Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 9/28/2022 at 1:14 AM, Broncofan said:

Because there is so much uncertainty with Tua ahd Waddle - no props are out except yardage for CIN & TD props for both teams.   
 

I already mentioned I’m taking a dog shot on MIA ML +170 & RACE to 20/25/30 for 2.5U.   
 

I’ll add 1 more player prop and TD prop, the player prop being a 2U play.  
 

-Tyler Boyd o40.5 Rec yds 2U the Dolphins are stingy in pass D vs. boundary WR.  They give up a lot of slot action.   This is an easy play worth 2U
 

-Durham Smythe +800 / +10000 2+ TD  (0.8U / 0.2U) - CIN pass D remains vulnerable to the TE.   The value here lies in the fact Durham Smythe is taking over snaps for Gesicki and getting targets.    Worth the long odd payoff.    
 

If there’s a boosted TD prop I’ll consider it but for now that’s it for TNF.  BOL! 

Adding a really small 0.5U Trent Sherfield +750 TD prop.   

[N4L]

14 hours ago, N4L said:

I didnt even realize there was a hurricane coming in when I placed the bet, but that made me love it even more. I know they probably move the game to Minesota of all places, but it hasnt been announced yet. I assume the line already reflects that change though. The NFL wants this to be a showcase game and I doubt they put it up to chance. I would be surprised if it isnt moved, but if the game is played in Tampa, then that is fantastic for me. 

Game is staying in Tampa. Clear skies on the horizon it seems. Still love it 

 

For tonight, one prop that I love tonight is Raheem Mostert over 38.5 rushing yards. He is their RB1. He had much higher usage in week 2 than edmunds. Week 3 the dolphins ran 39 plays, mostert had 8 rushes and 2 targets. They tried to get him the ball 25% of the time. Edmunds had the goal line work but that doesnt matter here because it's not fantasy, its a rush prop lol 

Raheem is super explosive - this could be just 2-3 runs for him. 

 

Will take a page out of @Broncofans book and do an alternate line of 80 yards at +177 for about 25% of my potential profit on the over 38.5

Edited September 29, 2022 by N4L

[SmittyBacall]

3 minutes ago, N4L said:

Game is staying in Tampa. Clear skies on the horizon it seems. Still love it 

 

For tonight, one prop that I love tonight is Raheem Mostert over 38.5 rushing yards. He is their RB1. He had much higher usage in week 2 than edmunds. Week 3 the dolphins ran 39 plays, mostert had 8 rushes and 2 targets. They tried to get him the ball 25% of the time. Edmunds had the goal line work but that doesnt matter here because it's not fantasy, its a rush prop lol 

Raheem is super explosive - this could be just 2-3 runs for him. 

I won’t be backing this, but to help you out further, DJ Reader, playing like an all-pro NT, is out (now on IR). Massive void left in the middle of that D. We’re usually good against the run, but now I have no clue. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

Game is staying in Tampa. Clear skies on the horizon it seems. Still love it 

 

For tonight, one prop that I love tonight is Raheem Mostert over 38.5 rushing yards. He is their RB1. He had much higher usage in week 2 than edmunds. Week 3 the dolphins ran 39 plays, mostert had 8 rushes and 2 targets. They tried to get him the ball 25% of the time. Edmunds had the goal line work but that doesnt matter here because it's not fantasy, its a rush prop lol 

Raheem is super explosive - this could be just 2-3 runs for him. 

That’s worth a tail esp as o38.5 now +105 lol.  Added.  

Edited September 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

B365 boost tonight is Tyreek Hill 50+ Rec yds +100.   Max bet of 3.2U allowed that’s in obv.   Just don’t get hurt Cheetah lol.  

[Broncofan]

On 9/28/2022 at 1:14 AM, Broncofan said:

Because there is so much uncertainty with Tua ahd Waddle - no props are out except yardage for CIN & TD props for both teams.   
 

I already mentioned I’m taking a dog shot on MIA ML +170 & RACE to 20/25/30 for 2.5U.   
 

I’ll add 3 more player prop (one boosted) and 2 TD prop, the OG player prop being a 2U play.  
 

