Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

Olave is +3300 for OROY. I do not understand this. He has legitimately been the best offensive rookie from start to finish.  They play the panthers this weekend. I think its possible that the Saints try and feed him the ball to try and get him to win OROY. They traded their first for this guy, currently 10th overall. I think they will want to justify that pick. 

Just seems mispriced. 

 

I like Chig over 2.5 receptions, over 24.5 yards against the jags on Saturday. Burks is supposed to play, but hasnt practiced. Chig is their most athletic pass catcher Burks is out. This number is too low and I will gladly take it.

Give me Zay Jones over 54 yards. He has a great connection with Lawrence. The number is a bit deflated because of the last two weeks (jets in bad weather, then against houston when they had a huge lead and didnt throw). Titans secondary is bad and I am good with attacking them here.

Kadarious Toney over 40 yards - High scoring game, this is simply too low. 

Will have more later. 

[N4L]

On 8/12/2022 at 2:41 AM, N4L said:

Bets ive already placed

- Kyle Shanahan COY +2004 - This is a very narrative award and hes got some QB narrative that plays well in the media. He has put together some masterful gameplans with the team he assembled. He has won a lot of games over the last 3 years. Sign me right up for +2000! 

- Nick Bosa DPOY +1100 - This is another narrative award but its also about consistently stacking stats every week. Nick Bosa is about as consistent of a football player there is in the league. In week 2 of 2020 this dudes leg damn near snapped off at the dogsh!t turf in new jersey and he came back better than ever. He has the name and this defense is going to be the best in the nfl this year. +1100 

- Olave OROY +750 - Dude is a baller ready to ball out from day one like he has always done. NO shrewdly snagged a playmaker who they plan on peppering with passes

- Kenneth Walker OROY +1200 - He is a very talented, powerful runner. He feels like Petes wet dream and I think that means he is going to get fed. We get good value because vegas expects them to be losing and therefore "they will need to throw the ball" but in reality Pete is gonnna run the rock regardless. He is a tad oldschool at this point but its a winning formula overall, obviously 

- Quez Walker DROY +1000 - Great DL in front of him. They need a centerpiece to their defense. He is very talented but slid in the draft which is why we get great value. These awards require splash plays on D and he should have some opportunities in the middle of that defense

Breece Hall +500 - I havent checked recently but when I made this he was not the favorite when in reality he is the most likely player to win the award. He is such an instinctual runner with a real feel for the game. Very complete player

 

Last but certainly not least 

49ers over 10 wins:

- The defense is going to be the best in the NFL next season. The DL is stacked and extremely deep/well orchestrated, Fred Warner is a Samourai and the new gold standard in coverage, the secondary is talented and works in unison.

DeMeco Ryans is a field general who always has a plan. He was a coach on the field as a rookie. He calls fantastic games.

The niners play the AFCW which means its a bit of a murders row of QBs. Those games come a bit later in the season. That will give the offense time to sort out whatever they need to in the beginning of the season.

I am confident the offense will score enough points early, but even if they dont, this defense will keep them in games until they sort it out. 

It feels like vegas is pricing in a slow start to the season due to the unknown at QB. 10 does not feel like a very high number for how talented and well coached this team is. Schematically sound and supremely talented on both sides of the ball. 

The fact its 10 and not 10.5 also makes it a smash spot.

 

Ohhhh man. Nick Bosa is like -1500 for DPOY, Kyle is currently the favorite for COTY at +170 because of the QB narrative, Ken Walker is the favorite for OROY at -125, and the niners have 12 wins. 

Lets bring these home!

Not sure if I should hedge my COTY bet? 

On 8/31/2022 at 3:40 PM, N4L said:

update: 

I took Josh Allen to win MVP +826. This dude will win an MVP at some point. He takes over games and is a media darling. That will help a lot. 

Nakobe Dean DROY +2000 - Talented player on a team that needs production in the middle. Great DL in front of him. Should have opportunities to make plays. 

Added to my Breece hall bet +800 - I know he hasnt looked great and carter will get a lot of work early in the season, but +800 seems like great value. 

RIP BREECE HALL +800

On 8/29/2022 at 3:43 PM, N4L said:

With Garoppolo coming back, I like this bet even more. Not that he is going to be the starter (it is very clearly Trey's team) but it simply eliminates some injury risk for the mobile QB who likes to run but not slide (Trey slid for the first time in his entire life in a preseason game this year. He had not done so going back all the way to his days as a kid in MIN, apparently).

