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Bengals first drive results in punt -145

Last team to score on the first drive against the Rams was week 14 against the Cardinals. 7 straight punts only 7 first downs. 
 

Over 5.5 sacks in the game -105. Feels like this should be more juiced tbh. 

Edited by agarcia34
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On 2/12/2022 at 5:05 PM, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

 

Pretty light card, given that I've got SB winner cards on both the Bengals & Rams for 42U each, and the loser 14U.  But here goes....

LAR -3.0 1H - I think the Rams trench edges are such an advantage.   And McVay's conservative ways don't usually go crazy until the 2H (although the decision on 4th and short at CIN 40's might burn me here).    

CIN ML 2H +130 - to be clear, I'm saying CIN outscores LAR in the 2H.   I'm probably going to take the 4Q ML too once it becomes live.    I still think LAR wins the game, but this is all about Sean McVay's conservative game calling letting CIN catch up.   There's risk in that LAR could still win the 2H by getting a big 3Q, but I have enough trust in Burrow & McVay's conservative ways to play this.   This should be an even money prop, if not the usual -110 IMO, so I'm happy to take this.     I'll probably double down on this if LAR is up 10+ by halftime.

Joe Mixon O24.5 rec yards 2.2U to win 2U - been my favorite SB prop since the CG's ended.    Definitely worth 2U.

Kendall Blanton O29.5 rec yards 2.2U to win 2U - with Higbee out, Blanton becomes the main TE target - and CIN is so leaky to TE's.   Another 2U play.

Ja'Marr Chase O3.5 rush yards - the Chase run is a great way to get him the ball and to slow down the Rams pass rush.  I think this could be broken by the 1Q on 1 play, TBH.   

Odell Beckham O62.5 rec yards - I just love the matchup here, and it's so clear who the #2 guy is in LA now.    

Aaron Donald O1.5 sacks +150 - he's a -220 for 1 sack, so the value isn't great there, but given the interior pressure, I'm willing to take the plus money play on 2+ sacks. 

Ben Skowronek +1400 TD / +12500 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) - if this wasn't the last game of the year, it's likely only a 0.45U / 0.05U play...but YOLO.   He dropped a wide open TD, and CIN is not going to pay him much attention, so if there's a WTF TD, not a bad play...especially with Higbee out.    Worth a final longshot play.


MVP plays - Donald +1400, Chase +2200 both worth 1U each, the probability if CIN/LAR wins makes both much stronger plays at that number.   


With my SB ticket in for a guaranteed 56U win thanks to my taking LAR/CIN (along with BUF/TEN/DAL/SF) in those start-of-playoff 5-leg parleys (for which the 4-leg won solo 10U and paid off all the other props with profit), it's going to be the most enjoyable no-sweat SB ever.   But no reason we can't end it on a positive note prop-wise.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 22 (SUPER BOWL!)

ATS 66-50; 18-22 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +134.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 175-170, +29.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-83 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +36.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +200.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U  Week 20 <Division Weekend> - +3.2U   Week 21 <Conf Championship Weekend> -1.0U)

 

So with the 56U parley win on LAR SB (42U) and CIN runner-up (14U), it helps negate some really unfortunate injury-related L's (OBJ O63.5 easily hits as he had 2/53 before the injury in 1H, and Blanton's catches went to Hopkins for 4/44 but those were both 2U losses).   My LAR -3 and CIN 2H ML were both pushes, and my Chase O3.5 rush yards & Donald O1.5 sacks +150 wins, with no TD for Skowronek & no MVP for Donald (close!) & Chase (not really).   So it's a -5.5U day for the game, but a +50.5U week with the parleys in the bag.

That concludes a VERY profitable 2022 - >250U+ profit!   Now I ended up playing 35-40U per week (never more than 25U per Sunday as a general rule with a 100U stake), and so even with a 100U bankroll, that's amazing - keep in mind I probably placed about 850-900U in bets overall - which shows how bankroll management matters so much.  It basically means I came out with a +30% ROI ( but ended up betting 8x my bankroll over the entire season, but no more than 25% at any time <over many bets too>, which is an amazing return (even 5-10% is a good year).