-Tyler Boyd o40.5 Rec yds 2U the Dolphins are stingy in pass D vs. boundary WR.  They give up a lot of slot action.   This is an easy play worth 2U

EDIT ADDED THU PM - Raheem Mostert o38.5 rush yards +105 - full credit to @N4L on this one   

EDIT ADDED THU PM BOOSTED BET - Tyreek Hill 50+ Rec yds +100 3.2U - not much to be explained.   See page 217. 
 

-Durham Smythe +800 / +10000 2+ TD  (0.8U / 0.2U) - CIN pass D remains vulnerable to the TE.   The value here lies in the fact Durham Smythe is taking over snaps for Gesicki and getting targets.    Worth the long odd payoff.    
 

-EDIT ADDED THU PM - Trent Sherfield +750 TD 0.5U - late add see page 217.  
 

If there’s a boosted TD prop for Tyreek Hill I’ll consider it but for now that’s it for TNF.  BOL! 

Well, we'll never know.   Tua down 7-6, ball at midfield...and then the "back spasms" from last week (yeah, right) and the big hit - done.    MIA D hung tough, but too much to overcome.     0-1 ML/RACE, -2.5U

Player Props - 3/3, and Boyd 2U/Mostert/Hill 3.2U +100 (even if he was at 77.5 easy W - but the 50+ bonus, made it easy to take the max 3.2U bet all hit - so it's a nice +6.2U hit.

TD props - nothing really close, although Sherfield was on the field in the RZ plays.   -1.5U

Sucks that my ML/RACE died that way - but that's gambling.   A 3/3 and leveraged bet play (I was going to bet Hill, figured it was going to be boosted, and it paid off in spades) keeps the small steps going forward - TNF profit of 2.2U.   On to Week 4 weekend!

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 3 SNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

11-10ATS, 4-6 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 vs. LAC, and now DET game management vs. MIN could be amazing instead of just in the red..oh well)

-2.6U

 

PLAYER PROPS

27-24

+8.0U (8-6 in 2U+ plays)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-16 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 4 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop with starter status in doubt).

+3.1U

 

TOTAL:   +8.5U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 TNF - +2.2U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

[Broncofan]

On 9/27/2022 at 2:18 AM, Broncofan said:

OK, with the lines out again, there are 5 plays I'd like to settle in now, to get ahead of any line movement I think is going my direction:

EARLY

BUF-BAL O51.0 - Unders are still king.  But keep in mind that BAL is still missing 2 of their top 3 CB's, and their pass rush isn't elite anymore.   On the flip side, BUF's secondary is nowhere near as effective, and BAL's O presents a problem regardless in its uniqueness.   I also know the public likely is thinking the same, so this is one where the line could go up to 53-54+, and I'm much more comfortable with 52 as my target.  

DET -3.5 vs. SEA - SEA & ATL had a close game, and DET lost a heartbreaker in MIN where they were up 24-14, and then Dan Campbell let off the gas, and made some really awful game management choices (going for it on 4th and 2 from 29, and then kicking the 55+ yard FG on 4th and 4 from the 38 instead of trying to win the game.  If you go for it at the 29, you're going for it on the 38...or vice-versa, you kick the FG at the 29).  Campbell admitted he blew the game management, which was nice to see.   This is a case where the DET OL and pass game just can overwhelm the SEA D, and while I expect some SEA O success, the Lions' D is still a big step up from the ATL D, and we see more of a 31-17 type game.  Plus we get the WC travelling for an early game, too.  I want nothing to do with the line if it gets any higher, though, so going to get the line now.

JAX +7 @ PHI - no way I'm going to fade Philly SU (straight up) - but the matchup is a lot closer than it looks.   DET's OL and run game, along with pass weapons, allowed them to keep up with Hurts & co., and backdoor a cover.   I see something very similar here, where the JAX run game can keep the PHI pass rush honest, and Kirk & Zay Jones can thrive enough to be productive.   I don't want the line to drop below 7, though - so I'm grabbing this now. 

