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1 hour ago, MikeT14 said:

I'm on the Bengals +4 and the under of 50

One trend I don't think ppl appreciate - unless you get amazing O execution and/or hyper-aggressive game managers, playoff games are almost always going under in close games - because the tendency to take the air out of the ball and limit the opponent's access to the ball is a LOT more prevalent in the playoffs.   I mean, it's a general concept overall - but playoff teams are able to better execute on those advanced ideas.

Take CIN-KC - there was something like 11 minutes left in the game - and both teams got ONE drive each.    When you add conservative game managers like McVay/Shanny to the mix, the under is an undervalued play - especially once the casual $ comes in.  Because casual $ always leans to the over by default.

Apparently 80+ percent of the $ yesterday was on CIN-KC over, for example.   Something to keep in mind for future playoff years, too.   As more aggressive game-manager HC's enter the fray, maybe it changes.  But if we're anticipating a tight game with McVay involved...yeah, give me the under.   Shanny outdid him, but McVay is right up there with conservative play-calling.

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On 1/29/2022 at 11:30 PM, N4L said:

I wasnt planning on doing any player props this weekend but there are a few I cannot ignore:

Mixon over 3.5 receptions, over 30.5 yards rec 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/KC/teambreakdown/standard As you can see, KC's D has given up a lot of receptions to RBs. Mixon is an excellent pass catcher. KC likes to blitz, Bengals like to call screen passes to mixon. KC will have their hands full with Chase and Higgins so they wont have much choice but to give up some passes underneath to Mixon

The bengals know their OL will have issues blocking KC and they will find ways to make sure burrow doesnt always have to take sacks. They will want to get the ball out quickly. The backend of KCs defense tackles extremely poorly. If I am CIN, I am going to call a lot of bubble screens and quick hitters early in the game to try and get the KC defense on its heels. That is why I like the over 24.5 completions from Burrow. Its a bet that is not game script dependent. If the bengals are losing, they will be throwing, if they are winning, they will be executing a quick passing game of high percentage throws to keep the clock running while still putting pressure on KC to tackle on the back end. 

The bengals give up more rec to RBs than just about anyone. I am tempted to take the over rec yards for Mckinnon as well, he seems to be very involved in their offense recently, but its a bit cloudy as far as how the RB snaps are going to get split in that backfield and Mahomes doesnt throw to RBs on plays that arent designed screens. He likes to go downfield too much. 

 

As for the niners/rams:

Elijah Mitchell is banged up. He looked bad to me last week in the cold. He is a tough dude and is going to play, but I really dont know how effective he will be. Meanwhile, Deebo has a ton of juice rushing the ball. This feels like the week to ride deebo, consequences be damned. If we win, he will have a bye week to rest up. 49ers are absolutely going to run the ball. The rams will probably come out in some kind of bear front to try and keep gap discipline, but 40 yards rushing for deebo when the niners will run the ball and when he is by far their best runner? Feels too easy.

I also see that deebo is +650 to lead the weekend in rushing. I am hammering this. Rams wont be able to run the ball against the niners front. KC has ran more recently but they will rotate backs and I dont think they really want to stick to the run. The bengals might struggle in getting mixon loose in the run game up the middle, they may need to give him more runs to the edges, but ultimately if that game turns into a shootout, Mixon wont break 100 yards rushing. So its absolutely worth a shot. 

This kind of reminds me of the 2019 championship weekend when I made a +1000 bet on Raheem Mostert to have the most rushing yards for the weekend. He more than doubled the next guy lol he had 200+ and no one else had 100. 

Give me the under in Cam Akers rushing total. The niners DL has whooped the rams OL and they wont be able to run on this front. McVay has had issues the past few years of abandoning the run too early if its not working. It wont be working early, and the niners rush D has been #1 in the NFL since week 10 or something. It will be tough sledding for them.

