Weekly Bets Thread

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Trey Lance Over 500.5 rush yards

Sportsbooks will want Bengals/Ravens/Colts/Broncos/49ers to lose. I cant help but think 1 loses, thats not a hot take though

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Trey Lance Over 500.5 rush yards

Sportsbooks will want Bengals/Ravens/Colts/Broncos/49ers to lose. I cant help but think 1 loses, thats not a hot take though

49ers don’t cover and Colts losing straight up I think are huge possibilities that can destroy everyones parlays. 

One or two popular parlay legs will be destroyed. The question is which. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

10 hours ago, BayRaider said:

49ers don’t cover and Colts losing straight up I think are huge possibilities that can destroy everyones parlays. 

One or two popular parlay legs will be destroyed. The question is which. 

Now that the line is 7.5 instead of 6/7 it is a bigger possibility. the issue I have with backing the Bears +7 is they need to overachieve on both sides of the ball/49ers to underachieve. In theory they are much worse on offense and defense so even if SF struggles on 1 side, they should dominate the other. 

Backing road favorites, especially divisional games, is definitely tough. Considering those ML legs are like -320 now its tough to back

[biggie.]

My upsets for week 1:

Bills at Rams +2.5: McVay has an excellent September record and is undefeated on opening weekend. SB winners of the past decade have gone 7-3 on the Thursday opener (Ravens played on the road).

Colts at Texans +7: As bad as the Texans are, division games are almost always competitive and to them the Colts are their biggest rival.

Jaguars +2.5 at Redskins: I'm projecting the Redskins to be one of the worst teams in the league this season and would never bet on them.

Eagles at Lions +4: I think the Lions can keep this game within a FG or even outright win. Practically all of their games last season came down to the wire.

Bengals at Steelers +6.5: My play of the week. Don't let them being in a transistory phase and starting Trubisky fool you; Steelers are a well-coached and mentally tough team that are going to be competitive in most of their games.

Chiefs at Cardinals +6: The other big play of the week you need to jump on. Under KingsMurray, the Cardinals have never lost on opening weekend and have only had one loss of 6+ points in the past two Septembers.

Raiders +3 at Chargers: Raiders are at full strength whereas Chargers will likely be without their premier FA signing, JC Jackson.

Edited September 8, 2022 by biggie.

[biggie.]

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Now that the line is 7.5 instead of 6/7 it is a bigger possibility. the issue I have with backing the Bears +7 is they need to overachieve on both sides of the ball/49ers to underachieve. In theory they are much worse on offense and defense so even if SF struggles on 1 side, they should dominate the other. 

Backing road favorites, especially divisional games, is definitely tough. Considering those ML legs are like -320 now its tough to back

Chicago is one of those teams I wouldn't bet on if they were given 50 points. They're just so bad.

[Broncofan]

Chicago picked up 6 guys on waivers post-53 man roster cuts.   That's a really, really, really thin talent roster.  

I get the spread is wide, but man, I don't think I can back Chicago at +7, +7.5.   I really think in a TO neutral game, SF wins by 14+. 

Re: BAL-NYJ, keep in mind that their OL is now a significant issue with Duane Brown not at practice.   A vulnerable OL & Joe Flacco is a terrible combo.

I look for upsets with intra-divisional games - that's PIT-CIN (less likely), LV-LAC, and again, as others mentioned, IND-HOU.  

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[biggie.]

30 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Chicago picked up 6 guys on waivers post-53 man roster cuts.   That's a really, really, really thin talent roster.  

I get the spread is wide, but man, I don't think I can back Chicago at +7, +7.5.   I really think in a TO neutral game, SF wins by 14+. 

Re: BAL-NYJ, keep in mind that their OL is now a significant issue with Duane Brown not at practice.   A vulnerable OL & Joe Flacco is a terrible combo.

 

The Jets in general are a terrible combo.

[BayRaider]

4 hours ago, biggie. said:

My upsets for week 1:

Bills at Rams +2.5: McVay has an excellent September record and is undefeated on opening weekend. SB winners of the past decade have gone 7-3 on the Thursday opener (Ravens played on the road).

