Weekly Bets Thread

[adamq]

RayRay McCloud +1800 Pointsbet, +1600 FD.. hard to say how much run he will get, I'm seeing anywhere from 12-44% of offensive snaps over the last 6 weeks or so. I do expect at least a couple targets to go his way, maybe an end around or something of that ilk as well.

Edited January 22, 2023 by adamq

[BobbyPhil1781]

20 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Dustin Fox is gonna turn $50 into a million if Knox and Schultz score the first TDs in their respective games tomorrow

 

He just missed it by Knox not getting it. Man, that has to sting a bit lol

[thebestever6]

man we were so close to Juice getting a Td.

[BobbyPhil1781]

Thank you very, very much for that last pass lol. Had SF -2.5 in the first and second half plus Purdy o200 alt and Dak o200 alt and he was at 198 until that very last play. 

Whew

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

man we were so close to Juice getting a Td.

Younger Dak walks in on that run he's tackled at 5.   

James drops a sure TD. 

Agnew has 1 guy to beat 2x and can't shake him.    

Burrow sneak gets passed up, not once, but 2x at the 1 yard line.   

Prop-wise, CMC tweaks a calf, and SF piles up 115+ yds rushing, 108 by non-QB's...but not CMC's 63+.   UGH.    Schultz then goes brain cramp mode on final drive on multiple targets...ugh.   

Way it goes, excruciating week.    But as context - only 5 overs hit on the KC-JAX game for the starting players rush/rec props (Etienne rec yds, Lawrence rush yds, Z-Jones rec yds, Pacheco rush yds and Kelce props), and only 3 hit for PHI-NYG (Goedert, James, Sanders rush), 3 for CIN-BUF (Knox rec yds, Hurst rec yds, Mixon rec yds) and 3 for SF-DAL (Dak rush yds, Lamb rec yds, Kittle rec yds).  That's the cautionary tale as the slate shortens - Vegas lines really tighten up.   Remember when I said I was hoping to get Goedert at 40 - it was 46.5 opening, 51.5 closing.   James was 42.5 opening, 46.5 closing.     With the 6-game WC weekend and the 12+ game reg season slate, there are more leverage opps - like most ppl, I get tempted to have a prop on either side to root for with the games, but this is probably where unders are a better play.   It's just not as much fun (but less fun when they lose too lol).

Either way, Week 20 breaks the hot streak - 1-3 ATS -4U (including the 2U live JAX ML bet) , the player props go 6-4 -2u (as 3/4 losing props lose 3.5U, and James / Goedert don't hit alt lines <only Knox>), and a 0-for TD weekend, so that's -9U.   -15U is rough, but that's gambling (although 15U is the swing with that Richie James drop....ack)  The only good news is my pre-season SB plays for PHI & SB for 120U+ to win the SB (and 60+ if they lose) guarantees a nice end-of-season boost (I had BUF for 80+ though, way it goes).   Will ease the pain of this week lol.

On to Week 21!

________________________________________________

WEEK 19 FINAL

ATS/ ML & RACE

42-34-2 ATS, 15-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +30.2U. (-4U, 1-3 Week 20 <including live JAX ML 2U>, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

130-126  BALANCE  +65.0U (-2U Week 20, 6-4 <but 3/4 L's -3.5U each>  - Now 71-66 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams; Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence;  Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin; Week 18 - Chidogam Okonkwo TNF & Brandin Cooks / Latavius Murray / Jahan Dotson & Week 19 - D-Parham / I-Hodgins / S-Barkley / TB12 / C-Godwin / M-Evans / D-Schultz; Wk20 - D-Knox)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

42-174, BALANCE +161.4U (-9U Week 20, 0-10 - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwo +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000  & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800 & Isaiah Likely +1100; Week 18 Chidogam Okonkwo +700 & Week 19 C-Beasley +700 / I-Hodgins +400 / J-Burrow +650 / D-Robinson +650 / J-Jones +500)
 

TOTAL:  +256.6U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 - +23.9U, Week 18  - +6.1U; Week 19 - +27.8U; Week 20 - -15.0U <ugh - don't drop that pass Richie James> )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Bound to happen, and the defenses really kicked it into another gear this week.

 

SF advances, that's what truly matters here

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, adamq said:

Bound to happen, and the defenses really kicked it into another gear this week.

 

SF advances, that's what truly matters here

Yessir, but is it too much to ask for Richie James to hang on to that one ball?   Won't lie, had a baaaad feeling after that happened (15U swing on that one play .... -15U for the week lol).

[Broncofan]

OK no rest for the weary.....the lines for Championship weekend are out, and if you are going to back PHI or CIN - the time to bet is now (sorry @adamq).  

CIN opened at +2, but lines are moving across books to +1 or +1.5 - I took the CIN ML at +100 on DK for 2U.

PHI opened up at -2.5, already some books are moving at -3.  I got PHI -2.5 -110 on DK 2.2U to win 2U. 

 

The line action is almost certainly going to move CIN's way more with Mahomes' injury news - a HAS will limit him as much, if not more next week than it did on Saturday, as the swelling kicks in - and while it's 75-80 percent likely he plays, if the swelling gets really bad, or he has a setback, there's that small chance he doesn't play, either.  When you combine the fact that CIN could get 1-3 starting OL back this week, both sets of news makes it apparent to me that ppl are going to back CIN hard this week.   