So, in the scenario Trey gets hurt, it is now Jimmy and not Sudfeld. Thats eliminates some of the risk of this bet. 

The niners may have some OL issues early in the season. Their pro-bowl level FS is also out the fist 4-6 weeks. Not good, but I still really love the roster construction overall and am pretty confident I will get at least a push here. 

Aged like wine, QB depth was super important to the 49ers season, even though Brock is not mentioned in the post lol 

[thebestever6]

Isiah Pacheco +100 to get over 59.5 how do you guys like that?

[bucksavage1]

38 minutes ago, N4L said:

Ohhhh man. Nick Bosa is like -1500 for DPOY, Kyle is currently the favorite for COTY at +170 because of the QB narrative, Ken Walker is the favorite for OROY at -125, and the niners have 12 wins. 

Lets bring these home!

Not sure if I should hedge my COTY bet? 

RIP BREECE HALL +800

Aged like wine, QB depth was super important to the 49ers season, even though Brock is not mentioned in the post lol 

Very impressive Futures! Bosa is a lock to win DPOY at this moment.

Kyle Shanahan I’m not so sure. I think Daboll has a great chance. However, for you to get it at +2000 is a STEAL. Great capping sir

[BobbyPhil1781]

Got in quite a bit with free stuff.

Mahomes 300 yards + KC win: +150

Same game parlays: Toney o36.5 and Waller o49.5: +411

Okwonko receptions o2.5: +110

Trevor Lawrence o25 rushing yards + Jags win: +320

Tee Higgins any time TD: +220

Tee Higgins 2+ TD: +1000

Feel like the Who Deys will be looking for him based on what happened last week. All made with free bets so whatever

Any advice to what I did right and wrong here would be appreciated. Definitely getting more familiar with things but just not sure what are considered good and bad wagers

Edited January 7, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781

[Broncofan]

All right, we've got a pretty light card so far, for 3 reasons:

1.   Not many lines are out, with all the Q marks on teams resting guys, or having little to play for.

2.  Vegas has wised up to the record/bonus issue somewhat - there are no lines out on Justin Jefferson, for example, knowing he needs 194 yds to break the rec yds record.

3.  All the last-minute replacements already coming in (Carr & Jacobs out for LV, for instance).

 

So with that in mind, I have 3 player props out already, 2 I am targeting (but not out yet), and 3 TD props so far (I warned you all it's light):

WEEK 18 PLAYER PROPS & LONGSHOT TD

PLAYER PROPS

SAT

Treylon Burks O36.5 rec yds FD, 50+ rec yds +200 & 75+ rec yds +520 0.5U DK - it's crazy, FD took down the alt line already, with news he has a groin issue.  I just can't see him sitting this out, and if he plays, well I have to take him vs. the Jags D.

Chigozam Okonkwu O24.5 rec yds FD/DK 2U, 40+ rec yds +210, 60+ rec yds +580 0.5U FD - along with Robert Woods, these are literally the only 3 receivers I trust to consistently get chunk plays or volume.   

SUN

Tyler Higbee O30.5 rec yds 2U FD, no alt lines out yet (but will take 1U & 0.5U alt lines) - at that number, I imagine it will be close to Conklin's, numbers, and I'll definitely take the 40/60 likely at +220 & +550 or better.  75+ isn't crazy to consider, although at 0.5U statkes.

Tyler Conklin o27.5 2U / 50+ Rec yds +300/ 70+ Rec yds +750 0.5U FD - Flacco averaged 8 targets per game to Conklin, MIA bottom 10 TE D.  
 

Jahan Dotson O35.5 rec yds 2U FD - no alt lines with Howell first game but Wentz only reason he didn’t get past 50 last 4 weeks in a row.

 

SUN PLAYER PROPS TO TARGET THAT AREN'T OUT YET 

 

Rashid Shaheed Rec yds 2U - you know the drill here.  CAR missing their CB’s really makes this a smash spot assuming it’s still in 40 range.  

 

Brandin Cooks main rec yds 2U (?alt lines?) - this will depend on how high the number is.   I'm targeting this because HOU faces IND - and we've seen the slot guy eat with IND's slot CB Kenny Moore out (still out).    If the line is low enough, I'll consider alt lines, but it's at least a 2U play.

 

Sam Howell rush yd props if 20 or less 2U - we know Howell is a running QB in UNC’s system.   With DAL pass rush and no Gibson I think we’ll see him use his feet like he did in preseason.    No alt lines likely out and frankly not a good play to take alt lines with his first start.  

