may just be a higher class than the Bengals and they should win this game more often than not. Its nice to simply have them to win.  

I am also going to play a SF+10 and CIN+14 teaser risking 50% of the KC teaser profit. I do like the Bengals to keep it within a two score game because of the weapons they have on their offense and how freaking good Joe Burrow is. 

The expectation is to win both of the KC-0 and CIN+14 legs and catch a nice middle heading into the second game. If I hit both, I can win 135% of my profit of the KC/SF teaser alone, but if the bengals win the game outright then I will only lose a little more than 60% based on the juice. If KC wins by 15+ then I still make a nice profit. Obviously this is banking on the niners covering 10 points though lol 

 

I am going to consider doing a three leg teaser with all of them lol I do think cincy will be competitive. I am starting to wonder about the totals. The public loves overs but both games might be lower scoring than people anticipate. 

Edited by N4L
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11 hours ago, N4L said:

I won every bet I placed this weekend, including a very large SF/LAR ML parlay 

To the bolded - having 9/10 points for the Bills on numerous teasers and being able to just enjoy that game for what it was worked out better than I could have ever imagined. 

 

This week I am going to keep it very simple. The 49ers are 3 point underdogs again. I am going to do the same thing I have done the last three weeks and tease them up to 10 (last week was 12/13 obviously). The niners are very beat up, or at least, they looked beat up in the cold on a short week after having to travel so much over the last few weeks. They have an extra day and can fly into LA on Saturday afternoon rather than Friday, and that makes a huge difference. Trent Williams playing/not playing will be a huge factor. would love to wait for news about that, but we arent going to get it before saturday or sunday and I dont want the line to go to 2.5.

The rams are a damn good football team and the niners are in for a dog fight. 10 points is a lot of points to have in your back pocket. 

 

KC is -7 so I am teasing it down to a pickem. Ultimately its more likely KC wins than loses. Bengals beat them once already and they certainly have a shot to do so again. KC may just be a higher class than the Bengals and they should win this game more often than not. Its nice to simply have them to win.  

I am also going to play a SF+10 and CIN+14 teaser risking 50% of the KC teaser profit. I do like the Bengals to keep it within a two score game because of the weapons they have on their offense and how freaking good Joe Burrow is. 

The expectation is to win both of the KC-0 and CIN+14 legs and catch a nice middle heading into the second game. If I hit both, I can win 135% of my profit of the KC/SF teaser alone, but if the bengals win the game outright then I will only lose a little more than 60% based on the juice. If KC wins by 15+ then I still make a nice profit. Obviously this is banking on the niners covering 10 points though lol 

 

I am going to consider doing a three leg teaser with all of them lol I do think cincy will be competitive. I am starting to wonder about the totals. The public loves overs but both games might be lower scoring than people anticipate. 

My only feedback is I’d back CIN +14 more aggressively.   The effects of playing OT and all-time great games is almost always a hangover the next week early on, and overall.   Cincy getting the extra day makes a big diff after the KC night game and the physical toll associated with OT.  The one key caveat is Trey Hendrickson has to be ok.   
 

I think the CIN +7 is probably 2-3 pts too far to KC to begin with.   I don’t think CIN is winning enough to go heavy (but I will put 1 yolo parley with cin ML) but right away I’d go CIN +7.  So teaser wise CIN +14 feels safer imo.  I think there’s a higher probability CIN wins (25-30 percent)  than KC blows CIN out by 15+ (10-15).  
 

I also think the line will contract below 3.5 so if you like SF you lock that in earlier.  And yes I’m on LAR if it gets there and Williams is out - it just changes the SF O dynamic so much.   But SF +10.5 is a lot safer than LAR +3.5 as a teaser.  If nothing else McVay game management should let the opposition get close lol.  

Edited by Broncofan
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I hate teasers so I'm going to roll with whats worked so far- 3 units on SF moneyline, and various player props.

Kyle Juszczyk TD +750 BETMGM
Brandon Aiyuk TD +270 FD
Joe Burrow rush TD +600 BetRivers
Burrow O 8.5 rushing yards
Kelce over 72.5 rec yards 
 

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Draft Kings has a Mahomes and Burrow combined for 600yds at +150.  I'm smashing that bet...

Also taking Chase, Higgins and Boyd each to have +50 yds at +330 with a much smaller bet

 

Edited by 101Raider
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I wasnt planning on doing any player props this weekend but there are a few I cannot ignore:

Mixon over 3.5 receptions, over 30.5 yards rec 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/KC/teambreakdown/standard As you can see, KC's D has given up a lot of receptions to RBs. Mixon is an excellent pass catcher. KC likes to blitz, Bengals like to call screen passes to mixon. KC will have their hands full with Chase and Higgins so they wont have much choice but to give up some passes underneath to Mixon

The bengals know their OL will have issues blocking KC and they will find ways to make sure burrow doesnt always have to take sacks. They will want to get the ball out quickly. The backend of KCs defense tackles extremely poorly. If I am CIN, I am going to call a lot of bubble screens and quick hitters early in the game to try and get the KC defense on its heels. That is why I like the over 24.5 completions from Burrow. Its a bet that is not game script dependent. If the bengals are losing, they will be throwing, if they are winning, they will be executing a quick passing game of high percentage throws to keep the clock running while still putting pressure on KC to tackle on the back end. 