 

I did a small CIN/SF ML parlay, I usually never make those bets but I did last week with SF/LAR and there is absolutely a real path for CIN to win the early game and give me incredible odds heading into the late game.  I followed Broncofan's advice and went heavier on the CIN+14/SF+10 teaser than my KC-0/SF+10 teaser. Ideally, I win both legs of those and have the best number possible for a team that I think is going to win outright. If KC wins a close game, I may take a shot on the niners ML because its just good value. Kittle and the boys seem extremely confident. 

shoutout to @Broncofan for convincing me to move the majority of my teasers to CIN+14 and for telling me to take the bengals to win the superbowl for +800. Took some more capital to be able to do it and I was banking hard on the niners covering the +10 since they were on every ticket lol The niners +10 was never really in doubt. I played it heavy. Didnt do well on the props but the teasers keep cashing.

Mixon had 2 catches on the first drive and then only one more for the rest of the game. Tough. Burrow came up 2 completions short because the bengals were running the ball very well at the end of the game. 

Rams didnt let Deebo get loose. Made a point not to let him beat them. 

Cam Akers looked like he was going to go for over 60 yards but ended up banging his shoulder and missing some time. so that was the only prop I hit that won lol 

I am so mad I didnt do a CIN/SF+3.5 parlay but instead went with the 49ers ML. Got a bit greedy on that one. This is why I typically just take the points on parlays. I do not recommend plus money ML parlays. plus money means you gotta bet it straight because the house is telling you they think it is more likely than not you lose your bet. So you would hate to win that leg of a parlay but lose your bet because some other team blew it. 

 

 

My initial instinct before I saw the line was that the Rams should be favored and probably have the higher % chance to win the game. I like the fact the line is 4 points because it lets me tease CIN up to +11, which is a FG, and TD+2pt conversion. 11 is a number that a team who is losing will go for two to get to, or will be trailing by if they kick a FG and the other team scores two TDs. So mathmatically, its nice to have that extra 1 point on that leg of the 7 point teaser. 

Ive had great success this postseason with getting teasers above that 10 point threshold and this feels like another week where I have plus double digits in my pocket for a close game that comes down to the final possession or two.

The other leg of the teaser will be Rams +3 because I like them to win the game, but now I have 3 extra points to play with. 

I may take the under as a teaser leg as well. further research is required on that front. 

Probably wont take any/many props but Mixon over rushing could be the move. The rams wont try and gear up for the bengals running game like they did against the niners, which means the bengals should try and run the ball right at aaron donald like the niners usually do. 

Edited by N4L
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5 hours ago, N4L said:

shoutout to @Broncofan for convincing me to move the majority of my teasers to CIN+14 and for telling me to take the bengals to win the superbowl for +800. Took some more capital to be able to do it and I was banking hard on the niners covering the +10 since they were on every ticket lol The niners +10 was never really in doubt. I played it heavy. Didnt do well on the props but the teasers keep cashing.

Mixon had 2 catches on the first drive and then only one more for the rest of the game. Tough. Burrow came up 2 completions short because the bengals were running the ball very well at the end of the game. 

Rams didnt let Deebo get loose. Made a point not to let him beat them. 

Cam Akers looked like he was going to go for over 60 yards but ended up banging his shoulder and missing some time. so that was the only prop I hit that won lol 

I am so mad I didnt do a CIN/SF+3.5 parlay but instead went with the 49ers ML. Got a bit greedy on that one. This is why I typically just take the points on parlays. I do not recommend plus money ML parlays. plus money means you gotta bet it straight because the house is telling you they think it is more likely than not you lose your bet. So you would hate to win that leg of a parlay but lose your bet because some other team blew it. 

 

 

My initial instinct before I saw the line was that the Rams should be favored and probably have the higher % chance to win the game. I like the fact the line is 4 points because it lets me tease CIN up to +11, which is a FG, and TD+2pt conversion. 11 is a number that a team who is losing will go for two to get to, or will be trailing by if they kick a FG and the other team scores two TDs. So mathmatically, its nice to have that extra 1 point on that leg of the 7 point teaser. 

Ive had great success this postseason with getting teasers above that 10 point threshold and this feels like another week where I have plus double digits in my pocket for a close game that comes down to the final possession or two.

