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Weekly Bets Thread


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On 4/13/2022 at 8:30 AM, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan @N4L

Any draft bets?

Funny you should ask me, I have one that I really like for plus money

 

Trent Baalke was the niners GM back in the day. It is an open secret that the man loves long arms. Every niners FRP with him as GM had long arms. Every. Single. One. He is the current Jags GM

Quote

"I like long arms. Last year’s draft should tell you that. Length’s important. It’s important in every sport. Aldon Smith, great leverage player because you can’t get to him. He’s 36-inch arm length. All of the guys last year on the D-line were 34 or more. I think it’s an important trait. It’s a trait that’s hard to find. If you look at this this year’s measurements, you’re not going to find many players in this year’s draft that are 34-plus arm length regardless of position. O-line, D-line, linebacker, so it is a trait we certainly look at."

https://www.ninersnation.com/2014/2/26/5448210/trent-baalke-arm-length-and-2014-nfl-combine-measurements

 

Aiden Hutchenson Arms: 32 1/8"

Travon Walker Arms: 35.5"

The twitter rumor mill says that the word is getting out that Walker is #1 overall. It fits. 

 

I dont usually use Bovada, but they have Walker as +350 and Hutch as -300 to be selected #1 overall. 

 

Anyone have any good recommendations for sites for NFL draft bets? I put a massive bet down already on Walker to be #1 overall, but I will also bet heavily on Hutch to go #2 (not posted on bovada) and I ultimately want to parlay them because Hutch will 10000% be #2 overall pick if he is available. 

Edited by N4L
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Bets I have down:

Kayvon Thibodeaux draft position und 5.5 -110. I’m not really buying the fall. The first 5 picks could take EDGE. I don’t think he slips past the Jets at 4.

Ahmad Gardner draft position under 7.5 -140. Premium prospect and positional value. I think he can go as high at 3 to Houston. If not, it’d be hard for the Giants to pass on him twice IMO.

Kyle Hamilton draft position over 8.5 -140. Very nice prospect, devalued position, not great testing. Too many EDGE and OTs go in the top 8.

Jameson Williams Top 10 pick +500. I got this one early (now +200). Multiple reports that he could be the first WR taken. ATL and NYJ both with big WR needs. Two kicks at the can. Worth a shot, IMO. 

Desmond Ridder First QB drafted +1400. Long shot. Lots of love coming Ridder’s way this past week. Fits win-now teams that need a rookie able to start Week 1. Ridder is the closest thing to that. 

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18 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Desmond Ridder First QB drafted +1400. Long shot. Lots of love coming Ridder’s way this past week. Fits win-now teams that need a rookie able to start Week 1. Ridder is the closest thing to that. 

Crazy how this line has been free falling over the last couple of weeks.

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On 4/14/2022 at 4:42 PM, N4L said:

I dont usually use Bovada, but they have Walker as +350 and Hutch as -300 to be selected #1 overall. 

Walker down to +180 now

Edited by NYRaider
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1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

I still think Hutch goes #1... but I wouldn't be shocked at a trade at #2 and Willis goes 2nd instead of Walker.

What incentive is there for a team to go all the way up to #2 for Willis unless they think Houston is going to draft him?

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45 minutes ago, NYRaider said:
On 4/14/2022 at 4:42 PM, N4L said:

I dont usually use Bovada, but they have Walker as +350 and Hutch as -300 to be selected #1 overall. 

Walker down to +180 now

I'm out here moving lines 

 

I don't know if I like it at +180. Doesn't seem like good value, but I guess my viewpoint is skewed given I have +350

If I was trying to bet it right now, I'd parlay walker and hutch going 1/2 respectively. Hutch will be #2 overall if walker goes #1, so it's a correlated parlay and would definitely get you above +350 in total 

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37 minutes ago, N4L said:

I'm out here moving lines 

 

I don't know if I like it at +180. Doesn't seem like good value, but I guess my viewpoint is skewed given I have +350

If I was trying to bet it right now, I'd parlay walker and hutch going 1/2 respectively. Hutch will be #2 overall if walker goes #1, so it's a correlated parlay and would definitely get you above +350 in total 

They saw your post and went into full fledged panic mode. Funny enough I was referencing what you had posted to my friend so I checked the odds again today and saw that it was all the way down to +180. 

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On 4/14/2022 at 4:42 PM, N4L said:

Funny you should ask me, I have one that I really like for plus money

 

Trent Baalke was the niners GM back in the day. It is an open secret that the man loves long arms. Every niners FRP with him as GM had long arms. Every. Single. One. He is the current Jags GM

https://www.ninersnation.com/2014/2/26/5448210/trent-baalke-arm-length-and-2014-nfl-combine-measurements

 

Aiden Hutchenson Arms: 32 1/8"

Travon Walker Arms: 35.5"

The twitter rumor mill says that the word is getting out that Walker is #1 overall. It fits. 

 

I dont usually use Bovada, but they have Walker as +350 and Hutch as -300 to be selected #1 overall. 

 

Anyone have any good recommendations for sites for NFL draft bets? I put a massive bet down already on Walker to be #1 overall, but I will also bet heavily on Hutch to go #2 (not posted on bovada) and I ultimately want to parlay them because Hutch will 10000% be #2 overall pick if he is available. 

I didnt even consider this part, but Baalke isnt taking the short armed DE from Michigan 

 

Anyone know where to wager on the #2 pick being Hutch??

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On 4/15/2022 at 7:54 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Bets I have down:

Kayvon Thibodeaux draft position und 5.5 -110. I’m not really buying the fall. The first 5 picks could take EDGE. I don’t think he slips past the Jets at 4.

Ahmad Gardner draft position under 7.5 -140. Premium prospect and positional value. I think he can go as high at 3 to Houston. If not, it’d be hard for the Giants to pass on him twice IMO.

Kyle Hamilton draft position over 8.5 -140. Very nice prospect, devalued position, not great testing. Too many EDGE and OTs go in the top 8.

Jameson Williams Top 10 pick +500. I got this one early (now +200). Multiple reports that he could be the first WR taken. ATL and NYJ both with big WR needs. Two kicks at the can. Worth a shot, IMO. 

Desmond Ridder First QB drafted +1400. Long shot. Lots of love coming Ridder’s way this past week. Fits win-now teams that need a rookie able to start Week 1. Ridder is the closest thing to that. 

All the lines have moved in my favour.

Thibs is now -270 to go top 5, Gardner’s lined moved to 5.5, and Hamilton’s line to 9.5.

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Saw First Round Pick Kaiir Elam +140, seems like really good value.

Corners with his size, athleticism, age, positional value, level of competition, and production don’t get out of the first round. Not to mention his family has NFL pedigree (dad and uncle played pro).

Checks almost every box.

Edited by SmittyBacall
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