EDIT:  ADDED TUES AM - CLE -120 ML @ ATL - without Myles Garrett & Ja'daveon Clowney, this becomes riskier - but this is also reflected in the line.    With news that Garrett escaped any broken bones, and released from hospital, I'd prefer to get ahead of the line movement that happens if he's announced as OK to return to practice.  Clowney's also noted to have a LAS and not the high-ankle variety, so I'm confident enough to bet CLE now and leverage the injury concern that's likely factored in (QB's are worth 2-3 pts, depending on how good they are, but elite DPOY types move the line about 1-2 pts, I'd guess CLE would be -3.5 to 4 instead of the -1.5 they're at now; it makes the ML at -120 very attractive, simpler).  I'm totally OK with the ML without those 2, with either added (or both) then we're getting major value ahead of the news, and the odds won't likely be any better to CLE given they're being treated as missing the game in the current odds.

 

LATE

KC ML +100 @ TAM - I know, I know, TB12 doesn't lose games back to back that often.   But the problems with their OL and WR corps aren't going away.   And while KC lost @ IND last week, gotta understand the context - they muffed a punt, let another punt drop at the 15 and it ended up at the 1 (which killed the O drive next time), and went for a fake FG (that failed), along with terrible penalties that extended drives that were stopped, and led to at points.   Those rare events led to a 10-13 point swing.    Given that, if you give me Mahomes and he only has to cover by a FG, I'll take that.   This feels a lot like TB12's last year with NE, FWIW - OL is getting him killed, him trying to carry the team (with a stellar D) - but falling short a lot more often than not.

 

I'm also eyeing DEN +2 (but I think the line's going to move towards LV as more post-Hackett fallout continues to circulate in the news cycle), and I'm really tempted with TEN +3 and CLE -1.5 (but really need to know what's happening with Myles Garrett car accident and Ja'daveon Clowney's ankle).   Fo now those 5 bets are locked in, as I think the line will only go in my direction, so getting the extra value now.

EDIT:  Got enough news on Garrett & Clowney that IMO I can just take the shot now.  Odds won't likely improve for CLE, but can only get further away if Clowney returns, or Garrett returns to practice this week.

 

So the flip side to going early - 3 of the 6 lines actually went the other way - DET -3.5,  KC -2 went to -1/+1 depending boosk (and ML is +100), and BUF/BAL U51.5 went to 51.0.   It cost me 0.1U to reload 2 of them, so I'll factor that into the profit/loss.

Before more props come out I have to mention 2 TD props which are likely going to fall substantially if another key injury gets announced:

Josh Reynolds +500/+500 (0.8U/0.2U) - pretty sure Amon Ra St. Brown is going to miss the game.    If that happens, these odds will drop in half.  Get them now vs. the SEA D. 

Khalil Shakir +1000 / +10000 (0.8/0.2U) - but only take now if you can void bet - I went this way on MNF vs. TEN and it turns out Jake Kumerow got 70 percent the extra work when Gabe Davis was out, and Shakir got 30 percent.   The thing is this time - Kumerow's out.   Davis played last week, but aggravated the injury in practice on Wed.   He's going to try to practice today - but if he's inactive, this prop drops by 4-5x.   If he's active, then this isn't nearly such a good play - so only take this if you do have the ability to cash out / void at minimal cost.    My book does (another Canuck one - TheScore), so it's an option.   I hope if there's even more doubt that Davis isn't going to play, the line drops hard anyways - and then I might be able to cash out for profit the moment I hear Davis is active, like I did with Zamir White / Jacobs from a week ago.  

 

Main player props aren't out for most games, so still waiting.   Hopefully you can take advantage of the juicy lines above.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

man last night I took what I thought was an easy bet Hill, Chase, Waddle had to all go for 40+ yards. it was for +100 waddle was a yard short from the payoff.

[Broncofan]

57 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

man last night I took what I thought was an easy bet Hill, Chase, Waddle had to all go for 40+ yards. it was for +100 waddle was a yard short from the payoff.

Honestly it shows the flaw in taking teasers, this time it was a teased player prop.   Sure, it seems easier to bank on the number being hit - but you're increasing the risk 3-fold.   Even if it's a 80 percent prob of hitting, you're now 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 51.2 percent probability.  So it's literally the same risk pretty much for a +100 bet.

And the final part - we as bettors almost always over-estimate the probability of things going our way.   That's a big reason why dog money is so profitable - because you're getting + odds when you do hit.  If you only get -110 odds every time, and bet the same amount - unless you can hit at 55-60 percent of picks (which only about the top 5 percent of bettors can do) - it's not going to be profitable. 