The other leg of the teaser will be Rams +3 because I like them to win the game, but now I have 3 extra points to play with. 

I may take the under as a teaser leg as well. further research is required on that front. 

Probably wont take any/many props but Mixon over rushing could be the move. The rams wont try and gear up for the bengals running game like they did against the niners, which means the bengals should try and run the ball right at aaron donald like the niners usually do. 

I don't do teasers, but I would much rather do +11 dog teasers than have the favorite go to +3, for example, for 2 main reasons:

1.   You're wasting 1 of the teaser points by going from - to +.   Going to +3 means a lot of L's are pushes.   And in a SB, there is no tie.   It's a theoretical issue, but the data shows that crossing from - to +3 isn't as successful as giving a dog more points.

2.  More importantly, in this game - giving CIN more points is allowing them to simply cover by Sean McVay letting them back into the game.   Shanny's game management is getting all the coverage, but the reality is McVay isn't any better in being far too conservative.    I still have the Rams winning, and my gut instinct say it's something like 24-17 or 24-20, the line being 4-4.5 feels right...but I think it's far more likely LAR is winning 24-10 and then McVay conservative mode kicks in hard, and CIN comes back.      If LAR is only up 10 pts, then the 11 pt tease already wins, and even if LAR is up 17....McVay mode will give CIN a shot to get back in the game.

I'd see CIN with a 35 percent chance of winning, and an additional 20 percent chance of covering 4 pts...but I think you boost it to 75+ percent they can keep it to 10 or less.   So that's my lean if I were forced to go that way.   I'd also lean to the under so if it's CIN +11.5 / U 56.5 or U57, think that's how to proceed.

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11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

1.   You're wasting 1 of the teaser points by going from - to +.   Going to +3 means a lot of L's are pushes.   And in a SB, there is no tie.   It's a theoretical issue, but the data shows that crossing from - to +3 isn't as successful as giving a dog more points.

Typically, I agree with this. The value isnt really great on that side of the teaser, but in this instance, I think it makes sense because I really do think the Rams are going to win the game outright. So having three points of insurance so to speak is not the worst thing.

It is A LOT less appealing if it was +2.5 because those points probably dont matter and I wouldnt include it as a leg of my teaser. Thats why I was comfortable with the line being 4, as it still allows me to snag those insurance points but allows me to get to over 10 on the other side. 

I will say that my book does push teasers with legs that push as long as the others win. Some books say that is a losing ticket. So if the bengals win by 3, I still get my money back here. Which isnt the worst thing. Definitely something to know about your book. I would have a lot less confidence if bengals winning by 3 meant I lost the bet. 

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So that's my lean if I were forced to go that way.   I'd also lean to the under so if it's CIN +11.5 / U 56.5 or U57, think that's how to proceed.

Do you think the line will rise above 4? 

The total will probably go up just because the public loves overs, right? 

If the line goes above 4, then the rams +3 is a lot more expensive and probably not worth including as a teaser leg

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Also, I will take this opportunity to point out that teasing spreads carries significantly more value than teasing totals.

Football spreads are really the only thing that should be teased with the expectation of being profitable over the long run. The points are worth more in football than other sports. 

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Just now, N4L said:

Also, I will take this opportunity to point out that teasing spreads carries significantly more value than teasing totals.

Football spreads are really the only thing that should be teased with the expectation of being profitable over the long run. The points are worth more in football than other sports. 

Teasing totals absolutely lose money in the long run.   Spread teasers work a lot better for sure. Just there aren’t many combos with 1 game left. 

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Just now, Broncofan said:

Teasing totals absolutely lose money in the long run.   Spread teasers work a lot better for sure. Just there aren’t many combos with 1 game left. 

I was literally going to make this the last sentence of my post lol 

I do like the under this week and it does make sense in this instance, I think. 

I just wanted to say that in a general sense, people should be teasing spreads if they are going to play teasers. 

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With the Senior Bowl practices done I think we have our first draft longshot value - Malik Willis 1.1 at +8000.    I’m hoping 1.2 gets released soon and is +4000 or better.   Both are worth 1U plays.  
 

