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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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Carson Wentz Over (+230.5 yards) - Wentz has had to throw the ball a lot with the Commanders chasing games, no reason we won't see this again. He has the receivers to put up numbers even when his own play is spotty. 

Jamaal Williams Over (+64.5) - No Swift this week, Lions ground game has been effective and Williams should get a big workload

Josh Allen Over (+286.5 yards) - Bills can't move the ball on the ground and Mac Jones moved the ball through the air on the Ravens defense despite a pedestrian receiver corps.

Eagles versus Jags Over (+45.5 pts) - Can't imagine this being a low scoring affair with two QB's hitting their stride 

Drake London Over (+4.5 Receptions) - Two sneaky good passing offenses on the field, Mariota is feeding the big boy on the outside

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13 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Carson Wentz Over (+230.5 yards) - Wentz has had to throw the ball a lot with the Commanders chasing games, no reason we won't see this again. He has the receivers to put up numbers even when his own play is spotty. 

Jamaal Williams Over (+64.5) - No Swift this week, Lions ground game has been effective and Williams should get a big workload

Josh Allen Over (+286.5 yards) - Bills can't move the ball on the ground and Mac Jones moved the ball through the air on the Ravens defense despite a pedestrian receiver corps.

Eagles versus Jags Over (+45.5 pts) - Can't imagine this being a low scoring affair with two QB's hitting their stride 

Drake London Over (+4.5 Receptions) - Two sneaky good passing offenses on the field, Mariota is feeding the big boy on the outside

I was all over the Jax - Phi game for over player props.  But BAL & PHI & PIT look like they’re getting more rain than initially expected.   

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FWIW 3 games with weather issues - BUF / BAL with significant rain and 15MPH wind;  NYG-CHI and JAX-PHI have 60-70 percent chance of rain and 15MPH winds. 

NYJ-PIT seems ok for now with less than 30 percent light rain.    Rest of slate looks clear.   Obv still can change but adjust projections accordingly. 

Edited by Broncofan
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4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I was all over the Jax - Phi game for over player props.  But BAL & PHI & PIT look like they’re getting more rain than initially expected.   

Interesting point here regarding the fact Heinz is home to the Pitt Panthers. That playing surface could be rough. 

This is the type of thing I wish I knew a Steelers season ticket holder who could go to the stadium early and watch warmups. 

If the surface is bad, could be an under game. I don't think I am going to bet it, but it's interesting nonetheless 

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4 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Jamaal Williams Over (+64.5) - No Swift this week, Lions ground game has been effective and Williams should get a big workload

I like this one a lot. Lions OL is fantastic and they are going to put Seattle's defense in the meat grinder. 

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1 minute ago, N4L said:

Interesting point here regarding the fact Heinz is home to the Pitt Panthers. That playing surface could be rough. 

This is the type of thing I wish I knew a Steelers season ticket holder who could go to the stadium early and watch warmups. 

If the surface is bad, could be an under game. I don't think I am going to bet it, but it's interesting nonetheless 

I’m ok with Breece Hall props because the short pass game gets even more work.    But for guys who need chunk plays or get to the 2nd level…yeah, not good.   

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Kamara inactive; damn that’s tough because not many games you can get Dalton as QB and no Michael Thomas and get 11-1 for 7 catches, or +550 for 6.   All Kamara bets void.   Vegas must have had Kamara out as part of the equation, because line stayed stable - so cashout incurred no penalty.   NO +3.5 pulled.
 

That does offer 3 tastier props for TD - Juwan Johnson +800 & Marquez Callaway +900 (now +650) & Lat Murray +1000 (now +600) - all 3 are 0.5U plays.  

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3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Kamara inactive; damn that’s tough because not many games you can get Dalton as QB and no Michael Thomas and get 11-1 for 7 catches, or +550 for 6.   All Kamara bets void.   Vegas must have had Kamara out as part of the equation, because line stayed stable - so cashout incurred no penalty.   NO +3.5 pulled.
 

That does offer 3 tastier props for TD - Juwan Johnson +800 & Marquez Callaway +900 (now +650) & Lat Murray +1000 (now +600) - all 3 are 0.5U plays.  

Ingram with 3 catches at 1st drive 3Q and hurt.  4th catch called back by penalty.    Hate that Kamara was inactive.   Think the 3U 4+ catch play was a lock.   And 6-7 would have been in play.   
 

But I wouldn’t have played Lat Murray +1000 TD either.   So I’ll take the 5.5U net result.   Karma took Kamara away and gave me the Lat Murray play here.   I’ll take it. 

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3 hours ago, Soggust said:

Is Dortch a smash bet again this week?

Seems like the ARI WRs are still hurt and his line is like 29.5 on DK and 2.5 receptions?

Sorry if this is dumb, but am I missing something obvious here?

Rondale Moore is back, but AJ Green is out so it remains to be seen what his role will be. He was kind of running all of the gadget plays that Moore typically does, so there will likely be less volume. I still think 29.5 should be easily hit but who knows.

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