It's only 1 bet, so it's not the end of the world - but it does show the fallacy with teasers.    It reduces the odds of not hitting per play - but you multiply said probability each time.   It's why teasers are still more profitable than straight bets for Vegas. 

[Broncofan]

On 9/30/2022 at 12:57 PM, Broncofan said:

So the flip side to going early - 3 of the 6 lines actually went the other way - DET -3.5,  KC -2 went to -1/+1 depending boosk (and ML is +100), and BUF/BAL U51.5 went to 51.0.   It cost me 0.1U to reload 2 of them, so I'll factor that into the profit/loss.

Before more props come out I have to mention 2 TD props which are likely going to fall substantially if another key injury gets announced:

Josh Reynolds +500/+500 (0.8U/0.2U) - pretty sure Amon Ra St. Brown is going to miss the game.    If that happens, these odds will drop in half.  Get them now vs. the SEA D. 

Khalil Shakir +1000 / +10000 (0.8/0.2U) - but only take now if you can void bet - I went this way on MNF vs. TEN and it turns out Jake Kumerow got 70 percent the extra work when Gabe Davis was out, and Shakir got 30 percent.   The thing is this time - Kumerow's out.   Davis played last week, but aggravated the injury in practice on Wed.   He's going to try to practice today - but if he's inactive, this prop drops by 4-5x.   If he's active, then this isn't nearly such a good play - so only take this if you do have the ability to cash out / void at minimal cost.    My book does (another Canuck one - TheScore), so it's an option.   I hope if there's even more doubt that Davis isn't going to play, the line drops hard anyways - and then I might be able to cash out for profit the moment I hear Davis is active, like I did with Zamir White / Jacobs from a week ago.  

 

Main player props aren't out for most games, so still waiting.   Hopefully you can take advantage of the juicy lines above.

 

OK so a fair number of player props are now available, and I'm definitely on a bunch, and continuing the thought exercise (that paid off handsomely with Greg Dortch +190 and Kyle Pitts +240), have a +150, +170, +230 and +240 player prop I'll back in addition the standard props:

ATS/ML & RACE

SEE PAGE 215 (0-1 MIA ML & RACE, -2.5U) - please note I've decided with all the DET injuries (not just Amon-Ra St. Brown and De'Andre Swift out, but the remaining 2 WR's Chark & Reynolds and TE Hockenson are all banged up) - I'm pulling DET -3.5 and just took the 0.1U L (reflected in weekly profit-loss ledger).  EDIT FRI PM: With weather, and just a bad feeling about backing Baker Mayfield, I've pulled BUF-BAL O51 & CAR ML.

 

PLAYS ALREADY TAKEN:

MIA ML/RACE 20-25 TNF - loss, -2U

BUF-BAL O51 - REMOVED FRI PM.  EDIT SUN AM:  Alvin Kamara 

JAX +7 @ PHI

CLE ML -120

KC ML +100 (SNF)

 

Adding 3 more plays, while removing the DET play :

UK

EDIT SUN AM REMOVED - NO +3.5 - the travel advantage may in fact be there, but I'm not silly enough to think with no Kamara, Dalton or Michael Thomas, it's worth the play here.  Pulled, amazingly enough with no extra cashout penalty (guess they had Kamara out in their line already).

EARLY

EDIT:   REMOVED FRI PM - CAR ML (standard -110) - I'm not taking any RACE's, because I don't know if anyone gets to 20 pts lol.    CAR's O is awful...but their D is legit.  And it can get after and limit QB scrambles.   THAT is how you beat ARI - the only reason why LV lost Week 2 is because they couldn't stay on the field, and the D got gassed, and Kyler ran wild in the pocket and outside.   Now, Baker Mayfield could absolutely destroy this play, but the ARI pass D is leaky enough I'm going with a play that I honestly think should be CAR -3, and -160-ish.

EDIT ADDED FRI PM:  BUF -3 for bad weather (O51-52 back in if weather forecast improves) - see below, backing Josh Allen's bad weather-proof arm skills, and the drop in the athletic/speed gap Lamar Jackson owns on a dry, fast track.

