Broncofan Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 14 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: @Broncofan Latavius Murray went off on the last drive in a huge way. Props to you, my friend. You really got to give this thread a lesson/breakdown on your process - what analytics you use, etc - and what goes in to determing your plays. I myself would love to know. TBH, I don't think I can define it. But in principle: 1. Get the gamescript right. Who's going to win, and how. 2. Does the usage pattern align with a higher ceiling? Or is there a new change in opportunity (injury / promotion / new QB) ? 3. Finally, does the matchup allow for a smash spot? CLE run D, LAC run D, Indy slot corner missing, etc. The same applies for TD props. In general, make an estimate of what you think the yardage prop should be in your mind, and then think in your mind what the TD prop is. If there's a mismatch, then it's worth taking. Keep in mind I "only" got 50 percent of my player props, but over 50 percent of my high-confidence plays - which then means at least 1 alt line hit. That's how you get a 11.1U profit off a 20U stake with going "only" 5-4. Likewise, I barely hit 20 percent of my TD props, but I'm going +400 or better almost all the time, so it pays off that way. The key assumption - don't assume Vegas is wrong...they're right MOST of the time. The key is to find where you think you have leverage. As to how...well, that's tougher. If it was easy to replicate, we'd all be making $. Just happy to share in the success. Edited January 9, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Broncofan said: TBH, I don't think I can define it. But in principle: 1. Get the gamescript right. Who's going to win, and how. 2. Does the usage pattern align with a higher ceiling? 3. Finally, does the matchup allow for a smash spot? CLE run D, LAC run D, Indy slot corner missing, etc. The same applies for TD props. In general, make an estimate of what you think the yardage prop should be in your mind, and then think in your mind what the TD prop is. If there's a mismatch, then it's worth taking. Keep in mind I "only" got 50 percent of my player props, but over 50 percent of my high-confidence plays - which then means at least 1 alt line hit. That's how you get a 11.1U profit off a 20U stake with going "only" 5-4. Likewise, I barely hit 20 percent of my TD props, but I'm going +400 or better almost all the time, so it pays off that way. The key assumption - don't assume Vegas is wrong...they're right MOST of the time. The key is to find where you think you have leverage. As to how...well, that's tougher. If it was easy to replicate, we'd all be making $. Just happy to share in the success. Awesome. Can you link any tools you use for snaps, targets, practice reports, etc.? Edited January 9, 2023 by SmittyBacall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, SmittyBacall said: Awesome. Can you link any tools you use for snaps, targets, practice reports, etc.? Footballguys for snaps / red zone targets / targets. Football outsiders for DVOA vs receiver. The final part - I try to watch every game. Vegas is about 3 games behind new trends. So when Rashid Shaheem becomes the 2 WR you can leverage for that time. This week was when they finally caught up. That’s what made FD not changing Juwan Johnson TD props so weird lol. But I won’t complain. The last part about watching games helps so much. It doesn’t always work but that’s how you know Zylstra / Mitchell split work and not just Brock Wright post-Hockenson. Or that Velus Jones (or Dante Pettis later) will get snaps in RZ at crazy odds. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 I put a unit on Jameson Williams td and let's just say that holding call is making me turn the game off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, thebestever6 said: I put a unit on Jameson Williams td and let's just say that holding call is making me turn the game off. Tough beat. He should get another opportunity at some point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 10 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Well, boys. I did it. A cool 117.5 units to end the season. Hell yeah! Congrats! Great work 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I honestly forgot all about my Justin Jefferson OPOY bet I made before the season. I bet 165 to win 1450. I think there’s a solid 80-90% chance Jefferson wins that award. Only way he doesn’t win it is if they give Mahomes MVP and Hurts OPOY, but that is really unlikely. I saw in my account I had 165 pending and was like wtf is this lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Been on an 0-13 downswing lately. TCU sneaky upset was not the move. Slamming Bills + Bengals this weekend. Take that, life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Not many lines I like this week at all. Might just do a 3 team tease of 49ers, Bills, Bengals and call it a weekend. I wish I had more of a read on Chargers/Jags or Cowboys/Bucs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, Soggust said: Been on an 0-13 downswing lately. 14 minutes ago, Soggust said: Bengals this weekend. Please don't! 😅 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I haven’t bet since Week 1 and likely won money on Justin Jefferson being OPOY. So why not take some winnings and make a terrible parlay bet! 6 Team Parlay Buffalo -10 1/2 49ers -10 Jacksonville PK Vikings -3 Ravens +6 1/2 Buccaneers ML +130 100 to win 5900 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, BayRaider said: I haven’t bet since Week 1 and likely won money on Justin Jefferson being OPOY. So why not take some winnings and make a terrible parlay bet! 6 Team Parlay Buffalo -10 1/2 -> -9.5 49ers -10 -> -9.5 Jacksonville PK Vikings -3 Ravens +6 1/2 -> +7 or 7.5 Buccaneers ML +130 100 to win 5900 I would suggest buying points on the Buffalo, SF, and Baltimore legs if you can. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Please don't! 😅 Haha I'm gonna win one way or the other darnit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: I would suggest buying points on the Buffalo, SF, and Baltimore legs if you can. I would suggest not doing a 6 team parlay lol I am looking to cmc and elijah mitchell rushing props once they are released. The Seattle LBs cannot run fit and the niners ran the ball with ease in both matchups. Will look to monitor Aaron Banks status, he is our 2nd best OLman I also just looked, the niners are +151 to win the NFC. Good lord, that is absurd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 28 minutes ago, N4L said: I would suggest not doing a 6 team parlay lol I am looking to cmc and elijah mitchell rushing props once they are released. The Seattle LBs cannot run fit and the niners ran the ball with ease in both matchups. Will look to monitor Aaron Banks status, he is our 2nd best OLman I also just looked, the niners are +151 to win the NFC. Good lord, that is absurd. You are correct sir, I’m burning money. Hitting a six team parlay is like 1% to 1.5% chance. But I have to use offshore books since sports betting is still not legal in california. I’d rather not consistently straight bet with offshore books, it’s a pain in the butt. That’s why I only do futures and a random big parlay sometimes. If sports betting was legal I would never do parlays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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