 

Latavius Murray rush yd props if CIN wins - LAC then gets 5 seed so likely resting a lot of guys - without their starters they truly are a bottom 3 rush D, and less risk of the O keeping gamescript to pass heavy for DEN.   If it’s in 50’s I’m almost certainly going alt lines.  

 

WEEK 18 LONGSHOT TD PROPS

SAT

Chigozam Okonkwo +700 (now +600) & Austin Hooper +700 0.5U each - the Jags pass D is very TE leaky, so I have to play both guys.   

I'll also likely take Treylon Burks if his odds hit +500 (they were +450 on opening on FD, then down to +400 for now).

 

SUN

Dante Pettis +700 (now +600) FD 1U, ?2+ TD prop? - he's their main RZ target with all the other WR's out, so this is just too good to pass up.  Frankly, I'd probably drop 0.2U-0.3U on 2+ TD's, given how bad MIN's pass D can be.

Tyler Conklin +500 FD - see writeup in player props above.

Peyton Hendershot +2000 & Jake Ferguson +1200 FD 0.5U each - this is more about the WAS D being pass funnel, and while they're good against the TE, we're usually taking 12 or even 13 formation where the backups score.  Worth a dip in the pool. 
 

Donald Parham +800 FD 0.5U - Herbert sitting if BAL wins main reason to go 0.5U. 

Shane Zylstra +1000 and Brock Wright +900 0.5U each FD - same deal with GB’s TE D.

 

Sadly, Vegas has wised up on some of our favorites of late - Rashid Shaheem is +250, Juwan Johnson is +330.   If either crept up to +400, I'd certainly consider it.

 

Several games aren't out yet, so I'm looking at Falcon TD props for guys like Mycole Pruitt, and of course LAC's props with their backups (including my "pair him with Juwan Johnson for TD mancrushes" Donald Parham).  

 

So far that's only 14.5U in player props for 5 players, with 4 more targeted players, and 6U in TD props - but with so many Q marks for games, it's definitely smarter to play lower stakes (this is almost 70 percent of my stakes of late, but IMO that's reasonable given the variability present this week).  BOL!

Edited January 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

BOL!

DK has specials, +650 each for Mahomes 430+ passing and JJeff 194+ receiving. Mahomes is +400 to pass for 400 yards elsewhere.. what do you all think?

Edited January 7, 2023 by adamq

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, adamq said:

DK has specials, +650 each for Mahomes 430+ passing and JJeff 194+ receiving. Mahomes is +400 to pass for 400 yards elsewhere.. what do you all think?

Those are sucker odds.   That should be at least +800 to +1000.    Jefferson's prop has never been higher than something in the 90's, and mostly in the 80's.    125+ should have at worst been +200, 150+ about +400...but then as you get above 150, the increase should be more extreme. 

Meh.

Edited January 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

6 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Any advice to what I did right and wrong here would be appreciated. Definitely getting more familiar with things but just not sure what are considered good and bad wagers

All of those seem fine, the main thing to monitor is how much risk you take on the Higgins TD props. Would hate to see you play them in a way where you lose money if Higgins gets one TD and not two. You need to make sure you lock in profit if he scores once. 

EDIT: Missed the part where you parlayed them. Play them straight, make the parlay 10% of the strategy and not the main strategy. 

If you are going to do a single game parlay, try and correlate them. For example, if you think a game can be a shootout, you can play the over passing yards of each QB. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by N4L

[Broncofan]

Adding Tyler Conklin +500 TD and looking at his yardage prop if around 30 for 2U and 50+ alt line (not out yet).    Flacco targeted him 7, 8 & 9x in his 3 games and MIA bottom 10 vs TE.

Added Donald Parham +800 TD FD - more risk with Herbert sitting if CIN wins but then Parham plays even more. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

6 hours ago, N4L said:

All of those seem fine, the main thing to monitor is how much risk you take on the Higgins TD props. Would hate to see you play them in a way where you lose money if Higgins gets one TD and not two. You need to make sure you lock in profit if he scores once. 

EDIT: Missed the part where you parlayed them. Play them straight, make the parlay 10% of the strategy and not the main strategy. 

If you are going to do a single game parlay, try and correlate them. For example, if you think a game can be a shootout, you can play the over passing yards of each QB. 

Appreciate the feedback. 