EDIT ADDED FRI PM  DAL -3 - just finished watching the WAS-PHI game, and rewatch of NYG-DAL, and the WAS OL / Wentz have a serious problem with the DAL pass rush.   That really negates any WR edges on the DAL CB's (who can be beat, but not if there's pressure like a firestorm coming in on Wentz).  And WAS' D still can't cover.   On the flip side, the rookie Tyler Smith is holding his own at LT, and Jason Peters at G is making it all work.  DAL OL working out was NOT on my bingo card, but here we are.  Given the trench advantage on both sides, Wentz' propensity for mistakes - well, I'm all over DAL -3.

 

LATE

DEN ML +140, RACE to 20-25 - 1 day before Week 3 games started, DEN was a 2.5 pt fave - and now they're up to a 2.5+ pt dog.    And the negative perception on DEN is warranted, but that's a massive overcorrection.   In LV, this should be a pick 'em game - but unlike other games, Josh McDaniels is struggling as much as Nathaniel Hackett is.   The DEN D looks elite, and the LV secondary and skill position corps looks to be down Renfrow & Hobbs - which makes it far easier to account for Davante Adams & Darren Waller, and far harder to cover the DEN pass game.     Not my fave play simply because putting $ on Hackett is cause for ulcer development, but given the objective value, it's one I have to take. 

I also added 0.5U 6-leg for everything but NO but ATS (for parley bonus) with BUF -3 / DAL -3 / JAX +7 / CLE -1 / DEN +2.5 / KC +0.5 for +6800. 

So that's 7.5U at risk

 

PLAYER PROPS

Taken already on TNF - 3-0 (+6.2U)

UK 

EDIT SUN AM: VOIDED - Alvin Kamara O3.5 catches +100 3U, 1U 6+ catches +550, 0.5U 7+ catches +100 - see writeup below.  Going full instince here.  Dalton checks down, no MT, although Kamara's ribs a concern, these odds are just so off; ribs are why odds are likely so off.  But YOLO.   EDIT SUN AM:   Inactive, voids....dammit, I doubt we ever get odds like this posted with no MT and a checkdown QB, plus losing game script.  Sigh.

 

EARLY 

EDIT FRI PM - PULLED WITH WEATHER: Dallas Goedert O42.5 rec yards - Goedert failed to hit 40 yards last week, but there's context.  It was a blowout win, and Goedert missed time - and his backup got 50+ yards while Goedert was out.   This is a simple bet to keep playing, he's literally #1 in YAC, and in #routes run, and TE continues to be the 2nd or 3rd target each week.

EDIT FRI PM - PULLED WITH WEATHER: Christian Kirk O59.5 rec yards - Darius Slay doesn't make it a habit of following in the slot - so this is a Kirk slam spot.   Of all the pass options, he's got the best matchup, and PHI's blitz is going to prioritize short-intermediate area targets, which is where Kirk should thrive. 

EDIT FRI PM - Josh Allen O6.5 rush attempts -120, 10+ rush attempts +360 - Credit to @SmittyBacall here, with bad weather love this.

Dameon Pierce O59.5 rush yds, 75+ rush yds +170 - Pierce is the unquestioned top RB in HOU right now, and against LAC's D, leaning on the run is definitely the way to go.  I not only love the 59.5 prop, but at +170, I have to take a 2nd stab at the alt line.

Mark Andrews O5.5 catches +110 - I could easily take O63.5, but I can't resist the catch prop at + money.   Andrews is getting 10+ targets a game, and with the BUF system allowing catches in front of them, I actually think 6+ catches is safer than 60+ yards. 

Kyle Pitts O54.5 rec yds, 75+ rec yards +230 - honestly, not much different than last week, except I think it's even more tilted to be a pass-centric game, with Clowney back and Myles Garrett a true GTD.   I think HC Arthur Smith finally got the memo to keep using Pitts, I only expect more big things, but I'll take the suppressed main total, and the big payoff for what I think at worst is a 40-50th percentile outcome (but they're paying me for a 25-30th percentile).

Breece Hall O16.5 rec yds, 25+ rec yards +170 - I get the risk is we're getting Zach Wilson in the game - but we're talking about the RB who's getting most if not all the 3rd down work, 11 targets, and went 6/53 last week.  When you look at David Njoku's dominance on MNF, it's safety valve short-area stuff.   So yeah, I'm taking a shot on both plays, especially given that juice +170 line.

