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BStanRamFan

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Bet a teaser on the Rams and the Under, but have the Bills defense and kicker in fantasy and going against Robinson and the Rams kicker... this game is rough to watch. 

Oh and picked the Rams in my pickem league. 

Edited by fluhartz
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On 9/6/2022 at 3:17 PM, Broncofan said:

All right, player props are starting to trickle in, so starting to get my Week 1 card in.  Some of these bets (ATS / ML picks) were placed over 10 days ago, so I'll try to refresh the new line:


ATS/ML/RACE's (assume -110 odds and 1U-result ATS/ML bets and 0.5U per RACE, if not listed otherwise)

TNF

BUF ML -120 (at opening - now -135) - nothing against LAR, I have nothing but love for them.  But I just like the matchup here, especially with a bunch of guys hurting and coming back for LAR. 

 

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

TNF

Lance McCutcheon +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U)**** (VOIDED) - this is a VERY longshot prop, and it depends on 2 factors - first, Van Jefferson has to be inactive.   If Van J is active, then I'm pulling the bet (B365 allows me to, voids it as well if he's inactive).   Secondly, McCutcheon himself has to be active (because the other depth guys play ST, he could still be inactive - most books will void this bet in that case, however).    But if the above scenario happens, McCutcheon could easily be the RZ 3rd WR - and they are carrying fewer TE's to keep him, so he's potentially in EZ package plays.  I think he's way more talented than Skronek, so if he's active, we could see him used much like LAC uses Donald Parham (EZ/RZ special plays). 

Isiah McKenzie +350 / +4000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - This is as much about McKenzie's price and fact he's the slot guy.  Now, I know Jalen Ramsey played a ton of slot in 2021 - but as Darious Williams exits and David Long enters, it's far more likely Long stays in the slot.   Long's decent, but in the RZ, it's so hard to keep McKenzie in check.   Still, it's a longshot play, so not getting too invested, but I love the odds here.

 

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

McCutcheon TD prop is +1100 (EDIT: VOIDED)....that's insane.   McKenzie moved up to +450/+5000 2+, weird .   

Allen O37.5 rush yards is one I'll add to the card.   The LAR pass rush and run D favor Allen getting broken play or even QB sweep run plays (vs inside runs I do not see much success with at all).

Doubs on the other hand has gone done to +260/+2200 2+ - taking it earlier this week was def the right play.

 

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BUF ML -115.   Even though LAR gets the ball the LOS battle goes to BUF.   With 2 fluke TO I’ll take another unit on BUF ML.  

 

So with the McKenzie TD line moved up to +450/+5000 2+, I reloaded with another 0.4U/0.1U to the +350 ML play earlier this week - and reloaded with BUF ML -115 at halftime, along with the -120 ML bet from the opener.    Along with Josh Allen's O37.5 which he passed comfortably with 48 yards, that means I start 2023 4-0, and net a tidy +6.0U profit.   BUF's 1st leg also keeps my +3500 8-leg ML parley alive, with BAL/PHI/SF/JAX/NO/KC/DEN ML play alive as well; only JAX is a dog so hoping the other faves hit and my instincts on JAX ML/RACE (and Trevor Lawrence O1.5 TD's and Kirks O52.5 rec yards all hit) are accurate.

Off to a good start, hopefully can keep it going into Week 1!

 

Edited by Broncofan
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A few more props have trickled in, and a couple stand out:

-Going to increase my stake to 2.2U on Christian Kirk O55.5 yards.   On further review I think his number should be in the 70's, leverage opportunity here.

-Adding Justin Fields O34.5 rush yards - bad OL, likely trailing, and weather that will promote running.   Don't forget Fields ran for 100+ vs. SF's D last year.    Again, the weather does limit the ceiling, but this stands out.  I also trust the CHI coaching staff to leverage Fields' abilities way more than Nagy & co.

-Adding Brandon Aiyuk O3.5 catches +125 - ever since he got out of Kyle Shanahan's doghouse, Aiyuk has become a sneaky prop play with lines like these.  He's gone 4+ catches 5 of his last 6 games - and that 1 game was the GB cold/snow game.   Against CHI's pass D, I think he's good for 5+ catches, so this is an easy +money play.   Because of the possible wind conditions, it's the main reason I'm only going with a 1U play.

-Following the injury to Kittle, and more TC news, I'm going to take 1 more longshot TD prop on Danny Gray +1200 / +12500 2+.    It's probably no more than a 15-20 percent chance it happens, but I'm being given 8+ percent odds.    He's definitely going to be their other big body guy, and it seems like he's beating out Juan Jennings for PT.  As the 4.33 burner, he's already built a connection with Trey Lance, and with Kittle out, I'm going with the ripple effect here.