Colts at Texans +7: As bad as the Texans are, division games are almost always competitive.

Jaguars +2.5 at Redskins: I'm projecting the Redskins to be one of the worst teams in the league this season and would never bet on them.

Eagles at Lions +4: I think the Lions can keep this game within a FG. Practically all of their games last season came down to the wire.

Bengals at Steelers +6.5: This would be my play of the week.

Chiefs at Cardinals +6: This is also one of my plays of the week. 

Raiders +3 at Chargers: Raiders are at full strength whereas Chargers will likely be without JC Jackson.

I agree with all of these. Except Commanders/Jags. I see a shootout and Commanders winning by 4. Although my confidence level on that is like 51%. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions won straight up. I definitely see them covering though. 

[Broncofan]

Right now, 2 straight dogs ML I'm leaning, and I'm still undecided on 2 others.

-JAX @ WAS - the line is coming down hard, I got it at +145, now it's +115.

-MIN vs. GB - Minny plays GB tough anyways, and the spectre that the GB OL isn't even close to full shape, with Jenkins & Bakhtiari still questionable (and even if they play, super long layoff), I have to take plus money.

-DAL vs. TB is the one I'm just so torn on.  DAL is decimated on the OL, although getting Jason Peters puts a serviceable guy (how long he can play for the season is the bigger issue, and he's obviously not elite or close anymore, but still way better than the guys they had in there).  On the other hand, TAM's OL issues, and word that both Godwin & Gage are limited or not practicing, inside DAL DL pressure is how you disrupt TB12.     I still love the U49.5 a lot more TBH.

-With JC Jackson out, I think there's a clear path to LV.  On the other hand, the LV secondary is so decimated, I think the better play is O52.   

I'd recognize that IND-HOU I'm leaning HOU +7, and same with PIT +6 with CIN, given the intradivisional angle and home dogs ATS-wise.  I'm just not there yet with straight ML bets.    The 2 intra-divisional matches I won't go with the dogs and just avoid are NE-MIA and NO-ATL - the issues with both NE's O, Matt Patricia as OC, while the Falcons' D is dreadful (I wonder if the O42.5 is the better play). 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[BayRaider]

I don’t really play Daily Fantasy Tournaments because I don’t view it as a skill game personally. It’s gambling, and worse than regular gambling. You need to pick a guy nobody owns and hope to get lucky. 

I am playing tonight, just to celebrate Week 1. If Tutu Atwell goes off for a crazy 130 yard 2 TD game, a million bucks mighttttt have my name on it. 

[Broncofan]

McCutcheon TD prop is +1100....that's insane.   McKenzie moved up to +450/+5000 2+, weird.   

Allen O37.5 rush yards is one I'll add to the card.   The LAR pass rush and run D favor Allen getting broken play or even QB sweep run plays (vs inside runs I do not see much success with at all).

Doubs on the other hand has gone done to +260/+2200 2+ - taking it earlier this week was def the right play.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[BayRaider]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

McCutcheon TD prop is +1100....that's insane.

Is he even active? Rams GM said he's gonna redshirt his first year. 

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I get the spread is wide, but man, I don't think I can back Chicago at +7, +7.5.   I really think in a TO neutral game, SF wins by 14+. 

I am with you, but something to monitor, apparently it will be 17 mph winds with a lot of rain on Sunday in CHI

Also, George Kittle is out. 

I might take the under on the Bears team total. Niners defensive line should feast. 

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Is he even active? Rams GM said he's gonna redshirt his first year. 

He's going to be inactive almost every week - but this week, Van Jefferson is inactive.  Skronek / shorty are his only competition to WR3 snaps in that event.   That's the possible opening - it's in my writeup.   

Still he could be a GD inactive - so it can wait to see if he's active or not - once you know, act accordingly.   

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, N4L said:

I am with you, but something to monitor, apparently it will be 17 mph winds with a lot of rain on Sunday in CHI

Also, George Kittle is out. 

I might take the under on the Bears team total. Niners defensive line should feast. 

That only increases my Lance TD prop, tbh.