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Weekly Bets Thread


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Just now, Broncofan said:

Well if the catch prop is 5+ then the yardage prop is better.   He’s def a 10+ YPC guy.    

I looked up San Francisco's stats against tes and the good ones Waller, Kelce seem to give them problems, but who knows with Philly there are so many mouths too feed.

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I kinda like Kittles over 44.5 Philly is good against Tes, but they haven't faced one of Kittles caliber all year. I also think kittle is Purdys security blanket. But you kinda run into the same problem with Philly so many mouths to feed Deebo, Ayuik, McCaffrey, Kittle.

Kelce came out at 76.5 Knox seemed to crack the code last week towards the end with Cincys D, but that was garbage time gotta figure the Bengals do everything they can to take Kelce away.

Edited by thebestever6
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On 1/23/2023 at 10:02 PM, thebestever6 said:

I kinda like Kittles over 44.5 Philly is good against Tes, but they haven't faced one of Kittles caliber all year. I also think kittle is Purdys security blanket. But you kinda run into the same problem with Philly so many mouths to feed Deebo, Ayuik, McCaffrey, Kittle.

Kelce came out at 76.5 Knox seemed to crack the code last week towards the end with Cincys D, but that was garbage time gotta figure the Bengals do everything they can to take Kelce away.

Kittle I completely forgot to add to list - took him at O43.5 Rec yd opener.   If you don’t think SF can sustain a running attack and keep a lead (both have to happen) - Kittle vs. CGJ & the LB can be exploited.   Definitely worth 60+ +210 & 80+ +500 0.5U alt lines too imo. Added to OP.   
 

Def don’t want Kelce at that number esp with Mahomes unconfirmed (80% chance he plays but it's not 100 percent now).   CIN DC Amarauno is a smart guy and IMO he’ll look to crowd the short stuff out with Kelce and challenge Mahomes.   

Edited by Broncofan
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Along with Kittle’s omission I forgot to add the YOLO D-Smith 110+ yard 0.5U apt line play.  Added.

Time for the TD card….

 

WEEK 21 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP LONGSHOT TD PROPS 

Kyle Jusczyk +1400 FD 0.5U - you know the drill.   So close last week.   

Juan Jennings +800 FD 0.5U - slot matchup against PHI secondary the best for SF so those odds make 0.5U worth it.  

Quez Watkins +800 FD 0.5U - same deal on flip side SF secondary vulnerable to deep shot.  

Will almost certainly be willing to take a boost on Hurts or Kittle TD solo plays (not both together lol).  

Justin Watson +1200 FD 0.5U - pocket Mahomes mostly short stuff but a boundary deep ball more likely too.   That’s Watson.  Worth 0.5U 

Samaji Perine +500 / +5000 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - see prop write up.  

Will almost certainly take Chase / Kittle solo TD boosts.   

 

So that’s 3U for TD, 21U in player props and 4U in ATS / ML plays, for a total of 28U.   Definitely enough for now. BOL! 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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There is no doubting the connection and trust between Purdy and Kittle. Def agreed there. I never bet against SF so I'll skip your Eagles plays 😉

 

 McKinnon is the guy I like for KC this week.. he played 65% to Pacheco's 35% last week, just for whatever reason never got a target in the pass game. (I hardly watched that game)

 

Against Cincy's d, there should be plenty of underneath stuff and check downs. His receiving o/u is higher than I expected though, 31.5. Rec+rushing is 58.5. What do you guys think?

Edited by adamq
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2 hours ago, adamq said:

There is no doubting the connection and trust between Purdy and Kittle. Def agreed there.

 

 McKinnon is the guy I like for KC this week.. he played 65% to Pacheco's 35% last week, just for whatever reason never got a target in the pass game. (I hardly watched that game)

 

Against Cincy's d, there should be plenty of underneath stuff and check downs. His receiving o/u is higher than I expected though, 31.5. Rec+rushing is 58.5. What do you guys think?

I would stay away from McKinnon's rushing props. Receiving props, yes.

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On 1/23/2023 at 5:13 PM, Broncofan said:

PHI -2.5 2U -  IMO same deal here.  I think it gets to -3 and might even cross over.  

FWIW some dude on twitter that supposedly has connections to NFL officiating and has picked every 49er game correctly this season said bet the house on SF.

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23 hours ago, adamq said:

There is no doubting the connection and trust between Purdy and Kittle. Def agreed there. I never bet against SF so I'll skip your Eagles plays 😉

 

 McKinnon is the guy I like for KC this week.. he played 65% to Pacheco's 35% last week, just for whatever reason never got a target in the pass game. (I hardly watched that game)

 

Against Cincy's d, there should be plenty of underneath stuff and check downs. His receiving o/u is higher than I expected though, 31.5. Rec+rushing is 58.5. What do you guys think?

It's so hard to determine what will happen w/ KC due to Mahome's ankle. I honestly have no clue what to do in this game from the KC perspective.  I did take Schuster u46.5. Averaging 28 over his last 4 games and only 9 catches total. Seems like a trap but w/ that limited production combined w/ Mahome's ankle, it seems like a good play for me. Thinking about taking the under on almost all passing props for KC that I get involved in but it seems wrong to do for obvious reasons lol. I think I might wait until later to make more prop bets for this game although I wouldn't expect we hear anything about his ankle until we see him on the field.

Definitely like the Who Deys to cover and think Perine might be used more frequently due to how well he did against them earlier this year. Would keep Mixon more fresh for the game as well if they do indeed rotate them more frequently. Perine torched KC earlier this year

Edited by BobbyPhil1781
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21 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I would stay away from McKinnon's rushing props. Receiving props, yes.