My week 1 card is updated on page 199 - @Dash, @SmittyBacall & @N4L I know you've read it - but the complete list is updated there lol.

I usually keep a 25-30U risk portfolio for each week - and I'm now at 35U.   It's OK here, both because Week 1 usually offers lines that are way too low for new changes, but also because with my 4-0 TNF start  and being +6.0U up, I'm only putting 30U at risk now.  BOL/LFG!

Edited by Broncofan
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On 9/8/2022 at 2:37 PM, Broncofan said:

-With JC Jackson out, I think there's a clear path to LV.  On the other hand, the LV secondary is so decimated, I think the better play is O52.   

Not sure how our secondary is so decimated, we don't have any major injuries. I think the biggest factor will be how our OL holds up against their pass rush.

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11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Shaq Leonard is out for IND.   That changes that D so much.   Man, I'd just avoid the IND-HOU matchup altogether.

The Colts are also transitioning into Gus Bradley's scheme which is one of the most vanilla in the NFL, their defense will look significantly different. 

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15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

One of my favorites

Michael Carter O11.5 receiving yards (-114) - Their offensive coordinator recently said that Carter is going to be the heart and soul of their offense this year, so I expect he'll lead the backfield to start the year. With their issues up front and Flacco's tendency to check down, I think it's a safe bet that he'll easily go over.

 

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2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Not sure how our secondary is so decimated, we don't have any major injuries. I think the biggest factor will be how our OL holds up against their pass rush.

Yeah, not only is our secondary not decimated, we were the 5th best team against WR’s last year. And our secondary is nearly the same. We suck against TE’s but Chargers TE’s are trash. Everett is meh at best. I’m still expecting a shootout, but saying our secondary is “decimated” is not the reason for that shootout. The reason is two of the highest powered passing offenses in the NFL. 

People sleeping on Trevon Moehrig. Man was such a baller last year in his rookie season. 

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52 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Yeah, not only is our secondary not decimated, we were the 5th best team against WR’s last year. And our secondary is nearly the same. We suck against TE’s but Chargers TE’s are trash. Everett is meh at best. I’m still expecting a shootout, but saying our secondary is “decimated” is not the reason for that shootout. The reason is two of the highest powered passing offenses in the NFL. 

People sleeping on Trevon Moehrig. Man was such a baller last year in his rookie season. 

It's difficult to really form an opinion about our defense one way or another because we're transitioning into a new scheme and have a ton of new pieces as well as young guys poised to make a leap.

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6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Not sure how our secondary is so decimated, we don't have any major injuries. I think the biggest factor will be how our OL holds up against their pass rush.

Fair - decimated is the wrong term.   So many new guys in new roles.   That seldom gels week 1.    Maybe it’s all going to work but early on there’s usually leverage opps.   I see that this week with Herbert & co.    Teams with stable schemes have a big advantage over those with new ones in September and even more so Week 1.    The exception being if there’s a major talent gap (see: DEN-SEA).  

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2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Fair - decimated is the wrong term.   So many new guys in new roles.   That seldom gels week 1.    Maybe it’s all going to work but early on there’s usually leverage opps.   I see that this week with Herbert & co.    Teams with stable schemes have a big advantage over those with new ones.    The exception being if there’s a major talent gap (see: DEN-SEA).  

Agreed. The only thing that could play into our advantage though is that we have a ton of tape of what they like to do on both sides of the ball and they have limited to no tape on what we're going to roll out. I could easily see Herbert having a monster game and the Chargers pass rush wrecking our game plan offensively though.

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14 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Agreed. The only thing that could play into our advantage though is that we have a ton of tape of what they like to do on both sides of the ball and they have limited to no tape on what we're going to roll out. I could easily see Herbert having a monster game and the Chargers pass rush wrecking our game plan offensively though.

Honestly it’s why I think if I had to play it I’d favor the over.   LV ATS I might consider but LV’s OL issues breaks one of my check marks to back dogs (intradivisional familiarity is one of them though - why ATS wise I chose to stay away). 

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Honestly it’s why I think if I had to play it I’d favor the over.   LV ATS I might consider but LV’s OL issues breaks one of my check marks to back dogs (intradivisional familiarity is one of them though - why ATS wise I chose to stay away). 

I've ran through all of the games a few times and I don't feel overly confident on too many games. 

Some I like though: 

Cardinals (+6) vs Chiefs

Vikings (+1.5) vs Packers

Ravens (-6.5) at Jets

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