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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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3 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

it's up to 330 on bet365 I'm so tempted to take it but Pacheco looks great and Mahomes may be back.

It loses, but that's the life of live betting.    Looking back JAX is going to kick themselves for not doubling Kelce at all during the game - once Mahomes went down and even when he returned, there was zero mobility, and it was clear Reid was going to lean on the run/short pass game - and yet JAX made no adjustments.    What an opportunity lost for them.    The triple-whammy bet-wise was that KC getting up 10, and no JAX doubling Kelce - no need to go after Juju, and no need to go for the WR's in the RZ (so no Watson targets there either), it was just Kelce all day.   Way it goes, injuries will change the gamescript completely.

Given that, I'm grateful that Etienne O17.5 rec yds hit - 18 on the nose; and that's a direct effect of Etienne getting gamescripted out of passing situations trailing by 10 - but it also shows the direct benefit of getting in early on over props you like.  A lot of guys took 18.5/19.5 and heartbreak city.    If JAX had ever tied it up or taken the lead, we'd have seen a lot more of him.    Double whammy for JAX.      The Trevor rush prop was solid, he was going to have to run to keep them in the game.     The live bet makes this a -4.5U start, looking for NYG-PHI and James/Goedert to help turn things around.

Edited by Broncofan
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1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Richie James you gotta catch that fluck!

That was LITERALLY a 15U swing, 10U at the very least - he catches that, he's going for 40+ yards minimum, and more likely a 72 yard TD...and hits 60+ @ +180, 80+ 0.5U  @+420, 100+ 0.5U +880, plus the +380 TD - so 12.1U extra profit, for those 3U in alt lines and TD props....man.

On the other hand, James & Goedert were literally the ONLY 2 guys who went over on their receiving props, so those were the 2 guys to play.   Just unfortunate to miss the lucrative alt lines.

Jones didn't his rushing prop, and James/Cager didn't score, so with NYG +7.5 missing, that's -1U for the game, so -5.5U overall today.   Still, that's gambling - given that James & Goedert were the only 2 to hit their props, and I hit 2/3 with Lawrence / Etienne (Juju 3.5U play and 2U ML live play are what did me in with JAX-KC), I can't complain, had the chances. 

On to tomorrow!

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On 1/17/2023 at 9:43 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Travis Etienne over receiving yards ≈17 yards (estimate) + 25 yards - It's very odd to me why JAX doesn't use him more out of the backfield, as he's a very capable receiver. Has his this 3/5 games. KC 32nd in RB receptions against, and 29th in RB receiving yards against. Line should come in and around 17. Explosive enough to cover in one catch. High scoring game script + KC lead narrative helps.

By a yard, but we’ll take it.

On 1/17/2023 at 9:43 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Miles Sanders over rushing yards ≈74 yards (estimate) + 100 yards - He's had a quietly productive year and really feasts on bad rushing defenses. Had 17 carries for 144 and 2 TDs in second NYG matchup a month ago. NYG is 32nd against the rush DVOA, and has allowed the 26th most RB rushing yards all year. Hurts coming off injury, PHI might rely a little bit more on running through RBs? Game script leaning in Sanders favor (though I think it will be a close game).

Hit. Could have easily been 100+, but blowout saw more touches for the back ups.

On 1/17/2023 at 9:43 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Daniel Jones over rushing yards ≈ 40 yards (estimate) +50 yards +75 yards - Ran like a mad man last weak (albeit against a very bad Vikings defense). PHI is 28th in QB rushing yards allowed. If NYG pulls the upset Daniel Jones/Daboll will have to hold nothing back.

Miss. Two things contributed to this: first, it felt like we saw a ton of zone. Philly D was squatting on all the short stuff and had eyes on Jones the whole time. And two, that defense is fast, man. Anytime Jones attempted to run the corner he was pushed out for a minimal gain. 

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