I say this because McKinnon’s strength is receiving. However, after rewatching the week 13 match up, neither team were focused on stopping the run, allowing for all backs to find success against light boxes. KC averaged 5.5 YPC, while CIN was at 4.5. 

As @Broncofan already noted, I like Perine over 17.5 rushing yards. With the OL in terrible shape, Perine has seen snaps increase as the de facto pass blocker. I think he’ll only need 3 or 4 carries. Same idea with receiving yards. 

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15 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

It's so hard to determine what will happen w/ KC due to Mahome's ankle. I honestly have no clue what to do in this game from the KC perspective.  I did take Schuster u46.5. Averaging 28 over his last 4 games and only 9 catches total. Seems like a trap but w/ that limited production combined w/ Mahome's ankle, it seems like a good play for me. Thinking about taking the under on almost all passing props for KC that I get involved in but it seems wrong to do for obvious reasons lol. I think I might wait until later to make more prop bets for this game although I wouldn't expect we hear anything about his ankle until we see him on the field.

Definitely like the Who Deys to cover and think Perine might be used more frequently due to how well he did against them earlier this year. Would keep Mixon more fresh for the game as well if they do indeed rotate them more frequently. Perine torched KC earlier this year

FWIW the likely outcome is Mahomes plays.   But there still is a path where the swelling becomes so bad or there’s a setback that he doesn’t.   This changes the gamescript a ton.   KC can still win but the gameplan changes depending on who’s in.    That’s why it’s hard to take any KC props right now.   You’re not getting enough of an edge in taking props early to justify even a 10-15% chance the game plan changes drastically.  
 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

FWIW the likely outcome is Mahomes plays.   But there still is a path where the swelling becomes so bad or there’s a setback that he doesn’t.   This changes the gamescript a ton.   KC can still win but the gameplan changes depending on who’s in.    That’s why it’s hard to take any KC props right now.  
 

 

I'm 1000% sure Mahomes is going to play but one of his best traits, pocket mobility and escapability, will undoubtedly be hampered and might be completely gone. If I were to guess, I'm thinking it's going to be a lot of (if not 100%) shotgun snaps, maybe a step or two back, and then wait to see if there's pressure and if it is, that ball is coming out quickly. The fact it's his plant leg also leads me to believe we might see some inaccuracies especially if he's not practicing on it to see how it will affect his throws.

IMO, KC's OL is going to have to play their absolute best against this Bengals D to give him an adequate amount of time. Than factor in Lou seems to play KC so incredibly well. The only two things I like about KC props now are him u273.5 passing and the Juju play I talked about earlier. I just think it's going to be a real challenge for KC to survive playing like that and if his ankle is that bad, I wouldn't be shocked if we see Henne at some point which will obviously drive down his passing yards.

I'm very bad at gambling as I've learned but I'm still getting better so don't listen to me. The opposite will likely happen, minus him playing lol. That will definitely happen... just how much?

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8 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I say this because McKinnon’s strength is receiving. However, after rewatching the week 13 match up, neither team were focused on stopping the run, allowing for all backs to find success against light boxes. KC averaged 5.5 YPC, while CIN was at 4.5. 

As @Broncofan already noted, I like Perine over 17.5 rushing yards. With the OL in terrible shape, Perine has seen snaps increase as the de facto pass blocker. I think he’ll only need 3 or 4 carries. Same idea with receiving yards. 

You are in a better position to comment but DC Amarumo seems like he’d take away the short pass game and stack the box against the run if he was convinced Mahomes was a statue.   Unlike JAX who still played to prevent the deep shot even when it was clear that wasn’t how Reid adapted to the injury.     It’s why I would avoid any rush props for now for sure. 
 

When we bet we’re looking for edges of maybe 10-20 percent over a line that’s off.    When I go alt line it’s because I believe there’s a 65-70 percent chance the main line hits.   But that’s it.  It’s not like I think it’s a lock.   So having Mahomes only 80+ percent likely to play - it cancels any edge I might see by the risk the gamescript being completely different.   Why the only prop I take early is the CIN ML or CIN player props.  

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2 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I'm 1000% sure Mahomes is going to play but one of his best traits, pocket mobility and escapability, will undoubtedly be hampered and might be completely gone. If I were to guess, I'm thinking it's going to be a lot of (if not 100%) shotgun snaps, maybe a step or two back, and then wait to see if there's pressure and if it is, that ball is coming out quickly. The fact it's his plant leg also leads me to believe we might see some inaccuracies especially if he's not practicing on it to see how it will affect his throws.

IMO, KC's OL is going to have to play their absolute best against this Bengals D to give him an adequate amount of time. Than factor in Lou seems to play KC so incredibly well. The only two things I like about KC props now are him u273.5 passing and the Juju play I talked about earlier. I just think it's going to be a real challenge for KC to survive playing like that and if his ankle is that bad, I wouldn't be shocked if we see Henne at some point which will obviously drive down his passing yards.

I'm very bad at gambling as I've learned but I'm still getting better so don't listen to me. The opposite will likely happen, minus him playing lol. That will definitely happen... just how much?

I’m 1000 percent sure Mahomes plays if he can weight bear.   But remember that’s not a given with HAS.   We just saw Ryan Tannehill play vs. LAC with the injury then miss 3 games which were must-win & let Josh Dobbs / Malik Willis play.   Including the sudden death game.     
 

If there’s any way Mahomes can play he’ll do it.  But HAS isn’t a 100 percent guarantee you’re ready.   Until I see him moving around still have to factor in some uncertainty.    Vegas likely is (along with heavy CIN action obv).  

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