The bengals give up more rec to RBs than just about anyone. I am tempted to take the over rec yards for Mckinnon as well, he seems to be very involved in their offense recently, but its a bit cloudy as far as how the RB snaps are going to get split in that backfield and Mahomes doesnt throw to RBs on plays that arent designed screens. He likes to go downfield too much. 

 

As for the niners/rams:

Elijah Mitchell is banged up. He looked bad to me last week in the cold. He is a tough dude and is going to play, but I really dont know how effective he will be. Meanwhile, Deebo has a ton of juice rushing the ball. This feels like the week to ride deebo, consequences be damned. If we win, he will have a bye week to rest up. 49ers are absolutely going to run the ball. The rams will probably come out in some kind of bear front to try and keep gap discipline, but 40 yards rushing for deebo when the niners will run the ball and when he is by far their best runner? Feels too easy.

I also see that deebo is +650 to lead the weekend in rushing. I am hammering this. Rams wont be able to run the ball against the niners front. KC has ran more recently but they will rotate backs and I dont think they really want to stick to the run. The bengals might struggle in getting mixon loose in the run game up the middle, they may need to give him more runs to the edges, but ultimately if that game turns into a shootout, Mixon wont break 100 yards rushing. So its absolutely worth a shot. 

This kind of reminds me of the 2019 championship weekend when I made a +1000 bet on Raheem Mostert to have the most rushing yards for the weekend. He more than doubled the next guy lol he had 200+ and no one else had 100. 

Give me the under in Cam Akers rushing total. The niners DL has whooped the rams OL and they wont be able to run on this front. McVay has had issues the past few years of abandoning the run too early if its not working. It wont be working early, and the niners rush D has been #1 in the NFL since week 10 or something. It will be tough sledding for them.

 

I did a small CIN/SF ML parlay, I usually never make those bets but I did last week with SF/LAR and there is absolutely a real path for CIN to win the early game and give me incredible odds heading into the late game.  I followed Broncofan's advice and went heavier on the CIN+14/SF+10 teaser than my KC-0/SF+10 teaser. Ideally, I win both legs of those and have the best number possible for a team that I think is going to win outright. If KC wins a close game, I may take a shot on the niners ML because its just good value. Kittle and the boys seem extremely confident. 

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5 hours ago, N4L said:

I wasnt planning on doing any player props this weekend but there are a few I cannot ignore:

Mixon over 3.5 receptions, over 30.5 yards rec 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/KC/teambreakdown/standard As you can see, KC's D has given up a lot of receptions to RBs. Mixon is an excellent pass catcher. KC likes to blitz, Bengals like to call screen passes to mixon. KC will have their hands full with Chase and Higgins so they wont have much choice but to give up some passes underneath to Mixon

The bengals know their OL will have issues blocking KC and they will find ways to make sure burrow doesnt always have to take sacks. They will want to get the ball out quickly. The backend of KCs defense tackles extremely poorly. If I am CIN, I am going to call a lot of bubble screens and quick hitters early in the game to try and get the KC defense on its heels. That is why I like the over 24.5 completions from Burrow. Its a bet that is not game script dependent. If the bengals are losing, they will be throwing, if they are winning, they will be executing a quick passing game of high percentage throws to keep the clock running while still putting pressure on KC to tackle on the back end. 

The bengals give up more rec to RBs than just about anyone. I am tempted to take the over rec yards for Mckinnon as well, he seems to be very involved in their offense recently, but its a bit cloudy as far as how the RB snaps are going to get split in that backfield and Mahomes doesnt throw to RBs on plays that arent designed screens. He likes to go downfield too much. 

 

As for the niners/rams:

Elijah Mitchell is banged up. He looked bad to me last week in the cold. He is a tough dude and is going to play, but I really dont know how effective he will be. Meanwhile, Deebo has a ton of juice rushing the ball. This feels like the week to ride deebo, consequences be damned. If we win, he will have a bye week to rest up. 49ers are absolutely going to run the ball. The rams will probably come out in some kind of bear front to try and keep gap discipline, but 40 yards rushing for deebo when the niners will run the ball and when he is by far their best runner? Feels too easy.

I also see that deebo is +650 to lead the weekend in rushing. I am hammering this. Rams wont be able to run the ball against the niners front. KC has ran more recently but they will rotate backs and I dont think they really want to stick to the run. The bengals might struggle in getting mixon loose in the run game up the middle, they may need to give him more runs to the edges, but ultimately if that game turns into a shootout, Mixon wont break 100 yards rushing. So its absolutely worth a shot. 