Why?  Well it’s becoming clear the draft is deep with trench help.   But Willis is starting to show that tools-insane ceiling we saw with Trey Lance.     And we saw Kyler helium pass Nick Bosa.    Now obv JAX isn’t taking QB.   But the trench depth also means they may be very open to trading down.  That’s a huge reason why it’s +8000 now.   But I’m also convinced Willis is likely the top QB off the board.   And that means +8000 is insane no matter if JAX is there.   Because there is no consensus 1.1 it makes a trade-back more possible.  I’m just hoping I can take 1.2 at +4000 as I’d be very much on Willis making that leap (and as top QB with the insane ceiling - which is now the narrative post-SB) - is very possible.  We’ve seen it before.  
 

As long as JAX owns 1.1 it’s not happening.  But I’d put a trade back as a 15-20 percent probability.  And it’s only going to be for a QB IMO.   At 1.2 the scenarios really open up.   Why Id be happy even if it’s “only” +4000 or more there. 

 

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22 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Haven’t looked through this thread but if you like the Rams to win why go ML or the -4.5 and not just go with Stafford to win MVP at +135. In what way do the Rams win this game where Stafford is not the MVP. 

It's a good suggestion, but honestly I can see Aaron Donald winning the MVP and that would be my dark horse bet. He has a bigger reputation than Stafford and he's got a good matchup to thrive. If the game is close, and I suspect that's going to be the case, then it could come down to the defender who closes the game out. 

I do think the Rams will scheme the defensive line up predominantly to make it very difficult for the Bengals to get four hands on him, which we saw in the game against Tampa where Von and Donald almost lined up shoulder to shoulder. 

I really like the value from betting on Donald. 

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34 minutes ago, DerbyRam said:

It's a good suggestion, but honestly I can see Aaron Donald winning the MVP and that would be my dark horse bet. He has a bigger reputation than Stafford and he's got a good matchup to thrive. If the game is close, and I suspect that's going to be the case, then it could come down to the defender who closes the game out. 

I do think the Rams will scheme the defensive line up predominantly to make it very difficult for the Bengals to get four hands on him, which we saw in the game against Tampa where Von and Donald almost lined up shoulder to shoulder. 

I really like the value from betting on Donald. 

I mentioned it in the SB GB thread - but Donald at +1600 & Chase at +2000 or better represent pretty damn good value.  

TEN had 9 sacks on CIN in the Divisional round.    LAR does that, you could see a 3-sack, 1 TO performance by Donald, reminiscent of Von Miller's SB50 MVP performance.   Do I think it's likely?  I put it at a 15 percent chance, but I'm being offered a payout that assumes about a 6-7 percent chance.   

The same applies to Chase - if CIN wins, we've seen Chase goes nuts about 1/3 of the W's.   Even if you put Chase at "only" a 10-13 percent chance of doing it, we're being offered a payout at 5 percent probability.

If you're only going to make 1 bet a year, these aren't great values.    But if you bet consistently on longshots, these are the value plays that if you can ID correctly, you'll profit in the long run - realizing you'll miss a large amount of the time (but when you hit, it pays off the misses and then some).     I'll probably sprinkle a 0.5U on both, along with the 1U I have on Malik Willis +8000 at 1.1 (and hoping for 1U at +4000 for 1.2).   Most likely I lose 3U...but any 1 of those hits, it's a tidy profit, and the probability IMO outstrips the actual likelihood.

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1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

86% of total money of the over/under is on the Under. Yeah, that’s not hitting. 

I’m likely going Bengals ML, Over, and a small bet on Chase MVP. We will see. 

Before you hammer the over, just remember that if it's close, both McVay and Taylor will absolutely take the air out of the ball.   

As for the betting $, keep in mind the casual $ has yet to come in.    

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54 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

As for the betting $, keep in mind the casual $ has yet to come in.    

Yep, sharps bet early, public bets late. 

The public always takes the over. 

I am hoping the total goes up. If it goes down (reverse line movement), it will show that vegas knows its going under and is hoping to get more action on the over. 

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