A great finish to an awesome betting 2022!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 22 (SUPER BOWL!)

ATS 66-50; 18-22 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +190.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U), and then a SB-winner 5-leg prop for both LAR (42U) & CIN (runner-up EW bet for 14U) 

Player props - 177-173, +24.6U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-84 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +35.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +250.6U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U  Week 20 <Division Weekend> - +3.2U   Week 21 <Conf Championship Weekend> -1.0U, Week 22 <Super Bowl> +50.5U)

Edited by Broncofan
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On 2/8/2022 at 9:30 AM, SmittyBacall said:

I may have parlayed a Jessie Bates INT with Rams first half ML, Bengals ML at +5000…

Stafford has the tendency to throw the “punt” deep ball. Tartt dropped it last week - if Bates gets the opportunity he won’t. 

Salt in the wound was missing out on a 1k payout for this play…

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On 2/13/2022 at 8:45 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Salt in the wound was missing out on a 1k payout for this play…

I feel for you, that is brutal

Rams were overloading one side of the OL to get donald 1v1, the bengals needed to run to the other side where they had a huge numbers advantage. Mixon had a few chunk runs and they needed to stick with it

Feels like Taylor got caught in the heat of the moment

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6 hours ago, N4L said:

I feel for you, that is brutal

Rams were overloading one side of the OL to get donald 1v1, the bengals needed to run to the other side where they had a huge numbers advantage. Mixon had a few chunk runs and they needed to stick with it

Feels like Taylor got caught in the heat of the moment

He needs to give up the play sheet. Has a lot left to be desired in that regard.

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5 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

He needs to give up the play sheet. Has a lot left to be desired in that regard.

And he needs to stop thinking Mixon can't be the 3rd/4th down guy.  

Taylor went from "OMG-awful" to league-average this year.   His play calling got way more aggressive and pass-heavy in the 2H, which was much needed.    So at least there's hope that Taylor is truly evolving.  But the game calling in the 2H, and Mixon-on-bench on key run/RB pass plays....no bueno.

CIN needs 2 things to happen to be a legit sustained SB contender - fix the OL, and get better play-calling/game management.   It's pretty clear to everyone on #1, #2 isn't so clear (Taylor's improved, but his weaknesses negated what was an awful game plan and game management by a winning SB coach in a long time by McVay).    

To be blunt, taking CIN as a 2022 SB winner would be a bad bet IMO.   Just so many things go right to get to the SB that are out of a team's control.  And the likelihood both OL gets fixed AND Taylor figures it out, and doesn't stumble vs. a 1st place schedule and avoids big injuries...well, it's a long draw.  But I'll almost certainly have CIN in 2023 (yes, I think that far ahead), especially if they have a regression-bounce with a 1st place schedule.

And to be clear, I think CIN is going to be a great franchise to back for the next 8-10 years easy...as long as Joe Brr and Chase are healthy, and the GM/Brown's daughter keep making the right moves behind the scenes.   Just banking on a SB return the next year is pretty much fool's gold, unless you're the TB12/BB combo (and even then, it's no more than 50-50).

Edited by Broncofan
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5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Taylor went from "OMG-awful" to league-average this year.   His play calling got way more aggressive and pass-heavy in the 2H, which was much needed.    So at least there's hope that Taylor is truly evolving.  But the game calling in the 2H, and Mixon-on-bench on key run/RB pass plays....no bueno.

I’m not a big ZT play-caller fan, but I can say with almost certainty the running was emphasized in the first half of the year to protect Burrow. He was no where close to 100% healthy, and once he started to get his legs under him a bit more the playbook opened up. 

I would imagine with a healthy Burrow and competent OL play, play calling would skew more towards the pass-heavy version of ZT we saw the second half of the year.

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5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I’m not a big ZT play-caller fan, but I can say with almost certainty the running was emphasized in the first half of the year to protect Burrow. He was no where close to 100% healthy, and once he started to get his legs under him a bit more the playbook opened up. 