I didn't parlay the Higgins TD picks. I just put a lot more on the any time TD and a small "hey this is awesome if it hits" multiple TD. There will definitely be a profit of he scores a single TD.

A very good point about the parlays as well. The only one I did was two people's receiving yards that I feel will have bigger days

I'm still learning here so just wanting to make sure I'm not missing something and making wagers that could be better spent elsewhere. Appreciate the feedback, again

Edited January 7, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781

[adamq]

1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I'm still learning here so just wanting to make sure I'm not missing something and making wagers that could be better spent elsewhere. Appreciate the feedback, again

PFF has some decent betting podcasts that can give you some advise on overall strategy and some week-to-week matchups to watch. PFF betting podcast and PFF Forecast (though I havent listened since Eric Eager left last year)

 

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Those are sucker odds.   That should be at least +800 to +1000.    Jefferson's prop has never been higher than something in the 90's, and mostly in the 80's.    125+ should have at worst been +200, 150+ about +400...but then as you get above 150, the increase should be more extreme. 

Meh.

Mahomes is the one I was considering, but 430 is such a massive mark. It would take Stidham to put up some real points and I just don't see it happening. 

 

I do need something to root for while watching, so I'm taking

Kelce TD -140,   2 TDs +475

Normally I would never take a minus money TD prop, but Kelce absolutely dominates LV and is going through a scoring drought that we just don't see from him. Expect that to turn around this afternoon.

Edited January 7, 2023 by adamq

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, adamq said:

PFF has some decent betting podcasts that can give you some advise on overall strategy and some week-to-week matchups to watch. PFF betting podcast and PFF Forecast (though I havent listened since Eric Eager left last year)

 

Mahomes is the one I was considering, but 430 is such a massive mark. It would take Stidham to put up some real points and I just don't see it happening. 

 

I do need something to root for while watching, so I'm taking

Kelce TD -140,   2 TDs +575

Normally I would never take a minus money TD prop, but Kelce absolutely dominates LV and is going through a scoring drought that we just don't see from him. Expect that to turn around this afternoon.

No argument - once the props are - money though I’d wait to see which ones get boosted.   You never know if Kelce gets the +120 boost etc.  

[Broncofan]

Ok my watch list for props has changed somewhat updated above but here’s what I’m targeting that isn’t out yet: 

SUN PLAYER PROPS TO TARGET THAT AREN'T OUT YET 

 

Rashid Shaheed Rec yds 2U - you know the drill here.  CAR missing their CB’s really makes this a smash spot assuming it’s still in 40 range.  

 

Brandin Cooks main rec yds 2U (?alt lines?) - this will depend on how high the number is.   I'm targeting this because HOU faces IND - and we've seen the slot guy eat with IND's slot CB Kenny Moore out (still out).    If the line is low enough, I'll consider alt lines, but it's at least a 2U play.

 

Sam Howell rush yd props if 20 or less 2U - we know Howell is a running QB in UNC’s system.   With DAL pass rush and no Gibson I think we’ll see him use his feet like he did in preseason.    No alt lines likely out and frankly not a good play to take alt lines with his first start.  

 

Jahan Dotson main rec yds 2U if 40 or less - Wentz absolutely killed this - but I'm optimistic that Sam Bradford will be better...by simply not being Carson Wentz.   I'm assuming this prop is going to be mega low (like sub-40).   If it's closer to 30, I'll have to consider alt lines here.

 

Tyler Conklin main rec yds 2U - I'm assuming the total is going to stay in the low 30's, given it's not SEA that is playing the Jets, and with Flacco in.    Here's the thing - Flacco loves throwing it to Conklin, with 7, 8 & 9 targets.   And a TD in one of those 3 games.    So yeah, hoping it stays low, I'll go back to the well, given Flacco's willingness to throw it his way, and MIA being a bottom 10 TE DVOA (not as bad as SEA, but still worth targeting).

 

Latavius Murray rush yd props if CIN wins - LAC then gets 5 seed so likely resting a lot of guys - without their starters they truly are a bottom 3 rush D, and less risk of the O keeping gamescript to pass heavy for DEN.   If it’s in 50’s I’m almost certainly going alt lines.  

Edited January 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Jahan Dotson main rec yds 2U if 40 or less - Wentz absolutely killed this - but I'm optimistic that Sam Bradford will be better...by simply not being Carson Wentz.   I'm assuming this prop is going to be mega low (like sub-40).   If it's closer to 30, I'll have to consider alt lines here.  

I wanna think this is just a typo, but you might still be right.