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Weekly Bets Thread

BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Favorite bets for Week 1 are 

Jags +3.5 vs Washington 

Giants +6 vs the Titans 
 

Will look towards adding those two sides to a 6.5 teaser with the Cardinals and the Colts and Maybe the Cowboys since the Bucs got massive OL issues 

I'm with you on JAX.    The G-men have some critical injuries; losing Thibodeaux, and not having Toney, for example, are huge.   I do like fading the Titans as road favorites, though, just need to see how healthy the G-men are.

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Dash

Dash

Posted
Posted

Over on wins for the 49ers seems to be the best o/u bet to make this season. Favorable schedule and when it comes to offenses the best thing to look at is that their offense has three guys who can get separation. That makes it easier to stay in games against top defenses and when you have a coach who knows how to get creative and get them open that's a huge plus. Of course it comes down to Lance but he has a chance to post Mahomes year two numbers. Whatever percentage of that may be. Also being able to draw up a good running game plan is a plus as well. Parlay that with a top flight defense and it should be easy money.

Picking the AFCW o/u"s is tough. Chiefs have Mahomes and Reid but they have the toughest schedule per sharp football analysis this year. They should figure it out in terms of offense since they have some tough catch makers in Smith-Schuster and Kelce. Moore projects to have strong hands as well. How long it takes the defense to gel could be a problem for them.

Chargers offense gives some cause for concern with Allen and Williams being good but not the best couple of pass catchers in terms of having a definite skill they can win consistently with. Ekeler is a solid piece. Maybe Everett breaks out with Herbert. Defense should be elite with James,Bosa, and Jackson. Samuel Jr is solid. Mack should help. The offense  just doesn't seem the most appealing even with Herbert.

Broncos are tough. Depends on Wilson and the offensive coaching. Juedy and Sutton is comparable to Lockett/Metcalf. Maybe a push or rung below. Williams is a solid back paired with Gordon. Albert O is solid. Defense has Simmons and Surtain a centerpieces. Seems to be a push between them and the Chiefs in terms of defensive talent but with give a slight edge to the chiefs. 

Raiders have the three headed monster of guys who can get open and probably have the best pass game in terms of talent out of the division. If McDaniels can draw up a good game plan watch out. Jacobs is ok. Moreau is a good TE2. Defense seems to be the 4th best even with Jones and Crosby. Secondary has some pieces with Hobbes and Moehrig are solid. Other players are decent.

If having to choose one would say the the Broncos based on schedule. 

 

 

 

 

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

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@Broncofan @N4L

Looking ahead to Week 1, do you like anything in particular?

SF -7 jumps out big to me. Simply because the Niners defensive line is going to demolish that Bears front. 

Other than that, CIN -6.5 jumps out as well, assuming Cappa and Collins are healthy and ready to rock. I think we outmatch them on both sides of the ball. 

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LeotheLion

LeotheLion

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

True although 1st half of the seaosn Kyler is dangerous 

That would be the only reservation. Though Mahomes has never lost a September game with only 1 victory being just 3 points. And before Mahomes, the Alex Smith Chiefs teams were also fast starters with Reid. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan @N4L

Looking ahead to Week 1, do you like anything in particular?

SF -7 jumps out big to me. Simply because the Niners defensive line is going to demolish that Bears front. 

Other than that, CIN -6.5 jumps out as well, assuming Cappa and Collins are healthy and ready to rock. I think we outmatch them on both sides of the ball. 

I have 2 principles for Week 1:

-Beware of divisional matchups with backing big favorites.  The teams just know each other far better than we appreciate, and that means a ton.   

-Beware of betting against home dogs;  be comfortable that the road team in your evaluation can win by 3+ more points than the implied spread (IE if GB -2 @ MIN, then in your mind, think "I'd likely take them if it was -5"). 

