thebestever6 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 39 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Gotta take a 2U +240 JAX ML shot (opened live after injury). Still +220 on DK. it's up to 330 on bet365 I'm so tempted to take it but Pacheco looks great and Mahomes may be back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I'm so hyped I did 3 plays beside broncosfan 1 being Pacheco getting 100 yards. I cashed out at $152 when he was at 81 yards thinking they lose McKinnon alot. And he only finished at 95 so I would of been chasing that $168 dollar payout and got nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, thebestever6 said: it's up to 330 on bet365 I'm so tempted to take it but Pacheco looks great and Mahomes may be back. It loses, but that's the life of live betting. Looking back JAX is going to kick themselves for not doubling Kelce at all during the game - once Mahomes went down and even when he returned, there was zero mobility, and it was clear Reid was going to lean on the run/short pass game - and yet JAX made no adjustments. What an opportunity lost for them. The triple-whammy bet-wise was that KC getting up 10, and no JAX doubling Kelce - no need to go after Juju, and no need to go for the WR's in the RZ (so no Watson targets there either), it was just Kelce all day. Way it goes, injuries will change the gamescript completely. Given that, I'm grateful that Etienne O17.5 rec yds hit - 18 on the nose; and that's a direct effect of Etienne getting gamescripted out of passing situations trailing by 10 - but it also shows the direct benefit of getting in early on over props you like. A lot of guys took 18.5/19.5 and heartbreak city. If JAX had ever tied it up or taken the lead, we'd have seen a lot more of him. Double whammy for JAX. The Trevor rush prop was solid, he was going to have to run to keep them in the game. The live bet makes this a -4.5U start, looking for NYG-PHI and James/Goedert to help turn things around. Edited January 22, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Broncofan said: James/Goedert to help turn things around did you take any alternate lines on Goedert? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, thebestever6 said: did you take any alternate lines on Goedert? 70+ for +240 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I used a small amount on a Kelce 2 TD and Etienne 2 TD. Almost hit lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Took a little parlay of: Jaguars (+9.5) at Chiefs Giants (+7.5) at Eagles Bengals (ML) at Bills Cowboys (ML) at 49ers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) Dustin Fox is gonna turn $50 into a million if Knox and Schultz score the first TDs in their respective games tomorrow Edited January 22, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Richie James you gotta catch that fluck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Ritchie James cost us large. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, thebestever6 said: Richie James you gotta catch that fluck! That was LITERALLY a 15U swing, 10U at the very least - he catches that, he's going for 40+ yards minimum, and more likely a 72 yard TD...and hits 60+ @ +180, 80+ 0.5U @+420, 100+ 0.5U @ +880, plus the +380 TD - so 12.1U extra profit, for those 3U in alt lines and TD props....man. On the other hand, James & Goedert were literally the ONLY 2 guys who went over on their receiving props, so those were the 2 guys to play. Just unfortunate to miss the lucrative alt lines. Jones didn't his rushing prop, and James/Cager didn't score, so with NYG +7.5 missing, that's -1U for the game, so -5.5U overall today. Still, that's gambling - given that James & Goedert were the only 2 to hit their props, and I hit 2/3 with Lawrence / Etienne (Juju 3.5U play and 2U ML live play are what did me in with JAX-KC), I can't complain, had the chances. On to tomorrow! Edited January 22, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 10 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Dustin Fox is gonna turn $50 into a million if Knox and Schultz score the first TDs in their respective games tomorrow He's 2/2 and the cashout is only like $600. That's so weak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 9:43 AM, SmittyBacall said: Travis Etienne over receiving yards ≈17 yards (estimate) + 25 yards - It's very odd to me why JAX doesn't use him more out of the backfield, as he's a very capable receiver. Has his this 3/5 games. KC 32nd in RB receptions against, and 29th in RB receiving yards against. Line should come in and around 17. Explosive enough to cover in one catch. High scoring game script + KC lead narrative helps. By a yard, but we’ll take it. On 1/17/2023 at 9:43 AM, SmittyBacall said: Miles Sanders over rushing yards ≈74 yards (estimate) + 100 yards - He's had a quietly productive year and really feasts on bad rushing defenses. Had 17 carries for 144 and 2 TDs in second NYG matchup a month ago. NYG is 32nd against the rush DVOA, and has allowed the 26th most RB rushing yards all year. Hurts coming off injury, PHI might rely a little bit more on running through RBs? Game script leaning in Sanders favor (though I think it will be a close game). Hit. Could have easily been 100+, but blowout saw more touches for the back ups. On 1/17/2023 at 9:43 AM, SmittyBacall said: Daniel Jones over rushing yards ≈ 40 yards (estimate) +50 yards +75 yards - Ran like a mad man last weak (albeit against a very bad Vikings defense). PHI is 28th in QB rushing yards allowed. If NYG pulls the upset Daniel Jones/Daboll will have to hold nothing back. Miss. Two things contributed to this: first, it felt like we saw a ton of zone. Philly D was squatting on all the short stuff and had eyes on Jones the whole time. And two, that defense is fast, man. Anytime Jones attempted to run the corner he was pushed out for a minimal gain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Looks like we're going to have some snow in Buffalo today. Only an inch expected per weather.com but it's the same cell that hit us overnight and it came down hard and quick. We already have at least 2" here. Just throwing this out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 15 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Dustin Fox is gonna turn $50 into a million if Knox and Schultz score the first TDs in their respective games tomorrow I have the same bet locked in, except it’s only a $1 wager for 10k, and the final two legs are Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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