I would imagine with a healthy Burrow and competent OL play, play calling would skew more towards the pass-heavy version of ZT we saw the second half of the year.

That's a totally fair take.   Taylor was just a bad play caller his first 2 years, and a bad game manager.   He went from bad to league-average - which is no small feat.   Being that it's year 3 with literally no prior HC experience, it means there's room for more growth with Taylor.   If they fix the OL, maybe we'll see even more growth as a game-caller and game manager (WAY too conservative in first 2 years).

The fixation that Mixon can't be there on big 3rd / 4th down plays, though - man.   It's absolutely the one thing that is a red flag.   Mixon's a beast.   Even if you don't trust him in pass pro, there's zero reason you don't have him on the wheel route plays or the runs.   To have had Chris Evans and Samaje Perine out there on the big plays - I know it's something he's done all year long - but my take is it's been the wrong decision all year long.  And in the SB, it's just completely inexcusable.  You go down with your best players touching the ball, or getting the looks, unless another dude is wide open.  Maybe an offseason of watching those plays over & over will convince Taylor.  Just hope he gets a chance to be in a similar spot where it matters just as much.

Edited by Broncofan
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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

That's a totally fair take.   Taylor was just a bad play caller his first 2 years, and a bad game manager.   He went from bad to league-average - which is no small feat.   Being that it's year 3 with literally no prior HC experience, it means there's room for more growth with Taylor.   If they fix the OL, maybe we'll see even more growth as a game-caller and game manager (WAY too conservative in first 2 years).

The fixation that Mixon can't be there on big 3rd / 4th down plays, though - man.   It's absolutely the one thing that is a red flag.   Mixon's a beast.   Even if you don't trust him in pass pro, there's zero reason you don't have him on the wheel route plays or the runs.   To have had Chris Evans and Samaje Perine out there on the big plays - I know it's something he's done all year long - but my take is it's been the wrong decision all year long.  And in the SB, it's just completely inexcusable.  You go down with your best players touching the ball, or getting the looks, unless another dude is wide open.  Maybe an offseason of watching those plays over & over will convince Taylor.  Just hope he gets a chance to be in a similar spot where it matters just as much.

Spot on. The two 3rd and 1 Perine handoffs were infuriating. One of them decided the SB.

Honestly the last two plays period were kind of a microcosm of ZT's season. First, putting the ball in Perine's hand in a critical situation. And second, putting Burrow in shotgun on 4th and 1 with LA's pass rush looming - completely bush league. I understand putting the ball in your best players (Burrow) hand to decide the game, but run the ball with Mixon from under center twice from 3rd and 1. You will pick up the first. 

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  • 1 month later...

Serious Q to @ET80 & @Webmaster - does thread size necessitate a new thread here?   If not all good.  

Ppl know I’ve faded Denver a lot the last 2 years on this thread and profited.  But for 2022 they are now +300 to win the division.   With a 4th place schedule.   KC rightfully was the fave but imo it’s a level field if Tyreek Hill gets traded.   Worth a 4U play even if I have to wait to January lol. 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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  • 3 weeks later...
6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan @N4L

Any draft bets?

 

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Evan Neal #1 overall (+1,200)

Sauce Gardner #3 overall (+1,000) 

Seem to be realistic/good values.

I took Malik Willis 1.1 +8000 ages ago.   Even if it fails no regrets odds are +3000 now.   The higher value is top 5 +240.    Basically a plus money bet someone moves up ahead of Carolina.  
 

Given what we’re seeing with WR contracts o4.5 in Rd1 a lock I had.  It’s now o5.5 at +125 and worth a look. 

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20 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

On 4/13/2022 at 8:30 AM, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan @N4L

Any draft bets?

Desmond Ridder to be the first QB selected has went from +3,000 to +1,000 in 10 days.

Jameson Williams to be the first WR selected has went from +600 to +200 in 10 days.

Evan Neal to be the first OL selected is at +125, seems like a good value play.

O3.5 QB in the 1st round is +124, could be good value as Willis/Pickett seem to be locks and Corral/Ridder are trending up.

 

 

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