Curtis Samuel O46.5 rec yds - he hasn't let me down so far, and he's clear Wentz's safety valve guy.  I am concerned DAL's pass rush could create another miserable day for Wentz, so no 2U plays - but I can't leave Samuel off my ticket.   

Tyler Lockett O5.5 catches, 7+ recs +230 - he's clearly Geno Smith's go-to security blanket, and he's gone 11 targets and 9 catches last 2 guys.  First game was against a DEN D we know recognize is really good against the pass.   But to add to this confidence - Jeff Ukodah stays on the boundary, so it's pretty clear DK Metcalf should get a lot of Ukodah - which makes Lockett the smash spot.   Obv if I'm willing to take +money extra props and double up, I love the play - but Lockett is the #1 guy on my ticket for main props.

LATE

SNF

Clyde Edwards Helaire 4+ catches +150 - I don't know if he's going to lose more carries to Jerrick McKinnon, and frankly, I don't care.   As long as he keeps getting the pass work, I'm here for it.  Now, because it's Tampa Bay's pass D, with their speedy DB's and LB's flying to the ball - I think the 4+ catch prop is a LOT easier than the yardage.   The 3+ catch has too much juice at -170, so I'll take my chances at +150.    This is not nearly as much of a lock as the other plays, which is why I'm not doubling up on a 2U stake.

EDIT FRI PM - Adding 0.5U free bet (still offering it, I'll still take it) parley with Alvin Kamara O3.5 catches +100 / Josh Allen O6.5 rushes -120 / Breece Hall O16.5 rec yds / Tyler Lockett O5.5 catches / Allen Pitts O54.5 rec yds / CEH O3.5 catches +140 for +6000.   So that's 13U at risk (EDIT: with Kamara props voided)

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Plays Taken Already TNF:  0-2, -1.5U

EARLY

EDIT SUN AM - Latavius Murray +1000 (now +650), Juwan Johnson +800 FD, and Marquez Callaway +900 (now +650) TD - 0.5U each - no MT was expected, but no Kamara changes the landscape a ton on TD probability.  Playing the field on the +800 crowd that will see work.  Trequan Smith & Mark Ingram were always +350 or lower given their perceived roles as backups, but I think all 3 above get snaps inside the 10 and in Juwan's / Callaway's case we know they get targets.

Josh Reynolds +500/+500 (0.8U/0.2U) - pretty sure Amon Ra St. Brown is going to miss the game.    If that happens, these odds will drop in half.  Get them now vs. the SEA D.   EDIT SUN AM:  EVERYONE is missing the game except Hock and Reynolds.  He's now +150. Wow.

Khalil Shakir +1000 / +10000 (0.8/0.2U) - but only take now if you can void bet - I went this way on MNF vs. TEN and it turns out Jake Kumerow got 70 percent the extra work when Gabe Davis was out, and Shakir got 30 percent.   The thing is this time - Kumerow's out.   Davis played last week, but aggravated the injury in practice on Wed.   He's going to try to practice today - but if he's inactive, this prop drops by 4-5x.   If he's active, then this isn't nearly such a good play - so only take this if you do have the ability to cash out / void at minimal cost.    My book does (another Canuck one - TheScore), so it's an option.   I hope if there's even more doubt that Davis isn't going to play, the line drops hard anyways - and then I might be able to cash out for profit the moment I hear Davis is active, like I did with Zamir White / Jacobs from a week ago.   

So that's 3.5U at risk for 28U total so far as of Friday late PM.

It's kinda crazy that I haven't found a LATE slate play for either player props or TD's I like yet - so obv I might add and even add on Sunday AM.   Hopefully the early slate rewards me & those who tail.  BOL!

_______________________________________

SEASON TALLY up to Week 4 TNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

11-10ATS, 4-6 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 vs. LAC, and now DET game management vs. MIN could be amazing instead of just in the red..oh well)

-2.6U

 

PLAYER PROPS

27-24

+8.0U (8-6 in 2U+ plays)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-16 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 4 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop with starter status in doubt).