The first principle eliminates IND-HOU, PIT-CIN, LV-LAC as I have the faves winning, but I'm not touching those spreads, although it keeps GB-MIN in play as MIN is the home dog.   I think CIN wins, don't get me wrong, but I see better opps.

 

Plays I'm on so far:

BAL -7 @ NYJ - I know, I know, it's the Flacco revenge tour.   But man, it's also an OL that's learning to gel with new pieces, and Flacco's statue-sque tendencies really creates problems.   BAL's CB's are back, after losing their top 4 (!!!) in the season IIRC.   Big issues here.  NYJ is on the right track, but this one I'll back Harbaugh & co.

SF -7 @ CHI - yeah, I'm with you there.    Terrible matchups on both sides of the ball.

JAX +170 ML @ WAS (-3.5), plus RACE's - I'm sorry, IMO the wrong team is favored here.  This should be a pick 'em even with the WAS HFA.    I'm not high on either team this year, but you give me the Jags' talent and give me a chance to fade Wentz as a dog...I'll take it.

DAL +110 ML vs. TAM, plus RACE's - this could absolutely bite me in the *ss but that OL and WR corps depletion is a massively bad combo for TAM's O.   I do worry DAL's OL is having similar troubles, but overall give me the home dog.

DEN -4 @ SEA - you have to realize how much I have to like DEN here to take my boys - I've made a LOT more $ fading them.  But again, the matchups are just not great at all.


I'm undecided on GB @ MIN, I'm really leaning to MIN ML - but I want to see if GB's OL actually gels, and if both T's can play.   If either T is out, that's a major opp IMO to leverage.    Still, I have too much respect for GB's D and Lafleur's progress as a HC - but MIN's ascension IMO is pretty legit.  Could be the game of the week.    

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
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On 8/23/2022 at 12:45 AM, Broncofan said:

I have 2 principles for Week 1:

-Beware of divisional matchups with backing big favorites.  The teams just know each other far better than we appreciate, and that means a ton.   

-Beware of betting against home dogs;  be comfortable that the road team in your evaluation can win by 3+ more points than the implied spread (IE if GB -2 @ MIN, then in your mind, think "I'd likely take them if it was -5"). 

The first principle eliminates IND-HOU, PIT-CIN, LV-LAC as I have the faves winning, but I'm not touching those spreads, although it keeps GB-MIN in play as MIN is the home dog.   I think CIN wins, don't get me wrong, but I see better opps.

 

Plays I'm on so far:

BAL -7 @ NYJ - I know, I know, it's the Flacco revenge tour.   But man, it's also an OL that's learning to gel with new pieces, and Flacco's statue-sque tendencies really creates problems.   BAL's CB's are back, after losing their top 4 (!!!) in the season IIRC.   Big issues here.  NYJ is on the right track, but this one I'll back Harbaugh & co.

SF -7 @ CHI - yeah, I'm with you there.    Terrible matchups on both sides of the ball.

JAX +170 ML @ WAS (-3.5), plus RACE's - I'm sorry, IMO the wrong team is favored here.  This should be a pick 'em even with the WAS HFA.    I'm not high on either team this year, but you give me the Jags' talent and give me a chance to fade Wentz as a dog...I'll take it.

DAL +110 ML vs. TAM, plus RACE's - this could absolutely bite me in the *ss but that OL and WR corps depletion is a massively bad combo for TAM's O.   I do worry DAL's OL is having similar troubles, but overall give me the home dog.

DEN -4 @ SEA - you have to realize how much I have to like DEN here to take my boys - I've made a LOT more $ fading them.  But again, the matchups are just not great at all.


I'm undecided on GB @ MIN, I'm really leaning to MIN ML - but I want to see if GB's OL actually gels, and if both T's can play.   If either T is out, that's a major opp IMO to leverage.    Still, I have too much respect for GB's D and Lafleur's progress as a HC - but MIN's ascension IMO is pretty legit.  Could be the game of the week.    

Sadly the loss of Tyron Smith likely has me pulling the DAL bets.   Dammit. 

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