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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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I've taken Cincy with the points tonight. I think it's a toss up game. Could see the Browns winning by a field goal or Cincy winning on the road.

 

Dallas (-5) over Atlanta. I think the Cowboys will blow them out at home.

I like the over in the Pats/Seahawks and Vikings/Colts games

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2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I actually agree with this, though I’d hate to admit it. I’m staying away from the spread and sticking with props. If Atkins were back I would be singing a different tune, but we’re really thin on the interior. Also, I don’t think the OL injury is a big deal. It’s a lateral move. 

Yeah Sua-Filo isn't great, but it's also the depth trickle down effect.   Don't get me wrong, I love where the Bengals are heading - but a week 2  4-day prep time for a rookie QB, no matter how promising, with the run game / pass rush inequities that go CLE's way, I won't be doing this that often, but CLE as a favorite I'll back tonight.

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2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

SF line moving from -7 to -6.5

That’s a bit concerning for SF fans.

@N4L What’s the read here, pal?

Well for starters its a 10am pst start, which is typically an issue for west coast teams.

Niners offense struggled last week, especially the passing game. Garoppolo was not sharp. Bad reads, bad throws, bad pocket presence. Not a lot of positives. WR group is injured/unproven/not very talented. Kittle is hurt and might not play. Jets defensive line is big and strong, which is the type of line that can give us some issues. We had our third string center and a RG who is really our swing tackle playing for us last week (getting 2nd string C back, and hopefully the RG improves, he played well for us there last year). Jets run D is pretty stout, buffalo didnt get a lot going with their RBs last week in that department despite having a 21 point lead basically the entire game

Those are the reasons I could see someone using to justify +7. I think anyone taking the jets here is nuts lol 

We should be getting brandon Aiyuk back this week, he looked incredible during camp from what I heard. He should really help open up things as I think he is a legit deep threat, and can also take a quick slant to the house. I think we will get the ball into his hands early, he could have 10-13 targets I would imagine. That should really help open things up. I also think we will be able to get our RBs to the edge, the jets D does not have enough speed to match. 

Our defense should completely dominate their offense. Darnold is the type of QB we eat for breakfast. Not mobile, gets rattled by pressure, turnover prone. That is a recipe for disaster against our DL.

Even with sherm out, they dont really have any great outside WRs to take advantage of that,, and sherms replacement (witherspoon) is very talented, but has mental consistency issues. Their best WR is a slot receiver, and we have one of the best slot CBs in the game. So that is a matchup that favors us greatly. 

I really think they are going to have troubles scoring. As bad as the matchup with the cardinals offense was for us last week, is how good of a matchup the jets offense is for us this week. 

The bottom line to me is that despite week 1 struggles from our offense, things should be better this week. I think our RBs will catch some passes out of the backfield, I think our outside stretch runs will work, I also think we will roll out garappolo and get him outside the pocket. 

I think the niners will be able to win by double digits, mainly because the jets arent going to get into the endzone. I am thinking I will bet both the niners -7 (if you get less than 7, buy the dip) and the under. I expect to win both but if the jets cover, its more likely its because the niners offense didnt score enough, at which point your bet will be covered with the under. Good chance to take both. might stagger them so that there is more on the -7, just because there is a chance the niners get a defensive touchdown to push the over

 

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44 minutes ago, Geezy said:

Rams -1 vs Philly

NYG +5.5 Vs Chi

Bills -6 vs MIA

GB -6.5 vs DET

Indy -3 Vs Minny

BMore -7 Vs HOU

Seattle -4 Vs NE

Thoughts?

 

Rams & GB I'd be worried about - simply because PHI lost with no Lane Johnson, Miles Sanders, and a limited Reagor on O.  They also pressure the QB, and defend the run well - and that's how you expose Goff.     I'm staying away from that match.

GB looks like a huge mismatch - but keep in mind it's a divisional match, and they know each other really well.   The X factor IMO is if DET can simply keep up with A-Rod, realizing that their secondary is decimated.   Remember that DET always seems to play GB tough.  I'd expect a GB W, but man, it's tough to lay that many points.

The rest I'm with you on, barring injury etc.

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55 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

This is what worries me the most. That effects the run and passing game.

If Kittle is out, do you still feeling as though you have the means to cover confidently?

With brandon aiyuk making his debut, yes. He should give us big play ability - both with deep routes, quick passes where he can run after the catch, and with jet sweeps. We didnt have anyone who could run jet sweeps last week, but this is an area he should help us get to the edge, which is where I believe the jets run d is weakest. 

The deficiencies in the passing game were as much about garoppolo not pulling the trigger/not seeing guys as much as anything else. There were guys open and Jimmy wouldn't see them. I think kyle will have something ready for greg williams and the offense should be able to score enough points/have enough big plays to win by double digits. 

Its as much about the fact the jets are going to have a really, really tough time scoring on Sunday as well. I just dont see a path for them to have success on that side of the ball. 

The concerns you are expressing are part of the reason I think the under is in play here, even if its a low number. 

 

Here is another thing to consider, the Bay Area finally has normal air quality again. We were practicing in smoke levels that were hazardous and last weeks game honestly should not have happened when it did. It was horrible. We were practicing in it for a few weeks because we had no other options. So now that the smoke is gone, we can have normal practices and I think our team will look better because of it. maybe im reading too much into it, but I feel like it had to have modified practice schedules

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36 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

GB looks like a huge mismatch - but keep in mind it's a divisional match, and they know each other really well.   The X factor IMO is if DET can simply keep up with A-Rod, realizing that their secondary is decimated.   Remember that DET always seems to play GB tough.  I'd expect a GB W, but man, it's tough to lay that many points.

If Golladay was playing I'd agree with you, but his loss makes the difference for me. I don't see how Detroit can stop Green Bay given they are absolutely decimated at CB. That leaves a pretty good pass rushing unit to tee off on Stafford (who I like a lot). 

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Can't say I love SEA -4

5 or 6 point win is much more unlikely than a 3 point win and NE will chew clock and I think SEA might do as well against weak Patriots front 7. 

 

MIN +3 is the best line to me, don't understand that line at all.

Gimme LV +5.5 and DET +6.5 as well.

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47 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Rams & GB I'd be worried about - simply because PHI lost with no Lane Johnson, Miles Sanders, and a limited Reagor on O.  They also pressure the QB, and defend the run well - and that's how you expose Goff.     I'm staying away from that match.

GB looks like a huge mismatch - but keep in mind it's a divisional match, and they know each other really well.   The X factor IMO is if DET can simply keep up with A-Rod, realizing that their secondary is decimated.   Remember that DET always seems to play GB tough.  I'd expect a GB W, but man, it's tough to lay that many points.

The rest I'm with you on, barring injury etc.

Great points, i appreciate the feed back!

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I took the over boyd 51 yards tonight. I dont love it, but I think he gets more run this week as the bengals try and get the ball out of burrows hands early

sneed had a nice week in the slot last week. AJ green will get a lot of attention from the defense

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