+3.1U

 

TOTAL:   +8.5U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 TNF - +2.2U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Broncofan
FRI PM - removed BAL-BUF O51 with weather, CAR ML, DET -4 with injuries....and added Kamara huge prop gamble & DAL -3 SUN AM: Kamara props voided, added long-shot NO TD's, pulled NO +3.5

[N4L]

On 9/26/2022 at 11:18 PM, Broncofan said:

BUF-BAL O51.5 - Unders are still king.  But keep in mind that BAL is still missing 2 of their top 3 CB's, and their pass rush isn't elite anymore.   On the flip side, BUF's secondary is nowhere near as effective, and BAL's O presents a problem regardless in its uniqueness.   I also know the public likely is thinking the same, so this is one where the line could go up to 53-54+, and I'm much more comfortable with 52 as my target.  

 

On 9/29/2022 at 12:22 AM, N4L said:

I really like both of these. I took Over BUF/BAL at 53 when the line was first released thinking it was going to rise. I just doubled down seeing that its lower and you like this one. When we are in lockstep, I hammer it. 

Baltimore's defense is bad. I dont know how else to say it. They are a bad defense right now. Maybe they figure it out but I just dont know if they have any premium players on that side of the ball. I think their LBs are a weak spot. The pats moved the ball extremely well on them. Mac Jones was running wild.  If you look at Buffalo last year, they had a couple games where they scored less than 20 points and lost, and the following week they would put up 30+.

Lamar has taken his game to another level. He is throwing with timing and accuracy. He is seeing the field extremely well. People won't be able to ignore his passing ability very soon. He is slicing teams up through the air and the ground, but mainly through the air. It was obvious to me last year that he took a big step forward in that department. They have some good weapons now. IDK if I posted it here but I did put some money on him +2000 for the MVP. I originally was only going to do comeback player of the year for +1300. Glad I added the MVP one as well because I would be pretty pissed if he won MVP and not comeback player lol 

I will be taking the dobbins over 40.5 rush yards. It's a low number because his usage is in question, however he is by and away their best RB and teams have had a lot of success running the ball against the bills. Dobbins is an extremely talented runner. I dont think he has any restrictions this week, he looks great. He should easily go over this. Might be the bet of the week tbh. 

I will play the over on each team's team total. (Buffalo 27, Baltimore 24) I feel confident in both of these team's offenses. If the game as a whole goes over, its likely because both teams scored points, but if it goes under I just have a hard time seeing both of these offenses being under those figures. More likely it's just one offense that had a rough game. So, I think it's likely I win both, but I feel really good about winning at least one of these bets. 

Oh crap, the weather for this game is going to be horrible. Apparently, the remnants of the hurricane will hit Baltimore this weekend. Lots of rain, and worse... winds. Hopefully those concerns are overblown and that it will be mild.

Allen shouldnt have issues throwing in the rain so I still think this has the potential to be a high scoring game, but that is a total gamechanger. Sh!t. I have already put down a lot on the over 53 and over 51. Not good.

DAMN

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

 

Oh crap, the weather for this game is going to be horrible. Apparently, the remnants of the hurricane will hit Baltimore this weekend. Lots of rain, and worse... winds. Hopefully those concerns are overblown and that it will be mild.

Allen shouldnt have issues throwing in the rain so I still think this has the potential to be a high scoring game, but that is a total gamechanger. Sh!t. I have already put down a lot on the over 53 and over 51. Not good.

DAMN

DAMN is right.  No loss with pulling the O51 - done.

If it's bad weather then, I'm more than happy to take BUF -3.   Slopfest will slow Lamar's elite speed down, and his arm talent doesn't translate nearly as well (and to be clear, he's the clear MVP right now IMO).   I still love Andrews O5.5 catches - because short-area and middle is where BUF allows underneath catches, and then they rally to the ball.  Andrews could end up with 7-58 or 8-65 type day.

I'm going to pivot away from CAR ML and instead go with DAL -3.   I just can't stand putting money backing Baker Mayfield.   I'll feel like it was my fault more than Baker's TBH.  😄

 

Finally, I'm going with my gut and going to take a massive gamble - on Alvin Kamara O3.5 catches at +100 for 3U.   With Andy Dalton, it reduces the chances of TO's, and it's more likely he's checking down.   MIN pass D gave up 13 targets to GB RB duo, and 8 to DET's.   PHI doesn't use the RB's at all to the same extent with Hurts' run game and Goedert, so it's an outlier.    I'm also willing to take a 1U shot on 6+ catches +550 and 0.5U on 7+ catches +1100.   Now, I need to be clear - this is NOT for the faint of heart.    Kamara's ribs could limit his work, Taysom Hill could vulture 8-10 important snaps and it's unlikely he's throwing to Kamara there.  I'm willing to risk 4.5U to win 18.5U this week, and likely ONLY this week.   These are dumb long-shot bets most weeks in 2022 with Kamara.