This kind of reminds me of the 2019 championship weekend when I made a +1000 bet on Raheem Mostert to have the most rushing yards for the weekend. He more than doubled the next guy lol he had 200+ and no one else had 100. 

Give me the under in Cam Akers rushing total. The niners DL has whooped the rams OL and they wont be able to run on this front. McVay has had issues the past few years of abandoning the run too early if its not working. It wont be working early, and the niners rush D has been #1 in the NFL since week 10 or something. It will be tough sledding for them.

 

I did a small CIN/SF ML parlay, I usually never make those bets but I did last week with SF/LAR and there is absolutely a real path for CIN to win the early game and give me incredible odds heading into the late game.  I followed Broncofan's advice and went heavier on the CIN+14/SF+10 teaser than my KC-0/SF+10 teaser. Ideally, I win both legs of those and have the best number possible for a team that I think is going to win outright. If KC wins a close game, I may take a shot on the niners ML because its just good value. Kittle and the boys seem extremely confident. 

Deebo is up to +800, I just jumped on that. Definitely with you on Akers/Mixon/Burrow too

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Not much to add, love the Deebo O39.5 rush yds for 2U, and Mixon O31.5 rec yds for 1U, and will take a stab at Deebo rush leader for +700.    I have a JimmyG O0.5INT bet as well.   I don't have as much action as I'm leveraged for the SB with 3 teams already covered to win 80U+ if they win the SB - LAR/SF & CIN.  

I have CIN +7.5 and LAR -2.5 from earlier in week, thinking that Trent Williams isn't playing.  BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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On 1/13/2022 at 12:12 AM, Broncofan said:

I already put 2U on TEN +1400, and I figured that either CIN/BUF were likely going to be playing them.   So I took Georgia -2.5 / CHA NBA ML +120 / PHI NBA -6.5 & added SB props on CIN/SF & 1U plays on BUF/LAR/DAL with that 3-leg play (using the $$ from the reg season, i figured I could play with 10U on Monday).   I also took the 3-leg play for 2U and both single bets, so Monday was a great night lol - now it puts me in play.

The end result - I've got 6U worth of tickets on TEN for 28U, CIN & BUF for 40U each now - basically playing the field against KC in the AFC.   PIT, NE & LV, I just don't see them making long runs.   For the NFC, I now have DAL/SF/LAR for 40U - again, I'm playing the field against TAM & GB.   I don't see PHI or ARI as able to make long runs because of the gaps in their roster.   

As someone who backed TAM hard last year and made a TON of $$ (from start to finish, I made over 100U with their playoff run), it's nothing personal - but their WR injuries and their holes on D, I just don't see them being overcome.  GB/KC are deservedly seen as favorites, but the odds don't represent much value.   If it comes down to the NFCG/AFCG against 1 of my 3 teams then I'm going to hedge them like crazy lol.  

 

 

So I finished 2-0 ATS with CIN +7.5 and taking LAR -2.5 early on in the week....and 1-3 with player props (JimmyG INT only one that hit, losing the 2U Mixon prop) - so I'm down 1.2U for the day, but it's the happiest -1.2U - because of the SB props I took above just hit for 40U SB winner props each on BOTH LAR & CIN.   And the nice part - I'm going to get 13U from the loser since I took the E/W (1/3 of 40U for getting to SB), so I'm guaranteed a 53U win for the SB - I can just sit back and relax.   As a guy who had BUF/CIN/LAR/SF, I was sweating the end of LAR/TAM and BUF/KC and then CIN/KC - figured I was going to get screwed by TAM/KC.   

This will cap off a fantastic 2022 - locking in a 250U+ season.   Going to enjoy the SB SO MUCH.   

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 19 (WC Round)

ATS 66-50; 18-22 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +134.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 175-170, +29.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-83 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +36.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +200.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U  Week 20 <Division Weekend> - +3.2U   Week 21 <Conf Championship Weekend> -1.0U)

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18 hours ago, adamq said:

Jeez I feel dumb for not maxing out every app on that Burrow rushing yard prop.. 8.5 🤣

This and a 20-1 parlay (Hill/Kelce/Deebo/Kupp tds with SF +3.5) still put me in the black, but boy it could have been so much better. Took Jimmy G 275+ pass yards/49ers to win at +1600 after the first quarter for 1u. 😑

Edited by adamq
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1 hour ago, adamq said:

This and a 20-1 parlay (Hill/Kelce/Deebo/Kupp tds with SF +3.5) still put me in the black, but boy it could have been so much better. Took Jimmy G 275+ pass yards/49ers to win at +1600 after the first quarter for 1u. 😑

Taking a SF W combined with JimmyG playing well was the mistake.   

(Not trying to give you a hard time, just saying when SF loses, it's invariably because JimmyG doesn't play well...along with Shanny's game management problems).    It's also why going with the under with McVay/Shanny games is more profitable than ppl realize.

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