As for PHI/SF, PHI's dismantling and HFA, it's going to be a big talking point, along with the very real warts that the SF O showed vs. a DAL D that was the step up in competition ppl were looking for.   Moreover, SF clearly had something going on with Christian McCaffrey - he was being given heating pads and stretched out for his calf, and while I think he plays, this concern is likely only going to push the public to PHI's side.

To be clear, if you like SF or KC - then you should wait.  If you like PHI or CIN, the time to bet is now.   The public isn't always wrong - but it's definitely a bad idea to catch a public wave at the end - the odds of winning go down if you wait until Sunday, and get a worse line.  BOL!

Edited January 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

player props already out for next week nothing is popping out to me everyone that hit their props last week seems inflated.

[49erurtaza]

 

[BayRaider]

I’m such a huge fan of the over in the 49er Eagle game. Those coaches are gonna throw out the kitchen sink like we’ve never seen before. 

[BobbyPhil1781]

Who Deys started out +1.5 and I regretfully didn't jump on as they're -1.5 now. 

[adamq]

Mahomes was +800 or longer all year long until it started hitting way late in the year. The +350 lines were just tbere because he went on a streak

[adamq]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

I’m such a huge fan of the over in the 49er Eagle game. Those coaches are gonna throw out the kitchen sink like we’ve never seen before. 

Taking off my fandom hat, I do like Philly's TT over because that offense is perfectly tuned to exploit SFs weaknesses... SF should be able to match them score for score, but we'd need the run game to gash and Purdy to be flawless 

[Broncofan]

WEEK 21 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

ATS/ML

CIN ML +100 2U - from before.  No guarantee Mahomes plays and total guarantee he’s very limited mobility wise.  KC can still win this but if you believe in CIN you take this line now it’s only going to move more to CIN. 
 

PHI -2.5 2U -  IMO same deal here.  I think it gets to -3 and might even cross over.  

 

PLAYER PROPS

For PHI/SF if ppl like the over for PHI IMO you have 3 correlation plays: 

-Jalen Hurts O240.5 pass yards 2U DK - if you’re going to beat SF you attack the secondary.   I had Hurts at 265 in my projections so this is an easy play. 

-Devonta Smith O67.5 Rec yds 2U  / 90+ Rec yds +220 & 110+ +500 0.5U FD - if Ward stays with AJ Brown he should absolutely smash.   The SF DB’s can’t match his ability. 
 

-AJ Brown O68.5 Rec yds FD 2U -  only reason I’m not taking alt lines is he looked a little dinged up.  Charvarius Ward is good but healthy AJB gets his here. 

Dallas Goedert O45.5 Rec yds DK 2U - I thought the catch prop might be better given Fred Warner’s ability to take away the deeper routes.    I’ll wait to see where the catch prop goes at O3.5.  
 

Meanwhile on SF there’s one obvious play: 

George Kittle O43.5 Rec yds, 60+ Rec yds +210 & 80+ Rec yds +500 0.5U - if SF can’t run then Kittle will be matched up vs PHI LB in short area.  CGJ is very good but Kittle still thrived vs. NO.  Worth the alt line play. 

Sadly the RB split and CMC calf issue mean it’s almost impossible to be confident on rush props.  I’m leaning on unders here across the board for both teams except Hurts but I’m already invested in his pass props. 

For CIN-KC there are 3 players that I’ll back:

-Joe Burrow O17.5 rush yds DK 2U - he ran for 40+ vs KC and he isn’t afraid to use his legs when they’re facing a decent pass rush.  

-Samaje Perine O16.5 rush yds 2U  / O13.5 Rec yds 2U DK - Joe Mixon’s big day hides the fact that Perine eats into his playing time when there’s a pass rush issue or it’s a back and forth game, for his blocking.  I actually project an almost even split so I’d take both Rec & rush props at those low #’s.  

-Tee Higgins O55.5 Rec yds 2U 80+ Rec yds +240 FD - yes he’s been on a slump since the 1st BUF game.    But this number is too low vs the KC secondary.   The potential to go 80+ means an alt line play is def in order.  
 

Not surprisingly Kelce props aren’t out yet until they know Mahomes status for sure.   Have to wait on KC. 

 

 LONGSHOT TD PROPS 

Kyle Jusczyk +1400 FD 0.5U - you know the drill.   So close last week.   

Juan Jennings +800 FD 0.5U - slot matchup against PHI secondary the best for SF so those odds make 0.5U worth it.  

Quez Watkins +800 FD 0.5U - same deal on flip side SF secondary vulnerable to deep shot.  

Will almost certainly be willing to take a boost on Hurts or Kittle TD solo plays (not both together lol).  

Justin Watson +1200 FD 0.5U - pocket Mahomes mostly short stuff but a boundary deep ball more likely too.   That’s Watson.  Worth 0.5U 

Samaji Perine +500 / +5000 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - see prop write up.  

Will almost certainly take Chase / Kittle solo TD boosts.   

 

So that’s 3U for TD, 21U in player props and 4U in ATS / ML plays, for a total of 28U.   Definitely enough for now. BOL! 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Broncofan
Added TD plays; Forgot Kittle & 2nd Devonta Smith alt line - added.