But, this week, we've got a game with 3 circumstances that make it almost unicorn-like:

1.  MIN is now projected as a -3.5 pt favorite.   Even though I worry about the travel advantage, losing MT & Jameis, it's hard to ignore.  But if ppl think MIN -3.5 is fair, then NO won't be in ball control, clock-drain mode, but catch-up.  Not that uncommon, but important. 

2.  Michael Thomas is out.   They have Olave, but that's really about it (Juwan Johnson is my fave +500 TD play many weeks with Jameis, but not this week...yet lol).     This creates more opps for Kamara that weren't there when MT & Olave & a healthy Jarvis Landry (with my low yardage target J-Johnson lol).     Not only is MT out, but Landry is nowhere near 100 percent.   This is HIGHLY unique.

3.  Finally, we have Jameis out.   He's such a gunslinger, it's clearly not in his DNA to use the RB (even when they are open).  Dalton, though is a TOTALLY different animal.   Checkdowns are his friends.   

So we have a QB that prefers the checkdowns, the 2 possession receivers both out,  and they're projected to be losing.   If it goes down, it goes down, but I've learned to trust my instincts here.   I'm just PRAYING Kamara doesn't get hurt before reaching the totals.  If he plays 4Q and doesn't get it, I'll live with it.  

Now since I'm going hero mode with Kamara 4.5U total - that means I should reduce my risk.  So my 2U on NO ML / RACE to 20/25 now simply becomes 1U on NO +3.5.  Normally you go with ML, but so many things are saying the travel edge can be overcome by the loss of talent, way easier to just sweat Kamara and a cover to keep it close lol.

Card's updated, I'll be at work tomorrow, so that's it until Sunday AM.  BOL!

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Dallas Goedert O42.5 rec yards - Goedert failed to hit 40 yards last week, but there's context.  It was a blowout win, and Goedert missed time - and his backup got 50+ yards while Goedert was out.   This is a simple bet to keep playing, he's literally #1 in YAC, and in #routes run, and TE continues to be the 2nd or 3rd target each week. 

I like, but weather looks bad. Lots of rain, lots of wind.

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Mark Andrews O5.5 catches +110 - I could easily take O63.5, but I can't resist the catch prop at + money.   Andrews is getting 10+ targets a game, and with the BUF system allowing catches in front of them, I actually think 6+ catches is safer than 60+ yards. 

Same here. 

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Christian Kirk O59.5 rec yards - Darius Slay doesn't make it a habit of following in the slot - so this is a Kirk slam spot.   Of all the pass options, he's got the best matchup, and PHI's blitz is going to prioritize short-intermediate area targets, which is where Kirk should thrive. 

And here.

Love Lockett, Pierce, Pitts and Hall - will take milestones on all four. Samuel is ole reliable.

[SmittyBacall]

One prop I absolutely love:

Josh Allen over 6.5 rushing attempts -140. Heavy rain and wind from Hurricane Ian barring down on Baltimore Sunday. If it gets sloppy I can see a ton of Allen involved in the running game. Also playing this as a milestone at 10, +360!

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I like, but weather looks bad. Lots of rain, lots of wind.

Same here. 

And here.

Love Lockett, Pierce, Pitts and Hall - will take milestones on all four. Samuel is ole reliable.

Given how much they use Andrews in short area / middle I’m ok with his prop. 

Kirk & Goedert though - pulled, and just in case I won't use Goedert in the 6-leg parley, either.   Much appreciated.  Love the Allen prop.  Might do o7.5 at plus money lol.   Will take it & the 10+ for +360 too, awesome find.

The 6-leg parley is now Kamara / Allen / Lockett / Hall / Pitts / CEH - the beauty is with both parleys, I have a clear final 6th leg (KC ML & CEH +140).   I can hedge out on either leg if I'm 5/5 (hoping that's the case).   With 1 of them being free bets, it's 0.5U out of a 27U stake, so it keeps the <5 rule very much intact.   Let's get it!

Edited October 1, 2022 by Broncofan